Powell, Lagarde and other central bank governors speak at ECB Forum on Central Banking–6/28/23

conference really great the Federal Reserve d it is territory goals [Music] and is it possible to do so without creating a recession ladies and gentlemen memories [Music] [Music] thank you all I'm curious how much more thank you so much it is covered ground we have increased interest rate by less than 400 basis points we'll tell you a lot more results [Music] that's a good thing assistance was again um uh um skip so what are we calling it well first of all Sarah thank you and um so um economy enough meeting [Music] that way thank you I'm trying um Target um assistant but let's say um responsible is it too weak well again monitoring the situation no no this isn't a long intervention for you to feel comfortable or potentially going the other way well this is what we've covered 10.3 6.1 headline uh core has moved a bit down inflation you know we are not seeing any of them particularly domestic prices are stabilizing and moving down so we're looking at as many measurements as we can because [Music] a track again we have a very very robust labor market and strong labor market in the UK one of the Striking things about the UK is that the size of the labor force is smaller than it was at the outbreak of covid so we have had a shrinkage of the labor force we're seeing some reversal of that now but we're still not back to where we were pre-covered so that is that is causing uh you know the position the labor market to be very tight and I see this when I go around the country talking to firms because I could you know what what they say to me very frequently is that their plan is to retain labor as much as they can even in the event of a downturn because they've been concerned and it's been difficult to recruit labor so that's that's certainly taking place I would say there's a backdrop of a very tight labor market uh going on is it brexit related also I don't think brexit is a is a part of that labor market story I think a lot more of it is actually to do with uh frankly you know the response to covert I mean we've seen people UK is a little unusual in this respect we've seen we saw people come out of the labor force during the covert period other countries have tended to see that that position reverse more quickly and more strongly than we've seen in the UK Governor weather when it comes to the inflation path for you I mean I know you'd like to see it continue to rise from here right what would it take for you to really strongly consider abandoning the yield curve control and negative rates so we we have a full orchestral uh projection of inflation path that looks like it's going to go down for a while toward the end of this year on declines in import prices and in spirit over to domestic prices and from there on we are forecasting some increase in in the rate of inflation into 24. but we are less confident about the second part if we get re if we become reasonably sure about the second part is going to happen that could be a good reason for a policy change if you see a steady increase uh if we are reasonably sure that the second part is going second part of the forecast is going to but didn't you learn from from these three that inflation turned out to be not transitory excuse me I mean it wasn't one of the lessons from the last year that inflation wasn't transitory and that there are some elements in it was not yeah that there are some elephants of it that are sticking and proving difficult to fight right so the second part is the sticky part but it's still as I said we think less than two percent we hope to make sure that it's going to go up to two percent chair pal we've we've seen some progress in the U.S certainly if you look at the headline CPI from nine percent down to four percent I know you're focused on core but what would make you feel feel better about it that you could remain on hold so the progress on Headline inflation coming down is certainly welcome and ought to help keep inflation expectations anchored but I think it actually helps to break to think about core inflation broken into three pieces the first of which is Goods inflation and we've seen Goods inflation coming down uh for six months now and that's because Supply chains are are improving the shortages are more or less gone and also because consumption is moving back to services and away from good so that part of the story makes sense uh Housing Services is the next piece in between that and goods you have a little bit less than half of the total index and you see now the new rents that are coming in uh are are at lower increases or no increase and so that there's significant uh disinflation in the pipeline there but it's going to take 12 months or 18 months to get there the place where we haven't really seen much progress is in non-housing Services which is a little more than half of our core pce inflation index and that's you know uh hot Hotel Services travel Services uh Food Service uh you know Financial Services Health Care those things it's it's a very labor generally very labor intensive some of it's quite sickly sickle extensive it's some of it's not the point is we really that's that's where we're not seeing a lot of progress yet and and the reason is that um or one explanation for it is that uh labor costs are really the biggest Factor by far in that in most parts of that sector and we're so what we need to see we've we've seen a lot of signs of softening in the labor market but it's just kind of beginning we need to see a better alignment of supply and demand in the labor market and see uh more softening in labor market conditions so that inflationary pressures in that sector can can also begin to subside are you surrounded at 500 base tightening already and a little over a year yes well I think widely it's been surprising that inflation has been this persistent but I think the bottom line is that policy hasn't been restrictive enough for long enough to to start to see those effects and and you know the the service sector is not especially interest rate sensitive by the way as opposed to for example the good sector so we wouldn't expect it to be the first to be affected but we would ultimately expect as demand softens and as the labor market conditions go more into balance between supply and demand we would we would expect to see inflationary pressures subside in that sector as well do you guys coordinate Do You Talk Amongst yourselves I just want to follow up on what Jay said because I I think he's completely right and I think that the the this is what I call the Catch-22 issue where we have a cat unexpected catch down where manufacturing eventually will align or services will align on manufacturing and that would be the logical consequence of the the lack time that it takes for services to align with Manufacturing and to you know see prices go down in that sector the catch up is that of of Labor because it is as Jay said labor intensive it's generally relatively low productivity and low skilled jobs in in those sectors and also those jobs that are going to seek the catching up with pre-covered times and how that catch down catch up will be resolved is going to be critically important for where inflation is heading because if we see inflation going down in the so in that service sector and movement of wages while increasing increasing at a moderate Pace then we would be in a relatively good place but that is totally question mark for the moment yeah it sort of raises the question chair pal about whether we need to see a much higher unemployment rate in the US and you're all dealing with the labor market to finally really break inflation so you know that the way we think about that is that there seems to be a path still for labor market conditions to soften and for demand and Supply to get back into balance without the kind of large job losses that have uh that have happened in many prior cycles and the reason for that is the level of job openings that still exist in the labor market so it's still set 1.7 job openings for for every person who counts as unemployed that has been coming down it's come actually the number of job openings has come down now by almost almost 2 million and as you what you're seeing is you're seeing wage pressures they're still high but they're com they're definitely coming down you're seeing surveys of workers and businesses suggest that the labor market is not as tight as it was a year or two ago so you're seeing a job creation is beginning to come down there are a number of condition that would suggest that we're that we're getting the softening that we need we're getting it slower than we'd expected but nonetheless it's happening so it's still a possibility there but you know they're so it's so uncertain right now that I in my view the the least unlikely case is that we do find our way to better balance with without a really severe downturn I think there's I think there's a significant probability that there will be a downturn as well though but isn't it too not to me the most likely case that's the hard Landing scenario or just this I wasn't even thinking of hard Landing