Pro Card Counter Answers Casino Odds Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

I'm usually professional blackjack player and a former member of the MIT car counting team I'm here to answer your question from Twitter this is Casino Arts support [Music] first up I am roulette Stark what casino games has the best odds if you don't have any skills the best odds is by far baccarat you will lose about 50 cents for every 100 you put out if you play for a long time you still lose money it's still the least amount of money you can lose if you have no skills the best game out there if you do have skill I believe is Blackjack if you are a regular player you walk into a casino you lose somewhere around 1.50 to three dollars per hundred dollar that you bet if you are professional blackjack players you will be able to win a dollar fifty to three dollars from the casino the other way around from react GPT what is the worst casino game in terms of odds there's no question the worst game in a casino are the slot machines us range of anywhere between 80 to 99 payout that means when you put a hundred dollar in you may only get eighty dollars out or 99 out the next question is from boom loaded can Casino kick you out for winning too much most of the casino don't kick you out for winning because they believe the law of large number will eventually help the casino win back any money that you've won in the short period of time this is the concept that in statistics no matter how random something is when you do a lot of these random events together at some point there is a norm that comes out that's called the larger number however if a casino found out you are a professional and you have an edge over the casino the only law on the book that a casino can kick a player out is through the trespass log then they will kick you out and in fact they have to otherwise they will go bankrupt Nighthawk KZ how is the house Edge calculator every game has a different Edge and the way they do this is through what's called a Monte Carlo simulations you simulate millions and millions of these hands and based on that simulation and the outcome you can compute what they expected win or losses this is how a professional Blackjack team figured out what is that optimal hand to play two Bob squirt getting no luck at all in the roulette is there a trick to it unfortunately there's no way to win in a roulette as is and part of the the reason is you can bet red or black if it lands in these greens you'll basically lose the reason the casino have an edge over the player in roulette is are these two green numbers here there is however a way to win in roulette and that happens when you step into a very old not well maintained Casino where the roulette wheel itself is not balanced when it's not balanced there are parts of the wheel that get less probable of of a chance of Landing the ball in the slots along that area and then you observe that over a long period of time you can actually beat the casino by just eliminating as little as two to three numbers Casino bloke what are the odds of winning slot machines how does volatility work in slots in some states the range to which is legally allowed for the casino to set the dial could be as low as 80 and as high as 99 that means you know for every 100 you bet the casino could set it so that you will win back only 80 out of it so slot machines has a dial that casino can tweak and create the odds that they want for their business they don't change these numbers easily it requires a whole committee to to come down and agreed on this is what they need to do but in the in a more sort of off strip Shady Casino we have her story from insiders that busy you know Super Bowl nights and whatnot they literally crank up this so they can make more money the next question is from data36.com why are people losing at casinos they ignore a few statistical Concepts like expected value hot hand fallacy probability in general think of expected value as the mathematical truth of how much money you are winning on losing most of the player in the casino most of the game you have a negative expected value that means over time love large number will take over and you will lose money hot hand fallacy is the concept of streaks a lot of players when they set the table they keep winning and when they're winning they're like I'm in a hot streaks when in reality every hand is completely independent but randomly over a short period of time you could have lots of winning hints one after another and again the concept of of all of these is during the math of probability the law number eventually takes over the expected win or lose eventually play out the next question is from Kata feather what is the best blackjack strategy there's actually a perfect way to play your hand and the perfect way is that based on the cards you have in front of you against the face up card from the dealer there's a mathematical way that pair in these wins and I have here a pretty standard what's called a basic strategy chart you can Google these and find a lot of variations of it and by the way there's small variations of these depends on different casinos different rules they have there's a slight variation but if you don't know how to count cards and you memorize what to do with each hand against every single combination of the Dealer's hand you will minimize your loss in blackjack down to around 60 cents per 100 RTA Chris I'm not gonna ask how to do it but how does car counting work the principle of car counting is really around tracking how much face cards and aces are left and the rationale is that when there are more Aces there's a higher chance of either the player or the dealer hitting Blackjack except in most casinos if the player hit Blackjack they could pay a time and a half when the dealer hit Blackjack they just give you money right so because you have that time and had Advantage when when there's higher odds to hit blackjack player has an edge that's one and two the rule of blackjacks the dealer has to hit their hand until 17. when there's a lot of face cards left in the shoe the dealer will bust more often ads 69 why do casinos kick you out when you do car counting this is not cheating it is a skill it is not cheating right we're using our brain that's why it's completely legal in the state of New Jersey casinos are not allowed to kick players out so they have other means of ruining the game for us so for example in the game of blackjack they will put the cut cards way up in the front so that you basically cannot possibly count in with some Casino will use what's called continuous Shuffle machine where they have a machine that shuffles the car uh continuously in those situations there's really no way you can beat the casino trading Sumo one why do casinos have table limits if the odds are in their favor table limits are set up to bust a particular type of algorithm called the Martingale algorithm and the algorithm goes like this I bet a dollar if I win I'm gonna take the dollar I win and re-bed a dollar but if I lose a hand I'm gonna double my bet if I stack away the wins I have and for every