Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2024

[Music] okay I think we we can start uh I want to welcome everyone good morning also hello to those who are joining us online I'm Jose L dearo with the Communications Department here at the IMF and we are gathered here today to introduce the latest edition of the world economic Outlook if you haven't got a copy yet I will recommend you to go to imf.org there you will find the flagship then also PBS blog and the data underlying some charts and many other assets that might be helpful for your reporting and what uh best to discuss the world economic Outlook that been here uh today with PIAA he is the economic counselor and the director of the research Department also next to him are petaa Brooks deputy director and Daniel Lee division Chief also with the research Department p is going to start with some opening remarks and then we're going to proceed to take your questions I want to remind everyone that this briefing is on the record and that we also have a simultaneous interpretation with that said Pia the floor is yours thank you Jose and good morning everyone the global economy continues to display remarkable resilience with growth holding steady and inflation declining but many challenges still lie ahead Global growth was 3.2% in 2023 and is expected to remain at that level both in 2024 and 2025 this represents a 0.3 percentage Point upgrade from our October projections for 2024 with stronger activity than expected in the US China and other large Emerging Markets but weaker activity in the Euro area inflation continues to come down median inflation will decline from 4% at the end of last year to 2.8% by the end of this year and 2.4% at the end of 2025 and most indicators continue to point to a soft Landing now resilient growth and Rapid disinflation are consistent with favorable supplies developments including the fading of energy price shocks and a striking Rebound in labor Supply supported by strong immigration in many advanced economies we also project less economic scarring from the crisis of the past four years although estimates vary across countries the US economy is already surged past its pre-pandemic Trend but we now estimate there will be more scarring for low-income developing countries many of which are still struggling to turn the page from the pandemic and cost of living crisis risks are now broadly balanced on the downside new price spikes from geopolitical tensions persistent core inflation or a disruptive turn towards fiscal adjustment could slow activity on the upside faster disinflation or timely structural reforms that boost productivity could support activity insufficient action on the fiscal front could also stimulate growth although this could force a more costly adjustment later on inflation Trends are encouraging but we are not there yet somewhat worryingly progress towards inflation targets has stalled since the beginning of the year in some countries this could be a temporary setback but there are reasons to remain Vigilant oil prices have been rising in part due to geopolitical tensions and services inflation remains stubbornly high in many countries further trade restrictions could also push up Goods inflation bringing inflation back to Target should remain the priority there are star divergences also between countries that call for careful calibration of monetary policy the strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity grow growth and growth in labor Supply but also strong demand pressures that could add to inflation this calls for a cautious and gradual approach to easing by the Federal Reserve by contrast growth in the Euro area will rebound this year but from very low levels unlike in the United States there is little evidence of a hot economy and the European Central Bank will need to carefully calibrate the pivot towards monetary easing China's economy remains affected by the downturn in its prop property sector domestic demand will remain lackluster unless strong measures address the root cause and monetary policy can afford to be more accommodative going forward policy makers should prioritize measures that help preserve or even enhance the resilience of the global economy a key priority is to rebuild fiscal buffers especially in an environment with high real interest rates modest growth and elevated debts unfortunately planned fiscal adjustments are often insufficient and could be derailed further given the record number of Elections this year in the United States the fiscal stance is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability this raises short-term risks to the disinflation process as well as longer term Fiscal and Fin Financial stability risks for the global economy fiscal consolidations are never easy but it is best not to wait until markets dictate their conditions credible fiscal consolidations can help lower funding cost improve fiscal Headroom and financial stability the keys to start early gradually and credibly this will also pave the way for further monetary policy easing to support activity the second priority is to reverse the decline medium-term growth for low-income countries structural reforms should promote domestic and foreign investment and increase fiscal revenues this will help lower borrowing cost and reduce funding needs these countries must also improve the human capital of their large young populations especially as the rest of the world is aging rapidly artificial intelligence also gives hope for boosting productivity it may do so but