Post-Fed Breakdown | Bloomberg Surveillance | May 2, 2024

[Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul S why are we upset if we're creating Jobs inflation's still a thing out there for the everyday consumer with Lisa Mato on markets the economic calendar jam-packed today and Michael bar with news tensions between the US and China have eated up even more the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Tom Keane Paul to get you through an apple Thursday Apple earnings this afternoon do you think chairman Paul will be hanging on the press conference he should he's probably looking to upgrade uh his phone and his watch and his wearables and all that kind of stuff but it would be it's important for Apple because they've got a China issue uh both from a enduser market they sell a lot of stuff into China plus it's a big part of the supply chain and they got to get investors more comfortable with the China risk I looked at their financials this morning just to try to pretend I was Paul Sweeney and um boy they meant money even without gross or Revenue they just they just meant money it'll be inter can see there if we get a dividend increase like we did not get a dividend from Amazon that's part of our theme today lots of other themes as well but yes a look back teens we to the FED meeting yesterday Ludovic uh suban will be with us here in a moment with Alan to go over some of that hopium I saw lots of hopium yesterday yeah I know you missed it but the very least uh I I think fed chairman pal tried to take take the rate hike off the table and I guess that's we're seeing in the markets here the S&P up about 710 to 1% in future we saw some improvement there I mean the Bell weather for me is a 10e r s for those of you on YouTube you can tell I'm getting set up here I got the Tang zero you know we got that going thank you Eric for the Tang zero but the the I'm getting the s's looking a little you know is it hot over here nothing but the best up on a six floor s tangs it's like you know we're like back to the 60s anyways thank you for being with us on Apple carplay on YouTube go to Bloomberg podcast search there and also requested the entire show including what we do with John Tucker the entire show will be out 23 p.m. this afternoon across YouTube Bloomberg uh podcast so we got a replay going now which is a good thing we're in the Interactive Broker studios here with Futures up 36 with a Bloomberg business flash John Tucker oh in breaking news uh the maker of expensive cloth hangers pelaton uh announcing that Barry McCarthy stepping down as the CEO and they also are reducing the head count once again uh some other earnings this morning madna reporting a narrow first quarter loss than Wall Street had expected Apollo Global Management also checking in reporting higher first quarter profit The Firm raking in more management fees and originated a record $40 billion a private credit that of course a key area for growth uh stock futures looking up this morning Traders uh taking a little comfort from the fed's signal that there's no plan to raise interest rates now remember we were talking about rate Cuts as early as March that's no longer the case of course uh the FED struck a more dumbest note than some had expected and then uh of course investors looking ahead to earnings from Apple we're going to get that at the close of regular trading in the pre-market right now shares of Apple they were up about 1% overall the down Futures 170 points higher that's up half a perc S&P Min Futures 33 points higher that's up 7/10 %. the NASDAQ futures they're up 9/10 we're coming back right now yeah you want me to do treasuries yeah please two-year yield which I'm we call that the Sweeny yield yes the more policy reactive two basis points lower 4.93% let me throw in the Yen cuz that's a little weaker right now it's up to 1557 we check the markets all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm Not Lisa Mato John Tucker I I got to ask here I mean I mean I know you have the peltin bike plus and do you find the rotating touchscreen really helps it does because I can hang Ties on that right the suits go on the right handlebar and then the pants go on the left this is where we need Lea cuz I think she has three in the house we have two you have two in the house we have the bike and the treadmill you use them or are they my girlfriend on it every day every day yeah she's like 1,800 rides or something crazy she's one of those crazy people up 10% yeah up 10% pre-market trading Thank you Rich Drew Barry McCarthy stepping down as CEO at peleton we'll touch on that through the morning that's a Sweeny stock that he follows carefully this is an important conversation because you saw the market explode like 12 seconds after uh chairman Paul started talking yesterday then it gave away again and now we're up again Future's up 30 right now my head is spinning let's get some clarity now we do that with Ludovic San Chief Economist at alian here and try to pick up the pieces off the FED meeting my operative word Ludovic was hope there was a lot of Hope yesterday from the chairman is that how you saw it um look I I think it was a pretty uh interesting meeting right because uh remember people were expecting even a hike yesterday so now he's just confirming I guess that the economy in the US is surprising him every week more and more and I think the the hope is now that there's going to be a cut sometime but uh the the lack of Hope is that it may not be as soon as expected right so for the bond markets for the for the for the bond uh you know Vigilantes this is a bad news yeah yeah I look at it and I guess it goes and John froh mentioned this yesterday the speakers starting with Austin ghouls be are ever more important I don't buy it for a minute Ludovic do you believe that the individual fed speakers shape the direct policy of the fomc that's that's the one billion dollar question no I don't I don't think so they give the range I I I call that it's like you know um tail shooting just like they give a bit the range so that markets can get a bit of forward guidance when they don't have forward guidance anymore that's the data dependency right the biggest mistake in the monetary policy of the past decade is this data dependency it gives no ability for Market to get any idea before the meeting so I think the speakers now are trying to do that range guesstimate uh before the chairman speaks and give the final words you know Ludovic are you are you surprised at all or were you surprised yesterday that fed chairman J palal really seem to go to some length to take the raid hike opportunity off the table I'm I'm I don't know if I'm I'm surprised by the QT for for me the announcement to uh stop you know to to uh slow down was maybe the biggest surprise I'm I'm what I'm interested in in yesterday is the comments from Powell uh that that um you know there is no sign of any abatement because because we know it lies with two things immigration and fiscal and so to a certain extent it was I don't know if it was a a reckoning of an absence of power on what is left of inflation I think for me that was maybe this powerless uh you know for chairman Powell you know comments this powerless moment for for him saying look I got to do much you know numbers are good but it's not in my hands yeah so Ludovic I mean this all kind of ties into this the broader economic outlook here we're going to get an important data point tomorrow with the the labor market what's your view of the US Labor Market that's clearly going to be something that chairman fed uh fed chairman J pal is going to focus on look I think estimates are you know around 230,000 uh jobs for the for for the April read so that's slightly lower than what we had in March but look you know an employment rate is record low 3.8% I think hourly earnings are also expected to increase by another 0.3% or even 0.4% so so the you know the first thing there is no great resignation it's the great stay I think that's what link Burger says I think that's very clear and the second thing is this um this powering through immigration of the um of the labor markets in the US so so this going to be another strong read it's it's good news for the US economy for for an election year that is so polarizing I'm very surprised and impressed by the lack of modal through if you will is the focus on inflation too much I just sat there yesterday trying to keep track of any time anybody mentioned jobs in America the American labor economy and trust me folks Paul and I know a lot of people are really suffering out there things have tightened up in many parts of America but Ludovic just as a final question here should there be more fed chat on labor versus inflation um I don't think so I think I think the FED chat should focus on inflation because labor is uh much less um you know solid a way to look at it what what is good labor market for the us right now you know is is it you remember when um um Yellen tried to address the distributional effect of Labor in several of her speeches and when she transitioned to treasury she took that with her I think it's a much more FAL set of indicators that would lose even more markets Ludovic thank you so much Ludovic San with Alan off of the FED meeting yesterday huge response here to the peltin CEO somebody said have I ever been in a peltin I said I've been I've been on the saddle at the million dooll Cowboy Bar I saw that in Jacksonville had a beverage $7 Martini it was great and I'm on the saddle in Jackson Hall I've done that but I haven't been on a peltin let's go to a peltin expert with our news in New York City Michael bar thank you very much Tom PA and John Police began removing barricades at a pro Palestinian demonstrators encampment at UCLA last night the Los Angeles Police Department declared a Citywide tactical alert officers in riot gear responded to a massive crowd the previous night a brawl erupted on campus after counter-protesters tried to break down a pro Palestinian encampment one of the the The Faculty members who came to campus to condemn the brutal attack against peaceful protesters says he has never seen anything like it they were throwing projectiles at them um they were trying to Ram the barricade with all kinds of objects um they were screaming racist sexist homophobic things um we just heard it just now people yelling at us go back to where you came from classes were cancelled yesterday because of the protests less than a month after Arizona Supreme Court cleared the way for a highly restrictive 1864 abortion law to go into effect State lawmakers have voted to repeal it the governor says she'll sign it a section of a highway collapsed after heavy rains in a mountainous area in southern China sending cars tumbling down a slope at least 36 people are dead 30 others injured testimony is scheduled to resume today in former president Trump's criminal hush money trial in New York but first judge Juan mchan has again scheduled a hearing to consider whether to hold Trump in Criminal contempt for violating his gag order this time on four additional occasions the judge already ruled Trump violated the gag order nine times and find him $9,000 Tuesday Trump focused part of yesterday's campaign rally in Freeland Michigan on the judgments against him in several cases including the gag order unconstitutionally gagged he gagged me so I'm not even supposed to be I would say talking to you because he gagged me prosecutors are seeking thousand fines for each of four comments by Trump that they say violated the judge's gag order Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John and Damen Cesar email in if you can or get me on live chat guys tell me they're not going to go to a VAR in basketball so they're saying the Philadelphia guy last game traveled and the Knick game before that was all messed up but that's part of the sport right in the in the Mayhem of the refs miss it right yeah yeah I mean can we all agree that's okay it I mean you want them to be right but I I'll take the human fact involved in that like I don't want the I want to keep the Umpire back there I don't want the you know electronic ball the thing like in soccer it's ridiculous it's ridiculous go NBA I love what they're doing why is the game at 9:00 does it does the network decide that point I think the network has a big say in it um it's the New York Market but boy it's too late and apparently there is not a West Coast game the West already wrapped two games right on TNT right yeah but I think there if there were a West Coast game that would be a 9:00 slot there's not so they had to pick one of the East Coast so basically 100% of kids miss the game exactly I I mean 100% y it's all there it's just ridiculous I just don't I just totally is this who who fixes this it's the network it's a network in the NBA so it's where I think you're going to get the most money from the new yor 10 seconds Paramon update um nothing we're waiting for a deal tomorrow's a big day because uh you know the exclusive negotiating with sky dance that window closes tomorrow so if there's going to be something with Ellison uh presumably it's going to be tomorrow unless they get a you know an extension okay go look how much we got in there in 45 seconds NBA VAR yep 900 p.m. basketball Paramount I mean we do it all Futures up 39 they lift uh small stocks up 1.2 %. from New York City on Apple carplay on YouTube search Bloomberg podcast there's a live chat now Bloomberg surveillance good morning [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker and the Bloomberg News of this Bloomberg business Flash start with shares of pelaton most active in the pre-market they're all over the place right now up about 7.1% after announcing the CEO Barry McCarthy he's stepping down the company planning to cut about 50 % of its Global Workforce uh the next to the Mac 7 cohort reports after the close of regular trading today iPhone sales going to be the focus for Apple investors those shares this morning in the pre-market up just over 1% and future is getting a lift right now we're going to get some more insight into the healthy of the economy with initial jobless claims this morning also going to get Factory orders of course the main focus tomorrow's jobs report the FED did seem to downplay the idea of a rate hike this year Dow futures up 182 points S&P futures of 36 the NASDAQ futures right now of 165 points we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John S that your Bloomberg business flash Tom John uh somebody out on uh Twitter uh excuse me on YouTube on live chat on YouTube they're asking and we know you're beta testing the the congestion fee oh yeah so if you're in for Lisa do you have to pay the congestion fee when you come in and and take going to work make clearly read my yeah just hold up the the Visa did you get a bill at the end of the month so just why are you trying to get me started just I had a nice pleasant start to the morning John Tucker thank you uh so much somewhat in for Lisa Matteo today we are not joined from the chemical engineer from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Troy gesi Troy youo from n Newtonian calculus which you use every day at FS Investments that it's plug and chug what's the most important variable in our math right now for a stock market if you're plugging and chugging what matters the most I I think right now it's a 10year yields right I mean when you think of the mini correction we've gone through recently you know Equity markets certainly cheered stronger economic growth with with simmering inflation coming into the year because Cession risk was dropping like a stone but once we got above a 4 and a half% uh 10-year yield that was about all that investors could take from a standpoint of where real yields and nominal yields were and so I'd say keep your eye on the back end curve