I was thinking of even a even a you know a recession to me is not the most likely case but it's certainly possible and of course many forecasters do predict that is is Europe in recession president Lagarde I mean we've seen two negative quarters of GDP I don't know how you define it I think I think the first quarter of 23 was actually completely flat wasn't uh wasn't negative so technically I think you could argue that we did not see a recession um but it it's it's stagnant say the least and uh and the you know the expectations for Q2 particularly in the industrial sector if I look at PMI numbers um are not are not particularly uh are not giving us great hope that there will be a strong recovery we see a second half of 23 um up from the first half certainly but but moderate we have a 0.9 forecast for the whole for the whole year do you agree with chair Powell do you think you can get away with this tightening cycle without dragging you up into recession our Baseline does not include a recession but it's you know it's part of the uh of of the uh the risk out there are you willing to tolerate a recession for us is that if you go back to last Autumn last November when we did a forecast we were predicting quite a long but quite shallow recession and the economy as I said earlier has turned out to be much more resilient so far now I think you can you know you can sort of point to a number of things that underlie that one of the things I would point to is the fact that we've had a very sharp falling energy crisis in Europe and that obviously has helped with the the whole question of the terms of trade shock that we've been having it's it's it's done quite a bit to reverse that terms of trade shock and that feeds through International income so I'm not surprised that we've you know we've had this uh this reversal in one sense what was surprising but actually very helpful was of course yeah we did have this big Fallen Engine prices on a much better winter frankly than we thought we would have so yeah we're going through this year now and I'm in a more resilient position than I expected so we're not currently forecasting it but obviously we have to watch it very carefully how's the Japanese economy faring I mean it's very exciting if you look at the Japanese stock market at a 30 decade High what's happening fundamentally it's doing fairly well I mean um apart from the contribution from some inventory investment domestic economy is expanding at a pace slightly above potential I think are driven by pentap demand we relaxed pandemic related restrictions all in May and this is a stimulating consumption and investment there's also a green GX DX related business fixed investment taking place so investment is uh fairly strong at the moment we think the economy is going to expand it slightly above potential for some for some time but this of course a lot of uncertainties going forward in including what may happen in in Europe and the United States I asked a few guys coordinated or or talked about monetary policy before I mean is that does that happen should it should it be more coordinated because you're all doing different things right now well I mean it's not Styles I mean obviously what we don't do is say what should we do what should you do because we're all setting a larger policy for our areas and that's the yeah that's the law in all of our areas actually so we don't do that but we do talk a lot and I think it's important I mean it's important at all times but it's particularly important in recent times at the moment because we're facing such big Global shocks we've got common shocks uh you know they differ a little bit in terms of their impact and their effect but there's some huge Global events going on that are affecting all of us so you know I think it's you know we do talk quite a lot and we see each other quite a bit because it's important we do that and you know we share wisdom on how we're sort of interpreting the things that are going on around us we are in a flexible exchange rate Laurel so we do policies independently but of course we we exchange information which is very very valuable do you think that do you think that they are over tightening no no you don't you approve of the of the policy you've had a very tight labor market for a long time in Japan even before coved yes demographic demographics is working in a way to to tighten the labor market for for quite a long plow and it's going to continue this way for a while I mean the economic conversation it gets into an interesting question chair Powell we're now we're wondering you know it easier to fight inflation last year when the economy was doing better but now that we're seeing signs of softness and weakness and Manufacturing and you mentioned the labor market starting to cool off about overdoing it and the risk of overdoing it do you wonder about that or you're still just focused on inflation let me let me say the US economy has actually been quite resilient and the you know the data that we're still seeing including since the last meeting still still is consistent with um you know with an economy that's resilient and growing and albeit at a modest Pace as I mentioned earlier though yes you know there was no question we the first question was how fast should we go and we went pretty fast and we got to a level that is that we believe is restrictive we're in restrictive territory if you if you take the federal funds rate and you subtract you know some forward-looking measure of expected inflation you'll get you'll get a significantly positive real rate meaning we're probably in restrictive territory so and that and I think I think we have steadily slowed the pace of our moves and it's appropriate to do so for one reason because you know we we the more information we get the better decisions we'll make the risks do risks of doing too much versus doing too little become more in Balance I wouldn't say they're in balance yet but they're becoming closer to balance we I still believe they're in like and the committee clearly believes that there's more work to do that there are more rate hikes that are likely to be appropriate though so you think the risk is still of doing too little and not getting control of inflation yes and of course the um but inflation expectations are I don't have to tell you very well anchored no but the thing with the risks is that um there may be social costs associated with restoring price stability the social costs of failing to restore price stability will be higher in in almost all likely cases we've seen what that looks like and we you know it's it's uh it's just something that we have to do it's it's the the you know one of the principal things that Society counts on us to accomplish and and I think we all feel committed to accomplishing it it is it is of course a good thing that inflation expectations have remained anchored all this time but our understanding of inflation expectations is is not a precise one and the longer inflation remains why you know the more more risk there is that inflation will become entrenched in the economy so we have to the you know the the passage of time is not our friend here what about a higher inflation Target I know none of you want to talk about that but on on Wall Street um there's this idea that a lot of things are changing and our economy structurally the onshoring of Supply chains and Chip plants and all of that is going to be expensive and could permanently create higher inflation rates couldn't it president Lagarde w well you know at this point in time and given the the fight that we lead against inflation the yacht sticks that there is the strategy that we've agreed the expectations that we have and the inflation targeting as it has been said there is no way that any of us I think would consider changing the gate post halfway of more than halfway through through that that journey I think it's wonderful to have a forum like sintra which brings together academics and and other than policy makers to actually consider those those ideas and to explore them and to weigh the cost and benefit and all the rest of it but at this point in time I think we have to be as persistent as inflation is persistent and we have to be Resolute and decided and determined in reaching the Target that we have set and not not debate the target uh as as we are running that race but it does raise the question Governor Bailey about how far inflation will come down to it does but let me reinforce what um Christine said what is the inflation Target it is the definition and practice of price stability you know in our in our legislation it is it is what price stability has taken to be that is the two percent Target and I don't think anything has changed in terms of what we mean by Price stability and I think that's a very important point to to start with it's the anchor that we have to always maintain now in terms of bringing it down yes I mean we're facing you know half face and are facing you know the biggest challenge for a very long time but we have to meet that challenge I don't think I don't think it is the right thing to do to say well this is all a bit difficult let's