the potential for serious disruptions in labor and financial markets is high and the right infrastructure and regulations are needed third Global growth prospects are also harmed by Rising geoeconomic fragmentation trade linkages are already changing some economies could benefit from the reconfiguration of Global Supply chains but the net effect may still be a loss of efficiency making the global economy less not more resilient and the broader damage is to Global cooperation a great achievement of the past few years has been the strengthening of monetary fiscal and financial policy Frameworks especially for emerging market economies this has helped make the Global Financial system more resilient and avoid a Perman permanent Resurgence of inflation going forward it is essential to preserve these improvements and that includes protecting the hard one independence of central banks lastly the green transition requires major Investments cutting emissions is compatible with growth but emissions are still Rising so more needs to be done and done quickly this will require technology transfers by other advanced economies in China to other emerging and developing economies as well as substantial private and public financing on these questions as well as on many others multilateral Frameworks and cooperation remain essential for progress thank you thank you P Olivier and before we open the floor to your questions some ground rules if you have a question please raise your hand and wait till I call on you if I do please identify yourself and the outlet you represent we will be taking questions also online and Via WebEx and I want to remind everyone that we are here to discuss the world economic Outlook if you have questions regarding country programs negotiations there's going to be plenty of regional press briefings later on the week where you can tackle these issues so uh we're going to start here on the second row front David Lauder with reuter's new service here in Washington uh pure Olivier can you uh go a little bit deeper into the scarring that is happening uh with uh low-income developing countries you said many of these are you know having a hard time sort of re recovering after the the various crises that they've been through uh how is this being manifested uh which countries are having the worst time of it and then also uh if you could comment a bit on uh the the energy price Outlook the United States is looking it potentially new sanctions against Iran after its attack on Israel um that's likely to to come in the oil sector um you know if we do see spikes in in prices what does that mean for inflation globally and uh you know the recovery thank you well thanks David yes so as I mentioned with estimates are of scarring which is the amount of decline in output relative to our pre- pandemic say January 2020 estimates have been uh uh reduced for most regions and uh countries but they've been increased for low-income developing countries and another thing that we've noticed over uh the recent estimates and our recent round of projections is also inflation uh and price pressures have been revised up so what we're seeing for that region is a combination of still uh uh impact in terms of output and also uh prices that remain uh remain quite strong price pressure that remain quite strong so what is going on here is we're seeing a combination of the effect of relatively high energy and food prices increas in food insecurity in countries in the region that is affecting outcomes this is a region that is also uh had limited more limited fiscal buffers during the pandemic and the cost of living crisis to protect its population and we see uh the remaining effect of this going on we're in environment in which interest rates are rising uh there are fiscal pressures and so there is limited space for a lot of these countries to address uh these among low-income and developing economies now in terms of potential outlook for energy price and what it might do to the global economy uh this is something that we explored in uh our report we uh looked at a scenario where we would have more uh geopolitical tensions that would result in elevated oil prices Energy prices and uh shipping costs and what we find is that this would lead to higher price pressures in the global economy there would be higher inflation there would be lower output and roughly uh the estimates we have for a sustained increase in oil prices by about 15% uh would be an increase in inflation globally of about 0.7 uh uh percent um so there is some effect there we are not in that scenario right now our assessment of what has been happening with the tensions in the Middle East is there's been some increase in oil prices but it's too early to say whether that would be sustained uh and it's not in our Baseline but we certainly looked at it scenario very carefully okay um let's uh go there hello this is n from a shark business uh with Bloomberg I have a question now uh you touched upon the rising inflation again so interest rates are already really high how do you see central banks dealing with this specifically the FED especially that uh now the probability of any decrease in interest rates in June is basically declining well this is one of the divergences that we highlight in in our report we're seeing is indeed that uh the the drivers of inflation in a country like the United States are somewhat different than they are in other regions of the world especially if you look at the Euro area or the UK or or or Japan and there is uh evidence which we