FRANCINE: MORNING AND WELCOME TO
"BLOOMBERG U.K.," A SPECIAL FOCUS ON THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGES FACING THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT, ECONOMY, AND
FINANCIAL SERVICES. LAST WEEK, WE ASKED WHAT IS
NEXT FOR THE HOUSING MARKET. THIS WEEK, WE LOOK AT THE
OUTLOOK FOR THE U.K. ECONOMY AND THE CITY OF LONDON,
AND THE BIG ISSUES FACING THE GOVERNMENT WHEN THEY RETURN
FROM SUMMER RECESS. THEY ARE IN THE SHOW, WE WILL
BE JOINED BY THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF ZURICH INSURANCE
-- PHOENIX GROUP. HERE TO DISCUSS ALL OF THIS IS
OUR BLOOMBERG U.K. CITY EDITOR KATHERINE GRIFFITHS.
ALSO OUR REPORTER FROM OUR TEAM AT BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS.
I LOVE DAYS LIKE TODAY BECAUSE WE HAVE BIG NEWS BUT WE ALSO
WANT TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEXT SIX MONTHS AND WHAT WE ARE
EXPECTING FROM YOUR RESEARCH. THE CITY OF LONDON IS AT A
JUNCTURE BECAUSE OF WHAT WE HAVE LIVED THROUGH THE LAST 12
MONTHS. LESS THAN 12 MONTHS AGO, WE HAD
THAT PENSION DEBACLE THAT ROILED THE MARKETS.
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? >> ALTHOUGH FROM A JOURNALISTIC
POINT OF VIEW THE LIZ TRUSS ERA WAS EXTREMELY EXCITING,
PROBABLY WILL BE LOOKING FORWARD TO LESS DRAMA ON THE
MARKETS FRONT. I THINK PEOPLE IN THE CITY OF
LONDON SPENT LOTS OF TIME TRYING TO GET ON BOARD WITH
MEANT IDEAS ON PENSION REFORM AND OTHER CITY OF LONDON
REFORMS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR.
HAVE GONE OFF TO HAVE THEIR NICE HOLIDAYS ON THEIR BOATS
AND OTHER THINGS, AND WILL PROBABLY COME BACK HARD IN THE
AUTUMN. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A STATEMENT
FROM THE CHANCELLOR, AND IT IS ONLY A YEAR IN DECEMBER WHEN
THE GOVERNMENT CAME UP WITH THESE REFORMS, SO ALSO IDEAS
RANGING FROM HOW TO MAKE BANKING MORE COMPETITIVE, THE
PROSPECTUS REGIME LOOKING BETTER.
TIME IS TICKING ON AND SOME OF THESE IDEAS HAVE NOT CONVERTED
INTO CONCRETE PLANS YET. FRANCINE:
DO THESE ACTUALLY MAKE A MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE TO THE
CITY OF LONDON, OR DO THEY JUST LOOK AT THE ECONOMY LISTEN AND
READ WHAT DAN HANSEN WRITES, AND SAY MAYBE I GO ELSEWHERE?
KATHERINE: THAT IS THE BIG CHALLENGE AND
PEOPLE DO NOT KNOW. JERRY IS OUT.
THERE IS A SENSE THAT INDIVIDUAL IDEAS DO NOT MAKE
MUCH DIFFERENCE. IF THEY COULD GET A PACKAGE, IT
COULD BE DIFFERENT, BUT THE HOPE IS THAT IN TERMS OF THE
MACROECONOMIC TRENDS, THINGS START TO LOOK BETTER, BUT ALSO
SOME SORT OF STORY. SO THE KIND THAT WOULD LEAD A
COMPANY TO SAY WE WILL FLOAT IN LONDON. FRANCINE:
IS THERE ANY IN THE HORIZON THAT WOULD COME TO THE U.K.?
KATHERINE: I DO NOT THINK SO. AT LEAST COMPANIES STOPPING
SAYING THEY WILL MOVE FROM THE U.K. TO THE U.S.
