Product Zeitgeist Fit and the Next Big Thing

because the death of most startups isn't because they don't get their tech to work or their competition out execute them the death of most startups is indifference they fail to launch because nobody care [Music] [Applause] so I know a lot of you are here because you're trying to figure out what's next and what the next big thing is going to be and that's great because that's my job so I want to share a tool that I use when I'm trying to figure out what's next and it's this idea of products I guessed fit so products that guys fit is when the product somebody is building is resonating with the mood of the times it's in the moment it's in the zeitgeist and it's important because that helps answer this kind of age-old question why about why some things especially in consumer tech just seem to work and other things just don't buy something that seems really weird and awkward like letting a total stranger sleep in your house can become this global phenomenon well something that seems really clever like a private social network just doesn't can also help explain why something that blew up in a bad way in one ERA like online pet food delivery can blow up in a really good way 15 years later and there's a lot of reasons for this but one underappreciated factor that has nothing to do with tech trends or the will of the founder or any of the common tropes you'll hear is simply whether it has product site-geist fit though the product is resonating with the mood at the times it's a cheat code for start-up success and for spotting what's next because when you have products that guys fit the product is resonating not because it's better that's product market fit it's resonating because it's connecting with something extremely culturally relevant at that exact moment in time for that exact part of the world it's got a line on something emotional not just functional and it turns out the best way to see the future isn't to look for what's working it's to look for what isn't working but people still really care about the things that are broken and terrible and frustrating but still inspiring energy and enthusiasm the things that are sitting in the zeitgeist that's what can help you see the future and if you're a founder it can help you build it and here's how the holy grail for startups is mainstream adoption and product market fit crossing the chasm from these weirdo early adopters into all the normal people but how do you get here how do you get to those weirdo early adopters because the death of most startups isn't because they don't get their tech to work or their competition out execute them the death of most startups is indifference they fail to launch because nobody cares not users or employees not investors certainly not the media nobody it's death by a thousand shrugs the product zeitgeist fit is what gives you a chance it gives you the momentum and energy and enthusiasm when you need it the most because it always happens right here at this moment when you see it it kind of feels like magic I want to be clear this isn't the end of the story this is the beginning of it you still need to cross the chasm into the mainstream and product market fit and functional use case and there's a defensible business model and all of that stuff but finding products I guess it is like getting a thousand extra lives as you try to play your way to product market fit because when you're riding the zeitgeist you're able to catalyze energy from the four forces you really need your first users your early employees angel and seed investors and the media that covers these weirdo ideas when those four people care about something and what somebody's doing impossible things suddenly become possible now I know this can sound really philosophical and theoretical so I want to walk through some examples of how this is played out in real life and how the product zeitgeist fit actually functions the first thing I want to walk through is crypto so in 2009 at the height of the financial crisis anger at Wall Street and the bank's spiked it entered the zeitgeist like a shot to the arm I'm sure a lot of you probably remember this at the same time you saw this declining trust in traditional largely centralized institutions and this has been something that had been happening for a while but really started to pick up speed then as the decade went on we saw this growing momentum to do something about the large platforms and companies that influenced so much about our lives and our experiences and our society those three ideas frustration with Wall Street distrust of institutions and for lack of a better term fanger gave crypto the opening it needed to get started gave it the energy enthusiasm and excitement and also funding to get the flywheel spinning because we've had a lot of attempts at internet money before but it was only in 2009 that we really found that spark and if you don't believe me look at the Genesis block of Bitcoin the first link in the chain that started everything the zeitgeist is etched right into it in the comments section Satoshi embedded a message about the financial bailouts and whether they meant it as a commentary on the financial system and all the injustice --is I don't know but a lot of people interpreted it that way and that ethos fueled a lot of the energy and excitement around crypto in those early years but here's the thing about crypto for the normal people for the mainstream it's still not that easy to use but despite that people are still using it people are still building on it people are still investing in it and the media is still covering it amazingly it's held products I guys fit for the better part of a decade which has given it this insane unfair advantage as its woven its way towards product market fit now I don't want you to think that this just works for like weird ideas like crypto this can apply to something is different from crypto as clean me now like the idea of Internet money the idea of a veggie burger is definitely not a new idea but it's something that's found a renewed enthusiasm in the last couple of years which we can unpack so on the one side you've seen this growing urgency to do something about climate change within a certain generation and a certain group of people and this is largely trickled down to the kind of individual level and it's inevitably led to this conversation about the Western diet and its impact on the problem at the same time you've seen this kind of moral and ethical issues with industrial farming kind of Baral their way into the