document in our report that the tight labor market strong demand are playing a role in uh in the US and if that were to be reinforced and the recent inflation print numbers in the US seem to point in that direction although we have to take that with a grain of salt there's a lot of volatility in the month-to-month inflation numbers uh then that would uh probably call for a delayed easing of uh monetary policy in the US at the same time I want to say that we would still expect uh the us to be in a position where it starts easing sometime in in 2024 the progress has been enormous in terms of the disinflation and the resilience of the economy and what we're seeing now is uh maybe a slight adjustment in terms of uh in terms of the Baseline okay we're going to go here in the first room row and then we will go back yeah thank you very much for the opportunity uh so China's uh q1 GDP number just came in at 5.3% uh which was just released last night so how does that number look to you and and giving the all year Target 5% uh you know set by the U uh China government so does that the first quarter GDP number give you more confidence that we can reach the you know hit the target for the whole year and also in your remarks you mentioned that uh China's domestic demand will remain lackluster for for quite some time so uh unless uh strong measures and reforms uh address the root cause so can you elaborate so what do you mean by the strong measures and uh the reforms thank you very much before we answer the question I think that we also have a question on WebEx on China so please the reporter that wants to come in on WebEx where uh this is a question from E High Media Group uh so in the context of the green transition and how should Global cooperation be structed and what role can China play in this collaborative effort additionally um at the last we leas uh you noted that globalization is plateauing um had there been any change in this trend and what impact might this have on Glo uh Global coroporation to address the climate change thank you so we can go with the GDP numbers and then we can go with the climate one yes happy to so first yes so this uh last night it was released that China's GDP year onye for the first quarter was uh 5.3% this this is higher than the the estimates that is certainly higher also than the estimates we had here at the fund uh so the um team will be assessing uh how they're revising their growth projections for uh the annual numbers um and it might uh might be revised upwards but I would like to emphasize some of the uh some of the structural uh forces that are driving the Chinese economy uh right now and certainly one of the important ones is the weakness in the property sector uh and uh in our forecast for this year forecast was unchanged from January at 4.6% uh there were two balancing forces one was a stronger stimulus that was coming from the Chinese government uh with measures that were announced as as recently as last month in March but then the continued weakness in the property sector and the two uh in our assessment were we're balancing each other out and leading to an unchanged forecast now we will have to see whether that that is revised but the underlying weakness in the property sector is still there and some of the indicators uh we have that were released even in the last few days do seem to point out that that weakness will will persist so when we're referring to uh reform measures that would be needed those would be measures that would directly address some of the root cause of the weakness in the property sector and that includes dealing with uh uh uh property developers that are struggling uh right now and recapitalizing or or winding them down uh and then finding ways in which also there might be ways to sustain uh domestic consumption uh for China uh in the medium to long term and that includes maybe building a stronger safety net the broader context here and that allows me to Pivot to the second question on China is that with an economy that is uh that has potentially still relatively weak domestic demand but is is uh uh uh is growing then there will be an increased Reliance on on the export sector and that is something that in the context of uh very uh tight trade tensions could be complicated and so certainly there would be uh uh you know in the interest of uh the Chinese economy to develop ways of sustaining domestic domestic demand let me turn to uh Daniel and see if there are any other uh points on China well I would just add that the um green transition and the high-tech sectors present a great opportunity for China and policies like evening the uh playing field between state-owned and private Enterprises are going to help China capitalize on this great potential okay we're going to the third row uh it's the third row yeah there yeah Larry Elliot of the Guardian I just wonder whether you could say a bit more about the tension in the Middle East I mean the um the world economy has been hit by a number of shocks in recent years including the war in in Ukraine is there a risk that the conflict between Israel and Iran could be the next Mali the global economy and maybe you could unpack a bit more how you think it would impact on the global economy not just through oil prices but through business and consumer confidence yeah well certainly uh I mean we watch the developments happening in that space and we uh try to uh uh adjust our scenarios and our analysis based based on that so as I as I mentioned earlier uh the way we approach this is by evaluating