hand I lose I double eventually the streak of losing will will break otherwise if you have a lot of money if I'm a billionaire I can go to the casino just use that algorithm that can make money while food diet tours does crab have any type of advantage to play unfortunately you can never win in crap however there is a loophole in some of the casinos in the following way so in crap you have the initial bet and after the initial bet if the roller didn't hit uh seven you will have a follow-on bit the follow-on bets are even odds there's no advantage to the casino or the player in the follow-on bits so one strategy with plane craps is you back bet anybody else so if you have a friend or even a stranger who put the initial bet as a hundred dollars and you can have the secondary pack going forward in in that round if you can bet as much money as possible on the set on the second bet up to the maximum allowed by the casino and that's even not that means you can play for a long period of time and theoretically you won't lose money and if you get a drink for free you come out of here click to launch what is your best poker strategy the best poker strategy is to get really really good at poker to begin with in non-tournament poker the way you win money is to frankly sit around tables with other players who are not as skilled as you and have a lot of money to lose your formal teammates of ours who retire from Blackjack end up building a software that he used to monitor all the online poker sites that he can get into and basically screen scrape and look at all the different tables that's out there and the algorithm rings a bell for him when he detect that there is somebody who's not that good and have a lot of money to throw around and rings a bell he jump into those tables and beat them and take take their money vubalpop how do they catch cheaters in Las Vegas there are some casinos that have RFID embedded chips in the actual chips that have been put out and the main purpose is not to catch car counters or or cheats but it's really to keep track of how much money the player put out because that's the way the compute and figure out what type of perks or what type of players or detecting whales Etc and sometimes through those RFID chips they can detect an harmonies from the statistics they're seeing and from those they will flag this player and people will then pay more attention to them and to make sure there's no cheating going on Bob volcano you think every slot machine has the same Arts the answer is no there's tons of different slot machines now technically there is a type of slot machine you can actually make money all right and that is uh part of a a whole class of slot machine called progressive slot machine you may have seen this in Casino where the concept is basically over time as the player lose money the the machine build up a bank uh and and the payout increases over time but once somebody win a jackpot or certain combination it empties out the bank so theoretically if you walk up to a machine over a certain threshold this machine will actually pay out more than the money you're paying so the strategy for these Progressive machines is that you walk up to the machine you look at how much is in the bank if it's above a certain number you basically play that machine until the bank breaks sick cheesy I lost 400 at a roulette table in 10 minutes last night what are the odds there were eight Reds in a row the odds of eight Reds in a row is 2 to the power of 8 which is 256 so it's 1 out of 256 time you will have eight rates in a row it's very unfortunate sorry to hear that Tim Sim Cox one gambling at casinos is voluntarily participating in a game that is opening of knowledge to be rigged why do people do it there are people who uh actually value the thrill of making money a whole lot more than the misery of losing money those are the true gamblers when they make a hundred dollars they are so much more happier than if they lose a hundred dollars by the way most people are the other way around if you lose 100 you feel a whole lot worse than the joy of winning a hundred dollar and usually that's how you can tell whether somebody's a gambler or not from bang schwaf which casino game makes the house the most money for most casinos the game that make the most money are the slot machines and the reason the slot machines make Casino money is there's no labor involved you can set up you know hundreds of these machines and they're just there taking up electricity but they're making money every hour that there's a player uh sitting in front of them Stephen Walton why do you always split Aces and eights in blackjack if you got two Aces the Monte Carlo simulation says you're better off splitting those Aces so that the two hands that you result in will give you higher odds of winning because you know all you need is a face card and one of them to get the highest possible which is 21. the other one is when you have an ace you can double down if it's a favorable hand against the dealer so you always split that and eight is the same thing when you split two eights you have a higher chance again mathematically to to come up more favorable him however the one caveat I would say is that if the casino you know offer surrender surrender is a little known rules surrender is the concept that if I bet 100 and I say surrender I only have to give the dealer fifty dollars I take half of my money back so if I have two AIDS the rule surrender exists in that casino you will say surrender and you you let the other half back if the dealer has a face car an ace or nine or the situation you would split the Gate lift emotion can machine learning guess your poker face so the way the machine will be able to pick out are these tells uh you know maybe touches or how long you gaze out your cards and so forth all these little nuances that frankly skill poker player relied on to beat other poker players but at the end of the day I can totally see if you focus machine learning and image recognition or facial expression on individuals that over time I can I can totally see how that you can have a algorithm that's tuned on individual players Irish Norse woman how do you lose money owning Casino if you think about the odds of winning for Casino it's still very tiny you know Casino may be the regular player three percent of the time at the same time the other side of the Ledger is they're spending tons of money entertaining guests you know restaurants lights utilities even though casino games by purely just a casino part of the business itself could be making tons of money if you don't manage the other part of the business you could still lose money that's all the questions hope you learned something from this and good luck in your next adventure in casinos

Channel: WIRED

Views: 2,955,399

Keywords: blackjack, blackjack player, card counter, card counting, casino odds support, innovation, mit, mit card counter, ott tech support, science & technology, wired, yuchun lee, yuchun lee blackjack, yuchun lee interview, yuchun lee wired

Id: 3kGlk1E_Cnw

Length: 14min 3sec (843 seconds)

Published: Tue May 16 2023