Putin ups the ante & counts on his trump, General Winter in a Europe reeling under inflation

foreign [Music] related documents carefully foreign delivered his long-awaited speech to his Nation addressed to his nation which if I may say so sounded a little bit desperate a little bit not quite defeatist but a little bit accepting of the inevitability that his War had stalled that he was a little bit on the defensive and now he was looking at consolidating or keeping whatever he's got so far which is almost I'd say at this point but 15 16 percent of Ukrainian territory so he said that if anybody tries to take this territory from me then I might launch nuclear weapons against them so now nuclear weapons have become a defensive weapon to keep what he has so it's a bit like if you remember that old song Mukesh song of self-pity question I think it was a 1959 film Raj Kapoor film the lyrics were written by my favorite Lyricist of all time shailendra so at one level it almost sounds like Putin if not valuing in self-pity but basically suing for peace on his own terms saying that let's stop the war here so whatever I've got let me keep it unlikely that ukrainians will let him do it but more importantly unlikely that Ukraine's backers that is the Western Powers particularly the Us and other countries in Europe will let him keep it this way so they will keep building the pressure on him now in that situation does Putin have any cards left all right he talked about he threatened the use of nuclear weapons so while he is held out in nuclear threat we know that nuclear weapons are never to be used we know that it happened once in the history of humankind but not again because if you use nuclear weapons the consequences are terrible of course for your victim the enemy the adversary who you use nuclear weapons against but also for yourself and for your people because his world is not going to be looking silently at any country today that uses nuclear weapons on the other least of all on a country which is for all practical purposes is a NATO and U.S protective that is Ukraine so leave that aside if you leave that aside does Putin still have some weapons left so you might remember that some time back maybe four or five months back we had an episode of karta clutter which had talked about the debate which had immersed in the western media about Putin using two generals in his Armed Forces General oil and general food grain what happened was as the war started and as Black Sea got blocked so first of all in any case because of the sanctions and the war and the disruptions Global oil prices went up crude oil prices went up now they moderated a little bit but they're still on the very high side but they moderated gas prices went up and then the sanctions started particularly on the Russian banking system Etc that created big problems around the world so one weapon in Putin's Arsenal was General oil so unless you let me have my way in Ukraine minus the sanctions without the sanctions be prepared to pay the price in terms of very expensive oil so that was General oil the second was General food grain that in case you don't force Ukraine to accept the ceasefire on my terms or accept my terms in any case I will not allow the evacuation of food grain from Ukrainian ports and Ukraine has been know between Ukraine and Russia they account for 70 percent of the wheat in global grain markets so that had stopped now that led to a big outcry particularly in African countries large African countries which import a lot of food grain particularly wheat but also Maize and they need that really badly because they are really short it would have been impossible for other countries to make up for it India used to sell some wheat overseas but last year India's Harvest also particularly in Punjab and haryana because of the early onset of Summer had not been that good so there was a global shortage finally because of this Global public opinion Russians had to relent so through a three-way agreement between Russia Ukraine and turkey this grain started going out turkey by one because turkey is the world's most consummate mediator right now particularly in the Eurasian region and second for anything to come into black sea or go out of Black Sea they have to use those passages which turkey controls so this was a U.N Sanctified Arrangement so General food grain then went out of the picture General oil remains in the picture but once again it would have looked like the world's getting used to it and maybe in the course of time the world will get will get more used to it because alternatives are emerging other sources are becoming available but you know what oil and gas are Global Commodities their Global Commodities so people may be Qatar Senegal gone up many of the other countries which have natural gas Australia they may be able to fill in for the shortages coming out of Russia but they will not give you at the same price as before so this is a global commodities prices go up so that is one situation that problem is not gone that problem is going to get get worse now and that's where Putin is looking at the most successful Russian general in the history of Modern Warfare when we say Modern Warfare they go as far back as to Napoleon's times and that is the third general which has as yet never failed the Russians and that is General winter now General winter is this deep Long Russian