different possible trajectories for for the global economy the one that we describe in detail in our report is one where you would have uh fairly significant uh disruptions in oil markets that would lead to 15% increase in oil prices and also uh increase in uh in shipping costs um so of course one could think about more adverse scenarios than that but I think uh that is something that we have not uh really uh uh contemplated uh just yet uh the impact and to unpack a little bit uh the channels here you're you're right that there would be an impact on on business confidence uh there would be an impact on on uh on investment probably uh the increased inflation that would come from higher energy prices would uh trigger a response from central banks that would tighten interest rates in order to secure uh inflation coming back to Target and that would uh weigh down on on activity and that would do so in the context in which uh in some countries uh activity and growth is already uh fairly weak and so that might also have uh a a strong effect there okay first row there thank you very much uh Joel Hills from ITV News I wanted to pick up uh Pierre Olivier and some of the comments you making about the prioritization of rebuilding fiscal buffers consolidation you say is never easy but it's important that it's early gradual and credible um sort of within that context are you com comfortable with the British approach of cutting taxes on a assumption I suppose of future unspecified cuts to public spending before we answer there's another question online from Holly Williams um press Association that says was it responsible for the UK Chancellor to cut taxes in the latest budget when inflation is still above Target and it's it risks putting more pressure on price Rises right so what we emphasize in our report is a number of countries uh um need to do many countries in the world that have deployed fiscal buffers during the pandemic and the cost of living crisis have seen their debt to GDP uh increase substantially now some of that has come down a little bit this is the effect of of uh you know unexpected inflation if you want but if you look at the trajectory it's uh starting to grow again in many countries and so we are calling for uh re building dis buffers which is absolutely necessary to be able to deal with um the kind of shocks that um might be larger in magnitude and might be uh might be there might be more than one at the same time who seem to be living in this shock prone World um and that having that fiscal capacity is is important uh that's true for the UK uh but that's true for many other uh countries that's true for many uh chiefly this is true for the United States uh this is true for uh many European economies it's true for many countries around the world so this is a a general assessment that it's very important to do that we see very clearly that those countries that had the fiscal room to protect households and businesses during these two crisis were able to do much better and were able to rebound much more quickly so it's it's a time now that these crisis are behind us at least both of these crisis are behind us but we could face future crisis and they could be coming uh to be prepared okay we're going to take a question from WebEx then we will go back to the room be patient we will take more questions don't worry um we have a question from Liam uh please go ahead hello I can you hear us did you mean me yeah now we can hear you hi hi this is sham lman from Hindu thank you for doing this um you've projected a 6.8% and 6.5 % growth rate for India over the next two years um could you please elaborate on your policy recommendations for India uh specifically could you comment on the employment situation there and other pressures to these growth numbers such as net Financial assets for households and private consumption which has been impacted by food inflation for many thank you and we have another question similar question on India from the economic Times uh on the Press Center that says you have raised India's growth forecast for 2024 what are the upsides and downside risks to this 6.8% number how will the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affect growth and inflation forecasts yes thank you so indeed uh India is one of the strong performers we had a a fairly sharp Revision in the fiscal year 23 24 the one that is uh ending and uh that's just ended and and and then we have a 0.3 percentage point up upgrade for uh fiscal year 2425 uh so India is is is doing quite well and let me turn to uh Daniel to uh answer more specifically yes so we have a moderation in growth from a very high growth rate of 7.8 last year down to 6.8 this year and then 6.5 next year and this moderation partly reflects the tightening in monetary policy and uh the tightening and fiscal policy which is necessary to bring inflation down we see inflation coming down is in the uh target range 4.6 this year 4.2 next year there are upside risks to this forecast there could be further strength in in uh private demand uh also an upside comes from the potential for reforms that would liberalize foreign investment and really boost exports and boost jobs and uh labor force participation so it's a very strong uh Outlook and there's um a balanced uh risk Outlook okay do we have any question um we're going to second row hi there I'm danielis a just a quick question about um Russia if I may um can you uh help us just to understand um what's behind the very significant increase not only now but over the last um few months