WOULD BE A POSITIVE SIGN. FRANCINE:
EVERY TIME THERE IS NEW RESEARCH BY DAN HANSEN, WE
THINK WE WILL BE IN A RECESSION, WE ARE NOT, AND THEN
EVERY TIME IT IS IN A PRESS CONFERENCE, GOVERNOR BAILEY
GETS A HARD TIME. HE SAYS, A BLOOMBERG ECONOMIST
WAS EXPECTING THIS, AND CONGRATULATIONS TO YOU AND THE
TEAM FOR GETTING THIS MORE AND MORE RIGHT THAN MOST. ARE WE AT
A JUNCTURE FOR THE YOU PAY ECONOMY?
THE BANK OF ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT TRACK RECORD SO
FAR. CAN THEY MAKE OR BREAK THE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW? >> THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION
GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.
WE DODGED THE ENERGY PRICE DRIVEN RECESSION, SO FOR THIS
YEAR, IT WAS THAT WE WOULD POTENTIALLY BE IN A RECESSION
AND THE U.K. ECONOMY HAS DODGED STOPPED,
WHICH IS GREAT NEWS. THE FLIPSIDE IS INFLATION HAS
BEEN MORE STUBBORN, SO THAT AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND SETS STAGE
AND WE HAVE RATES POSSIBLY GOING HIGHER THAN 5.25%. TIMMY IN THE SECOND HALF -- TO
ME THAN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, WILL THIS TIP THE ECONOMY
INTO A RECESSION, OR IF YOU LIKE THE SOFT LANDING? FRANCINE:
THAT FEELS LIKE WISHFUL THINKING. [LAUGHTER] DAN: YOU SAID IT YOURSELF.
IT IS THE COMBINATION OF THE ECONOMY BEING ESSENTIALLY
STAGNATING FOR A YEAR, THE BANK OF ENGLAND ERRING ON THE SIDE
OF WANTING TO DO MORE THAN LESS, SO YOU MIX THOSE TWO
THINGS TOGETHER AND IT IS NOT HARD TO SEE A WORLD WHERE YOU
GET SOME NEGATIVE GDP GROWTH. IN OUR FORECAST, IT IS A MILD
RECESSION, NOT THE 1990'S OR THE 1980'S, CERTAINLY NOT THE
FINANCIAL CRISIS, BUT WE DO SEE SOME WEAKNESS GOING INTO 2024.
FRANCINE: AND THE LANGUAGE OF GOVERNOR
BAILEY HAS CHANGED. I THOUGHT HE WAS MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT. HE FELT MORE AT EASE WITH WHAT
HE WAS SAYING THE LAST PRESS CONFERENCE, AND I DO NOT KNOW
IF IT IS BECAUSE HE SEES A TURNING POINT, BUT HE SUGGESTS
WE ARE NEARLY THERE. THESE INTEREST RATES COULD STAY
HIGHER FOR LONGER, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO GO. DAN: THE INTERESTING ABOUT THAT AS
IT STEMS FROM ONE DATA POINT AND WE HAVE HAD A LOT OF DATA
SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE, SO I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING
HE SAID WAS ABOUT -- I THINK THE TERM HE USED WAS, THE LAST
MILE. SO IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO GET
INFLATION DOWN TO 3% OR 4%. IT IS THAT GETTING IT DOWN TO
2%, AND THAT IS WHERE POLICY NEEDS TO DO WORK.
THAT GOES TO HIS POINT OF RATES STAYING HIGHER FOR LONGER
BECAUSE THAT WILL PRESS THE ECONOMY AND THE CRUCIAL POINT
IS THE LABOR MARKET. UNTIL YOU DO THAT, YOU HAVE GOT
TO HIKE TO BRING INFLATION BACK TO TARGET.
IT IS JUST NOT CONSISTENT. FRANCINE:
BUT HE IS EXPECTING THAT TO GO TO 6% RIGHT? DAN:
BY THE END OF THE YEAR. FRANCINE:
HOW DO YOU GROW THE ECONOMY? DO YOU HAVE A BLUEPRINT IN MIND
OF HOW THIS ECONOMY WILL FARE THE NEXT TWO OR THREE YEARS?