because that's going to drive lot of the price action I heard that a couple times yesterday Paul and I can't say enough how Ken rogoff uh is on the same page as Troy gki this real yield 10-year nominal Dynamic is critical yeah I'm looking at the 10e just to sitting here right about 4.6% here so Troy when when you were listening to Fed chairman J pal yesterday he seemed to be trying to take that raid hike off the table but that's about it did it what you heard yesterday did that change your outlook at all here no I I think once again you know the fed's done a reasonably good job a few slip UPS over the last couple quarters with the pivot talk of explaining their reaction function look inflation stays High we're not cutting anytime soon um but keeping hikes off the table we think you know if you look at the labor market it's obviously cooling you look whether you look at jolts whether you look at where excess savings levels are for future consumption um so there's no reason to overreact to this Resurgence of inflation data and they have the ability to be patient just keep rates higher and um at the same time they're still draining their balance sheet Al be it at a slower Pace now starting in June all right so let's pivot a little bit from the FED we think we know we're going where we're going there how about earnings what have you seen from earning so far uh this quarter um importance for your outlook yeah so I think that the biggest key for earnings so far from a standpoint this is particularly acute at McDonald's and Starbucks is you know we have seen signs of the lower income consumer cracking um cracking may be a strong term but but weakening and whether you look at delinquencies in credit cards or sub Prime Auto Loans they've been you know trending higher we know that excess savings particularly for the lower death has been exhausted at this point um and now you're starting to see that Trend show up and earning so that that doesn't mean the world's ending it just means that if there isn't some type of shock to markets or um to the economy the consumer is not in the same shape that they were in 2022 and they could single-handedly carry the economy through a period where every other Factor was Contracting all right so if we think that the lower end of the consumer is maybe a little bit challenged here how's what how does that change or how does that impact kind of your investment philosophy what are you telling your clients here for really how to allocate capital in in a market that has had a nice bounce off those October lows yeah I think so the key for clients right now the majority we interact with is everyone sitting on huge piles of cash you know wealth management firm average cash balances are roughly 20% so wow you know yeah it's a historic number it's one of the biggest um issues with last year's performance because there was an opportunity cost to that cash cash is a Northwest prod strategy the fishing Frontier very very little risk but after taxes and inflation you're really making nothing right if you're in the highest tax bracket so how do you put that Capital to work um without taking uncomfortable levels of risk where you can imly increase Total return and and and so there's a whole host of of alternative strategies you know if you need liquidity you have liquid multi straty exposures that are wrapped in mutual funds if you can sacrifice some degree of liquidity um but you want income you can focus on petol bdcs or senior secur commercial real estate lending strategies um if you can tolerate even more liquidity you now have democratized private Equity strategies particularly focus on the Middle Market so tying it back to your point on the lowering consumer if you're in an investment strategy that's dependent upon the consumer re accelerating from here that's not a good strategy right if you're an investment strategy where if there is some type of uh short-term pullback because yields reach five or we get softer economic data earnings that's a little more challenged now because the biggest issue with uh equities is not forward earnings particularly for Mega cap Tech it's where multiples uh re-expanded back to close to 21 times for earnings we're right around 20 now and I'm very sympathetic to the argument that we can stay here but it's really hard to see more multiple expansion with great respect try I'm not trying to be snarky I think it's a really important question for a huge body of people is Apple a growth stock or a value stock yeah it's a great question I I I'm not gonna hedge it Tom but I'm gonna say think about it as gar right you know we had a cent meting the other day that was explaining one of our thesis is more value and I'm like it's really not right it's it's gpy uh and I think Apple's really the same way it clearly will not have the growth prospects that it used to but I think it's multiples reflected that uh but it's still you know obviously the global Champion for smartphones and it's just the question of what other new technologies they can bring TR ask you thinkk you so much FS Investments uh on the math this morning out on YouTube Paul I I nobody told me this they said yeah we're going to do YouTube yep and there's a Live Chat thing and I you know I was like you know just are you kidding me back back to back good morning from Munich really good morning from maresh Good Morning from Mexico City wow Chad herley the founder of YouTube told us he said we'll only talk to people worldwide where their City begins with them all right very good we'll take that I guess what we're doing but all Paul and I and the whole team even Tucker John chime in here I mean it's it it's extraord I could you ask the guy in marash if he's got a room cuz I want to go there it's gorgeous that's where I was there with G gave for the IMF uh and and it's really really something there's a there's a hotel that's sort of out of like a Humphrey Bogart movie LA lunia or whatever it is I mean it's great I mean the martinis are $50 it's just you know it's outstanding but um you know the international Paul the international reach of YouTube it's not just is jaw-dropping right I we started in this business we were at the New York Market as big as the New York Market is but now it's a global market thank you to streaming businesses and the you know all the satellites serus XMS and all that kind of stuff who history history with Bloomberg Radio John you still have on your kitchen manual the one channel Bloomberg Radio yeah two great marketing device by the way it was um the uh I guess the founders idea was like when we started off to boost listen sent everybody a radio it's pretty cool it's a collector's item so I've been trying to sell mine um on eBay on eBay no that's not I have three or four you only get one channel and it's just like you know we've gone from a one Channel radio to good morning maresh Mexico City and Munich just extraordinary the reach on YouTube We're humbled by it every day that's out of YouTube search Bloomberg podcast and yes as of a week ago there's a replay every day see at 23 3 P.M Wall Street time this afternoon Tim Carol Apple earnings good morning Bloomberg surveillance [Music] h [Music] [Music] h [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business flash he I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg News with this Bloomberg business flash a future is put into a higher open and you can credit the thre with a Fed with this Traders taking some comfort from remarks by Jerome pal interpreted as uh no interest rate hikes of for this year the down Futures right now up 167 points rise of 4/10 of a percent S&P e mini Futures 35 points higher that's up 7/10 of a perc Nasdaq futures right now up 160 points that's up 9/10 of a perc in the premarket Paton interactive most actively traded right now up close to 7 a 12% they are cutting jobs and the CEO is out also earnings from Sigma beating expectations for the first quarter earnings raising the outlook for the year the pharmacy benefits business that is a big part of the story as we look at treasuries right now 2-year yield that is down three basis points we're at 492 the 10year three basis points lower that's at 459 we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash PA and Tom this is great you New York turn pipes I90 you know the throughway New York City throughway through the Mohawk Valley out Buffalo all that a little bit West of there good morning just west of Missoula Montana wow you go up there's Alberton and you know I I mean good morning in Alberton I I'm still not over the flying Our Cafe in Alberton went out of business really Co or whatever you know it was tough I we would stop there for the chicken fried pork tenderloin sure does it La it it made le barel la crack look like nothing it was like way Superior to Cracker Barrel good morning out in Elberton uh uh uh Montana I should say Alberton Montana just just below the Flathead reservation okay very good we got to reach we'll go out there in the summer maybe Norm's got a pelaton out there exactly bonds bonds matter they came in six basis points yesterday bonds everybody's recalibrating why don't you bring in the gentleman from Morgan Stanley he's recalibrating this morning Dan Skelly managing director uh he's head of equity model portfolio Solutions Morgan Stanley wealth management our good friends over there Morgan Stanley hey Dan what did you hear from your Federal Reserve chairman yesterday did it change any anything you're telling your clients at Morgan Stanley wealth management hey Tom hey Paul thanks for having me on and good morning so what we heard from chair Powell was a true reluctance to say the word hike I think the final word count on the transcript was reporters Powell one in terms of mentions of hik so look we heard pal talk about the fact that um inflation has made a lot of progress over the last year in the last in the wider context but he admitted that the last several months have obviously seen a stalling in progress based mostly on shelter and wages and it didn't really change our ultimate view that we will ultimately see three Cuts this year that that's Zentner's expect expectations still about that Dan this is important this morning after that fed meeting Ellen zetner stays with three Cuts this year that's right the now we admit the path is a bit narrower given what we've seen but there's three data points that we're tracking very closely and that we know the FED is tracking very closely entailing uh new tenant rents that in the first in the first actually decelerated decelerated than many had seen the news went largely largely uh Financial Service Financial Service advice and um some um things that are things that are closely to the stock market the stock market down naturally and then lastly good last pricing is continuing to disinflate along with China exporting disinflation on the back of a lot of excess capacity so that's that's some of the things we're looking that keep us confident but we admit the path has become narrower Dan Skelly with us Morgan Stanley we're going to redo his audio here right now Paul I I'm going to go right back and you mean I know it's a cute phrase hopium I saw tons of hopium yesterday and I get it that people are looking at forward disinflationary vectors Ethan Harris uh retired now out one of follow on LinkedIn Ethan Harris hugely valuable but I'm sorry the hope there that over the next what three CPI reports there'll be an Immaculate disinflation that's all this is about I think so Tom and you know you look at the the historical data January February March I think it really surprised on the upside on the inflation prints pretty much across the board which that's what kind of brought back I think the sense that hey we don't need six rate Cuts Maybe one or two is kind of what the Market's discounting and then we even had the rate hike discussion kind of seep into the conversation and again I think that's what the FED chairman pow was trying to take out of the market they're not really at this point looking at a rate hike and I said in the middle you know you got fomc go in the terminal they got one for the ECB as well I don't know if Japan has one but you go fomc go I'm sorry the November 7 meeting is two days after the election yeah what do you do so you know 10 p.m. let's assume we have an election for starters good point p.m. the next morning we wake up with Biden 2 or Trump I guess Trump 2 y so like go over Cleveland Alexander he's a president in the 19th century and and the answer is then the next day Powell's got to stand up good luck and tell us politics doesn't matter right are you kidding me exactly so I mean you're looking at this calendar here Tom I mean that that's going to be an extraordinary time we've got uh June 12th just to give you fomc go June 12th would be the next meeting and that's where a lot of people think if there's going to be something to be done perhaps it's at that June 12th meeting sacks reaffirmed that this morning I know and you know you're hearing uh you know Dan Skelly saying uh Miss zner Morgan Stanley continuing to look for braack uh for three so Dan we we've got you back here Dan Skelly Morgan Stanley wealth management here think about your what's the message to your wealth management clients today about kind of where they should be allocating money given that you know we looks like we're going to have a fed that's going to be a little bit more accommodative perhaps uh earnings are coming in okay what's kind of your allocation call at the moment sure Paul well importantly pal kept the easing bias right he was as we talked about he was very reluctant to even mention the word hike and while there is this kind of emerging consensus out there among investors that now the no Landing is back on the table we would actually say the economy is much more Nuance than that and it's really not your typical flight path if you will we're seeing this two track economy where early cycle consumer Trends are decelerating some of the AI and fiscal spending related demand is driving long cycle demand and Trends to benefit those sectors and industries and so what we're saying is Paul you want to be more actively oriented this is actually quite frankly creating an environment of idiosyncratic opportunity so we're paying very close attention to these trends at a very bottomup level do you I mean we're kind of more than halfway through the earning here are are you are you of the opinion that investors need to really stay with the big Tech names or should they be saying hey let's diversify a little bit try to find some value outside of these some of these big Tech names that have worked so well for investors so it's a combination and I don't mean to punt on the question but the reality is you've seen the mega 7 narrow in above itself into the what people saying the fabulous four this year and so there's still some selective opportunities within that cohort and frankly you saw to your point Paul you saw decent print from a lot of those names over the last week or so uh at the same time however we are seeing uh increasing opportunity in some of the more quality Value parts of the market whether that be in some of the big Banks energy names uh and certainly in the Industrials as I referenced earlier there's so much unique demand and spending going on within the manufacturing sector that there's there's a lot of opportunity there and Dan the heart of the matter in your Equity call which is the courage to stay in the market and I think chairman Paul indirectly alluded to this yesterday he basically implied that the 1.6% GDP number was a big fake out because of inventory foreign Dynamics and that exports Etc and that the GDP as he said no stag no inflation there's just the the Stag isn't there right now is that the Morgan Stanley view it is and if you saw Ellen revised up her GDP numbers for this year and next by 70 basis points so we're looking at for each year so we're looking at you know 2% plus growth uh over this year and next year and that was an upgrade to our forecast and so look it comes back to this idea Tom of the two trck economy right to date you've seen the upper income the 1% of companies with these unique AI or fiscal related Tailwinds driving the L share of growth now what was one of the big components of the one Q Miss in GDP or or lower than expectation it was inventory right and so on the other side of the track for the economy we're hearing from a lot of freight companies this earning season that a lot of consumer oriented companies are not restocking inventory okay so the reality is the longer the FED stays on hold the more you're going to see that track of the economy continue to skid and so this is something we're monitoring very very closely Dan Skelly thank you so much greatly appreciate it uh this morning with Morgan Stanley Paul you get the Pearl River in China you come down it and it was like to be like Fields okay and now it's shenzen they build it out of nowhere good morning in shenzen China listening it's very cool like all across the Pacific my first International true story My First International anecdote and trust me we were ignorant folks was a 15-year-old kid in Vietnam okay I fell off the chair yep that was my first this is years ago over two decades was he being punished yeah I guess so I mean 15-year-old kid in Vietnam we listen to you as Bloomberg on the economy well good morning for listening uh in China David greatly appreciate that the Ritz Carlton breakfast in shenzen yeah unbelievable wow okay you go it's a cook from Boston so you know they can do the Boston you know the breakfast and all that Future's up 32 D Future's up 155 we went up with a Fed meeting we went down and now we're coming back a little bit to vix 15. 