winter that is the old term that is where invading forces Napoleon Hitler Etc they get stuck their supply lines get stretched and their troops find it difficult to deal with that cold weather it's cetera Etc and then when the winter starts to lift and sort of the spring begins to come in that's when the Snows melt so there's piles of Snows that melts and that leads to the creation of heavy mud and that is where Armed Forces columns get stuck so that mud is also sometimes called rasputista and that's how the biggest army is the most successful armies against the most brilliant generals have been defeated in Russia now Russian winter you might say OK this is in Ukraine so ukrainians are as used to the Russian winter as the Russians are because it's the same landscape right if anything because Russians are Invaders they will suffer in Ukraine because of the winter and rasputista because it is their supply lines that are stressed so we are not talking about the battlefield there the battlefield for Putin for Ukraine is not in Ukraine it's all all over the world but particularly in Europe because it's much tougher for him to break America's will it's much tougher for him to break the rest of the world's will because if his instrument was food grain that is unworkable because Russia also is deeply caring or deeply concerned about its own image in Africa and also in parts of Asia so Russians are not going to push the food grain issue that hard but gas is something else and this is when winter is setting in in Europe and that's what makes the availability of a 21st century General winter to Putin so what is happening right now before we get there if I tell you a few things about what's happening in the countries of Europe because what Putin is trying he's trying to break Europe's will and he thinks that public opinion in Europe because all of the rest of Europe is democratic and he thinks that public opinion in these countries because public will get so fed up of having to pay a higher price for their heating winter energy gas electricity Etc that they will put pressure on their governments to reduce their support to Ukraine or in turn put pressure on Ukraine to settle on Russia's terms so he now sees an opportunity this is about the we are not coming to the end of September winter will be here about six weeks from now in those parts and he thinks now is the time that he's got a general winter in his hands because by next year if this goes on he may not have the same general available to him because by that time the world would have found Solutions around the problem but this is the first winter since the War Began and since the sanctions began so this is his opportunity now if you want to understand what this opportunity is like and what kind of what kind of Battlefield or what kind of ground conditions do this General winter is looking at the earlier ground conditions was snow minus to 25 30 degrees Celsius temperature Long Winter stressed supply lines and then the mud etc etc the ground or the terrain that this General winter is looking at is characterized by inflation rates all over the world but especially in Europe if you see Europe Europe has had welfare reason for a very long time Europe even those countries which have been run by conservative parties or right of Center parties or or even during the periods and the most right-of-center parties have run those countries like say for example Margaret Thatcher in Britain there is also a deeply ingrained welfareism there so citizens are looked after there is a lot of welfare state support Etc so people are no longer used to dealing with deep hardships over long periods of time in Europe that is where Americans are much tougher but Europeans are not so Europe is the soft underbelly of the Western Alliance and that is what Putin's looking at so the so what is this general what is the terrain this General winter is looking at it's looking at inflation rates I told you look at Germany and we are now just taking the movement over a year and you will see these Graphics run on my screen as I speak so Germany exactly a year ago that is August 2021 was 4.1 percent inflation which is at inflation rate of 4.1 percent in August last year one year back was also High by by the standards of it developed Western Country but all these developed Western countries led by the US the US is this is the most most important example they just printed money and distributed it free in one form or the other to their citizens to help them tied over the covet crisis that in turn created inflation because we just printed so much money that was 4.1 that is today eight percent or eight point one percent so it has doubled in a year for Germany eight point one percent little inflation is very high then UK was 3.1 percent again exactly a year back today it's 10 percent it's gone up more than three times again part of it is or primarily it is because they printed all this money during covid and distributed checks and distributed a kind of unemployment role or maybe for businesses that had shut down a kind of a dole but also now because food prices and energy prices are going up so you've seen Germany using Britain others are no better France 2.2 to 5.9 almost three times so 5.9 would today look like moderate inflation by today's standards inflation standards in the world but still it's three times of what it was last year in France