DAN:, IN THE NEAR TERM WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS.
THE BROADER POINT HERE IS AROUND THE SUPPLY CAPACITY IN
THE U.K. ECONOMY, AND THAT TELLS YOU HOW
FAST YOU CAN GROW IN THE MEDIUM-TERM WITHOUT STAKING
INFLATION. THE GOVERNMENT HAS A ROLE TO
PLAY AROUND INVESTMENT IN PARTICULAR BECAUSE IT IS NOT
JUST ABOUT GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT AND BOOSTING THAT UP
TO LEVELS THAT WILL DELIVER A RETURN.
THAT SPILLOVERS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, OF COURSE.
THERE IS NOT A GOOD RATE OF RETURN ON THESE INVESTMENT
PROJECTS, BUT FOR ME LONGER-TERM, WHOEVER THE NEW
GOVERNMENT IS AFTER THE NEXT ELECTION, INVESTMENT IS A KEY
PART OF IT BECAUSE THE U.K. HAS LACKED SO FAR ON THAT FRONT.
THAT WAS PART TO DO WITH BREXIT, BUT THE HOPE IS IN TIME
IF WE CAN GET THAT SIDE OF THE ECONOMY GOING, IT HELPS THE
CONSUMER LED ECONOMY AND WE NEED TO FOCUS ON INVESTMENTS,
GETTING THAT GOING. FRANCINE: WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE CITY OF
LONDON? WE WERE TALKING ABOUT FINANCE,
AND THIS WAS A HUGE PART OF THE COMPOSITION OF GDP THAT THEY
HAVE FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, FOCUSING ON
MANUFACTURING AND OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY.
CAN THE CITY COME BACK WITH ENOUGH LOVE? KATHERINE: THE CITY WANTS TO COME BACK AND
UNUSUALLY COMPARED TO THE RECENT HISTORY WITH BREXIT, IT
GOT ON THE FRONT FOOT TO TRY TO COME UP WITH SOME OF THESE
IDEAS FOR THE REFORMS AROUND PENSIONS AND THINGS, WHICH IS A
HUGE WALL OF MONEY THAT CAN BE DEPLOYED INTO OTHER AREAS.
BUT I SUPPOSE THE INTERESTING THING IS THE GOVERNMENT IS IN A
TIGHT SPOT FINANCIALLY, SO ON THE ONE HAND, IT WANTS TO
ENCOURAGE INVESTMENT WHY THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND FOREIGN
INVESTORS, BUT HOW DOES IT LOOK FROM A POLITICAL POINT OF VIEW
IF YOU START GIVING OUT INCENTIVES YOU HAVE GOT PEOPLE
AROUND THE COUNTRY WHO ARE STRUGGLING?
AND YOU HAVE GOT THIS PROBLEM WITH THE REGIONS? FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS
LEADERS, IT IS CLEAR THAT LABOUR WANTS TO HAVE MEETINGS
WITH THEM AND BE SEEN AS BUSINESS FRIENDLY.
IT IS -- IS IT TOO EARLY DAYS? WE DO NOT KNOW LABOUR'S
POLICIES IN THE FINE PRINT. KATHERINE:
THEY DEFINITELY WANT TO HAVE LOTS OF MEETINGS AND THEY ARE
HAVING LOTS OF MEETINGS. PEOPLE ARE SAYING THEY FEEL
THEY HAVE CONFIDENCE IN RACHEL REEVES.
THEY THINK SHE IS A SERIOUS PERSON TO STAND A CHANCE, A LOT
OF PEOPLE AROUND KEIR STARMER AS WELL.
WE SPEAK TO YOUNG PEOPLE, ENTREPRENEURS WHO ARE INVESTING
IN THE U.K. BECAUSE THEY EXPECT LABOUR TO
WIN THE NEXT ELECTION AND SAY THEY ARE SERIOUS PEOPLE.
THAT IS NOT EVERYBODY'S POINT OF VIEW, OF COURSE.
THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO SAY THAT RISHI SUNAK IS A SERIOUS
BUSINESS PERSON, BUT THEY ARE DISAPPOINTED BY HIS
RIGHT-LEANING POLICIES THAT ARE NOT BUSINESS FRIENDLY. FRANCINE:
DAN, IS THERE A PART OF THE ECONOMY THEY CAN LEAN ON?
IS THERE A SECTOR THAT WOULD BENEFIT THE U.K.
MORE QUICKLY THAN OTHERS IF THERE WAS THE RIGHT INVESTMENT
FROM ABROAD? DAN: YOUR POINT ON THE GREEN SIDE,
THAT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING. THE INTERESTING THING LABOUR
HAVE DONE IS THEY HAVE SCALED BACK A LITTLE BIT OF THEIR
COMMITMENT AND THEY WANT TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH HOW
QUICKLY THEY RAMP UP INVESTMENT ON THE GREEN SIDE OF THE
ECONOMY. IT GOES TO CATHERINE'S POINT
ABOUT LABOUR GENERALLY BEING PERCEIVED AS A SERIOUS
GOVERNMENT IN WAITING, AND IT GOES BACK -- WE WERE JUST
TALKING ABOUT IT OFF AIR -- BUT WHAT HAPPENED NEARLY A YEAR AGO
WITH LIZ TRUSS, WHAT MARKETS DO WHEN YOU DO NOT HAVE A CRITICAL
PLAN, SO THAT HAS MADE THE LABOUR PARTY THINK ABOUT WHAT
THEY CAN DO OR PRESENT SOMETHING CRITICAL FOR THE CITY
OF LONDON BUT ALSO THE ECONOMY GENERALLY.
THERE IS SOMETHING IN IT THEY HAVE GOT THAT IS A SERIOUS PLAN.
SO WE WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ELECTION, BUT
FOCUS ON THE GREEN SIDE OF THE ECONOMY HAS GOT TO BE SOMETHING
TAKEN SERIOUSLY GOING FORWARD BECAUSE THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
IS NOT GOING AWAY. FRANCINE: THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING US.
DAN HANSEN AND KATHERINE GRIFFITHS. COMING UP, THAT IS THE VIEW OF
SOME OF THE EXPERTS OF BLOOMBERG.
AFTER THE BREAK, WE WILL ASK THE SAME QUESTIONS TO ANDY
BRIGGS, CHIEF EXECUTIVE TO ONE OF THE PENSION PROVIDERS WHO
SIGNED UP FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S MANSION HOUSE REFORMS. THIS IS
BLOOMBERG. FRANCINE:
ECONOMICS, FINANCE, POLITICS. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG U.K.." THE U.K.'S GOVERNMENT IS FACING
A RAFT OF CRITICISM. ONE OF THE CHANCELLOR'S KEY
RESPONSES HAS BEEN THE MENTION HOUSE COMPACT, AWAY FOR PENSION
PROVIDERS TO BOOST THEIR INVESTMENT IN COMPANIES.
MY NEXT GUEST IS ONE OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVES OF ONE OF
THOSE COMPANIES, ANDY BRIGGS. WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO MAKE
THIS INTERVIEW WORK FOR SOME TIME. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE
GOVERNMENT, THE CITY OF LONDON AND ITS PLACE IN THE GROWTH FOR
THIS COUNTRY, ARE YOU OPTIMISTIC IT WILL GET THE JOB
DONE? ANDY: I AM OPTIMISTIC, BUT THE CITY
AND THE PENSION SECTOR HAS A KEY ROLE TO PLAY. THE U.K.
