(bomb swooshing) - [Narrator] After
months of brutal fighting in the country's east, (bomb blasting) Ukraine is preparing
for its much anticipated counter-offensive against Russia. - Dear Warriors, the main battles are coming soon. (speaking in foreign language) (gun shooting) - [Narrator] Since Ukraine's
battle plans are confidential, little is definitively known about the coming counter-offensive but military experts agree
the stakes couldn't be higher. - Everyone's been expecting
it, waiting for it. We dunno exactly when
it's going to happen. We dunno exactly where
it's going to happen. - They've got to look at
this counter-offensive the way a pool shark
looks at a pool table. He's not only trying to sink the ball but he's also trying
to set his cue ball up for a subsequent shot. - [Narrator] Here's the
situation on the ground right now and what to expect on the battlefield. Since the war began in February of 2022, Russia has focused its
offensives almost exclusively on the east of Ukraine in what's
known as the Donbas region. - The offensive hasn't been
particularly successful. They've lost thousands of troops. (bomb chinging) (bombs blasting) They've been using
brutal tactics, shelling, destroying whole districts. - [Narrator] After heavy fighting, the city of Bakmout is
now under Russian control, Moscow's first major
conquest since last summer. Russia now occupies 17%
of Ukrainian territory, a stretch of land mass roughly equivalent to the size of Iceland. (bomb blasting) - But the Ukrainians are still there. So the moment what we have is something like a a violent stalemate. (gun cocking) - So far, Ukraine's success,
(grenade blasting) and Russia's comparatively poor performance on the
battlefield has surprised analysts. - The Russians expected
Kiev to fall in a few days. They weren't expecting to fight a war. They were expecting to be
marching in a victory parade. - [Narrator] Mark Kimmitt is retired US Army Brigadier General, who served in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Iraq. - Very early on, it was
clear that the Russian forces not only did they not have the tactics, their equipment proved
incapable of doing that. And candidly, the
Ukrainians surprised us all with both their tactical ability and their equipment as well. (tanker engine rumbling)
(bomb blasting) - We will never submit to
any foreigners or colonizers. That's why we fight - [Narrator] From the
beginning of the war, Ukrainian President, Zelenskyy, made it clear that his aim is to liberate all Ukrainian territory including Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine that were first occupied in 2014. - That seems an unlikely goal
for the immediate defensive (bombs clanging) (bomb blasting) because that's a big ask. That's a lot of Russian troops, you know, who are well dug in. - We do not have that much artillery but we do stay strong because we
do have troops on our side. - Western weapons have
been trickling into Ukraine since the start of the war. More recently, there's been a steady
escalation of deliveries. (tanker gun cocking)
(gun shooting) - Its own Soviet stocks
have been supplemented by large supplies of weapons from the West and these are included long-range rocket artillery systems called HIMARS. (bomb blasting) More recently, you've had the West has provided battle tanks. - Hopefully they've got
enough armored vehicles and enough tanks to make that punch necessary for a counter-offensive. But most important, they're going to need the
intelligence from drones, perhaps from satellites, to get a good idea of the weakest
point of the Russian front because naturally that's
where they want to attack - [Narrator] Ahead of
its counter-offensive, Ukraine has been carrying
out drone attacks. The aim is to weaken the Russians ahead of the broader ground campaign. The current frontline stretches 900 miles from the south of Ukraine
all the way around the east up to the Northeast. That's roughly the equivalent distance between New Orleans and Chicago. - So I don't think anybody,
at this point, can predict the likely attack routes but they certainly can predict a number of attack routes
that they would use. - [Narrator] General Kimmitt
envisions four likely scenarios that the Ukrainian forces might attempt to kick off their counter-offensive. - Well, I think the
first avenue of approach I think the most obvious counter attack would be from Kherson over
towards the sea of Sea of Azov. It would have a significant tactical value because it would cut this land bridge that is so vital to the Russians between Crimea and to the
rear of the Russian forces, not only for logistics purposes but to demonstrate to the world that the Russians own all that area between Crimea and Luhansk. The second likely attack routes would be from Zaporizhzhia down to Berdyansk. It has very good roads that
make a counter offensive easier to operate with wheeled and track vehicles which
will be critical to this war. I think the third attack route would be through Donetsk down to Mariupol. It wouldn't have the tactical value as much of cutting that land bridge because the land bridge would remain open between Crimea and a significant amount of the Russian forces. But the strategic communications
value of retaking Mariupol, that city where the Ukrainians encountered probably their biggest defeat, I don't think you can overstate the value of retaking Mariupol and
getting into the Russian minds that they have encountered
a significant defeat. The last option, I think that
the Ukrainians would have would be attacking due east from Kharkiv to right in through Luhansk. That would have a
significant strategic effect because you now would be
on the borders of Russia and that would be sending a clear message to the Russian people that the Ukrainians are able to take back much of the land that they lost in 2014. - [Narrator] Despite the Ukrainian's impressive battlefield record thus far, Kimmitt is cautious about
making optimistic predictions. (gun shooting) - I don't believe that the Ukrainians will be able to achieve a complete routing of the Russians such
that they would withdraw from both Crimea and the Ukraine. And candidly, I don't think, unless there's an absolute
collapse of the Russian forces, that that will happen in the next year. (taker rumbling) My major milestone is how deep do they get into Ukrainian territory. I'd like to see them
get as far as the water. (gun shooting) They've got to decisively
defeat the Russians for this to be a
successful counter attack. And it's got to be successful enough that it will continue to inspire the West to provide material and equipment for the next counter attack and the next counter attack after that because this certainly
will not end the war. - Ukrainian officials have also been quite keen to play down the sort of, the larger aims of the offensive. They recognize that it's not the case that they'll suddenly be able to take back all of Ukrainian Ty just
from this offensive. They see this as one offensive,
the next phase in the war. It's an important offensive, it's a critical offensive, but it's not the be all and all. (soft twinkling music)
