Putin to visit Beijing for Belt and Road forum | DW News

it's 10 years since China launched its massive Global infrastructure project the belt and Road initiative this week representatives from more than a hundred countries are gathering in Beijing to discuss the scheme which has seen China lend billions of dollars to poorer Nations often with strict repayment conditions attached the initiative widely seen as a way for Beijing to assert its geopolitical might comes against the backdrop of the devastating conflict in Israel as well as Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine to talk more about the state of the project and how it could shape Chinese Russian ties I'm joined Now by China analyst Fraser Hoy Fraser good to have you with us a decade on how close is the belt and road today to what China originally envisioned well I think that's the the problem I'm not sure they they're ass sure themselves what they envisioned that we talk about the 10year anniversary and this is this is almost putting a a subst to after the fact because of course 10 years ago it wasn't the belt and Road initiative it was called one belt one road um and even before that it was really analum of a whole host of projects that China had been developing across the what was generally seen as the global South and trying to cement Global geopolitical relations and trade relationships so it's I think to call it a direct project as if this was some great plan that the Chinese had almost gives it too much uh too much credibility it was much more a hodg podge of different things coming together under effectively a marketing brand okay so this project is very difficult to Define it seems but we hear a lot about what it may mean for other countries I'm interested in the view from within China though especially against a backdrop of a slowing economy how do people there view this project I I think that's very important because of course 10 years ago the Chinese economy was much stronger the geopolitical position of China was much stronger the the the belon road initiative um was seen as a you know very much a a geopolitical force or or tool that China could use to help cement its relationships with many countries and of course it wasn't just infrastructure building it was also political tie-ups and hoping that these countries would follow China and its voting at the UN and things like that um and things have changed dramatically over the past 10 years I think two things are worth pointing out though that there's actually been a lack of really strong directives within China while there's lots of supporting documents there is no Grand policy of chines government instructing local governments or entities to go out and actively support the the belon road initiative and so therefore especially now there's a lot of caution from invest or uh from companies and local governments in China they're just much more cautious about you know spending a lot of money in Far Away places when they're struggling themselves so I wouldn't say it's opposition to the project but it is certainly being wound down or it's being wound back certainly because China simply doesn't have that much capacity to continue to fund these projects how does a winding down of a project like this look in concrete terms though I think it just means that less things are being built you know that this was very much China going out it was going to build Railways it was going to build roads it was going to build Bridges and ports um and that was going to happening in dozens if not you know over a hundred countries and what you'll see is a lot of that ambition is going to be scaled back that the size of the deals are smaller there's going to be fewer deals um and so that's what it simply means that China simply will not commit the same amount of time and effort and ultimately funding but a a key thing to remember here as well it's it's often being presented somehow this is China's gift to the to its trade Partners or the global south of the developing world and that's simply not true these are commercial loans that are being offered by China there's very little freebies being offered here and in fact there's generally a lot of um ties and and strings attached to these deals can you give us some concrete examples of some of these commercial loans going wrong well I think there there there's many cases and I I I I I think there's certainly some in West in East Africa there's some in Europe as well again where the Bas basally come uh the projects are simply not funding themselves you know if you build a port or if you build a road or a bridge and it's tools to basically fund the cost of that there simply are not enough people using it it's not basically got enough traffic um and so therefore those projects fail to get bring the return that they wanted now this is of course exactly what we saw in China domestically as well where there was a huge infrastructure build out with the belief that if you build it they will come that this will generate more trade this will generate more footfall more traffic Etc more toll and it's often not worked out like that in some areas it's worked very well but often when you get in China into the interior provinces or you get to parts of the developing World which are simply not rich enough you're simply not going to generate the returns which are going to pay back the huge cost of building a six Lane Highway you know in Sri Lanka say to from the airport to this uh the suburbs of the capital or indeed in macius again where they've built a huge airport and Expressway which simply does does have the traffic to justify the costs and this isn't only about uh physical infrastructure is a digital infrastructure is part of this project as well very much so so this is what I was saying there are strings attached this isn't just the case of china coming and saying I'm going to build a bridge for you or improve your road quality it's tying you into often Chinese um technology infrastructure which of course can be very appealing for countries which are very poor technology infrastructure but it does mean that China has has tremendous control over uh ultimately your Communications and we've seen this in particularly with Pakistan where China has taken tremendous control um over much of the the infrastructure in terms of Technology um in Pakistan and that has caused a lot of ill feeling and political problems domestically for that country so China likes to think itself as some this is all positive a win-win for all sides but it certainly causes a lot of domestic stresses as well for the recipient countries let's look more closely at geopolitics now President Putin has done very little foreign travel since the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant for him how significant is his appearance at this forum um I think it's very significant it very much uh is uh is China and Russia thumbing its nose at the West um and while China talks about neutrality and a peaceful solution it clearly is supporting Russia maybe not directly with arms but the very fact that it will host Russia that business continues and in fact Russia has become more dependent on China um it I think it sends a very poor signal for China's role in the world that it may dis like the current order but what it's basically ushering in is a period of disorder not a multi-polar world but a period of disorder where basically um countries like Russia are can have this adventurism and they'll know that China basically has their back so to some extent this is a mutually dependent