change the target I really don't think that is the right thing to do it I'll be very bad thing to do and I think although I you know I very much agree Christine was saying that yeah there are things we understand about inflation expectations and things we don't understand about inflation expectations I think taking risks of that nature with inflation expectations but also you know fundamentally changing what we mean by Price stability when there's no good reason to do that I think would just be the wrong thing how do you read Governor wada the inflation expectations because and they've crept up in Japan as well yes um we've been for a long time trapped in a zero inflation zero inflation expectations equilibrium so we've been trying very hard to move this to a two percent inflation two percent expectations equilibrium to do so we had to uh the anchor expectations from zero raise inflation expectations and in the future we'll have to re-anchor them at two percent this is a formidable task and now we we are seeing signs that infection expectations are rising but as I said not to the extent that we are fully in in the two percent uh inflation inflation expectations equilibrium it also raises the question you know you mentioned the labor market and some of the post-covid changes about just how covet has distorted the data and has made travel for instance so strong for so long and I wonder you know chair Powell how you look at the covet impact on the economy and how it's changed the way you make forecasts and you think about what's happening right now well I think there are there are changes and we don't know how persistent they will be certainly work from home and you can see the effect on Commercial Real Estate particularly office real estate and the surrounding retail that is suffering in many major cities we don't know how long that will last it it feels like some part of that will be persistent and will last you mentioned the data as well you know we've I guess response rates to a lot of the data that's that we collect and the other organizations Collective the response rates have gone down and you're seeing a lot of volatility in some of these data series more so I would say more so than we've seen historically so the data are a little bit even a little bit foggier than than they usually are um but we'll be you know in terms of what um the effects of covet it's going to have it's going to have long long-term effects on the economy there may be loss of productivity there's certainly been for a generation of of kids some loss of of Education and Training um I think it's hard to say how how persistent all this will be are you are you what is your level of commercial real estate since you mentioned it in the U.S you know it's something that we of course are watching carefully the way it lays out is um um the large Banks don't have large concentrations of commercial real estate so that that's a good place to start a good part A surprisingly large part of exposure to commercial real estate is in the banks that are under 100 billion but there the worry is more banks that have a high concentration and they're relatively few so it's something that we're you know we're carefully monitoring we're in you know Bank supervision has a playbook for this so supervisors are talking to Banks about their concentration real estate and you know what can they do and how do they imagine manage themselves out of this um it's just it's something that we're well aware of it's not a surprise and uh you know we're focusing on it is it one of the reasons you were cautious in the last meeting commercial real estate I wouldn't say so no I just you know generally speaking um you know it was at the last meeting it was about you know what's in the pipeline How Far We've Come what's in the pipeline I will also say that though that the the bank stress that part of it part of the decision in my thinking anyway was the bank's dress that we experienced earlier this year this year there's a fair amount of research showing that when something like that happens Bank credit availability and credit can can move down a little bit with with a bit of a lag so we're watching carefully to see whether that does appear of course tightening and financial conditions is what we're doing intentionally so we have seen Bank credit conditions tighten the question is and we that's that's what we're trying to achieve the question is is is there an another channel of that or a greater amount of that coming from what happened in March we don't really see any evidence of that but I think that's in the back of certainly in the back of my mind to see whether we do see that yeah it gets into the question about lags how how long are lags Governor Bailey and do you expect to see more this is another interesting question in terms of the transmission of our monetary policy decisions so if I can just illustrate it with the UK case and obviously it's not the only part of the transmission mechanism let me be clear but it's an important part to illustrate it with the UK mortgage Market so we've seen a big structural change in the UK mortgage Market since the last tightening cycle of monetary policy which of course accepting passage of time was you know about 20 years ago actually and that change has been a change from a variable rate mortgage Market to a fixed rate mortgage market now I must say Obviously with Jay here um it's not a U.S style fixed rate mortgage Market it's it's uh it's a much shorter uh term it's so the average term is often around five years but we know and we think around about 85 percent of the stock of UK mortgages are now sort of in that that part of the market so we know that the transmission of monetary policy is going to be slower as a result because obviously it depends upon the sort of the timing and the sequence of those those fixed terms coming to an end often so we have to judge that I mean it's another factor and another sort of element of uncertainty that we have to judge when we're taking our decisions which is how much of the tightening that we've already done has come through and how much is yet to come through and we know that you know referring back along we are quite a way into the past isn't going to help us in that respect uh so we have to sort of formulate those views afresh and so it is part of our decision-making calculus is is how much more has to come through when will it come through and also how powerfully will it come through and all those things are things we have to take into consideration and as I said history isn't going to be a great guide for that to give them the change in the market so a year what's a lag well well what you see and of course you can you know you can compute as the sort of the profile of of of mortgages coming up for uh for Renewal renewed terms and we can see that over the next year or so there's you know quite a lot of fixed rate mortgages are coming up for Renewal so yeah we can factor that in um there is another element to save uncertainties to just how that will work its way through how do you think about the lags I think of the log in in three steps if you will the first one is transmission in terms of tightening of the financing terms that are made available and how markets absorb the decisions that we make and on that front we have a good and reasonably rapid transmission we see it in rates we see it in volume of of loans and on both accounts there is a good absorption and a rapid transmission of our monetary policy decision but that's only step one what we need to see is step two and how it materializes on investment by corporate and for households it's predominantly mortgages and for the Euro area it's it's there is a lot of extraordinary because you have markets where mortgages are at fixed rate markets where mortgages are at floating rates some that are real just delivery so many years so we have to we have to look at all those data very carefully but it seems that the transmission is likely to be less rapid than it had been in the past because there are many more fixed rate mortgages now in the Euro area than there was say you know 15 years ago and that's not it we need to see it then you know channel to the third step which is inflation so we want to see that transmission uh strength through step one step two step three and make sure that this is really having an impact in terms of the fight we have against inflation governor do you worry about the impacts the lagged impacts of their policies on the global economy and on your economy oh yes but uh for ourselves we haven't had any serious monetary tightening for three decades huh I was a board member of the blj 25 years ago then the policy rate was about 20 30 basis points now minus 10 basis points so and it doesn't sound like it's changing anytime soon so in terms of that the login the effects of monetary policy could be at least 25 years [Applause] what will happen if we get to normalize policy seriously yeah but we'll have to be very careful here be careful what you wish for I guess so chairpower are you more worried about the lag impacts than they are because they're still hiking rates I don't know I