Long before Russian forces invaded, it was understood they outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces. So when Ukrainian troops managed early on to roll back a good deal of that invasion, force hopes were initially high. They could quickly finish the job. It's not worked out that way. And now new reporting tonight that there's growing concern among Western allies about Ukraine's counteroffensive and its fate. In a moment, we'll talk to a retired three star general for his take. But first, the exclusive reporting from CNN's Jim Sciutto, who joins us now. So what are you hearing from your sources about what they believe Ukraine's prospects are right now? A markedly negative term, Anderson. And these are sources I've been speaking to since the start of the counteroffensive. But even going back to the start of the war and expectation of this counteroffensive were quite high. Going back just a few weeks ago. But in recent weeks, as Ukrainian forces have encountered really intense Russian defenses in the east and the south, three lines of defensive lines, defensive belts, as they're known with trenches, as you're seeing there, tens of thousands of mines. Ukrainian forces have not proven able to break through those lines. They've encountered staggering losses. I'm told both in terms of killed in action and wounded in action. And Ukrainian commanders in response to that, understandably, have pulled back some of those units to to save some of those casualties. And while even a few weeks ago, the hope was that over time they'd be able to break through, more recently, The assessments, both on this side of the Atlantic, but also in Europe, have been that they don't quite see the opportunity. So that hope has faded, not entirely faded. But it is certainly become a much less hopeful outlook for their prospects for success and gaining back significant territory. This also takes into account I mean, there were a large number of Ukrainian forces trained for for a length of time by U.S. forces in in combined weapons tactics and movement. That still has not been able to deal with the trench system, the mining, the defensive system that Russia had time to set up. No, and what I'm hearing is that the expectations may simply have been too high. When you look at the training for some of these newly supplied Western weapons, for instance, German leopard tanks, you're seeing maybe eight weeks of training. That is not a lot of time. And the thinking is from speaking to military officials, also diplomats, is that the idea of turning Ukrainian armed forces into a capable credible, mechanized fighting unit in that short length of time may have been a bridge too far, that even with advanced Western weapons and training from the best in the business. Right. That the timeframe was short and that even for the best U.S. combat brigades months, years of training still make it difficult to break through these kinds of lines. So with weeks of training, it just may have been too high a hope. You also mentioned your reporting, the Western officials fear this slow counter-offensive could cause a gap among Ukrainian officials. What is what's the concern? Well, you're already hearing it, right. I was in Aspen for the security forum just a couple of weeks ago. The Ukrainian president spoke there. And at the time he said, listen, we'd like to have proceeded more quickly, but we didn't get the weapons and the training soon enough, pointing some fire, as it were, at the West for not moving quickly enough to support this counteroffensive. And you're hearing more of that. And a concern is that the unity of of the alliance, both among Western partners in Naito, but also with their Ukrainian partners, that the blame game emerges as one official described it to me. And that's a problem, right? Because unity is important, not just in terms of standing up to Russian aggression in Ukraine, but also mean maintaining political support, military support, etc.. A lot of this is bubbling up under the surface, and the fear is that it bubbles up above the surface and creates divisions that make it more difficult to provide that support going forward. Fascinating reporting. Thank you. Thank you. Concerning, obviously, CNN military analyst and retired Army Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He's been following developments closely, tweets extensively about what goes on into a successful military operation, how this one differs from the standard Western model. Also with us, William Taylor former ambassador to Ukraine. General Hertling, the idea that there are staggering losses and difficulty and inability to break through the multiple defensive lines that Russia has set up in that, that does not sound good. It doesn't sound good to the uninitiated. Anderson. And but you remember, you and I talked about this multiple times dating back to the April, March, April timeframe where I suspected when you're talking about a force that's going on the offensive for the first time with a very large conventional force with new weapons With soldiers who have been reconstituted. And we're talking about Ukraine now with tactics they haven't used before. They haven't completely transformed the military against the kinds of things that Russia has put in place over an eight month period of time. Remember, Russia started mining and and setting trenches