05 with our news in New York City Michael bar Tom Paul John former president Donald Trump faces additional sanctions in his hush money trial as he returns to court today for another contempt hearing followed by testimony prosecutors are seeking thousand fines for each of four comments by Trump that they say violated a judge's gag order barring him from attacking Witnesses jurors and others close to the case that is on top of a nine ,000 fine the judge imposed on Tuesday related to nine separate gag order violations during a campaign sto yesterday on a court off day Trump in Freeland Michigan focused on the judgments against him the judge by the way is the most conflicted person in the history I don't think there's ever been a more conflicted judge crooked and conflicted Trump also campaigned in Wisconsin hundreds of police are dismantling barricades today at the UCLA campus after Pro Palestinian protesters refused to leave demonstrators reconstructed barricades after an attack by counter protesters yesterday at least 15 people were injured Arizona has almost completed the process of repealing the Civil War era near total abortion ban Bloomberg's Ed maxter has the story after the Senate passage it just needs the governor signature and Katie Hobbs has supported it all along and posted right after the vote we are going to get rid of this awful law once and and for all Democratic state senator Eva bur says it is time I don't want us honoring laws about Women written during a time when women were forbidden from voting because their voices were considered inferior to men when the process is done Arizona will revert to the prior law which allows abortion up to 15 weeks of pregnancy Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio President Joe Biden included Ally Japan along with Rivals China and Russia in a list of countries he called it xenophobic in a te at a campaign fundraising event in Washington Biden reiterated remarks he made last month linking China's economic woes to its unwillingness to accept immigration Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John Michael thank you Dr John Carl Malone yep age 83 he's one of my heroes full disclosure I was involved with telecommun remember Tacoma TCI telun ation three lifetimes ago Paul Sweeney what does John Carl Malone do with Warner Brothers Discovery the NBA may walk to NBC y it was nine then it was eight in the ugliness of getting to $760 yeah wow yeah he's got a big big problem with one our brothers Discovery he's also got a big problem with Charter Communications so uh Dr Malone has been long traditional media we'll call it traditional media for decades he he wrote it all the way up and uh to certain degree he's been writing it down they've obviously divested a lot of stuff liquidated a lot of stuff but he is long Warner Brothers discoveries long Charter I don't know what he does here I don't know what you do with Warner Brothers Discovery here we're trying to figure out what happens to Paramount yeah Paul and I are going back to basics on this Warner brother's 63% debt uh that's all you got to say it's that simple the return on invest Ed Capital 3% now we'll look at some [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with us Bloomberg business flash said the FED sounded like it won't hike rates this year as that is pushing Futures higher right now down Futures up 162 S&P e mini Futures up 32 the NASDAQ f Futures up 147 Apple in the pre-market up 1% ahead of its earnings after the close of regular trading teen clothing retailer Route 21 filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as according to the court filing from Delaware the filing marks the yes the third time the company has filed for chapter 11 protection uh signate group with earnings beating expectations for the first quarter they raised their outlook for the year the pharmacy benefits business big part of that story shares of fastly uh kind of a standout this morning for all the wrong reasons down 34% the infrastructure software company lowering the full year projections for revenue and profit uh if you type EA on your Bloomberg terminal you'll see 365 companies in the S&P 500 reporting so far this season of those 79% have reported positive earnings surprises and we check the markets for you all day long right here on blueberg radio I'm John Tucker that's your business flash Tom and Paul John thanks so much Paul retail is a tough business I mean I've always been removed from it and it just I mean the Securities analysis of retail the bottom line is you get down to the lower end of the income statement and they're picking up diamonds in front of a bulldozer exactly right I mean it's just been a super low margin business you're try to you know make it on volume but and then the other thing that I think is crazy when you read some of these retail research analyst reports is you kind of got got to get fashion right if you're in the apparel business too so not only do you have to like sell enough stuff at the right price but you got to like figure out what people want Eric can we get Oliver Chen at some point in the next couple days with TD Cowen yeah he's good I me I mean Dana telsey is is wonderful got a bunch of other people but I mean Oliver lives on Madison Avenue I mean he knows he knows which storees going out here which ones coming in here he can tell you going up Madison Avenue everything are no rents yep and own and they're buying I mean one of the big stories in New York city folks is some of these European houses are buying the buildings I mean I mean outright uh as well it'll be interesting Futures up 32 now a look at the front pages what's making news around the world your daily Roundup of today's headlines from major Publications your daily front pages without Lisa Matteo brought to you by interactive brokers Bond Marketplace access their vast selection of over 1 million Global fixed income securities with no markups are built-in spreads and low transparent commissions learn more at ibkr.com bonds thank you interactive brokers again at ibkr.com bonds John Tucker the newspapers all right I got to admit a disclosure up front some of them are on front pages I had to go to page six for a few of these just just your warning yeah uh let's start with this one from Bloomberg Elon Moss latest cost cutting victims summer interns a Tesla resending offers just weeks before the internships were set to start you got to be kidding me so this is prompted aspiring employees to take uh to LinkedIn they're appealing to other employers to try to take them in here's a one I'll read right from it at 8:46 a.m. I opened a Tesla email for flight information by 11:25 a.m. my internship offer was gone uh wrote Miami University student Joshua shriber who said his start date was 3 weeks away and that he had already spent thousands on housing like a lot of other would be Tesla interns getting uncomfortably close to the end of the school year uh they say the surprise calls from Tesla informing students that their offers no longer stand have left them without a lot of time to find replacement gigs for the summer so one part of me is like these poor kids the other part of me is like yeah Welcome to the Real World yep anyway but I mean Tesla you just it's such a Mercurial situation use the word erratic yes yes you can all right uh this you just talking about retail this comes interesting article from women's wear daily I know I read it every day a great read from Evan Clark when Jeff Janette came to the phone in November for his quarterly report as CEO of Macy's he had a long list of accomplishments from his nearly 7-year tenure at the top he also had one acknowledgement telling wwd that really consistent profitable growth had had eluded him uh there's a lot of change and challenge all at once Mac's you have Nordstrom Dillards Kohl's they collectively drove nearly $63 billion in sales last year marking a decline of 3.2 billion it used to be that uh customers needed those department stores to uh do all their One-Stop shopping now you can click your way to anything and more than that the department stores uh according to this article losing their connections with consumers and with the fashion ecosystem that they actually once supported so the end result the analysts are saying you got to scale down yeah Steve sov uh at Sachs inventing the word exclusive and now at MasterCard I believe they chairman and and Steve sov once once once said to me they finally have figured out Inventory management and people don't go to the department stores they got to go to the actual store of the brand and they're afraid they're going to run out of whatever they want yeah that's the whole emotional thing get get that blouse now cuz it's going to be gone which is radically different than what it was a decade ago or so this one comes from the journal this morning there have always been people who relish driving their cars until the wheels fall off not me that would be me uh anyway this uh uh the cost of car ownership keeps skyrocketing so more and more people are doing this the average transaction price on a new vehicle 46,6 $60 in March compare that with around 39,000 just a few years earlier this according to Edmonds repair and maintenance costs up 8.2% year-over-year Insurance costs up over 22% so the increase in the car costs a lot of developments that have led to inflation to cope owners squeezing more life out of their current ride us Vehicles average age hit 12 and a half years in 2023 12 and A2 you said yeah how old's your ride John Tucker uh I don't know 2019 I think I bought it okay that's that's Bush the first not Bush thei that's like I've already got over a 100,000 miles on it so it's I mean help me here Paul cuz you're riding the fancy car the fact is is all this stuff is more expensive cuz the cars aren't like we knew as kids my father took the knob off the radio and only use pliers to turn it so we wouldn't screw around with the radio I told you the story My man bought the pickup truck for the farm to save cost he didn't put a radio in it exactly who needs a radio we we did that but now what do you got how can you land on the moon in your car absolutely it is it is all I again I just bought a new car the first time in 10 years and I was shocked at the amount of Technology that's in there and it's again it's like having your iPhone is is the car and so you said it's up 8% to fix it why am I surpris oh no it's well you have to pick the right kind of car you I would say you have to factor in the the cost for repairing it before you BMW I'm sorry Paul exactly anyway let's finish with this this is actually from Bloomberg opinion they're doing a riff on it there's a Cutthroat secondary market for reservations in Manhattan's hottest restaurants so you have to Fork over serious cash just to get into the front door to the people who go on online and make reservations under a false name and then sell it on the secondary Market but it could get worse uh there's the reservation system followed by high-end establishments in Japan they don't allow firsttime customers they only let in regulars and their guests so there's a restaurant in Midtown that will be nameless which it's very solid American food and I quit going because it was so pretentious about the pecking order really of who got in the door and I happen to be on the pecking order lower but the way they treated you I I just it was really like swarmy I just no I don't I just want a meal you know just sort of tangental to this uh Tim and Carol on their show they had the uh the head of the Michelin guide in absolutely fascinating discussion and also um there's a restaurant at Disney World in Florida really that is now got rating yeah David G went to it yeah his kids went you imagine that and I don't think they let kids in he got his kids in because he's David gur and he ordered and the kids didn't finish their food and you he almost left them there cost a fortune John Tucker with a news John Tucker with the newspapers thank you so much uh this morning uh Futures up 30 you know we did some weird music yesterday Mayday music let's get back to Conventional uh music as we can the boys from chef [Music] n n w and I want and I need and I and and I want and I need and I love and know [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul Sween we're addicted to The Parlor game the fed the monetary ballet where do you see opportunities in a fixed income space here in 24 with Lisa Mato on markets AI affecting demand for cloud computing and Michael bar with news another legal setback for Donald Trump this time across the pond the best in economics an investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Paul Sweeny Tom Keem Bloomberg surveillance after the FED meeting before Apple Tim and Carol this afternoon of course D deep into Apple cash flow Apple cap X I guess there's some product China you brought China I think it's all about China you yeah so we'll see nobody breaks down earnings like Tim and Carol just right real time live good you're going to see that out on YouTube apple carplay and of course on YouTube search Bloomberg podcast Lots going on there special announcement finally people are like Tom yeah the West Coast yeah they're like we're not listening at 400 a.m. they want a replay you're going to get a replay it's out 2 p.m is 3 P.M is we're trying to make that sooner a replay the entire show look for that on YouTube uh thrilled to have that out uh to you Bloomberg surveillance after the FED meeting brought to you by con Resnik advisory Assurance tax let con resident's Enterprise risk advisors help you build confidence in your supply chain using data analytics visit con Resnik uh.com uh and we say good morning to all of you really interesting market up big time at the beginning of the press conference cratered and we've come back Futures up 32 my head spin in vix 15.06 with a uh Bloomberg business flash John Tucker all right we'll stop uh start with next to