wouldn't want to compare I would say I would just say again so what's what's different this time is actually though that markets move substantially in anticipation of moves so by the time we lift it off in March of of 2022 the two-year had moved from 20 basis points up to 200 basis points so Financial conditions now move in expectation and our community the whole modern communication strategy really helps that a lot so that is different what's what may or may not be different and we also haven't had this kind of tightening in in three decades really we've had tightening but it wasn't wasn't it this looks more like tightening Cycles from you know from the 70s and 80s so um so what we see is is a picture of the literature that has you know that you can you can the older literature says you know a year or two for activity and add a year for inflation there's new literature that says it's much faster than that and I think we just have to use our you know to watch and see what's happening um they're beginning to be uh there are reasons to argue that it would be faster this time or slower this time but I just don't think we know at this stage well it kind of gets it gets into the question about the markets and you're saying that it's a transmission mechanism you're all talking very hawkishly and saying there's more work to be done and we're still worried about inflation the markets pretty much think you're almost done all of you guys what maybe one more hike in July and then done and then into Cuts next year is that wrong president Lagarde you know I look at the data we have at look at the I look at the Mandate we have I look at you know the the transmission lag and we've decided for ourselves that we would use three criterias that's that's what we are focused on of course we are not completely oblivious to what happens in markets but we have to be guided by what the Mandate is what the data delivers and and what criteria we take into account in order to determine our policy and to establish our our stance uh going forward that's the only way to go but I guess you know there is there's Financial conditions and I don't know Governor Baylor are they working against you you're trying to fight inflation and msci world is is up nicely this year well by the way I'm in the market I don't think things were nearly done at the moment and they've got a number of further increases uh priced in for us my response to that will be well we'll see uh because we know as we were saying earlier we're essentially evidence driven in that sense so yeah we'll we'll make our decisions based on that I think you're right to point out as you said earlier and I would draw this point out that there are two parts to this there's where the peak is and then how long it's sustained uh beyond that I think both of those are relevant both of those are things that will I mean sorry to State the blinds and the obvious will emerge with time um but I've always been interested that the market thinks that the peak will be quite short-lived in a world where we're dealing with more persistent inflation us a few weeks ago Market was primed for cuts I I assume you were pleased to see that that's no longer the case so if you go back and look at um forecasts from the participants on my committee on inflation you'll see you know we've been consistently thinking this is going to take some time it's going to be a process that will take longer than we would have hoped and it may well be a bumpy process but markets have gone back and forth between pricing and what appearing to price in pretty quick declines in inflation to get coming back to being more in alignment with with the thinking of the committee and that's where we are right now is closer to where committee participants are but as Christine said you know we don't we're not focused on what the Market's forecast is we we have our forecast all of us who are on the committee we work hard to develop an understanding of what's driving inflation and what the path forward for inflation is we make our best estimates and that still is that it's going to take some time it's just going to take some time inflation has proven to be more persistent than we expected not less and of course if that day comes when when that turns around that'll be great but we don't expect that we don't plan for it so is it counterpart of stock market Allied the bond market has rallied I mean the market is fighting the fed the market thinks you're you're closer to the end and I I mean that that does make Financial conditions easier you can't fight the FED but they're fighting the FED is that a problem I don't see it that way I don't look at it that way at all honestly we have different jobs you know our job is to bring inflation down to two percent and sustain maximum employment that's our job that's what we think about we look at the data and that's what we care about and markets react different parts of the market react in different ways it's just uh it's just not something that is a principal focus of our work but it did seem last year like you wanted a weaker of stock market you use the word pain at Jackson Hole it seemed like you were trying to communicate that Financial conditions should tighten and less so this year is that right not really no of course or we work through financial conditions that's what we do it our our rich and our you know all the things we do and say work through financial conditions to affect the real economy that's that's how it works um but it's broader Financial conditions so we're not focused on any one market we're never thinking out let's let's do this to this Market it's just in general let's communicate what we want to do and and um and why we want to do it and financial conditions adjust and that's how that's that's really all we can do we do not Target particular parts of the market although of course we do monitor market conditions so you don't care what the stock market's doing I look at broader Financial conditions it's one of one of many many conditions along with interest rates credit spreads you know everything all of the conditions and the availability of credit it's one of many many things again we don't we don't focus on any one thing as as the key thing Governor weather how important is it is it to you the mark S as it relates to financial conditions and the mechanism for monetary policy I mean the stock market stocks bonds currency so stock prices have been rising fairly sharply since since spring this year um stock prices theoretically are affected by interest rates and investors field of economy we haven't changed interest rate so uh probably investors have become more optimistic about the future of the economy of course we don't want serious Financial imbalances in the economy so we keep monitoring how do you think about President Lagarde the risks to the economy especially geopolitical risks you know in in Europe now we have this we were all glued last weekend to the news out of Russia and the Wagner rebellion and we're wondering if now political instability in Russia presents a further geopolitical risk to the global economy but I think I look at it we all look at it and we are all concerned about geopolitical development um by virtue of the profession that we have because it does have an impact on um on supply chain doesn't impact it does have an impact on trade it does have an impact on the uncertainty and we can only say that at this point in time uncertainty is high overall and a big factor of that uncertainty has to do with the geopolitical difficulties and and and conflict or quasi conflicts that Bond at the moment so yes we are looking at that but you know do we have to take a to make a moral judgment on this that or the other this is not this is not the job that we have but it clearly has an impact on on how the economy is going to change and and be transformed and whether it will have an impact that is inflationary or disinflationary I think is is also to be determined I think there will be various schools of thoughts along those lines yeah I wonder how you think about next winter I mean Europe got lucky we hope it's mild what if it's not but but storage is what 69 Michael the expert on Isabel's panel said that 69 and we are going to hit 95 by the end of the summer so that should put us in a good position for the winter but I'll say one thing which probably we had not factored in sufficiently and maybe that applies to to all of us it's the resilience of our economies and the resilience of uh the entrepreneur the corporates the the way in which we we have sort of in a matter of a few months reorganized ourselves um you know just think one year back everybody thought that the the German model was dead that Europe was going to be completely uh on its knees well these things have have not happened and and the resilience has has been demonstrated at all at all levels of society totally agree with Christine on this um that resilience I mean you see it when you talk to businesses I spend a lot of time talking to businesses and I've spent a lot of time in recent months talking to food producing businesses to try to understand the sort of yeah the the