You think it's safe to say that Putin has sided with his military leadership, with Shoigu, with grass him off, at least for now? And do you think that that is a mistake by Putin You know, Alex, this is so compl Yes, it's a mistake. Bottom line. But precaution is a symptom of a He is not the disease himself. Mr. Putin's government and the way he uses his military and the graft and the corruption of guys like Shoigu and Gareth, some of who have been there for over a decade or more, the disease itself, it is just symbolic of what is h So when you're talking about try to address these issues and to fix these things, Mr. Putin just cannot do it because this is this is inlaid within the government that is a kleptocratic authoritarian state that is not interested at all in conducting military operations properly or government activities properl Matt, I keep thinking about the rank a Russian soldiers in the trenches in Ukraine. How do you think this impacts the morale of those Russians in And then conversely, how does Ukraine take advantage So I think the average soldier in the trenches under no illusions that the war is being badly mana The leadership is terrible and is not looking out for their well-being. So the fact that Prigozhin is bringing this not very well-kept secret out into the light does not have much impact on the day to day struggle of the Russian soldiers fighting in the trenches for his own survival. And as far as how this how this plays out, when you've got Shoigu still sitting in his office in M and now Prigozhin is off to Bela or are elsewhere. So I imagine that showing is probably perceived as safe for the near term. And then precautions not to pick up the p and figure out how to move on fr Bianna, we have talked about this sprawling Wagner empire and talk about the threat of Wagner ceasing to exist. How much do you think what he's now is motivated by his business interests and his own personal gain? I think quite a bit Alex. I mean, this to him and he's rig is an existential threat in taking Wagner away from him, which is why it was the final st and why he really lashed out the way he did. The problem was there was really no plan B, and I think he was quite surpris that he and Viognier were able to get as far as they did, both in Rostov and obviously in route to Moscow That having been said, Wagner, which was a creation of Vladimir This is not a private mercenary but rather an arm of the GRU has for years worked to Putin's benefit as sort of a plausible deniability operation that was generating a lot of mon outside of Russia as well, in Africa in particular And that had made Evgeny Prigozh a very rich man. That having been said, he he is very popular among the Wagner fighters, which is why you've seen, at lea according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, he's attested that only one or 2% of them have actually signed up to go work for the Ministry of D He claims that he still has a lot of these fighters, well-trained and well armed figh at that supporting him. And Jill, there have been some questions about whether promotion was being charged. Russian state news is now reporting that the criminal case against Prigozhin, quote, did no How do you see the situation? Well, I think, once again, the obfuscation about what really is going on kind of covers all bases. We we really don't know. I think the most dangerous thing Putin will be that appeal that P has kind of a populism against the elites, because Putin is the elites, his government is the elites. And so does he take care of them Does he keep the defense minister in place? Does he fire him? These are the things that we're It won't happen right now, but it could happen down the roa And this is really destabilizing and very threatening to the enti that Putin has.