the Magnificent 7 Apple reporting after the close of regular trading right now the pre-market up about uh just less than 1% at this point of course as Paul mentioned Focus probably going to be on iPhone sales in China stocks uh the major uh stock index Futures right now higher down up 173 points S&P e mini Futures up 33 points the NASDAQ futures right now of 141 points a day after Federal Reserve chair Jerome pal down play the prospect of further interest rate Cuts we have the more policy reactive 2-year two basis points lower that's at 493 we miss 5% again 10-year yield two basis points lower that's at 460 right now Amazon Nvidia posting small gains as well in pre-market trading and we check the markets view all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom joh tuer thanks so much I he's got parchment from Chicago and Chapel Hill and all that you what they don't talk yeah he played basketball year he's awesome there why don't you bring him in I mean Jonathan pingle all over the place here Jonathan pingle Chief Economist at UBS Securities he joins us here um PhD from this school down in North Carolina I can't remember the name but Jonathan thanks so much for joining us here what did you hear from our Federal Reserve chairman yesterday anything to change your economic Outlook um nothing that really fundamentally changed our Outlook but I have to say the way the chair handled the press conference was pretty different from what we thought um I also have to set the record straight at 511 I did not play basketball at Yukon um but but I you know you know but uh but you know I I did think it was actually pretty unique might be might be a stretch but I thought it was actually it was a press conference where you know the chair really threw it back um to the data and almost almost completely got out of the business of trying to guide markets about what was going to unfold with monetary policy let's get some perspective from yesterday Allan of Cambridge Tom what I'm worried about because I truly believe that this is not about lags that there are structural aspects that are running the equilibrium inflation rate higher than it has been in the past I worry that the FED is going to be overtight this year I worry that the FED is not going to end up cutting because they're going to be so data dependent so reactive that they're not going to look at the weakness that's coming in fact if you simply read the earnings reports of McDonald's Starbucks PepsiCo Nestle the list goes on there is no doubt that low-income consumers are struggling that balance sheet effects have gone from positive to negatives the pandemic savings are run down the credit card balances are high they rely entirely on the labor market entirely on wage income and if something goes wrong in that labor market we are going to see this economy slow much faster than anybody would like it to slow Muhammad un uh University of Cambridge uh there he'll be with us next week I'm told and and what's so important here Jonathan pingle is I alluded to it yesterday the societal impact here is this a Fed running policy for the financial markets and the fancy people are they actually looking at the split in America of a lot of people struggling with labor struggling with jobs struggling with inflation so I wouldn't phrase it as um they are looking let's say at the aggregate but Tom I really do have to agree with the question you're asking and Muhammad's General thrust when we look at what's unfolding in the econ economy 2023 the FED had to fight a lot of fiscal thrust and while that was happening you're watching net interest payments for households rise but if you think about you know net interest payments Rising for households and the households paying the higher interest rates that's not the same household as the one who are earning the net interest income and we actually changed our economic forecast last year you know we had been predicting you know weakness seeing this deterioration amongst you know among sort of indicators like delinquency rates and fewer you know card holders paying minimum balances but when we broke down how wealthy households were by income bucket the upper 20% of the income distribution is just a wash in cash liquid assets and high levels of wealth and they do a lot of the spending Paul wants to get in here but Paul I I can't tell you how this is almost like British economics and and there's a whole Heritage of this in Chicago as well the idea of aggregating our economics Now in America I mean Meltzer used to yell at me and say Tom you got to aggregate how do you aggregate in this economy with half the nation flat on their back exactly right so Jonathan are are you of the opinion that I mean there there's a lot of folks out there both in Academia and in practice that are saying this fed is already behind they should be cutting rates now that if you look I don't know if you look at the real time data inflation is in fact you know I'm not gonna say whipped but certainly under control how do you think about the fed and are they behind well I I mean I think in a way they are I mean one of the things one of the reasons you can have that sentiment also if you look at a Taylor Rule and John Taylor was no Dove and you think that you know their long-term dotter policy the median is you know between half a percent and 1% real um the funds rate should be 100 basis points or more lower by most by most of those by most of those by most of those rules so so you can really make that case but I think one of the things the fed's doing is it's almost like they've got a short run neutral rate and they're updating that with every payroll report so you know they've seen sort of the strong economic data you know that sort of has bolstered their case that they can wait and they they they can keep rates elevated even relative to the progress they've made on inflation all right so as we sit back here Jonathan are you comfortable well let's let's just start you know get the UBS house call on GDP how do you think GDP is going to be for the rest of the year and then for next year yeah I mean we so we think GDP is slowing to roughly one and a half% this year and then the next two years is going to run roughly between one and a half to two is that staggy I mean there's no stag there's no flation does pingle say there is stag there is flation well we think inflation is going to generally cool over the next few years staggy I you know um no I mean we're not telling a I mean we're not really telling a stagflation Story I mean we're telling a story more where the economy really is going to slow a lot of the fiscal impetus looks like it's coming out and I think that is going to help price pressures jeen pingle we got to go but you know with your basketball Heritage of Connecticut uh Sixers or Knicks what do you think here Sixers or Knicks it's getting exciting I'm kind of a you know I grew up in New York so I'm kind of a Knicks fan okay Jan King for the Knicks there thrilled to have him on with all of his uh prowess at at stores as well he's with the UBS it's a Swiss bank in uh America Futures up 34 Dow futures up 186 Paul to me the Vick speaks volumes 1920 world's coming to an end yep and after all the gyration in theater yesterday 15. 15 on Vick I mean you know it hasn't even sniffed 20 for a while so interesting toss up here with our news in New York City it's either John Tucker or Michael bar let's see well you got the bad one this is Michael bar oh no that's the good one thank you very much Tom Paul and John Police began dismantling some of the barricades in tents erected by Pro Palestinian protesters at uccla after violence erupted the previous night with counter-protesters in Washington a House Republicans are promising hearings and vowing to restore Law and Order as campus protests continue Bloomberg government's Jack Fitzpatrick has more on the political reaction to the pro Palestinian demonstrations There Was the vote yesterday on defining anti-Semitism there has been a conversation about withholding federal funds from universities that don't sufficiently uh respond uh in ways that are aligned with title six of the Civil Rights Act that bans discrimination anything anti-semitic so there's a really wide range of responses uh from Congress Bloomberg government's Jack fitzp trick in the nation's capital Arizona Democratic governor ktie Hobbs expects to get the bill repealing the state's 1864 abortion ban as soon as today without hesitation hob said she will sign it I am glad that they finally did the right thing and overturn this or voted to repeal this Draconian ban um I'm looking forward to getting it to my desk and signing it uh and getting rid of this ban once and for all yesterday State lawmakers agreed to repeal it today President Joe B travels to Charlotte North Carolina to meet with the families of the four law enforcement officers killed Monday while trying to serve felony warrants yesterday President Biden included Alli Japan along with Rivals China and Russia in a list of countries he called xenophobic in a speech at a campaign fundraising event in Washington Biden reiterated remarks that he made last month linking China's economic W to its unwillingness to accept immigration this time he added Russia but also long-standing Alli Japan whose prime minister was here for a summit and a state dinner in Washington just 3 weeks ago Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul and John thank you so much got to bring it up right now obligatory Orioles coverage we've been doing that it's like playoff ball I'm tuning in every night yep and Yankees Orioles is like it's April into May and it's like the third week of September the Orioles look great now yeah they got smoke anyone can anyone drink legally I mean they're they're like they're like the Cincinnati Reds they're like all 19 well see yeah you're right they're they're a young group and they've learned how the Orioles how to work that salary cap but boy they've got a lot of talent they do and uh they look like they're going to be good for a couple of three years at least I mean they were good last year really good um they're going to be good for all so it's up for the the Yanks can play I think the Yanks can play with anybody their lineup is phenomenal um just comes down the pitching where's Garett Cole by the way where's our Ace well he's hurting you know they come back Chris S came back at the brav but okay you know I'm sorry with a Padres I watch Mr SoDo who I think is since Wade bogs nobody commands a plate and he's just the only reason the Yankees I mean every game he shows up he had a walk last night I count of do you count a walk as a single yes I do yes I do yes you get on base on first base that's a single that's a single I I the way they he was two for four last night right and and I'm sorry SOS kept him going here but what a joy to see playoff ball in May you got to give a shout out also to the A's their Bullpen is good the A's yes the A600 people on the stands last night Pittsburgh Pirate I looked 4,600 I mean they're done right yeah moving yeah I mean three years they're moving yeah I mean you know got to give a shout out we got to go that's our obligatory talk we do that I'm Bloomberg's surveillance good morning from [Music] [Music] [Music] this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker from the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business Flash the FED sounded like it won't hike rates this year so that's a pushing Futures up right now down Futures up 190 Plus Point S&P mini Futures up 35 the NASDAQ futures up 148 2-year yield two basis points lower 493 Apple up uh close to 1% ahead of the earnings before the close pelaton interactive the CEO Barry McCarthy stepping down after two years in the rle as the company also plans to shed about 15% of its Global Workforce Challenger J uh gray and Christmas reporting this morning that job cut announcements fell 3.3% year-over-year for the month of April and uh you want to do golf news real quick Phil say he's given perhaps his biggest hint yet to Bloomberg TV that he's considering retiring from a stellar career in golf shall we call it we check the markets and other stuff all day long right here radio yeah I mean one of the alltime greats but I mean he's he's been obviously the leader for this live tour in the migration a so that's been some controversy but it's been lucrative for him and for a lot of players but most golfers don't quote unquote retire they just kind of play the senior tour how old is it 52 53 53 something like that so still still plays great the pga's paying a ton of money to tiger and the rest what's the new PGA look like um it's still diluted we still have the to the golfing World Is Still divided between Liv and DJ both are diluted it's not nearly as product I should mention he's uh speaking to Bloomberg TV interview for uh up coming episode of latitude with hus Linda Amin very good awesome right now we're going to do we do this once in a while where we go from you know like a really basic conversation we're going to get fancy and pro we can do that with Steven Englander he is with the Standard Charter Bank and without question is the number one cross rate currency strategist in the world Steve angland are really honored to have you on the show uh today my basic teaching here Rudy D dornbush 101 is UN is is unilateral intervention doesn't work CH uh Japan has put in a first amount of money a second amount of money I guess they have an unlimited piggy bank but they're really getting nowhere when do they raise interest rates well I I think that's their problem that you know you can think of intervention as sending a signal um that you are going to raise interest rates you know building a bridge between a point in time when you're not yet ready but kind of saying hey down the road right it's coming um you know so far they haven't sent those signals and you know my guess would be they haven't confirmed the intervention but you know my my guess would be that they've actually put a basket full of money into it um you know we'll have to see if if it succeeds you know they tried inter you know if it was intervention it was in a very IL liquid part of the day I got Euro Yen 165 it's not succeeding Steve Englander what I find so important here is they have an over National policy to reflate has that been successful from where I sit it's it's ephemeral it's almost a fiction have they successfully escaped the disinflation and deflation of decades H you know I'd say somewhere between a four and a six out of 10 um and imagine what the East German judge gave continue Steve yeah I I I think that the the issue is that you know replating by making yourself poor right because the stuff you buy from abroad is more expensive that's not what they really wanted uh in in terms of reflation but you know we you do see some sign that wages are picking up so to say that it has completely failed is wrong PA swe the late Martin feldstein would be screaming right now this is this is just bad Theory well that's all there is that's kind of where I wanted to go Steve I mean just historically speaking for those of us who don't follow currency markets that closely do interventions usually work or ever work over the intermediate to long term oh I mean that that's such a controversial question um and it's not even clear why they should work because you know mo most of the time what you do in the Foreign Exchange Market you undoing your domestic market so exactly you know there's no there's no change um but like I said sometimes if the market sees it as a signal that you're ready to change policy that something fundamental is going to shift um sometimes it it makes something that would have happened in six months happen now but there has to be the thing that's going to shift and so far they they really haven't sent the very