zeitgeist and for a bunch of people it's been kind of disturbing now those two ideas industrial farming and climate change have given clean meat and the companies that are producing it the spark of energy they've needed to really help this idea take off this time and again you don't have to believe me ask the founder of impossible foods why they started it the zeitgeist led them right there does anybody tried one of these burgers and some of them are okay but some of them are just still disgusting but despite that people are still trying to buy them people are still working on it people are still funding it big companies are still trying to partner with them it's not better than me yet but it's got a great chance to get there thanks to the product zeitgeist fit the third idea and again this one's very different from the other two is the idea of income share agreements so for those of you don't know income share agreements or is a czar this financial instrument where someone usually a student gets something usually tuition in exchange for a share of their income going forward now like internet money and veggie burgers this is not a new idea but it's something that seems to have found its moment which we can unpack so on the one side you've seen the kind of explosion of student debt that's sloshing its way through our system and this has started to dominate conversations across traditional and social media it's even started to embed itself in our politics at the same time you've seen this declining trust in traditional academic institutions and this gets super charged with every admissions scandal a replication scandal or even just last week there was another marketing scandal these two ideas distrust of academic institutions and overwhelming student debt have given is a's and the companies and schools using them the lifts they need to help this idea take off this time and again there's a lot of things still to work out around consumer protections and regulation and returns to investors but despite that people are still working on it people are still talking about it people are still using them people are still trying to make it a thing I don't know if it has product market fit just yet but thanks to this it's got a really great chance to get there and there's these are just a few examples there's all kinds of things that are bubbling up in the zeitgeist today that really talented founders are building on top of whether it's privacy products or frustration with the attention economy and ad based business models whether it's like Marie Kondo and the decluttering of life for what humane tech and a new social network might look like the founders they're building on top of these ideas all have that same insane the unfair advantage today and today is important because just because something like a private social network didn't work eight years ago that definitely doesn't mean it couldn't work today now we've talked a little bit about what products I guess it is and why I think it's important but I also want to share how you can spot it in the wild and there's four tests that I use the first is what my partner Chris Nixon calls nerd heat and this is the idea that the most talented hardest-working most in-demand people the product managers and engineers and data scientists they're intrigued by it they're working on it they're excited by it they're using it they're trying to make it a thing because if they are there's a really good chance that eventually they'll make it happen the second is what I call the despite test people are using it despite the fact that it's not the best thing out there despite the fact that it's kind of clunky despite the fact that in some cases it's just straight terrible if they are that's a sign that it's got a line on something emotional not just functional and that's a great signal for products I guessed fit the third is the t-shirt test and this one's about Association if people are wearing t-shirts or hats or putting stickers on their laptops people that have no connection with the company or the project in any way that's a sign that it's as much a movement as a company and that's a great sign for product site-geist fit and the last is the eyebrow test things that have products I guys fit often feel misunderstood or controversial in the early days at first blush they raised a lot of eyebrows but to the people who have been working on them they're so clearly really elegant if temporarily imperfect solutions to really big problems now trying to figure out what has products that guyst fit is hard enough trying to figure out what's gonna enter the zeitgeist is like voodoo and probably unexplainable and I'm not even gonna try to do it but there are three things that I've noticed about what does enter the zeitgeist and I think it has an important implication for innovation these things tend to be generational they're reactionary and they usually organize around a really compelling villain and that means that the deceased is really dynamic and that's why there's always going to be an opening for innovators and disruptors especially in consumer tech because 2009 feels really different from 2019 so despite all the talk of unbeatable incumbents and ossification I'm optimistic about the next generation and because we always seem to react against the unintended consequences and excesses and blind spots of the previous generation if you live long enough you probably become the thing that drives the next wave of product sight guys fit and ultimately the next big thing so that's why if you're trying to figure out what the future looks like look for products that guys fit look for the things that are broken and terrible but people still really care about look for the four tests the raised eyebrows the t-shirts the nerd Heat and people using it despite itself look for the things that are reacting against the previous generation look for the things that are having their moment the product is resonating with the mood of the times because ultimately that's where the future lies it's right here at products that Geist fit thank you

Channel: a16z

Views: 34,520

Keywords: product zeitgeist fit, startup strategy, startups, entrepreneur, founder strategy, trendspotting, macro trends, product market fit, product market fit explained, startup go to market strategy, macro trends 2020, business startup strategy, entrepreneur ideas, startup advice and strategy, product market fit marc andreessen, a16z summit, a16z entrepreneurship advice

Id: uztjCqIgzsI

Length: 12min 57sec (777 seconds)

Published: Mon Dec 09 2019