the slower than frankly we expected decline in the rate of food inflation and one of the things that I get quite consistently and this is where sort of the Ukraine Russia situation comes through for real is they say well you know last year we bought forward our sort of supplies to a much greater extent than we would normally do because we weren't not confident we could actually get them consequences we've locked in higher prices for you know sometimes they say six months to me and that of course is affecting the you know the passage of of of inflation particularly through food prices in this case so these things do have a very direct effect and are continuing to have a very direct effect actually Central Bankers can do so we need to do is understand it that's a good starting point um well we have to then just keep crushing demand but you can't do anything policy I mean we have to design policy and you know take our decisions with the best yeah we always take policy you know we always take political decisions on a forward-looking basis so we have to do it with the best information and understanding we can get of these things so do you still so to what extent I guess is the the war in Ukraine driving supply side inflation for materials around the world well following on from what I was just saying I think the conclusion I draw from that is um and this is what the businesses tell me is yes we are going to see actually a fall in the rate of food price inflation for instance but it is taking longer than we expected so that's what we have to factor in and decide how best to in a sense to respond to that with military policy it's not just Russia Governor WETA also you know we're following the tensions that have increased between the U.S and China between Europe and China do you think that's having a material impact on global growth well at least uh there's a tendency to relocate production sites out of say China into other Asian economies including to some extent Japan so in the short front this is uh having a small positive effect on the Japanese economy through a business fixed investment but in the long run there will be inefficiencies all over the place so uh we'll see so Japan's a beneficiary of the flight out of China uh in in one sense and in the short prom but in the long run I'm not sure I mean chairpal how do you how do you think about it's it's obviously a risk and it hurts trade how do you think about the U.S China relationship as it impacts the economy we don't have any role to play in in the relationships between the countries but um you know China is a very large important economy it's a big trading partner mainly consisted of of us buying things that are made in China I don't think um and of course in the Chinese economy um came out of the covid and looked like it was recovering strongly now it doesn't doesn't look like that it looks like it's slowed down and there there's some issues there from the U.S standpoint at the more at the margin that probably means a little bit less Global demand I wouldn't say it's a first order uh consideration for us though Chapel reference a disappointing nature of the Chinese economic recovery how does that play into Europe's recovery or the global growth picture well first of all I think we have to be attentive to the emerging market economies at large at the moment they are they are producing about 60 60 percent of global growth some of which is now a bit more focused on domestic development and consumption and less so on trade but if you look at the trade volume numbers from China to many other countries particularly the advanced economies that has not changed significantly so the trade volume is is still significant and the you know I'm not breaking any news here the Chinese authorities themselves say that they're likely to have a five percent growth uh this year in 23 rather than the six percent that they had initially forecasted so that will have an impact given the size of the Chinese economy on global growth at Large yeah we have we have to you know when when we when we do our projections when when we look at the economy we look at the global economy and then we sort of narrow down and zoom on the European economy and the Euro area in particular but everything that happens in China in the United States in the UK and Japan in emerging market economies actually matter for us because we are strongly interrelated and have been trading with each other for a long time and if anything we've learned from kovid in addition to the pain and suffering from for many it's the fact that we are vastly dependent for the supply of rare earth and various metals that will be critical for the development of the economy of tomorrow if we decide to firmly go towards the green economy that that we should be aiming for you know as an open economy one of the things that's just exactly as Christine says in terms of how we do our process one of the things that we spend quite a bit of time on is World Export prices now actually in the recovery from coven of course this was the supply chain shop we saw quite a big contribution to Goods price inflation from World Export prices we're now seeing those prices definitely start to weaken uh so that will be another determinant going forward of policy a Central Bank of Banker plan for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical political front I mean if China invades Taiwan then what what is what does a central Banker do is that is that a can is there a contingency for that chair pal s to achieve our our legal mandates if that happens got that got that bed speak down you'll hold a special meeting special no I mean it's a volatile world we live in right and then we do have at every in every fomc cycle we we look at our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations and they simulate you know different things it's not so much geopolitical events though it's more different ways the economy could play out and we all all the participants read those and think about them and talk about them and they come at come up in our meetings we talk about them so it's very helpful because you you can't get too focused on the modal path in a world where it's just very hard to predict the economy even when even in normal times it's very hard to predict the economy let alone times like today what sort of simulations do you talk about I'm going to leave that to your imagination I bet I can think of a few president Lagarde chair Paula did talk about I mean one of the things that yours in the US this year and I Know It forced some of you into action to shore up banking systems are are we in good shape now is the is the global and European Financial system in in good shape have we healed you know I can only speak to the to the banks over which we have supervision and those are the the your area um the European Banks but I'm looking at the Euro area specifically we have been you know enforcing Basel III to the entire banking sector the capital ratios are are very high 15.3 percent if I recall the leverage coverage for the liquidity coverage ratio very high as well so we have not experienced um you know the the turmoil or the difficulties in Europe and Europe does not include Switzerland thank you very much um but we are we are extremely attentive we reinforce the the stress testing constantly we are very I'm very pleased to see that the Basel III agreement has now been reached as I understand between Parliament the council and the commission so that we can actually roll out Basel three uh with as limited exception as possible and we have to continue doing that job any lessons that you took Governor Bailey from what happened earlier this year let me start with about with a little bit of backdrop I think it's upon drawing what Christine was saying I think it's important to in a sense reflect the fact that the the regulatory changes were made after the global financial crisis have paid off in the sense that we have we've been fruits and we are going through some huge economic shocks and you know the banking system certainly I can speak again as Christine as I can speak for the UK banking system is resilient to them and it's doing what we want it to do which is support the economy not the other way around to be honest that's going back to the crisis so that's you know that's an important starting point now I think there are uh important lessons from and of important issues that we have to reflect on from what happened um Christine made her subtle reference to Switzerland um well you know there's a huge sense of irony in the British Christie I look I mean there is obviously a question posed by credits Credit Suisse you know handling which is are the resolution plans for the major banks that we spent the last 15 years developing fit for purpose or are they not fit for purpose um and if well come to that if they're not fit for purpose then of course we cannot sit here and say all's fine um because clearly we're going to be regrettable though it would be after 15 years of work we're going to have to sort of you know tear them up and start again now I'll give you my view on it I'm going to say this I don't I have not