strong signal that anything has changed okay so what should we watch for Steve angler if we announce their over for three now and 0 for two recently on some form of unannounced intervention what's the to-do list for the leadership of the nation from where I said they've got to capitulate and get to a normalized race structure Am I Wrong well you you can't have everything right so you know you you can Target your exchange rate but it means that you have to um change your monetary policy um you you can shut down you know your Capital markets right make it harder for money to leave like you know China and some other countries do but if you're saying we want open Capital markets we want monetary policy to be dictated by domestic uh fundamentals um you know your exchange rate going to go where the market wants to take okay let's go let's go with Standard Charter Bank and folks Standard Charter Bank is definitive Pacific Rim in more em analysis Bill winter uh leading the charge there Steve Englander from The Standard Charter view how will the Pacific Rim countries led by a 30% appreciation of Chinese Yuan versus Yen how does Sing dollar how does Taiwan how does the ring it Etc how does how do they react from this madness in Tokyo you know if we were having this conversation a 100 years ago you know you'd be asking that question about you know Sterling um if we were having this conversation 40 years ago yeah the the end would really matter because they were this export power um and on the margin they were the sort of Competitive Edge now they're they're kind of in the pack they're in the the pelaton so I mean one thing that's really clear you would expect that with that kind of appreciation Japanese exports will go to the moon but they haven't so I I I think the impact on the rest of Asia is much less than you would have expected nobody likes it but the the bad part that you would have expected from the Yen being so weak and in theory being so competitive that's just not showing up Steve when you talk to your institutional clients over the last several days are they buying the Yen no no no I think if it what do they need to see to step in do you think well you know as we were saying earlier I I think they they need to see some sign that rate differentials are narrowing if you know as long as there're like you know 400 basis points between the US and Japan um you'd better be convinced that there there there's a truckload of you know Yen buying going to come from somebody um to jump on it and I i' say that most of them would say if it went down to 150 or 152 we would be selling y not buying it okay let's finish up with this The Impossible Trinity is goenda the Montreal Canadians that's the that's the the original definition of impossible Trinity I'm doing this for Englander in Montreal and to the late great Tobias lekovich Steve Englander just simply here there's an impossible Trinity Krugman wrote the book on this what do they need to do now to stop this intervention juvenility what does Japan need to do look uh you know it's it's a tough one and you know I'd say on the Canadians i' take one out of three of that Trinity at this point but the um you know I I think the the boj just has to you know sort of suck it I mean I I look the a lot of countries in the world they've raised interest rates we've seen it in the US the damage hasn't been as bad as expected it's possible that the Japanese economy won't you know fall on its face if they raise faster but they you know they kind of have to decide you know we touch 160 um you know was a big level they clearly didn't like it perhap you know perhaps they'll say look it's it's you know the damage from a week Yen right is enough that we're going to change monetary policy but you know there's no magic bullet there Steve Englander thank you so much can't say enough about it Steve Englander with a standard Charter Bank this morning Paul my message there is is there's lots of theory on this yeah and the Japanese somehow think they have a different Playbook a rule book and they don't you know we'll see here I mean again they haven't confirmed anything in terms of intervention that the market believes there's been at least a couple of interventions just the last couple of days here but uh we got the end a little bit steady here today I guess a little bit 154 spot 63 Steven Englander The Standard Charter Bank those are the kind of voices we like to uh do as well economic indicators coming up here lots more ahead from New York City and Apple carplay Android play on YouTube search Bloomberg podcast Bloomberg surveillance [Music] [Music] 3 [Music] [Music] 3 [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg News and with this Bloomberg business flash stocks right now look set to open higher day after Federal Reserve chair Jerome pal downplayed the prospect of further interest rate hikes and we're going to get more insight into the health of the US economy waiting this morning for initial jobless claims as well as Factory orders uh but the main focus that's still tomorrow's jobs report and here they come initial jobus claims up word 28,000 for the week ended April 27th that actually is a little lighter than expectations we're looking for 21,000 but again 208 and then the factory ORD uh still waiting for that uh right now we have Futures they are higher down Futures up 168 points as a be mini Futures they're up 32 points 31 points we'll call it nasda Futures right now of 129 points the 2-year yield down just one basis point was down two before at 494 we checked the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that your Bloomberg business flash Po and to claims are something there thank you so much John 208 208 two weeks in a row I look at the four we moving average don't have it in front of me but you know I'm sorry there's all this inflation chat and the answer is a job economy has to break you know break yeah and I just where is it PA I don't see it I mean again we've consistent these job claims have been coming in right around this 210,000 level for uh a very long time so that's solid data the economic indicators with John Tucker brought to you by Commonwealth supporting more than 2,000 independent financial advisers with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business Commonwealth go where you grow visit commonwealth.com to learn more what's great about this in this next guest is is at Chicago the idea of macro Babel yep the FED blah blah blah blah blah is just look at the microeconomics of the nation joining us now out of Chicago chief us Economist with Bloomberg Anna Wong Thrill The Dr Wong could uh come in here after the hopium that I saw yesterday there's about supply and demand in price Theory Anna Wong and the chairman early on alluded to this just Dr Wong are we beyond the pandemic are we beyond the supply disruptions that he spoke of yesterday yeah Tom I'm so glad you mentioned price Theory because very few people increasing dwindling number of people are talking about price Theory noway but John Tucker was talking about it this way what's the bar in New Jersey you go to the one that overlooks the boats which one about 50 of those continue okay so so I thought Powell what uh talked a lot about Supply yesterday but in a positive way I think he is you know he was asked several times whether a hike could be on the table and he rejected all those attempts to get him to say that a hike is on a table and that's because he's pinning a lot of Hope on favorable Supply factors so so so Tom he's going further than thinking that the supply uh Bott next from pandemic is going away he's actually thinking there's actually now positive Supply factors in the economy which is how you can have very low jobless claims very buoyant um labor market while having disinflation so at least that's his world view so and again you're right he was trying to take that hike off the table do you think that was the right decision or do you think the economic data suggests that you know maybe we still need something along those lines yeah I I I think so as a fat Watcher I I my goal is to predict what he does so I actually disagree with what he he he did yesterday though though you know because from the fed's perspective uh they have a dual mandate and he perhaps has seen some data that is not suggesting to him that the economy is super strong he he sees downside risk but he that's why he's trying to to be more doish uh also but I think he made a mistake honestly because I think um a lot of Americans are really feeling the pain of inflation and while the fed's uh deadline for bringing inflation to 2% might be the end of 2025 so they have time I think Americans really want to get it down immediately okay this is really important statements by Anna Wong and this is what she's right or wrong uh Wong is really I I mean it's just as simple as this always thought-provoking as well he they just gone to hopium I mean that's been my theme this morning Anna I've never seen anything like this in my life aren't we data depended in a good way where we just look at the data I look at claims granted it's just one little tea leaf and it's asymmetric but claims is a fully employed America he can't ignore that well he he is definitely taking a lot of signal from the claims we actually have a Peas on the terminal right now talking about why claims are is no longer a leading or reliable indicator of the employment picture and that's because if you think about it um more than 7 million immigrants has come in in the last three years right and suppose only three million of them is employed in the in the job market right now and they are laid off would they be eligible to apply for no no they won't be Paul did you just see this Dr Wong just threw me under the bus y orick never would have done that she threw me under the bus and said Tom read my damn claims article because you don't know what you're you're talking about but this is Kea and what we're going to be talking about this summer which Anna Wong's already on is the Immigrant and migrant effect on employment exactly right so I mean Anna as we think about the the job jobless numbers we're going to get tomorrow uh I guess the consensus is 241,000 jobs uh added is this still a strong labor market it seems strong to pretty much everybody here 3.8% unemployment rate yeah Paul to your earlier Point does Powell need to hike somewhere I do think that some of the uh uh increase in the strong job number is real uh that we should take ni signal of the very strong uh non-farm Peril in the past three months but the key there tomorrow is once again the discrepancy between the huge discrepancy between the household survey and the non-farm payroll and the reason why they're different is because non-farm payroll is capturing all these multiple jobs uh people people who need to work part-time because uh they they wanted to make more money um because uh because of high inflation so they're capturing all these marginal jobs not full-time jobs not the good jobs that you know you want there's a whole of extra stuff let me tell you and a lot of our listeners and viewers really agree with what you're saying what would happen if they start cutting rates even if they don't get a Tren a green spanian measured Vector what would happen to our world if they actually said you know we're looking at Anna Wong's full-time part-time mix we're just going to cut rates a little bit would that be bad well I I thought Powell did the right thing in December from his point of view he's trying to prevent a recession and it was was actually teetering at that at at that point and now we saw that in the past four months the whole economy really bounced back uh and so I I think if he he doesn't want to cut because he sees W W uh weakness the economy will really bounce back except that inflation returning to 2% would be pushed back farther all right so let's step back Anna here love to get the Bloomberg economics just economics call here where do we think this economy is going if you want to quote your GDP call I'm just want to get a sense of where this economy is going because there's a real disagreement I think out there yeah yeah Paul so we really look deeply at figuring out this puzzle because it's so puzzling everything is so puzzling right now but our our model is telling us that um because of Powell's December pivot um and he didn't reverse it yesterday I thought he would but he is far from reversing it it means that unemployment could be peing um you know um this month or next month and thereafter would be lower uh would be going down because the cumulative effect of pass rate hikes would have worn off in the second half of this year um and also inflation would be about 05% higher at the end of this year as a result of not revering that pit so that's the path that the economy on if Powell does not put in more hawkish restraint um but that said if he decided to forego the rate cut in July and wait until December and even talk more hawkish Le in the next couple months he can take back this the stimulus and then unemployment rate will be rising throughout the year you're a saint Dr Juan because I'm I'm people know this I just look at the Parlor game like are you kidding me and you know I'm looking at the labor economy and employed Americans I think her point there focus on part-time full-time economy really has some a merit Anna W right wrong she's been just absolutely outstanding for Bloomberg economics thinking about the state of the American economy fishes up 36 Bloomberg surveillance well we're brought to you by build America Mutual they ensure us municipal bonds that Finance essential American infrastructure and provide guaranteed income to improve any portfolio be part of building America invest in bam B bam build American Mutual insured bonds invest in bam insured bonds with our news in New York City here's Michael Barn thank you very much Tom Paul and John there is an ongoing Crackdown on campus protest over the war in Gaza police began dismantling some of the barricades and Tents erected by Pro Palestinian protesters at UCLA after violence erupted the previous night with counter protesters and there is late word police apparently used rubber bullets on protesters meanwhile Secretary of State Anthony blinkin met with Israeli leaders today pressing for a ceasefire deal blinkin is pushing Hamas to accept the current deal warning that Hamas would bear the the blame for any failure if Hamas uh actually um reports to care about the Palestinian people uh and wants to see uh uh an immediate alleviation of their suffering it will um it will take the deal secretary blinkin spoke to reporters in ashot Israel former president Donald Trump returns to a New York courtroom today as his hush money trial resumes meanwhile billionaires Howard lutnick John bson and Woody John son are among the wealthy donors hosting a Manhattan fundraiser for the presumptive Republican nominee later this month a Bloomberg exclusive Huawei Technologies the Chinese telecommunications giant blacklisted by the US has actually been secretly funding cuttingedge research at American universities Bloomberg's Amy Morris is in Washington Huawei is working with Optica an independent Washington based Foundation Huawei is the sole Thunder of a research competition that's awarded millions of dollars since its Inception in 2022 a non-public document reviewed by Bloomberg states that Optica shall quote not be required to designate wuwei as the funding source or program sponsor of the competition and that the existence of the agreement is considered confidential information it is one strategy wuwei is using to remain at the Forefront of funding International research despite us restrictions over concerns that Huawei technology could be used by China as a spy tool in Washington Amy Morris Bloomberg radio Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar and this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John and Michael bar thanks so much greatly appreciate it good morning in Houston someone in Houston saying it's a little slow down there I wonder I don't know where energy really fits into this you know we're hearing people say look at the energy stocks yeah I'm looking at I mean WTI Crude oil here just just below $80 per barrel so it's kind of off that Peak um but boy you think about the average cost of production down there in Houston and 50 bucks they're making money good good morning in mares I I really enjoyed it there I mean we're we're going back I mean back there's there's a there's a hotel which is like Lauren Bal Humphrey bookart l it's pretty pretty fancy and you know you can go in there you can get you know it's like a diner okay they got the salad nissis they got the sevich to Dad it's fancy It's like got a painted ceiling and there's like 14 different restaurants and you can hang out by the pool Bel chunis would be out by the pool exactly you know all right we'll gas up there see an ETF conference at Lon in mares yeah there's no ETF conferences in in Cleveland they're always in Miami mares exactly where is he next week he's in like Europe right yeah he's going around Europe he's preaching the gospel of ETFs to our European clients and so every it'll be standing room only everywhere he goes and grield when she does the ETF racket y she looks like Audrey heer and charade she's carrying like six leis vuon bags they it's amazing I know they get great great guests um talk about ETFs it's been one of the greatest themes just in in the last 20 years from my perspective the amount of money that is going into ETFs look for our ETF coverage and it doesn't stop as Paul says it just grows and grows you wonder what the next big thing is going to be uh for ETFs our next big thing is a legit rally in the market futures up 42 NASDAQ up 1% up 171 points and the vix now under 15 14 point uh 96 that real yield it came in 2.22 six basis points off the FED media yesterday from New York City this is Bloomberg surveillance [Music] [Music] 3 [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business flash uh let's look at the data weekly jobless claims unchanged at 28,000 that was below estimates though the bottom line the labor market Market still humming along and then uh labor costs increasing the first quarter by the most in a year productivity gains they slowed a big report tomorrow with the April jobs nonfarm payrolls report stock futures right now higher uh getting some steam from the FED meeting with the tone was no rate hikes this year pelaton most active they were up close to 11% CEO is out they're cutting 15% of jobs uh the Yen was weaker but uh looks like that has turned now it's up stronger about a tenth of a percent this underscores Rising volatility making the uh the carry trade less attractive I keep getting questions like why do we care and what's the carry trade that's when you borrow the Yen swap it for dollars use the proceeds to buy usset like treasuries nice and what are you doing here why aren't you on some trading desk John whipping the stuff around you know it's a really good good question cuz I L billions of dollars Dow futures up 233 getting a pop uh S&P future they are right now up 40 the ndaq Futures up 164 2year now it's down three basis points it was down two before down three basis points 492 we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom uh John thank you so much every once in a while somebody jets in from London from Europe of such esteem that we beg yep for them to come into the studio and we are thrilled in America today and across this a to introduce to you Richard poris who to say he's professor of Economics at London Business School doesn't even describe his work as an American in England across all sorts of universities including leading us universities when you were at Yale and you were a road scholar this is a few years ago to say the least a few what was the first day like at Oxford unbelievable you actually the first day was getting off the boat at Southampton and being met by a chap in a bowler hat with an umbrella right uh and that was our introduction to the whole scene uh getting to Oxford it was just lovely um it didn't you know you didn't see the incredibly terrible winter that was coming uh where everything froze we had six weeks of couldn't take a shower because the pipes were frozen well they didn't have internal Plumbing back then Richie of a certain vintage one of my great moments with Bloomberg Professor poris was Michael Spence quietly saying to me I remember sitting in class with John Hicks which of the Giants in economics gives you that memory like The laurat Spence had with Professor Hicks well Sir John was also my teacher um and um and uh helped me gu guided me on my thesis and so forth does the conventional economics of that time like the beg the one volume standard British textbook from John beg does the conventional Economics work at the FED today or at the bank of England no I think in fact um we do need some changes and a lot of there's been a lot of discussion of changes in forecasting how you do forecasting the trouble is that people think of economists macroeconomists in particular as forecasters most of us are not forecasters uh and yet the focus is on what did the forecast get wrong how did they get it wrong uh and what how do we fix it and there's some there's some importance to that and Ben banki just gave a re did a review of the bank of England's forecasting performance uh and uh I think it's I think it's the focus on that is excessive but but people carry the can and the chief Economist of the bank of England now uh is on the hawkish side partly I think because he was so scarred by getting they're fighting the last war by getting the forecast wrong right they're but seriously exactly what I see out there and we don't you know Tim Bley would do this with economic history but the fact is Professor Portis we're all fighting the last war and some people are two three Wars behind I I fear that I fear that's right and they don't take account of really important changes for example immigration immigration has been a big big factor in the soft Landing in the United States in the relatively good performance of the British labor market uh and and people don't you know immigration is bad right right but actually from an economist point of view that's not that's not so so Dr poris we'd love to just get your view of the British economy these days we know here in the US we talk about the exceptionalism of the US economy versus other parts of the world in including China talk to us about the British economy give us an update British economy is not in very good shape and the British poity is not in very good shape we are uh in a transition we will certainly have a new labor government uh the conservative government really has gone up down and sideways uh in its economic policies and uh it's it's really hard actually for the markets to deal with that uh but um but the economy itself is not performing well uh it's just we may have had what you call a technical recession okay at the end at the end of last year but however you label it um we are in a very slow growth period uh and that on the other hand inflation has come down if I talk to uh anyone that of your stature there's always a focus and with Richard Baldwin you've really thought about the Eastern European experiment and I don't want you to weigh in on like the war in Ukraine but did we overreach Robert Gates and cond Lisa Rice a lifetime ago were really worried about the overreach Mir shimer of Chicago has said flat out we overreached others disagree did we overreach and our move Eastern in Europe I don't want to get into the politics of that although I have strong views but uh economically on the whole the addition of 10 countries to the European Union in 2004 um has been a positive uh the um it's been good for labor markets uh it's been good for reallocating production to lower cost venues and so forth so that's I think on the whole positive and some of those economies are have been growing very well Poland is an exceptional case uh which and Poland is very big of course uh so uh on the whole the econ strictly speaking economic experience of enlarging the U EU has been positive Paul get one more doctor our listeners our viewers would love to get us your sense of kind of the European Union kind of your view of the European Union but really it feels like it starts and stops with Germany and we think about the Reliance upon Russian energy their China as a buyer of a lot of their GDP Germany's very big it's a very big country and U meton famously said the former now long dead French prime minister or president rather uh said um I like Germany so much it's really good that there are two of them that was before the before the uh merger and um and so Germany is hugely important the most important country in Europe and it hasn't been doing well its production model its business model is is being outdated uh and um and they're not quite clear on what to do one final question in you're teaching lbs but frankly with everything you've done including institutions of Berkeley ages ago Etc but but is there still too much math and economics The Young Turks today you had to learn your economic history you had to know you know Hicks from slutsky on and on and on do the kids today still doing too much math and economics I don't think so if I look at our PhD students uh they do obviously they have to know a lot of mass but they do a lot of Applied stuff and they apply the mass apply the statistical techniques and so forth to real data uh and uh I don't I mean I think actually we've seen it move away from Pure Theory uh where is where M mass is yeah we saw that yesterday in the FED press conference we moved away from P Richard poris they maybe you can do the press conference next time Richard poris The Legend at the London Business School I just thrilled that he I think he left Yale went over to the UK and just said that's it I'm not coming back I'm good they do you know they do that trawitz did that he was at LBJ and he's over at LSC no I'm not coming back yeah I'm not coming back Richard poris thank you so much Professor for being with us uh today we're going to get back on track I mean if you after you have an academic Like Richard poris you got to get grounded in the American way how best can we do that let's think how about Tom peny I think that would here's Professor peny here we'll do this for you Futures up 36 Dow futures up 203 the Vic's 15.05 five Yen for those keeping score 15460 good [Applause] morning yeah running down a dream that never would come to me working on mystery going whever rning down drink [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] this is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keane and Paul swe are these stocks under owned by institutional Wall Street a lot of these companies talking about generative AI with Lisa mat on markets investors just worried about the ongoing sales slump in China and Michael bar with news a ship travel l through the southern Red Sea has been attacked the best in economics Finance investment and international relations this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio good morning everyone Tom Keane Paul Sweeney on YouTube Bloomberg podcast search for it out on YouTube new global distribution we are humbled by the response worldwide and across this nation good morning in Montana among other places uh as well we're going to get to this quickly cuz Michael feri with us we want to get to him as soon as we can apple out this afternoon I'm sorry it's a big deal it's a big deal it's a big deal for apple and it shareholders but also for the tech space in general got to get a handle on what's happening in China uh both from an end user perspective and as well as supply chain a lot of stuff comes out of China we'll have to see on that of course this morning Bloomberg surveillance brought to you by bny Mel and insight June 4th to the 6th Nashville Tennessee don't miss the essential event for the financial advice community visit inside let me spell this i nsit t insight. bny melon.com insight. bny melon.com innal June 4th to the 6 as well an important event you're going to be there right sure absolutely you're you're going to go down and hang out there Bluebird Cafe you bet grand old auy yeah Gaylord entertainment took them public back in the day sure absolutely anybody's welcome you we can come John yeah we'll get the uh we'll do it let's get a Bloomberg business/ quickly here John Tucker all right Mega cap stocks climbing ahead of Apple's results Apple in the pre-market up about 1 and a half% among the data labor costs increasing by the most in a year productivity gains slowed uh this comes before frid's jobs report and Jerome PO said it's unlikely defense next move is going to be to raise interest rates so Futures getting a pop from that down Futures up 193 S&P em mini Futures up 32 the NASDAQ futures right now they are up 132 points and carvana shares they are soaring right now the online used car retailer reporting a surprise profit and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that is your Bloomberg business flash Paul and Tom and John Tucker thank you so much when we invented this this is what it's about Richard poris legendary at the London Business School Michel Furley studied him at Chicago and now joining us professor feri of JP Morgan again it could be a one-hour conversation Michael feri what I witnessed yesterday was the biggest amount of hopium I've ever seen I mean I I'm sorry Michael I'm looking at and they're all doing the Parlor game how many rate cuts and all that what is the underlying if you're in class with Richard poris at lbs Michael feri what's the underlying theory of the fed I think the underlying theory is that rates are restrictive and that over time that will have a um moderating effect on inflation now I think you know there's a couple things there uh but I think another thing I heard that maybe um I didn't see so much commented on is that you know I didn't feel like he's thinks that inflation at 2 or 28 is like an emergency situation right um which is interesting because if you go back you know 15 years when before we uh 15 15 to 20 years when we first started debating um a formal inflation Target there were a lot of people saying you know comfort zone of 1 to 3% and um obviously we settled on 2% we're not there but he didn't really seem to think that 2728 is right you know something that is worthy of really risking uh risking growth this is why this is the conversation of the day Michael feri ages ago set the potential GDP of the nation under 2% and there's this raging debate about should we Panic with inflation at this level right now clarida the former Vice chairman Richard Clara Michael feri has suggested we're going to bring up the 2% level what do you and Bruce casman and your team say what is an appropriate Blended banded Target rate for the new fed the next Fed so yeah so if we're talking about real GDP growth uh and we're talking about potential real GDP growth you know normally we think of that as something that's going to you know obtain over on average the next five years or something like that right um I think in this particular situation uh it's hard to get around the issue of immigration and how that's affecting Trend growth so just to you know level set over the past 12 months we've averaged uh payrolls around 250,000 per month uh job growth 250,000 per month uh and in that period the unemployment rate has trended up on sort of averaging out about 310 of a percentage point which would tell you all SQL that steady state job growth could be above 200,000 right and if that's the