PENSION SECTOR HAS 3 TRILLION WORTH OF ASSETS WE ARE
INVESTING ON OUR CUSTOMERS. PHOENIX GROUP HAS 270 BILLION
OF ASSETS WE ARE INVESTING ON BEHALF OF OUR 12 MILLION
CUSTOMERS, SO WE WILL DO GOOD TO MAKE CUSTOMERS GET BETTER
OUTCOMES AND INVEST THAT MONEY IN A WAY THAT IS BENEFICIAL TO
THE BROADER ECONOMY. FRANCINE: AND THE PRIME FOR GROWTH
COMPANIES AS YOU DO NOT KNOW THE VIABILITY OF IT, SO IT IS
SCALABILITY, WHAT THE U.S. IS GOOD AT AND LESS OF WHAT THE
EUROPEANS ARE GOOD AT. ANDY: IF YOU TAKE AN INDIVIDUAL
PENSION CUSTOMER, BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WITH THE MANSION
HOUSE COMPACT IS 5% OF THEIR TOTAL ASSETS WILL BE INVESTED
IN SOME OF THESE PRIVATE EQUITY COMPANIES AND GROWTH
OPPORTUNITIES. WHAT IS IMPORTANT THEN IS THERE
IS A BROAD RANGE OF INVESTMENT ACROSS A BROAD RANGE OF SECTORS
AND MULTIPLE INTEGERS SO INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENTS CAN DO
REALLY WELL OR POORLY, BUT THE CUSTOMERS WILL HAVE A BROAD
RANGE ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF INVESTMENTS. FRANCINE:
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO DO WELL NOW
TO ATTRACT MORE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT?
I DO NOT KNOW WHETHER IT IS MORE REGULATION, CALLING SOME
OF THE BIG INVESTORS AND SAYING TO COME TO THE U.K., OR
SOMETHING ELSE? ANDY: WITH THE MANSION HOUSE COMPACT,
THE 3 TRILLION PENSIONS SAVINGS IN THE U.K. EVERY YEAR IS THE
SECOND-LARGEST MARKETS GLOBALLY. 9% OF THAT IS INVESTED INTO
WHAT WE WOULD CALL PRIVATE EQUITY AND PRIVATE DEBT.
THAT 93% COMPARES TO 23% FROM OTHER LARGE NATIONS GLOBALLY.
FRANCINE: DOES THAT COME INTO MONEY?
AND YOUR FORMER CHAIRMAN IS THE MAYOR OF LONDON.
IS THAT QUICK ENOUGH? DOES THE GOVERNMENT NEED TO DO
MORE TO SEE THE MONEY GOING TO THE RIGHT PLACES? ANDY:
WE HAVE MADE PROGRESS ON MOMENTUM AND GETTING THINGS
MOVING THIS YEAR, BUT WE DO HAVE TO FOCUS ON THE OUTCOMES
AND SEE THAT MONEY FLOWING BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK FROM A
CUSTOMER POINT OF VIEW, THE IMPACT OF US HAVING FAR LESS
INVESTED IN THESE PRODUCTIVE ASSETS. THE LAST 10 YEARS, U.K. DEFINED PENSION SAVERS HAVE HAD
A 4% RETURN PARAMETER THE LAST DECADE.
THEIR AUSTRALIAN AND CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS HAVE HAD 5.2%, SO
IF IT CARRIES ON AS IT IS, THE CANADIANS AND AUSTRALIANS WILL
HAVE A THIRD HIGHER RETIREMENT INCOME THEN THE U.K.
CUSTOMERS, SO IT IS URGENT FOR OUR CUSTOMERS THAT WE GIVE THEM
THE OPPORTUNITY TO BENEFIT FROM THIS.
ALONGSIDE THAT, IN THE U.K. WE HAVE SOME OF THE BEST
UNIVERSITIES GLOBALLY FOR INNOVATION AND STARTUPS, BUT
THOSE GET FUNDED FROM THE U.K. AFTER THE INITIALLY EARLY START
UP PHASE, SO THE U.K. ECONOMY IS MISSING OUT ON THE
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AS A RESULT. FRANCINE:
FOR THE CITY OF LONDON, THERE IS SO MUCH MONEY.
HASN'T NOT BEEN ATTRACTIVE ENOUGH IN THE PAST FOR THEM TO
STAY IN THE U.K. AND LINK UP TO SOME OF THESE
PROJECTS? ANDY: A LOT OF THE ISSUE IS A
COMBINATION OF REGULATION AND CULTURE.