yet heard the case made to me which suggests that they are not fit for purpose I'm going to state that but I'm not going to leave it there we have got to have you know we've got a sense we've got to have this out and decide whether you know it goes one way or the other my starting point is I remain to be convinced of that assertion but we can't let it rest there I think we've all got the question of you know how our banking systems handle you know a steep rise in interest rates we yeah we do stress tests to test that we've got Capital Provisions for you know related to that and we've all got to think hard I think the third thing I'd say is we've got to think hard about the speed of run question but I think we've got to think pretty carefully about that because you know if we go to extremes on that argument we're essentially heading to narrow Banking and I you know speaking of us I don't think that is a sensible place to head to so we've got to think quite yeah quite quite carefully but quite I think creatively about how we maintain the banking system that does what we wanted to do which is create Credit in the economy creates you know assets that are naturally illiquid and deal with the speed of run question and we've got to take that one on we're actually going to get stress tests this afternoon in the U.S um which I won't ask you about chair Powell but I will ask if you think that the U.S Regional Banks are resilient right now I do I so I think first of all I think the whole the overall banking system is strong and resilient with very high levels of capital and liquidity very double the levels that they were at and then some before the crisis so the the innovations that we put in place the regulatory changes in higher Capital those are all in place in the United States as well so when it comes to the you know the events we had earlier this year with three banks that had you know pretty pretty idiosyncratic business models and funding models as well I think we need to learn lessons and and you know we're not hiding from that at all we understand there's they're going to be need to be regulatory strengthening of both Regulatory and supervisory practices as it relates to institutions of that of that General size I would say you got a lot of questions on that from Congress last week that's mostly what they wanted to talk about they want to make sure that you aren't well in part not going to increase Capital levels and and sort of Choke off the small and Regional banks in this country and make it hard for them to compete so the U.S has something like 4 500 Banks it's the you know the most banks by a pretty big margin I think of any any major economy and and we think it's a real benefit to have Banks of different sizes and business models that serve local communities and offer different products as well as as having the large Banks and the large banks in the United States are very strong well capitalized a lot of liquidity and they've been a source of strength I think through the last couple of uh events so the um uh I think it's important that that whatever changes we do make keep in mind the need to preserve the business models of these of of smaller Banks and not just of the largest banks any concerns for you Governor wait on the on the strength of the Global Financial system at this point as we go through this I don't know once in several decades tightening period yeah I can only talk about Japanese Banks uh I think they are well capitalized they're capitalized they have enough liquidity it's true that some smaller Banks Regional banks are sitting on non-negligible amount of valuation losses and their security Holdings but on average that's about one percent of their core one capital so it would be okay but if we do get to normalize our monetary policy because we get into going to the two percent inflation rate equilibrium in the sense I discussed earlier then rates may go up by large margins and we will have to be careful uh we'll have to be carrying out all sorts of stress tests I think I also wanted to ask you if you go into a more North stance away from negative rates when the yield curve control if you how you'll manage the risk of the the government's enormous financing needs and whether that's a concern that you think about lail we keep saying that's the business of the government and the diet to to to create a sustainable government Finance fiscal policy in general I'm curious if you guys will bite on this um is it helpful right now or or hurtful president Lagarde you know everybody has to do what everybody has to do man's got to do what a man's got to do monetary policy um makers have to decide on monetary policy and fiscal policy makers have to have to do their job it is true that there are circumstances where working hand in hand and supporting each other has proved helpful I think we had a very good demonstration this morning in one of the lectures that we had I think what we have very clearly stated as a governing Council of the whole Euro system is governments please it's time now to roll down the measures that you had decided for kovid and for energy purposes and that you adopt a path that will take you to better sustainability of your Public Finance so we hope to see that and you know the fiscal space that has been allowed for the various non-conventional fiscal support that were decided back in 22 and 23 uh very much should be rolled back in the course of 23 and certainly should not be expanded in 24 bearing another major shock but that that's that's our recommendation and we make it very clear in our monetary policy statement and have made it very clear in the last statement that we issued we learned in the UK what was it last year when when monetary and fiscal policy don't work together it can be a big problem well because what we had to do within the UK last Autumn was actually Financial stability issue and we dealt with it and um it was very clear that that was that was the issue we dealt with we didn't do with anything more than that it's not our job to to get involved in fiscal policy in that sense and yeah we always as you know when setting monetary policy take fiscal policy as announced uh as a conditioning assumption for our for our decisions so I don't go beyond that in terms of commenting on The Stance of fiscal policy I mean the one thing I've said in recent times I don't mind saying it again is that I welcome the fact that you know the chancellor is is you know very much using fiscal policy to try to address the structural issues in the economy uh that's not a comment about the stance of fiscal policy about you know more or less it's a comment about the fact that going back to the point you know I've made about Labor markets uh you know and and actually the the low potential rate of growth in the UK economy that the more we can do to tackle that frankly the better what about you chair Powell I mean there's been a lot of fiscal largesse in the United States the kovid stimulus and and now even new policies that are just filtering through like inflation reduction act infrastructure chips they're still American Rescue plan act money getting doled out isn't that making your life harder well so echoing my colleagues our our assignment is to deliver price stability kind of regardless of the stance of fiscal policy and we don't play a role formal or informal in advising the fiscal authorities there are other agencies in Washington that do that and that that's really not our job I will add though uh without getting without crossing any lines that you know the spending during the pandemic was was very high and it's come down and so we look at the fiscal impulse from the level of spending and it's really not Material it may even be slightly contractionary but let's just say it's flat you you identify those bills and I think you are seeing some of that money showing up in construction this Construction Construction numbers it's supporting construction activities particularly the infrastructure bill but I wouldn't say that that's a you know if you if you look at where the inflation is in the economy I wouldn't say that that's an important driver of inflation or something that we that we think about or consider so you mentioned the consumer so the excess savings you think have pretty much come down where do you think the U.S consumer is headed consumer the consumer had savings from two sources one was just that the fact that people couldn't travel and couldn't do couldn't kind of spend money on services that was a lot of it and there were also the fiscal transfers that happened and those I mean there are many different estimates I would say for for people at the lower end of the income Spectrum who tend to have a high marginal propensity to consume most but not all of that money is gone so there's a residual there's certainly some residual support for spending in that in you know in laws that passed at the beginning and during the pandemic but that's again I wouldn't say that's today the the main driver I think if you look at the strength of the labor market still creating more jobs than than there are new entrants to the uh to the labor market you're