Prashant Kishor Exclusive With Rajdeep Sardesai On BJP, PM Modi & Elections 2024 | India Today

BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner yeah politically speaking he his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on ideology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you use the Indira Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections are fought uh by see not be like by both but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for IND Gandhi same way people are voting direct sure but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr Modi is drawing on a mix of of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND he had this Charisma and you know the control over State Machinery as we call it in totality be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen uh a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be say in '70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 356 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have seal it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has gripped the opposition that everybody some the system is against us today I I I don't I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free Ed CBI free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary and entire system was under you how did you came to 45 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused these powers that you have they have misused to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI ma election machinery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years no no Prashant the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president has gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this issue Arin krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty is smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do so between 2014 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel Raj a lot you would hear many common people saying common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for Mr Modi in the general election same voter who may have voted for mam banerji in Bengal two three years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vidhansabha and Lok SAA and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr modi's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the bjp's underperformance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vidhan SAA only 3 percentage point BJP vote share was 3% Point lower than the loksabha between 2014 to 2019 now the underperformance in vidhansabha for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP that much more diff ult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people are not taking Mr modi's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 20149 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mentioned how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats it's starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in north in Bihar bjp's vote share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal urisa Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti BJP uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four key anti-bjp uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then this 200 MP who anyway are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult it's very difficult imposs and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trip Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madha Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to caral look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on Telangana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is going at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these States like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free rasan is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupees pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in biar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or orisha you have to be in their shoes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that the they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in biar for example you know the old AG pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his house household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad nsh Kumar in a way nitish Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mind more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for Bihar because all they were interested in that with the help of Lau Yad get some 20 25 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if luu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing VJ V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that Bihar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nitish Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of biar because they want 30 seats from but do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or our regional parties here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah so I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if KC is a was a is a regional party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast census is going to be the second m and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again Cas Thing Once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it Nies Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about it if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up Bihar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and Bihar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is bhara SL Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the Kamar Nar narrative still runs yes I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi what Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi's the this has they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so hinda is there self-made man is there Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric Poli Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know 5 years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 20 30 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clar if this doesn't mean that I lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the poity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form no new for ideologically the CH one side is this right right to C right to center another is the left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which is still is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that I told you know you remember 2 three years back uh we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 20 30 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party status is not same as being a National Force political force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jang and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came repositioned them themselves at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force oppose opposing the bjp's ideology and what BJP represents in a way you are offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the course I'm not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of center I'm saying that in this country left of center space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re uh position themsel they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vihans SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and nitish may finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in Bihar for last 2 years I have not I I'm not I'm not to go Bihar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday 2 years I have left everything and I stationed in Bihar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in coming from Bihar in their Assembly Election not in the Lok saaba but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the banaba election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 2024 loksabha is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place in the next few years if I'm in oppositionist space I would fight with all the might the Lo saaba but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the vhan SAA beat Maharashtra beat harana beat Bihar from today from today not after Lo SAA but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose Lo saaba then 3 months they will go in oblivian then comes the vidhan SAA election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is Lok SAA you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall in 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal elections you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading towards single party democracy now you're telling me multi- party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian Dem you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose Loa elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's its multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win loksabha don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win Loa but you have enough opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank thank you for having me thank hello and welcome to this India Today special after nitish Kumar's G wapy yet again in Bihar the dark clouds hanging over the himon Surin government in jaran and the recent defeat of the Congress to the BJP in the Hindi Heartland States most political observers are saying that the 2024 general elections are a done deal for Narendra Modi and the BJP are the general elections of formality does the opposition still have a chance of making a comeback who better to answer that than the country's Ace Pol political strategist now a political activist with the Jan surj movement that he has set up in Bihar joining us now the one and only Prashant Kishore appreciate you're joining us Prashant thank you uh after the fall or should I say the reemergence of nitish Kumar in a new AAR this time back in the NDA the general consensus is that 2024 is a done deal do you go along with that that nitish Kumar's decision has vir spr made 2024 a done deal uh yes and no because see nitish Kumar per se him being part of the opposition block was not that big a deal first of all because on his own he was not bringing something that would have turned the table but perception wise yes there was at least those who believed in the opposition's strength or the new formation called India they thought him as one of the key allies or key component of this new formation uh BJP by taking him back to my mind has gone for a strategy what what we what one would say uh losing uh losing a war for losing a battle to win a war uh because in biar per se BJP is not going to give any advantage to BJP but in terms of perception Countrywide yes no but the fact is Let's Be honest now that the BJP has nitish Kumar with it they have chak paswan with it it appears that the opposition is decimated in be a state where the BJP won 39 out of 40 seats last time so the BJP seems to have virtually you know Domin will now dominate bear no actually not if you look at the Hard data in 2014 BJP fought on its own with the Allies like chak paswan at that time ramas paswan G and they won more than 32 seats in last general elections BJP won 177 not 39 the the alliance with Alliance they won 39 this time around with uh Niti not being what he used to be in 2014 or 2019 BJP and the India Alliance anyway was doing pretty well so I don't think BJP has taken nitish Kumar back to add seats in Bihar in fact if you look at carefully bjp's own number is going to be less in Bihar after taking nitish Kumar because they will be fighting less number of seats so why did BJP opt for this they have opted for exactly where you started this interview that in terms of perception nitish was seen as somebody who is bringing together all part who brought everyone together to build this India Alliance so by taking one of the Architects out of it BJP has given a severe psychological blow to the opposition not in material terms in material terms ni does not ni this leaving is not going to matter much in fact it's going to reduce bjp's number and in assembly elections BJP is going to pay the price for this but they have opted for it knowingly because they want to win the war maybe lose the battle in biar no in a sense it seems that the BJP has decided that 2024 up bar Charo par you see there

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Length: 28min 50sec (1730 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 15 2024