THE PENSION SECTOR IN THE U.K. HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON THE CHARGES
THAT CUSTOMERS GET CHARGED, WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT, BUT
WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT IS THE OVERALL OUTCOME. I HAVE ALREADY AUSTRALIAN --
ILLUSTRATED HOW THE OUTCOMES IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA IS BETTER
FOR THE CONSUMERS. BOTH OF THOSE ARE LOOKING TO BE
ADDRESSED BY THIS. THE REAL SHAME AS WE HAVE THESE
FANTASTIC UNIVERSITIES AND STARTUPS THAT COULD DRIVE
POSITIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE, CREATE
MORE EMPLOYMENT, BETTER PAID WORK, AND WE ARE NOT LEVERAGING
THOSE. IT TENDS TO BE OVERSEAS CAPITAL
THAT INVESTS BUT OFTEN LOSES INTEREST. FRANCINE:
WHEN YOU SPEAK TO BIG U.S. INVESTORS, THERE IS AN IDEA OF
I AM LOOKING AT THE HEADLINES AND IT SEEMS LIKE A MESS
WHETHER IT WOULD BE THE U.K. OR EUROPE.
DOES THE CITY OF LONDON NEED A BIG IPO, SOMETHING BIG IN THE
PIPELINE THAT MAKES GLOBAL HEADLINES TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE?
ANDY: I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT THAT
THE U.K. HAS A DECENT PERIOD OF STEADY
PROGRESSION. SO WHEN I TALK TO OVERSEAS
INVESTORS IN TERMS OF INVESTING IN PHOENIX GROUP, THEY WILL
TALK ABOUT THINGS LIKE BREXIT, LAST SEPTEMBER AND THE MARKET
TURBULENCE. THAT HAS AN IMPACT ON
CONFIDENCE THAN THE CITY OF LONDON MARKET FOR THE MOST
IMPORTANT THING IS A PERIOD OF STABILITY, WHICH WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE. FRANCINE: HAVE YOU SEEN THE CITY OF
LONDON CHANGE SINCE YOU STARTED? YOU HAVE BEEN HERE FOR A WHILE.
ANDY: I STARTED IN 2010, BUT WE HAVE
SEEN A LOT OF CHANGES. WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF SEEING
LOTS OF OPPORTUNITIES HERE, AND WE HAVE ANOTHER PART OF THE
REFORM PACKAGE -- FRANCINE: ONLY DO SOLVENCY ON TUESDAYS.
[LAUGHTER] ANDY: THERE IS A REAL OPPORTUNITY TO
GENERATE BETTER RETURNS FOR OUR CUSTOMERS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME
SUPPORT A BROADER ECONOMY. SUSTAINABILITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE IS ANOTHER AREA. FRANCINE:
VERY QUICKLY, DO YOU THINK THE U.K.
NEEDS TO BRAND ITSELF EITHER THE SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMY LIKE
GREEN BONDS, OR THE AI ECONOMY? IS THAT EASIER FOR INVESTORS TO
PUT MONEY IF YOU KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE AIMING FOR? ANDY: I HAVE PRIMARY FOCUS IS HOW WE
GET OUR CUSTOMERS MONEY, GENERATING BETTER RETURNS TO
THEM INVESTING IN THE U.K. ECONOMY.
THAT IS THE PACKAGE OF REFORMS WE ARE FOCUSED ON. FRANCINE:
ANDY BRIGGS STAYS WITH US. WE WILL ALSO TALK ABOUT
PRODUCTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.K.
HE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE TO ARE IN THE CITY PODCAST. NEW EPISODES
DROP EVERY THURSDAY, AND TODAY WE FOCUSED ON THE BANK OF
ENGLAND. WE HAVE AN EXPERT PANEL THAT
DISAGREES. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. FRANCINE:
WELCOME BACK TO "BLOOMBERG U.K." LET'S CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
WITH PHOENIX GROUP CHIEF EXECUTIVE ANDY BRIGGS.