to the IMs forecast for Russia thank you and I think we have another question on Russia on weik please come in we cannot hear you we cannot hear you now we can hear you yeah good morning and on the test news agency of Russia thank you so much for doing this um the same question the growth rate of the Russian economy is higher into 2024 than similar figures of the group of seven countries that imposed sanctions against Russia in this case can we say that Russia was able to successfully overcome the sanctions restrictions thank you so much yes so we have revised uh Russia as GDP growth in for 2024 by 0.6 percentage point to 3.2% so this is a significant upward revision we're still expecting growth to decline in 2025 from 3.2% to 1.8% I will turn to my colleague Peta Brooks uh to provide additional details thank you so there's several factors behind the resilience of the uh Russian economy and the upgrades that we've SE that we've made I would mention four factors uh first oil uh export volumes have held steady um the second part is that we've seen a lot of stren strengthen uh corporate investment including by state-owned Enterprises the third is that we've also seen a lot of robustness in in private consumption that has underpinned growth and last but not least we've also had the impact from government spending uh though there we've seen a much larger increases in security related spending and overall spending now to put this in context of if we look into the medium term there we've uh we still have growth rates that are significantly below what they were prior to the war now we have growth rates at the order of one and a quarter as opposed to 1.7 which we had previously which is another way of saying that the Russian economy is still expected to uh to to face these headwinds as a result of the again the impact of the war and the asso iated sanctions thanks we're going to go to the fourth row yeah thank you uh Suzanne Lynch from Politico um I have a question about the growth figures for Europe uh the German economy in particular only growing by 0.2% um what's your analysis of that and how concerned are you about the Euro Zone economy in particular particularly in comparison to the US so on the Euro sorry on the Euro economy we we have a region that has been filling uh the full brunt of the energy crisis of the last uh 2022 and part of 2023 and is gradually emerging from that in the context of tight monetary policy and so what we're seeing is uh a pickup in activity from uh 2023 to 2024 so growth in Germany for instance is very modest 0.2% but it's uh higher than uh the negative growth in in 2023 and the same is true at the level of the Euro area where we expect growth to grow from 0.4% in 23 to 0.8% in 24 and then as we go into 2025 we expect that um monetary policy will start easing so Financial conditions will become easier and also that the cost of living receding the purchasing power of uh of households and workers will increase as real wages catch up and that will also sustain uh sustain demand but we start from a position of relatively uh weak consumer sentiment still tight monetary policy and that's that's still weighing down uh on on growth in uh in in this year uh let me turn to pya for additional comments on Germany and Europe I don't have much to add on on Germany for the year areas some of the same factors are playing a role although we do have quite a lot of heterogeneity within the your area so we do have uh upward revisions in other countries uh for instance uh Spain Portugal um Belgium that uh partially offset the uh the downward revisions in uh in Germany and France we go to the first row here and then we will move to the side thank you uh two questions on ginaa you foresee a sharp decline in inflation and uh a rebound of uh GDP I was hoping if you could elaborate if you see that this inflation process on on solid footing first and second there's a debate among economies whether the recovery is going to be in L v or U shape um I was hoping you could pick a letter and tell us how and when uh the recovery you see it happening thanks so on Argentina I mean the authorities are are implementing a a very ambitious stabilization plan uh to restore macroeconomic stability and uh as as you know the plan is uh is centered uh on a strong fiscal anchor uh that eliminates in particular any Central Bank financing of of the government which was one of the factors that was leading to um very elevated inflation numbers under in previous years um and so that is already uh showing its effects we see this sharp decline in uh month on month in inflation um and so the progress so far has been has been has been really impressive uh the authorities have been able to record a fiscal Surplus for the first time in uh in over a decade um and uh but of course uh this is uh going to take some time and um that's going to require a St steadfast policy impementation much more needs to be done uh and much more needs to be done in on the broader scale so I think this is uh this is uh we're watching this situation closely the we our our uh teams here in the at the fund are in close contact with the authorities um but the progress again has been uh has been has been quite sharp now whether that's going to be V or or L uh let's let's uh agree that we much prefer uh V over U over l and with the alphabet we are going to move towards this side of the room the lady that has her thank you hello uh Anna Rodriguez the Colombian newspaper in general what is the grow perspective for Latin America not only for Argentina