relationship where would you say the balance of power is though it's very difficult to say I think everyone talks about Russia becoming a a vassel state of China um but the trouble is I'm not sure how much power China has to really influence Russia um I I think it was taken completely off guard by the Ukrainian Invasion um and if Putin had given them the heads up I think they they completely misunderstood what they were being told or Putin just didn't understand of course what he was getting into so it C you think China has the the driving seat because it's keeping the the Russian economy afloat but I think it's far more problematic than that because countries like Russia and I think you'll see probably with Iran and North Korea as well other countries that China's very close to are just going to continue to cause problems in their local regions which will have problems globally um and China is able to do very little and so it struggles and it talks about neutrality and everyone should be nice to each other and stop fighting but the reality is that China's s not facilitated but certainly is doing very little to to reign in some of these Rogue actors let's look at a concrete issue now Putin and she are reportedly planning to talk about the idea of settling debts in National currencies how significant a move would that be for the belt and Road more generally um this is always difficult to know ultimately who the hell we want to take your rubles you know it's all all talking about settling in your local currency um but you many of these countries have poor have weak currency is because the political and financial infrastructure is so poor even settling in R and B um the trouble there of course is that China is a restrict the REM is a restricted currency it's only basically used to buy things from China which is fine but effectively becomes almost like a barter form of relationship between the two countries um China of course has restricted their use of the MB literally for 30 years and certainly the currency is underused relative to size of the economy but this is is n a threat to the dollar the systems are operating very differently um I think though the Americans need to be careful that they don't weaponize the dollar too much I think one of the great strengths is that everybody uses it and everybody wants to use it I think actually Argentina is a better example which is again a Bel and road partner um has large swap lines um between Argentina and China and yet the the one of the leading politicians there is calling for dollarization and indeed they want to spend their REM because they don't want to spend their US dollars so there's still a lot of work and distance to go before China is anyway um threatening the dollar and The Current financial Arrangements the two countries have been strengthening their ties though recently how would you assess the economic relationship um obviously it is very strong Russia's become highly dependent on them China's made no uh no uh quams about buying continuing to buy Russian hydrocarbons you look at the trade balances they increase tremendously I think that's only going to increase uh whatever happens with the Ukraine war I think the the Russia's economic relationships are clearly going to change for many years to come so they're going to become ever more dependent on on China um although I think that will like say this these countries fundamentally don't trust one another they're they're commonality at the moment is a dislike of the West and a and an obsession about America um and I think ultimately they will run into problems as well because it is an uneven relationship um and uh and so it's it all seems all happy and all singing all clapping at the moment but there's going to be problems down the line I want to talk about another set of Representatives who will be at this event and that is the Taliban um what does this tell us about the kind of relationships China is forging as part of this project well look you've got to remember that the the Afghanistan is you know a n shares a border with China um and it's the Taliban runs Afghanistan that's just the reality and the Chinese when it comes to dealing with governments of basically no standards they will deal with whoever's in power um and so they are very worried that the Taliban that Islamic extremists will come over from Afghanistan um cause problems in shinjang we already know there's a cultural genocide being perpetrated there and and so China is it's a very real politic approach to dealing with governments in power um but again if they choose not to deal with the Taliban then you know what do you do they are a neighbor of Afghanistan not a problem the Americans had not the problem of the Europeans app but of course as well uh China is looking for uh raw mineral raw materials raw minerals and Afghanistan has many of those Commodities that China wants and it's going to try and exploit that relationship um and uh get access to those materials FR we have to mention as well that this meeting is happening under the shadow of a devastating conflict in Israel can we expect a statement from China about this at the Bon Road Forum um I I wouldn't neily expect too much from them they've already made relatively weak statements uh they didn't criticize herass in their original opening statement the Israeli Embassy in Beijing said they expected a stronger statement China has always tried to be a great friend to Israel and certainly wants a lot of Israeli Tech they've talked wangi their foreign minister talked just recently how Israel have probably gone too far um in terms of what it's doing to Gaz in terms of humanitarian crisis um so I don't think we're going to see particularly strong statements there again China is very reluctant to take sides even though they clearly do take sides as the Ukraine conflict has shown um they will come out and they will talk about reducing harm and reducing civilian casualties which in themselves are all very important things but I think this really shows the limit of China's geopolitical abilities well they can host large meetings in Beijing and bring everybody together and and fly everybody's flag and make everybody feel special the reality of China being able to change things on the ground whether it be in the Middle East or in Ukraine is very very limited what about the future though how do you see the belan road shaping China's Global influence say a decade from now yeah I think it is interesting clearly it's had you know in certain projects it's been very successful it's um it's expanded there which it's given them covered as it were or given them a purpose to go out and do many of these things I think though we should keep things in perspective as I say they they are running into problems with their own economy their ability to continue to fund this or want their willingness to fund is going to be limited because they're going to run into more and more problems in terms of uh just Capac capacity and the ability of these projects to pay um but they will try and milk it for all it's worth I think it's more publicity and I it gives them a banner to go in with and almost like a marketing Tool uh so in that sense they will it will continue uh but I wouldn't necess draw you know I don't think it's any magic wand or silver bullet to China's geopolitical ambitions

Channel: DW News

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Keywords: DW News, china, russia, belt and road, putin, xi jinping, beijing, moscow

Id: -sfQSrsWGxA

Length: 15min 0sec (900 seconds)

Published: Mon Oct 16 2023