in Spain it was four percent last year at this time it's 10.5 percent now it was 2.5 percent it's 8.5 percent now so Germany UK France Spain Italy we have listed for you the biggest European countries besides indeed Russia and Ukraine so all of these are reeling under inflation even the U.S U.S had nearly doubled from 5.4 to 9.1 they've now moderated a little to it per 8.3 because the U.S fed has been upping its rates quite aggressively but once again there is a problem in the US as well although you the US is not short of energy they've got their own but once again remember energy is a global commodity so the prices of all energy keep Pace globally so it's not as if Americans produce their own oil and gas so they will sell it cheaper because that is that is that is subsidizing their own consumer which means government has to print more money and that leads to more inflation now to understand this situation more accurately or better or more sharply we have to understand the explosive mix that this inflation rate already quite high and Rising this inflation rate the lot of distress with the lower middle classes with the middle classes and definitely with the poor that combined with high energy prices what an explosive mix this is now in this situation then you have the coming winter that Putin is hoping will provide the spark and there will be Street protests if nothing else there'll be a rise of the political right in these European countries and in these European countries by and large the political right is pro Russia or pro-putin now if you look at fuel price prices essentially gas prices natural gas prices in Germany Italy Britain the Netherlands gas prices are already 210 percent up since the War Began in Germany things are now so difficult the German government Olaf Schultz's government is thinking about putting a lot of people under housing welfare so their needs could be looked after at a minimal basis by the state because they think they'll not be able to survive on their meager incomes with this Rising energy costs then in in many of these countries this situation is also compounded by the fact that these countries because they are so politically correct and greens have become so powerful there that they decided to shift to Renewables which is a very good idea but how do we shift to Renewables it's more expensive you have to invest more in renewable energy you have to incentivize people to build renewable energy also European countries don't quite have the sunshine benefit or Sunshine advantage that countries like ours have with many many months of full sunshine in a year so it was it's been quite expensive for Europe European countries to make this shift to Renewables for that shift they've raised money by making energy more expensive for their citizens so energy already was expensive in these countries and now it's becoming even more expensive it had been made expensive because of higher tariffs to fund the shift to Renewables and now it becomes worse and that is why you we are now seeing this very very fraught statements coming out of the governments in Europe for example German interior Minister Nancy fazer she's been quoted as saying and I quote enemies of democracy are just uniting to abuse the crisis to spread doomsday fantasies fear and uncertainty now that fear will become more and more real as the winter comes in and gas prices and energy prices start going up now the situation in Europe is such that it looks like on all estimates that this this winter by this winter most households most middle class households will be spending 20 to 30 percent of their monthly expense only on energy because you know in the winter in extreme cold weather and extremely dark weather because you get so little of sunlight you need to consume a lot of energy to keep yourselves warm and to give yourselves a healthy working environment event now what can Europe do in the long run now long run is very far because in the long run the old line is that we'll be all dead or maybe in the long run all our problems will be solved so you see Europeans who are brave for example Ursula Wonderland who's the European commission president she says look we don't have to worry so much about the Russian gas our dependence Russian gas was 40 percent now it's down to nine percent European leaders are going to Algeria Qatar Senegal Congo Canada etc etc looking for gas but once again the issue is the same that even if they get the gas from there even if they've shifted from 40 Russian gas to six percent from some place the remaining 35 percent will come and that will cost according to International prices so once so much of the Russian gas is out of the markets Global prices will continue to be up now there are lots of things which are being done symbolically Eiffel Tower for example used to be little till 1am now it switches off lights at 11 45 how much power it saves I don't know but the fact is it's a symbolic message politicians also like to do messaging in Britain it's not being estimated that things will get so bad this winter that one in four households may decide not to heat their homes now which is terrible in British winter how people will manage that you can imagine and how irritated and how upset people will be with that in other parts of Europe especially Germany and I'll share a story from the Washington Post with you please see it look at the run on