and across the the war what is the how how do you see the oil markets in that region please thank you before we answer there's two specific questions about the outlook on Mexico and Brazil so if we can elaborate to uh that will be great right so let me just give a few numbers and then turn it over to uh to p uh the Latin America and Caribbean region we see uh growth that is uh been uh uh is going to slow down a little bit from 2.7% to 2.5% numbers I give you here are excluding Argentina and Venezuela we have uh uh fairly specific uh uh uh environments and uh and that's revised up uh in 2024 by 0.2 percentage point so there is there is a lot of resilience in the region as well uh although uh uh of course they uh uh the number of countries in the region a tight monetary policy in fact tight monetary policy that started ahead of what uh advanced economies did and that is weighing down uh uh on growth and is expected to go away as uh as we have some easing of monetary conditions maybe a few words on uh Mexico and on Brazil starting with Brazil we are expecting growth to come down from 2.9 in 23 to 2.2 uh this year and then to to stay about the same um at about the same rate at 2.1 in 2025 now um last year we saw a lot of strength due to uh record agricultural uh production uh and and this time around we see um Mo moderation uh in that as well as um the uh we also have an upgrade in our forecast for this year as a result of the fiscal support which is expected to be uh to to be seen in the country now when it comes to Mexico we are um expecting growth to come down to 2.4 this year from 3.2 last year and then going on to 2025 to be 1.4 we've seen a a strong recovery in the second half of 2023 due to a lot of internal demand especially investment uh and of course the the strength of the US economy and the close Links of Mexico with that have also played a role I'll stop here thanks okay we have uh 10 minutes I'm going to come back here I know that you've been waiting very patiently let's go to that side of the the room uh Bloomberg and then we will end up here I hope that we still have two three questions left so don't worry thank you pierier Eric Martin with Bloomberg News wanted to ask you about your uh commentary on the uh us fiscal situation and uh the fiscal balance in the report it mentions larger than expected government spending uh including uh what's estimated um com in comparison excuse me with prior forecasts 2% of GDP in the US um can you talk a little bit about the conversations uh between the IMF and the US in terms of uh what the US should be pursuing in terms of fiscal policy and given the size of the US economy uh about a quarter of the world economy how concerning this is for overheating uh around the world yes so there is uh of course the cyclical part and there is the most structural part and so let me start with with the cyclical part and here what I would want to emphasize is uh uh the US is expected to turn towards fiscal consolidation in 2024 in in our in our projections uh there is a 1.9% uh increase in the structural fiscal balance for the of the US for 2024 and that is one of the reasons among others why we're expecting also growth to slow down in uh in in in this year compared to uh to last year and and and and and after that uh so there is some uh some movement in the right direction if you want but as for many other countries were concerned that this is um a uh not enough and B more importantly not necessarily sustained uh over uh sufficient period of time that it would bring back uh debt to GDP levels uh into a more comfortable uh Zone and the the the background here is that even if we have an easing of monitor policy that is expected our Baseline is still that the FED is going to uh cut policy rates sometime later this year um the funding cost for a government debt may not be decreasing as much uh because the what is called the term premium the risk premium on government debt uh has increased in in recent times and may remain high in the context in which debt levels are are elevated and there are also risks uh around that so we are concerned uh uh about that more of that medium term term implication of the fiscal trajectory uh for for the US Daniel any anything to add thanks third row there yeah no thank you very much well okay I will take those questions you first and then the lady behind you my name is Ivan magicia I write for the for AFP and the Africa report I have one question um this is going to be a very uh interesting year for Africa especially about close to 19 countries are going for General general elections I want to know your projections considering the fact that U uh this usually comes with a lot of political violence in some areas as well as uh as well as uh sluggish sluggish growth that has affected the subsaharan region I want to know more about the recommendations you have for these African countries that are going for elections especially in this period and uh what you expect thank you just that yeah let's go first with this question and then we can go okay yeah so the I mean 2024 is the biggest election year on record uh and so the question of Elections uh is important for many parts of the world including including Africa and and that's a concern especially in relation to what we just discussed which is the fiscal trajectories uh there there is a risk there that there could be some fiscal slippage uh for the subaran African region a growth number for 2024 is 3.8% this is actually unchanged uh from our January uh projection and it's up from 