and wages are still pretty high so you're you're driving up disposable income and that is driving consumption that's driving the economy wanted to also ask you guys about the the balance sheet very hot topic Governor WETA how do you think about the expansion of the balance sheet and how how much is too much well it's a tough question to to answer at the moment uh we are using government security purchases to to hit the range for the long-term interest rate we have set which is zero plus minus 50 basis points so the size of the balance sheet is an endogenous variable the rest of you are kind of kind of in shrink it shrink mode in a balance sheet or roll-off mode how you've been more aggressive Governor Bailey how has it has it gone smoother than you expected well so far I don't want 10 feet it's gone very smoothly actually by the way the reason that you say more aggressive just to be clear is that we've got a longer duration of uh Bonds in our portfolio government bonds in our portfolio so leaving it to an organic runoff would mean a lot longer runoff for us I think that's why you're out right now so that's why we're studying and so we the target we set for the year the 80 billion Target was but it was the sum of the natural runoff plus the difference between the target we set and and that and it's that element that we're doing as active sales so that's gone I I would say very smoothly actually so far I'm very happy with the way it's gone I think the second question that you know we're certainly looking at it actively of course is just how far will we go and I look at it particularly in terms of the stock of reserves now in the system before we hit what I would call the equilibrium level of reserves now we may go on selling the QE stock below that because we would shift our operations around I would expect to do that but it's it's important to focus on where we think that sort of natural level of the balance sheet which won't be constant over time by the way but where we think that natural level of the balance sheet is relative to where we are today how do you think about it president Lagarde and is there pressure building for you to go faster when it comes I would say that the uh the interest rate is the primary tool that we're using at the moment um second there is a almost a contractual uh reduction of the balance sheet of the ECB because there is a reimbursement of the teltro that we had put in place during the pandemic and and that is actually happening now if if not yesterday or the day before third as of the first of July we will stop any reinvestment under the asset purchase program so there is a a natural declining of the balance sheet of the ECB which is only you know a first step we are discussing our operational framework hopefully we will be able to complete that work in the next six to nine months and that will really determine the size the desirable size of our balance sheet which is always a factor of also the circumstances and the situation we are in but that is coming is it going smoother than you thought it would as well chair Powell QT say it's go it's working as we as we had hoped and expected it would work we were you know we have a past entirely passive program as treasuries and mortgage-backed securities mature they roll off subject to a cap and it's been moving along uh at a pace the underlying Pace if you hit the cap is about a trillion dollars a year and reserves appear to be quite ample so it has a ways to go is there anything that would make you speed that up or slow that down you know with the we always say that we're prepared to adjust in light of evolving conditions but I don't see anything that would cause us to want to do that right now okay so in the in the moments that we had left I know we've talked about a lot of the risks we've talked a lot about um some of the concerns out there I want to hear it's some optimism maybe and and what makes you makes you feel I mean you none of you are really talking Doom and Gloom on recession but what what makes you president Lagarde optimistic right now however you want to interpret the question personally lots of things that make me happy and I hope for all of you um you know I'll just mention one one uh one success which I'm really proud of and I'm very proud that Fabio Panetta was the one who led that exercise um on behalf of the entire group today the European commission has published the legislative draft for the European digital put for the for the digital Euro for the for our cbdc and that gives me hope because I think that it it it really demonstrates the capacity to innovate the capacity to work as a team the capacity to anticipate what digital payments will be tomorrow now some people are very skeptical and they say well you're taking risk Financial stability possible runs that will be accelerated by this and all I would say is number one you have to be ready you want to keep the sovereignty of your currency uh you know so many years ago who would have thought about all the users and the applications that you have on your cell phone none of us so being prepared being ready paying attention to what actually Europeans and particularly young Europeans want in terms of of currency and form of currency is something that we are we have been doing that we have accelerated that we have not decided for for sure but at least the legislative piece is on the table there will be a lot of discussion and that's in a way also the result one of the good benefit of kovid we have talked about the downside of covid and the consequences but the way in which so many of us have become more digital better equipped probably more productive it will be demonstrated probably with a like time but when I look at my member states the countries that were least digital have really traveled very fast to become much more digital so that's a good reason to Hope and the resilience demonstrated but I have mentioned that earlier on by everybody from the from the the individuals to the entrepreneur to the corporates to to governments we in Europe decided to get together to borrow jointly um despite the fact that it's laborious that it's painful that it gives a lot of things to report about two journalists is also a sign of progress and just to be clear a digital Euro will happen when that will be decided by the governors in governing Council we will decide that at the end of October and then there will be another phase of piloting experimenting fine tuning because if and when we go as will be decided by the governing council at large we want to get it right so we're not going to do a you know a half start or a fake uh start who will we will move with with success what makes you optimistic Governor Bailey well actually I'm going to build on Christine's theme because as well as we're also working on retail digital Euro we're actually also working on wholesale digital digital money and completely rebuilding our wholesale payment and settlement system in the Bank of England to enable what could be a complete revolution in the infrastructure of financial markets and trade finance and this is very exciting so we put the wiring in a lot the weekend before last the engine should go in next year and you know this this has enormous potential to change uh change the world and at the wholesale level as well it's interesting you know I feel like the world has moved on to AI Beyond digital payments are you guys incorporating AI into your thinking about economies and your toolboxes I think we're all on a learning curve I don't know I feel quite old when it gets to this but um yes I mean we're looking at it in two respects certainly one is uh what three respects one is how it will affect the economy to how we can use it ourselves uh both in our sort of you know analytical functions but also actually in our operational functions um and yeah we're looking at them but we're looking at it I would say with very open eyes you can see the strengths and you can see that you know the current weaknesses of it and of course it moves though it moves very rapidly so yes we're having some activity for ourselves we're having to you know devote quite a bit of time now to what the potential is for that chair Powell is AI one of the things that makes you optimistic so on AI we're just doing what everyone else is doing we're trying to get smart about it and and it's gonna it's obviously has huge possibilities Technologies tend to you know propagate through the economy fairly slowly and this when maybe the exception maybe not I don't know but it's something that we're spending a lot of time on way too early for conclusions I I wouldn't use optimism but I would say this and answer your first question which is when inflation first arrives it's it's really due to very strong demand for goods and goods Goods pipelines that just aren't working and shortages so that's where it comes from it wasn't about the labor market at all right or very much as we get to this stage into the looking forward we think it will be significantly about getting the labor market supply and demand back in alignment I would say it's a positive thing I'll say it that way it's a constructive thing