firewood suddenly people are talking of firewood firewood prices have gone up for oil prices had gone up already you know fire firewood prices are going up Suddenly chimney sweeps are in demand so chimney sweeps are being summoned to clean up chimneys that people haven't used now for many many years to burn wood and coal in there so that lead to more pollution more carbon dioxide emissions so once again think of the stupidity of this idea of shutting down nuclear power plants which in Europe have been completely safe where neighbors of Germany are successfully running nuclear power plants notably France but the Germany shuts it down under the pressure from the greens and then people run firewood in fact in Germany there are stories of firewood being stolen by the truckload from its forests as well so this is a kind of a desperate situation at a popular level so I see a lot of commentary saying that this can be a situation of winter rages when tens of thousands of people come out on the streets to protest which is just want Vladimir Putin wants to see now everybody is getting worried about this situation Olaf Schultz in Germany the German Chancellor he said for example that I think that people will struggle to cope with this these Rising Energy prices and he said this is becoming a social Tinderbox so he is worried as every other elected ruling party elected leader in Western Europe right now and why would the opposition leaders lose this opportunity so leader of the center right in Germany who is the preeminent opposition leader Friedrich Marsh was the preeminent opposition leader in Germany of the Christian Democratic Union party which is the kind of liberal conservative center right party so he says for example he he attacks the ruling party and ruling Coalition for shutting down the nuclear power plants under pressure from the green parties whose votes and whose seats they need to keep this Coalition in power so he says and I call out have these Germans actually gone crazy to shut down three nuclear plants that would be able to safely Supply to 10 million that is one crore households with electricity one crore is a lot of households anywhere but think about it in the context of a small population like Germany and then he goes on to say that this may this may please your green party base but it possibly does irrevocable damage and once again I'm quoting it causes coat possibly irrevocable damage to Germany's image as a business destination so the opposition is sharpening its knives we see this in country after country in Europe and Britain now let's trust the new prime minister has said that she'll try and freeze the energy prices if you do so and Global energy price is going up you will have to print more money and give subsidies which again feeds into inflation and Britain by the way is not that dependent on Russian gas Britain and has its own oil and gas Britain only buys four percent has been buying four percent of its gas from Russia but once again the same problem it doesn't matter where you buy energy from it is priced globally in global energy exchange is global commodity exchanges so once again wherever Britain gets its cash from it will still pay an elevated price in Italy in Italy Mario draghi these are his last days as as the leader then there'll be a general election so the country is in a very politicized mood so Mario draghi has almost his last act has given his industry a 14 billion Euro assistance to help them tied over their increased energy costs but once again his opposition Matthew salvini whose opposition who's his main opposition leader also from the right-wing party he's saying this is too high a price but what the hell are we doing this so the calculation Putin is now making is that that this will this crisis this Winter Rising prices popular distress particularly among the middle and lower middle classes the poor in any case but the lower in the middle classes the poor might still go to the left but the lower in the middle classes remember they were also the people who brought Trump to power so once they get angry then they turn far right and the far right in Europe is by and large Pro Russia so the far-right politicians the far-right parties in Europe is by and large Pro Russia and pro Putin it's a bit odd you would have thought that far right might be pro-america but they are not they are more anti-america and in this case more inward looking because today's right worldwide is more inward looking more xenophobic and more protectionist so they see they see no such great Merit in paying such a high price just to keep Russia out of Ukraine so that is what Putin is now looking forward to Putin is over hoping that come this winter as Europe suffers as the middle lower middle classes in Europe suffer and Europe's governments come under pressure either they themselves will make changes or the rise of the right in these states will bring about political changes and he will be able to win on the political Battlefield what he seems to be at least until now losing on the military Battlefield foreign [Music] [Applause] [Music]

Channel: ThePrint

Views: 164,792

Keywords: ThePrint, shekhar gupta, theprint india, theprint hindi, putin russia, ukraine russia war, russia oil and gas, russia gs supply to europe, russian winters, europe's inflation

Id: PIvPLcCZJ6g

Length: 24min 27sec (1467 seconds)

Published: Wed Sep 21 2022