3.4% in 2023 so there is there is a rebound in in in growth and activity as uh as the supply side improves and maybe as a negative effects of past uh weather shock uh subside um Daniel any anything to add yeah I'd add that U you know after four years of quite U loot of turmoil uh this is uh the year where we really see a turnaround in investor appetite for Africa uh we've had um C divir issuing the Euro Bond Ken Kenya spreads easing so this is going to ease some of the pressure on these economies also as inflation starts to come down inflation has is coming down as those past shocks fade and also thanks to uh the tight uh policies that have been implemented of course there's a lot of um risks around this uh scenario in the context of uh elections there could be more spending uh in the short term that could provide a boost but there there are serious uh potential disruptions later on if there's an easing as in other parts of the world this is our our assessment also there's um the um upside risk from uh further uh acceleration of of reforms to help uh you know people uh uh get jobs and and and attract more foreign investment allow me to remind you that there's going to be Regional press briefings going later in this week so we can continue tackling some of these issues go ahead and then we will have time for only just one question and we will have to end yeah okay thank you very much my name is hope mosis from business day Nigeria you raised um Nigeria's growth from from 2.9% to 3.3% so what are the drivers of this growth considering the fact that inflation is rising every day and then the impact of um Forest subsidy and other factors thank you thank you I will ask Danielle to come in on Niger yes so yes uh growth in Nigeria steady but actually Rising this year from 2.9% last year to 3.3 3% this year uh we've seen an expansion from the recovery in the oil uh sector with a better security situation and also improved agriculture uh benefiting from the better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming uh so there's a a broad-based increase also in the financial sector and the IT sector uh inflation yes it uh it has increased uh part of this reflects the the reforms the exchange rate um and it's passed through into other uh goods from Imports to other Goods so this explains also why we revised up our inflation projection for this year to 26% but with the tight monetary policies and that uh interest rate increase significant interest rate increases during February and March we think we see inflation declining to 23% next year and then 18% in 2026 so in the right direction definitely the last question is going to be that gentleman there and I'm sorry there's going to be more opportunities to ask more questions there's Regional press briefings happening later this week where you can tackle all the country specific questions hi I'm Shazad from geop Pakistan uh we all know climate change is a big problem so how has the climate change impacted the growth and inflation in the last few years uh because 2022 floods in Pakistan caused an economic estimated economic loss of of around $30 billion this is an estimate by the World Bank and I also would like to know what is IMF doing to help these countries uh that are being damaged by the uh climate change yeah so we we we are seeing in fact uh increased weather shocks uh related to uh climate uh transition and that is impacting sometimes countries at a macroeconomic level uh and the example of Pakistan I think is uh is is a relevant one here uh but there are there are other countries that are of course in that situation uh and uh and often what we have is uh that uh countries that are uh among the lowincome countries might be more vulnerable to this extreme weather events so is a conjunction of having relatively little in terms of fiscal buffers or ability or F infrastructure and uh capacity to deal with uh with these events and therefore they have a much larger impact on on people's well-being and and livelihoods um so that's something that is is factored in in in our in our rounds of projections we do take into account uh the the broad uh array of risks that countries are facing uh the second part of your question what the fund can do I mean the fund along with other uh uh organizations is of course uh uh International organizations very focused on on climate issues we have an instrument uh resilience and sustainability trust that is designed to help countries build that resilience uh going forward and and help them uh be able to weather these type of shocks we're also involved in providing uh technical assistance in helping countries both adapt and put in place mitigation strategies for climate climate change thanks okay so we're going to have to wrap it here but on behalf of P pet and Daniel the research Department the Communications Department I want to thank you all a couple of remind ERS next press briefing is the Global Financial stability report in this same room tomorrow pay attention to the fiscal Monitor and as I said later this week Regional press briefings you can tackle those uh country specific questions and don't forget also to come to the managing director's press briefing thank you very much any comments questions media imf.org [Music]

Channel: IMF

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Keywords: IMF, international monetary fund, economics, economy, weo, world economic outlook, inflation, gdp

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Length: 46min 50sec (2810 seconds)

Published: Wed Apr 17 2024