starting back in October of last year. So they had about eight or nine months to set the defensive conditions. And it's just very difficult. So what you have right now is a Ukrainian unit an offensive between nine and 12 combat arms brigade over a very large front, between 406 hundred miles equal to the distance between Washington and Boston that they're attacking against against an enemy who has had eight months to prepare three extensive obstacle belts That's tough. I have tried to do that when the enemy is just setting up obstacles in a day's time. And when I say enemy, I'm talking about the opposing force. At our training centers. And any brigade commander will tell you this mission, an offensive against a defending enemy is the toughest one that there is. I failed multiple times. I watch multiple U.S. brigades fail in this kind of mission, learn tough lessons and try and reapply it. So it's just very hard. This is combat. And truthfully, as much as Ukraine wanted to turn into a desert storm like force from the very beginning, when you're talking about the offense, it's much different than the defense that they had for the first couple months of the of the conflict. Ambassador Taylor, how concerned are you about this So, Anderson, we were in in Kiev last month and the month before the foreign minister made the point that others have made as well. And that is this is not the last battle. The Ukrainians are in this for the long term. They hope they can end it soon. They hope they can do the breakthrough, by the way. Their earnings. Exactly right. The line from Washington to Boston, that's the line. And the Ukrainians only have to find one place along that line to break through, whereas the Russians have to defend everywhere along that line. So so the Ukrainians know that they what they need to do. They know it's hard. They also know that there's more weapons coming. They know the aircraft are coming. They don't have their air right now. And again, if they don't win this battle, they'll win the next one. And if they don't win that one, they'll keep fighting, Anderson. They are not giving up. So, General Hertling, I mean, was it a mistake to devote the time to try to retrain forces in new methods? I mean, I read one account that said, you know, if they were able to break through those lines, those kind of combined movement operations, I don't know the exact term for it, but, you know, you know, smaller units making decisions not sort of the huge hierarchy and also moving in conjunction with artillery, with air support and things like that, that if they were able to break through somewhere, those new tactics would be beneficial. Yeah, it's a mix, Anderson. You know, I've said for a long time that the United States can't in part and the Western forces can't in part their way of war on a Ukrainian force that truthfully has a post-Soviet bias. They grew up in the Soviet force where artillery was king. So truthfully, they wanted this new equipment. They wanted to transform their ground force. They are taking the first steps. And like Ambassador Taylor, I believe they will eventually get there. They're not there yet. This is a hard fight. I mean, there's no other way to put it. And all of the Western analysts that that Jim was quoting a minute ago, I would bet none of the people he he's talked to have been on the battlefield attempting to do the kinds of things the Ukrainian force is trying to do right now. I agree with Ambassador Taylor. Ukraine is going to continue to win this fight, but it is not going to be a quick victory because combat is not a video game. So how do you so how does a force evolve? I mean, in this situation, is it more training? Is it the new weapons that the ambassador was talking about? Is it going back to tactics that may have worked for them before? I think it's a little bit of a mix. They will continue to use artillery. We have given them the cluster munitions that will help. They won't be a game changer, but it will be ammunition that they can use against defensive position. But they are also learning as they grow, too, Anderson. You know, our training centers, we say we learn and grow every day and even kind of absconds that, the fact that we're failing on many times and getting scar tissue. The Ukrainians are learning how to conduct operations against these very intense and complex obstacle belts. They will continue to learn and grow. They will find ways to overcome. They have a good morale and their force. They have great leaders, things that the Russians do not have. Ambassador Taylor, there was this Ukraine peace summit in Saudi Arabia last week. China opted to send a delegation. Any take away from that, in your opinion? The Chinese showing up for that is amazing, Anderson. That's a demonstration that the Chinese are, I think, starting to edge away, trying to edge away from Europe, from the Russians. I mean, they know. So the Ukrainians, that was Ukrainian idea to have this have this summit And the Chinese know it and all the other 41 nations know it. They know that the Ukrainians are going to make the presentation that President Lynskey has made. And it says once the Russians are out of their country, they'll sit down and negotiate. And territorial integrity, which means Russians out of the country was agreed by all of those nations, apparently, according to the discussions.