THANK YOU FOR STICKING AROUND. YOU HAVE DONE IMMENSE WORK TO
LOOK AT A LABOR SHORTAGE AND FUELING THE POPULATION.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO MODEL. HOW DO YOU FIX THIS? ANDY: THE CORE OPPORTUNITY HERE IS
RESEARCH FROM OUR TANK THINK INSIDERS.
ONE IN SEVEN PEOPLE IN THE U.K. ARE SAVING UP FOR A STANDARD
AND DECENT LIVING FOR RETIREMENT.
ONE OF THE THINGS PEOPLE CAN DO TO HAVE A BETTER RETIREMENT IS
TO WORK FOR LONGER, BUT WE ALSO KNOW IF THE OVER 50'S FALL OUT
OF WORK, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET BACK INTO WORK.
WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS GETTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE OVER
50'S TO GET BACK INTO WORK. BUSINESSES NEED TO FOCUS MORE
ON HOW THEY RETAIN THEIR OVER 50'S, THINGS LIKE CARING
POLICIES, FLEXIBILITY FOR WORKING.
SECONDLY, BUSINESSES NEED TO FOCUS ON WHERE THEY RECRUIT
FROM. MOST BUSINESSES RECRUIT FROM
WHERE THEY HAVE ALWAYS RECRUITED.
THINK ABOUT THE ADVERTS YOU DO, AND THE FINAL ELEMENT IS AROUND
RETRAINING. SO MANY RETRAINING PACKAGES ARE
FOCUSED ON YOUNGER AGES. PEOPLE IN THEIR 50'S HAVE A
WHOLE USE OF TRANSFERABLE SKILLS, AND LET'S GET THOSE
OVER 50'S THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAIN INTO OTHER AREAS AND NEW
CAREERS. FRANCINE: AND WE ARE SEEING SCHEMES POP
UP AT THE PRIVATE LEVEL. IS THERE A WORRY THAT IF YOU DO
NOT FIX THE NHS, YOU WILL NOT FINISH -- FIX THE UNDERLYING
PROBLEMS THAT PEOPLE HAVE TO GET BACK INTO THE WORKFORCE?
ANDY: IT IS AN ELEMENT, BUT IT IS A
SMALL ELEMENT OF PEOPLE FALLING OUT OF WORK AND NOT GETTING
BACK INTO WORK AS A RESULT OF YOUR HEALTH.
IT WOULD BE GREAT IF WE COULD FIX THAT, BUT THERE IS A HOST
OF STUFF OUTSIDE OF THAT. FRANCINE:
AND THERE IS A LABOR SHORTAGE IN THE U.K.
HOW MUCH OF THAT WOULD HELP IF YOU GOT 30% OF THE ELDER
POPULATION THAT DROPPED OUT BACK INTO WORK? ANDY:
WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO FULL EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.K., SO THAT
IS WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT TRYING TO DRIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH.
WE NEED PEOPLE TO DO JOBS, SO GETTING OVER 50'S, MANY OF WHOM
WILL NOT BE SAVING ENOUGH FOR A STANDARD DECENT RETIREMENT,
THEY COULD POTENTIALLY GET INTO FLEXIBLE WORKING AND BACK INTO
WORK IN GENERAL, AND I THINK THAT'LL MAKE A MASSIVE
DIFFERENCE FOR THE ECONOMY. FRANCINE: THANK YOU.
BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE EARLY UP NEXT -- "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE:
EARLY EDITION IS UP NEXT. A NUMBER OF STORIES WE NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON, NOT ONLY WITH CPI BUT HOUSING PRICES.
WE HAD A GREAT U.K. PROGRAM LAST WEEK LOOKING AT
WHAT IS GOING ON IN HOUSE PRICES AND THE U.S.
HOUSING MARKET IS NOW SEEING DEMAND AND PRICES SLUMP.
THIS ACCORDING TO A THINK TANK LOOKING AT SURVEYS.
SO THE FIGURES ADDING TO EVIDENCE THAT THE HOUSING
MARKET IS WEAKENING IN THE U.K. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY MORE ON
THAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