that we've been able to raise rates 500 basis points with the expectation of going further and we still have a very strong labor market but nonetheless one that is in fact Cooling in in just the way we would have hoped which is to say through things like lower job openings job openings are coming down the quits level has returned to its pre-pandemic level wages you know if you look at employment compensation index or average hourly earnings they've moved down about one percent towards more still very high but towards more so a more sustainable level that's consistent with two percent inflation so I would just say that's the makings of if that process continues in a gradual way without really any effect on employment the longer that goes on the better and in a way that's that's I take that as a very constructive path it is not guaranteed but the fact that this is really there and that's what's been happening for a year well more than a year into our tightening cycle I would take as a positive thing and perhaps a hopeful one for the future just be careful not to overdo it right right what about you governor let's see uh it's other central banks are thinking of issuing digital Monies we are taking a different route and we have decided to issue new currency bills starting next year it's an online paper this will cheer up Public's confidence in in the boj more seriously uh as I said wages have started to rise uh at two percent or so for the first time in three decades uh more importantly we are seeing as a sign of a change in inflation expectations changes in price wage setting behavior of businesses so previously our businesses hesitated to increase prices because if they did others will not follow suit now say they are raising wages because if they didn't they will have trouble recruiting workers because others are raising wages uh we think this is a good sign for us so the topic of sintra of this isibu forum is is inflation volatility so now is prediction time in one year when we're when hopefully I'll be invited back um president inflation rate in the UK is what our last forecast we expected inflation to come back to Target towards the end of next year we're going to start the next forecast in about two weeks time I was trying to yeah yeah do you get to two percent by this time next year president Lagarde you said a year from now right yes okay so the the projection we have is uh three percent for next year headline will you be satisfied with that I wanted to be timely we all wanted to be timely timely okay chair Powell I don't see us getting back to two percent this year or next year you don't you don't no I I see us making progress steady progress on this is core inflation deadline inflation is is coming down now is lower than core but for core inflation I I don't see us getting to two percent this year or next year I see us getting there the year after 2025 yeah core inflation two percent so you're going to be restricted for a long time no we well we will be restrictive as long as we need to be but um you know if you're if you're if rates if inflation is coming down sharply and is and we're confident that it's on a path to two percent you know that would be a different situation you would begin to think about about uh about loosening policy but we're a long way from that that's not something we're thinking about now or in the near future Governor weather are you going to get to the two percent by your measure so uh all projection as of April inflation protection has uh for 23 fiscal year 1.8 1.8 headline 2.0 for 24. now uh they this makes my job of justifying underlying like the inflation rate of rate staying below two percent a bit uh harder but uh we keep saying that our we we don't have a lot of confidence in this 20 2024 forecast this may change uh depending on the data to come out do you guys feel um relative you've been through a lot of hard moments you know covid and the inflationary Challenge and and now we're trying to see economies weekend do you feel like it's a particularly difficult point in your Central Bank Journeys Governor Bailey yeah until we get information back down to Target yeah we've got a very big job to do and it's uh it's it's a job we have to do well that's stressful but I think you know look we sign up for this job um and you don't get to determine the conditions that you do it in so we just got to do it I mean that's our job for you president likewise man's got to do what a man's got to do we signed up for the job and a woman's got to do what a woman's got to do as well thank you chair pal haven't seen you stressed sorry I haven't seen you stressed we have a job to do we know that we know that we know that Society is counting on us to do this job and and that it really matters if price stability can matter for decades it can benefit for people over time people over time I think we all know that and and we'll we'll do the things that we need to do to restore it and Governor wait I was feeling good I didn't know that there was going to be so much trout traveling and so many press conferences welcome to the world of Central Banking thank you all so much for taking the time today and all my questions it was a pleasure thank you thank you well thank you for that excellent closing panel to the event I'm sorry you did a great job of chair in there and thanks a lot to all of our panelists very nicely done we learned a lot about your commitment to stay firm until you hit two percent however long it takes we learned about the strength of Labor markets and the resilience too of the economy more broadly as well as some very very very long lags so with that in mind I want to turn now to the final part of our program which about is about another way in which the center of forum has been persistent and that is in seeking the young economists who can provide answers to the challenges future Generations face so the final part of our program is to award the prize chosen by an expert panel as well as taking your votes into account for the best paper by some of the most promising young economists in the world Madame Lagarde I'll leave it up to you to announce the winner thank you very much Claire and please do not go especially the economists in the room because here is the future and the future is those 10 Young economists PhD students who are shortlisted from many other applicants and came from all over the world to present their research here in sintra it is really important to discover and encourage young talents these people will be the bright minds of tomorrow they will lead our economy through future challenges the papers that you shared you're all in the back of the room over there the papers that you shared and that you presented to many of us earlier today offer fresh perspective on challenging Central Banking issues that we face today such as changes in inflation in inflation expectations green investment transmission of monetary policy open banking customer data sharing you name it all submissions were assessed based on the academic quality and policy relevance many many thanks to all of you who rated the papers and thus helped us to select the winner I would also like to thank the members of the selection committee for evaluating them namely Jordi Galli professor at Pompeo fabra University who presented this morning who discussed the paper this morning to Elena professor at London Business School and to my EC colleagues Philip Hartman Isabel vonstinkist and to all of you thank you very very much now what I would like to do before I announce the winner of the trophy and the 10 000 euro check that goes with it sorry we'll transmit digitally probably um I think we should give all of them a big round of applause and recognize them [Applause] so I know that this is a bit nerve-wracking for some of you um but it's time now for the announcement of the one who is actually receiving the trophy the trophy is going to come along I'm sure somewhere other trophies here excellent very good so the winner of this competition is Lucas Nord Lucas congratulations [Applause] so for those of you who did not have a chance to listen to his presentation and to have a look at his uh is a big table he's Luca is a PhD student at the European University Institute in Firenze and he is receiving this award for his paper on I quote shopping demand composition and equilibrium prices the paper analyzes how the degree to which consumers shop for bargains influences retailers price setting strategies Lucas finds that this mechanism reduces inequality and helps to explain the amplification of aggregate shocks through reactions in firm marks up our warmest congratulations to you Luca for this very well deserved award and let me now give you so you can hold it and be photographed with it you are here receiving the trophy of the ECB Forum 2023 congratulations [Applause] you can thanks a lot president Lagarde and thank you also to the jury who selected me or by the public vote I guess all of you thank you very much it's really

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Id: lf3M7Quc08E

Length: 92min 10sec (5530 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 28 2023