case then I do think uh potential GDP if you want to put it that way over the past year has probably been above 2% um you know certainly we've had growth above well above 2% over the past year uh again alongside um no evidence of tightening uh in labor markets no evidence of that uh tightening in in inflation data or wage data um so I do think currently uh you know the Full Employment growth of the economy is is above % now I started off by saying normally we think about you know potential GDP growth as something that's going ptain over long stretches of time and I think in this situation it's a little more tricky to say because yep you know the prospects for immigration into next year I think are going to depend on you know policy choices that are made regarding integration policy uh which could you know dramatically affect whether that 250k number I mentioned earlier is going to be something that you know uh rolls on into 25 and Beyond right Michael H How concerned are you about inflation because I think there is a debate out there in the marketplace whether what we've seen over last three months is something we need to worry about or not H how do you think about it um you know I still think we're on a disinflationary path um I mean one for one reason I guess if we we can either come at it from a bottom up or top down I think from the bottom up you know chair Powell a few times yesterday laid out the case for why uh rental inflation is going to come off uh and if rental inflation normalizes then I think you that gets you you know a good chunk of the way back to uh to a more you know uh acceptable inflation rate and I think you could see that in things like you know in Europe they use this hicp which is basically CPI minus oer uh the BLS here in the US produces one of those and right now that hi CP is a little over 2% core hicp is a little below 2% so you know basically from the top from the bottom up if that uh you know those rental measures come down that gets you along way there and from the top down um you know I don't really see uh in a big way inflation pressures uh picking up uh in the first quarter now I know earlier this week you got that disappointing ECI but at the same time some other wage measures have been a little less wor some uh and I guess most importantly um inflation expectations still look pretty well right I mean forer is talking like he's a president of a New York fed I mean he's on the edge of gouby exact he like on the edge of Austin Morgan hey Michael there are folks out there in the marketplace both academics and practitioners that say you know what this fed's just way behind the a-ball here they should be cutting rates now inflation is in fact under control if you look at some more real-time data do you share that view um not necessarily you know I I guess I do buy look the there's a risk they are behind the ball right y um uh I think if that risk pans out if tomorrow morning we get a real you know uh dot of Appo report then we'll find out they were behind the ball but I think if we're behind the ball if they are um they can catch up pretty quickly right um they can you know they can cut they can cut quickly they can cut in larger increments than 25 basis points uh so I think it's a risk but it's a manageable risk right Michael I want to bring it over to the labor economy we've got the jobs report tomorrow and Anna Wong was heated about this and that we have a fully employed America I get it but what we're hearing from our listeners and viewers is that's just flat out wrong are we a fully employed America into the jobs report tomorrow I think we are um you know but I do think there are there's signs that the Vigor we're seeing in labor market activity is moderating um and you know I guess to your point about you know Americans saying that's flat out wrong you know yesterday we had a uh consumer conference uh I'm sorry the conference board's consumer confidence number which uh and and again chair P mentioned this yesterday um within that they ask people are jobs plentiful are they hard to get yeah you know that's been pointing to some loosening up in the labor market still overall if you look at that consumers are saying it's jobs are still pretty plentiful so um so I think we're fully employed we're probably moving in a direction where again the Vigor of hiring is certainly slowing um gross hiring uh is slowing uh the appetite for new postings of of vacancy is waning so yeah you know I think it's it's a bit nuan we're fully employed got to leave it there Michael fi thank you so much with JP Morgan getting ready for his weekly prospects can't say enough about 7 PM Friday nights fi with the first piece out for uh the weekend Futures up 32 with our news in New York City here's Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John former president Donald Trump's hush money trial in New York resumes this morning with a judge considering whether to hold Trump in contempt before the jury hears any new witness testimony Trump's defense is going to cross-examine Keith Davidson he is the attorney who brokered the $130,000 hush money payment to Stormy Daniels the defense has said that payment was meant to protect Trump's family but Davidson has testified that Trump wanted to silence Daniels because the Access Hollywood tape had come out and Trump's campaign couldn't take another sex scandal Lola law professor and former Federal prosecutor Lori levenson the Trump trial will start with basically another hearing by the judge on whether Trump has violated the gag order again now that's really remarkable given that the judge has already imposed sanctions for nine other violations but the same day Trump went out on the air and accused the judge of rigging the 2024 election and we don't know whether there were other violations as well former Federal prosecutor Lori levenson police and law Angeles appeared to have used rubber bullets on demonstrators as they dismantled an encampment on UCLA several protesters have been arrested President Joe Biden will expand two national monuments in California today protecting nearly 120,000 additional Acres from development it's part of a White House goal to designate more land and water for conservation than any previous administration the bulk of the newly protected land will enlarge the San Gabriel Mountains National mon outside of Los Angeles finally Lefty is thinking about hanging up his golf bag Phil Michelson spoke to Bloomberg TV I'm 53 now and my career you know it's if I'm being truthful it's on it's it's I'm I um it's towards its end and now I would like to help others find the same enjoyment fulfillment that the game of golf has provided me Phil melson on Bloomberg Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar this is Bloomberg Tom Paul and John Apple coming up Paul tell you about that peleton Ron Josie just publishes a city group I love this bye high risk yeah exactly that's right I mean this is a you know this is a classic uh pandemic stock you know when the the lockdown happened people were just rushing to buy these things and and uh and the company was rushing to build them and and get them out there and they right you know overexpanded and so the the backside and the pain is pretty tough let me quote concurrently the company announced to CEO transition and the fact that no one on the Bloomberg surveillance team uses the product thank you for that Ron Josie Bloomberg surveillance [Music] [Music] today on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business flash as we wait for Friday's jobs report Futures pushing higher a fit cheer pow throwing cold water on the idea of the hike this year and of course the parade of earnings continues door Dash those Shares are lower after the food delivery company delivered a forecast for adjusted earnings that trail the average estimate eBay shares they're down to the pre-market after for the e-commerce company's forecast for second quarter net revenue that missed consensus expectations and carvana shares jumping after the online used car retailer reporting a surprise profit at peleton shares most active in the premarket CEO stepping down uh cutting 15% of the jobs as we look at it right now those Shares are up 99.3% overall the Dow futures up 174 points S&P Min Futures 30 points higher the NASDAQ futures up28 points 2-year yield down one basis point that's at 494 we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that's your Bloomberg business flash Paul and John thanks so much Paul real quickly here out on live chat they're like where's Damen sassau it's like you and I don't even exist I'm looking at the weather outside I think I know where he is yeah you think it's like 80 degrees toor try to get nine in at least good morning Damian hope you're having a good time up in Connecticut as well uh this is an important conversation you know we walked in today and there all the FED stuff and all that who isn't affected by Apple I mean that's just the starting point I mean how many gajillions of Apple products are out there and OG R joins us right now and enro I don't want to go to you know maybe Paul wants to go to productor China this is the most profitable company on the planet even if they do low singled digigit Revenue growth am I correct they still mint money yes absolutely I mean this is a this is a classic value company with a lot of free cash flow they manage their expenses you know very well uh capex is low I mean just a just a you know phenomenal value does the street understand this does the street understand they don't need Microsoft growth yeah but at the same time you have to have some growth I think that's the big question here is you know do they do they actually see positive growth rate and when do they see some of it and um you know Frankly Speaking that's a big overhang on the stock all right so the earnings conference call will be this afternoon widely widely listened to I'm sure by many many members of the marketplace Here China what do they have to say what can they say to maybe lift the cloud a little bit in terms of end user demand for their phones number one and number two supply chain any challenges there yeah so the the two words I'd be focused on if they if they utter the word China is stabilizing it's good now I I don't think they can say China has rebounded because we don't see that all the leading indicators tell us things are still tough there but but but perhaps start with the word stabilization now if they continue to say China remains a problem problem for them or you know they're struggling there then I think it's going to be another quarter of you know similar stories that are going to come out to say that they're losing share to Huawei and uh you know there there's no growth there so China is again going to be a challenge and we'll see what management says here um overall AI is that something that investors want Apple to lean into now or is there patience to say oh Apple will figure it out at some point no they they they have to mention a few things that they are working on they will not make any big announcements because they're saving that for their June conference but they really need to get some element of this thing so think about it Paul and and you know what is the real big Catalyst for anybody to go move out and and change their phone they don't need it the phones work very well we you know we we see that partially the the number one reason is battery if your battery is low then you're going to go out and move it now if you see a lot of AI applications out there in the space and you your phone is not working well hangs or if the answers take a while then there may be an you know reason for people to go out and uh improve it and that's what we are hoping for that sometime this year they go out and give that killer application and say buy the new phone it can do a lot of cool stuff for you I got a return on invested capital of 55% which folks was in none of the none of the textbooks I ever studied Amazon goes no dividend it to me anog it's nonsensical that they have to come out today with a dividend lift and a massive share buyback all of Google what is it the culture that Steve Jobs like put a ctisle and his will that they can't do that why is Apple so reticent to give the world their cash flow back no but they but they spend the entire cash flow to buy back shares the question is do they accelerate other not they are buying back 9200 billion do worth of you know shares every year so it's not as if they're not using it but you know there another big overhang that people don't talk about not overhang but it's it's an unknown thing Google pays Apple $20 billion or so somewhere in that range they don't disclose it but that's the number you know people say it is to make it a default search engine what if the judge over the next 12 months somewhere in that time frame says you know that's illegal and Google cannot do that Google doesn't get hurt with that stuff because you know Google is the best search engine and people will download Google app and use it Apple gets really hurt and that $20 billion is pure operating income so there is you know there are certain but that's that's the whm of uh the judge we don't know what's going to happen there all right so what what's the smart thinking when you talk to the legal beagles out there what are they saying about the risk to Apple there see that's that's that that's what I said that's a big unknown it could go either way and once that overhang is over then I feel a little bit more confident pounding the table on this thing because that's that $20 billion will take a lot of years to you know make up all right so let's step back from the Apple story what else in technology when you talk to your clients out there what else in technology are people just kind of no-brainer I'm buying this they're wondering what Ed llo is going to do with his Tesla Tesla car exactly I mean Ed Ed's out there Ed's driving down the road he's not even driving he's doing like the autom the automatic thing I don't know what's going I mean come on anog they're they had X number seriously they had X number of accidents with Tesla is Tesla a safe car I I I drove it many years ago and I love it but I I'm not a big Eevee you know buff so so I'll I'll leave it up to those who like that car but for the tech world but but for the tech world one one thing I could say is we are seeing massive amount of capex it is just people are spending like there is no tomorrow I are they spending smart we'll find out because if the AI workloads don't come through over the next few years then it's not smart but all the leading indicat is tell us that people are spending right experimenting with AI you know Amazon's going to spend in our view somewhere over $65 billion they say or in capex creating new data centers new Chips Hardware so that they can fulfill the demand that they're seeing from their clients do we have the grid do we have the electricity to Electrify all this capex it'll be fun to see since The Regulators don't allow tech companies to buy other tech companies will they allow tech companies to buy some maybe power plants or something something because that that is that is going to be one of the bigger bottlenecks uh over the next few years to uh to see whether how they can you know Source those data centers anaro thank you so much Anar r with a brief there this afternoon uh Tim and Carol Carol and Tim they will have the Apple earnings for you rich emails in and says who's Ed ller I know I mean I'm shocked I thought that was a given Ed ller leading all of our technology program also our Aerospace reporter as well surveillance you know so we sent them to the desert I think like down on the Texas Mexico border whereever El has the stuff go to the music yeah exactly but anyway Ed llo our technology uh editor out there in San Francisco he's driving just bought a Tesla it's out on Twitter he yeah follow him on Twitter because he's got some interesting realtime experience in driving this assisted driving yeah I made a turn and the car didn't I mean sorry that's the his 20 one of his recent tweets was his recent 30-minute commute to work went fine with the assisted driving he didn't have to do much until they got to the Golden Gate bridge and then it a problem figuring out which lane get I don't get I I don't get I don't want to have a problem Tu what is a Tesla auto drive going to do with the congestion tax of New York City hopefully Li not get charged no I think it's got a feature where it rolls up the license plate as you go through the oh it does the J Bond thing so the license plate is what's going to identify you is that right if you don't have Easy Pass toll thingy oh so it's easy pass yeah it reach the Easy Pass transponder if you don't have that I presumably is going to read the license plate toll you at a higher rate and then send the bill through the mail if you don't pay that your registration is suspended and then you you know seriously and it's an unfair question if if you don't the answer that's fine do we all get build monthly daily oh I don't know yeah we don't know oh I think there's a lot we don't know about it John Tucker our surveillance congestion corresponded a big issue in the five burs of New York City Futures advance NASDAQ up 8/10 of a percent up 143 points of vix 15.08 from New York City Bloomberg Sur [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom ahead of the opening bill from the New York Stock Exchange futures have been pointed to a higher open all morning long and there you have it the opening bill at the New York Stock Exchange Traders taking some comfort from the FED signal that there's uh no plan to raise interest rates right out of gate S&P 500 38 points higher that's up about 8/10 of a percent we're at 5,057 on the index the Down Jones Industrial Average up 231 points that is a rise of 6/10 of a percent right now and the NASDAQ 100 is up 9/10 of a perent 158 points higher Apple most actively traded in the early going those shares up 1.7% after we get the their results after the close of regular trading today and also pelaton with a CEO stepping down those shares 14% higher and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio that's your opening bell report I'm John Tucker Poland Tom uh thanks so much uh John right to it here any the equity markets and let's do a reset now on the levels 38,3 4 SPX 5,055 NASDAQ 100 17476 Linda dle is with Federated thrilled she could be with us today with Federated hers uh Linda L I just want to cut to the chase here what's short term for you you mean in terms of time yeah oh short term would be what the next several months I look months I look at short term fir in the market and the hysteria of going down three or 4% draw down I I'm absolutely fascinated how we've lost our bearings on time frame have you seen that out there that the new short term is something different than what you and I were weaned on uh yes oh and I forgot to say thank you for having me on boy uh definitely over these decades you've seen more and more the focus on shortterm and and I think you bring up the point that now it's even shorter term and like you said people panic from what is a general uh three times a year correction I think that has a lot to do with the access that we have these days to all kinds of information you know and how closely in we're tied to it so yesterday Linda we heard from Federal Reserve chairman J pal I guess he seem to take the right hike off the table was that enough for you or do you think that this Federal Reserve should be maybe doing more I think that uh well we never really at Federated hermies thought that they would raise interest rates next it definitely seems like the next should be a cut a cut as our economy is slowing so in terms of doing more uh we're definitely restrictive now and I think that's what was interesting as to what he said yesterday which is we are restrictive and disinflation seems to have stopped and so therefore we need to stay higher for longer and longer and we have said for a year and a half now they're going to say hire for longer then we said hire for longer longer and now I'm going to say hire for longer longer and even longer and you know what we could be okay that could be okay how will I I like the idea we be okay and that's something that I think is not in the language right now how will corporations adapt is just the short answer to right size and cut costs well you know it's very interesting as well as we're going through this earning season and what you just announced about peltin I was I was reading the comment that the president made were laying off 15% of our Workforce because there is simply no other way to bring spending in line with revenues this is where we are in the cycle and this is where it gets a lot more interesting to be a stock picker because some companies can maintain their profit margins and others are going to suffer their profit margins and then there's nothing else to do but cut people because well look how the stocks react the stocks love it when you're cutting costs Y and I think that's where we are in the cycle and that's going to play out and that's why I'm not particularly wored about them raising rates it's more like a question of the next Catalyst being an unemployment U noticeable unemployment acceleration okay which we don't have yet all right Linda if you're not too concerned about uh the raate environment that brings us to earnings uh and we're you know more than halfway through this S&P earning season here what are you seeing anything out there that's concerning you what I think is particularly concerning I mean it is a mixed earning season and while earning ears are better than the low bar that was put forth at the beginning of this earning season it's being beaten that's all good it's good and whatever pullback we're having in general for the market seems to be price to earnings uh related and that's kind of good for a correction as well but when a company disappoints in whatever way that the market doesn't like what they hear they get hit for 10 15% or they go up 10 or 15% and that's not normal um that's not I I don't feel I don't feel like that's healthy at all so I think there's a lot of uh you short triggers out there and I think that goes to what Tom was saying about short-term nature in our views Linda dle has an a claim note folks and everybody reads it because it's to it's totally twisted up top she's making the golf course tour I love this she's going to York Pennsylvania Air Conditioning world of you know whatever York and we all know that then she goes spicy to Baltimore you know she checked out the Orioles Linda dl's you know looking down on McCormick and their headquarters at the hayfields Country Club and then she's up at my old haunt she's out at oakill Country Club that's where I first heard the Rolling Stones oakill Country Club where they had the open and she's out there in real America looking at where the fancy people play the golf courses Linda my big take with Bloomberg is we're all looking at three ZIP codes in New York City you're living in Pittsburgh you're out there at these golf courses is there a manufacturing Renaissance going on in York in Baltimore with McCormack in Rochester is there a new manufacturing Renaissance going out there that New York's blind to I don't know about a manufacturing Renaissance the strength that I see is is still in Services um and not I'm not hearing that I'm not hearing about the manufacturing Rance and traveling yes I'm traveling I'm getting some on the road but but just even the regional numbers are not good for manufacturing we're kind of in a steady state situation what I find very interesting is what I'm hearing in these in my travels these days is what I think of as the rich session people losing their jobs that have uh that are making 125,000 and plus labor hoarding unra unraveling that's what I find interesting in myel interesting interesting what about dividends unraveling Amazon without a dividend I mean this is steveo 101 give us back the money I mean Apple's a proxy this afternoon but Linda dle are we going to see a new round of share buyback use of cash including dividend increase well I think definitely we're going to continue to see BuyBacks and we have done so that's been one of the strengths that we've seen here uh what's been very interesting lately and whenever we have the if you call it a Tremor a three to 5 per pullback and you see groups like utilities catching a bid this I think is maybe a shout out to these are undervalued underloved dividends who cares about dividends well maybe now we start to care about dividends uh more and particularly if we think interest rates will come down next and not go up anymore so Linda as as we think about sectors to look at here as we parse through the earnings here are we still overweight technology and then maybe try to find some value other places I mean is technology still the the engine that has to pull this train here you know technology uh seriously has it going on and and so I I wouldn't downplay that at all except we obviously see that the Magnificent 7 has frayed a bit here and and again some big moves in in the names in terms of uh up or down so it would be natural if you said as we have at Federated Hermes for some time you will see a broadening we've been saying it before others I think and we see broadening first in throughout technology and that's good and then we see it throughout the rest of large cap cyclical that's value with the cyclical side we're seeing that too so we've had an overweight in energy and financials energy well not sure yet how it how it's catching a bid but Financial sure have and Healthcare as well it's Federated what do you actually seeing with what people are doing with money market funds I'm going to go old school I got three months liore 5.60% wow what are people doing with money market funds Linda dle well uh people just are thrilled with what you're getting for money market uh funds and of course we we are benefiting from that and what I again what I hear as I travel is a lot of advisers and their clients are kind of you know even as we're saying you should go out the risk Spectrum in terms the yield curve in terms of uh of the bond market and because you can get nav when you can get price appreciation when yields come down and they're like I don't know I really like my cash you know they're kind of having a hard time moving off the cash so when when fed fed chairman says longer for longer they say you know what I am good and um and it's it's it's a great way to sleep at night particularly if you're an an aging baby boomer Linda thanks for the overv thanks for the tours of the uh of the freshwater golf courses from York to Baltimore up to Rochester New York as well Linda dle with Federated heres uh this morning up 138 points I don't know it's sort of round trip up we went with Paul down we went we come back that's all there is to it yeah here we are I know what to make a little bit higher here vix 15.24 with our news in New York City Michael bar thank you very much Tom Paul John police and tactical gear moved in on protesters on the UCLA campus this morning some demonstrators left others did not the student demonstrator supports the Palestinians police uphold the system of Oppression uh and you know obviously it's not right they're just upholding the status quo so we need to resist um we need to keep protesting and that's the only way change will be made former LAPD police officer and former Los Angeles city council member Dennis zign said the encampment will be cleared and those who did not voluntarily leave will face the consequences what we see happening is the methodical process of clearing the encampment arresting the individuals and you'll start seeing those arrests and the plastic cuffs placed on the individuals and all be going to jail former officer Z spoke to CBS testimony is scheduled to resume today in former president Trump's criminal hush money trial in New York but first judge Juan michon has again scheduled a hearing to consider whether to hold Trump in criminal contempt for violating his gag order this time on four additional occasions the judge already ruled Trump by viated the gag order nine times and fined him $99,000 Trump focused part of yesterday's campaign rally in Freeland Michigan on the judgments against him in several cases including the gag order unconstitutionally gagged he gagged me so I'm not even supposed to be I would say talking to you because he gagged me prosecutors are seeking thousand fines for each of four comments by Trump that they say violated a judge's gag order President Joe Biden including Ally Japan along with Rivals China and Russia in a list of countries he called xenophobic in a speech at a campaign fundraising event in Washington Biden reiterated remarks he made last month linking China's economic woses to its unwillingness to accept immigration Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Michael bar this is Bloomberg Tom Paul John here's the single most important sentence in lengthy Wikipedia by 1991 Mr Williams excuse me Serena Williams had a 46 and3 record in the USA junior tour and was ranked number one among under 10year old players her father stopped sending his daughters on the tournament so they could go slowly Ah that's his language this is the most important athlete ever where they didn't get on the Jack oy yeah he fought it their father fought the whole way to try to be normal I mean more than any other athlete I know yeah it's extraordinary Story I mean I I kind of feel like she's the best player in tennis period of all time completely CH I mean the metal the tennis record came out that was a big deal but she changed the game yeah you're right I and I was thinking about this they had a conversation with somebody Serena Williams or Billy Jean King and I started thinking about it it's like you got to say Serena Willam I would say Serena you know a little bit we're going to talk about that coming up here we've got Jason Kelly coming in the dark in the door but I I just in the whole Jack he's not darkening the door you know where he is oh Miami you know what's in Miami the F1 he's with those people oh man those types of people he's in Miami for F1 how come we didn't get like you know I didn't get a whiff of an invite for that did we you know I think it's Rich's fault we're like crumbs on the floor look at I can't even get on I80 here man and then my man's in my oh dude when Jason comes back to New York does he have to do congestion pricing I don't think or is he so special do no he just by get a waiver on that he gets a waiver we're going to do that we're going talk to Jason Kelly about this coming up from Miami but I I just think this is just one of the hugest stories for every parent out there incredibly gifted and the father just said we're not doing the Jack oy yeah I just think it's amazing Amazing Story right now we got the Dow up 110 points vix 15.280 real yield gets coming back up a little bit 2.2 7% Bloomberg surveillance [Music] [Music] [Music] markets headlines and breaking news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television and the Bloomberg business app this is a Bloomberg business Flash and I'm John Tucker in the Bloomberg Newsroom with this Bloomberg business flash Information Technology right now that's the best performing major industry groups in in the S&P 500s so that's where you're going to find semiconductors like shares of Nvidia the technology shares pushing stocks higher ahead of Apple's earnings that comes after the close of regular trading Apple most actively traded right now it shares up just about 1.7% Wall Street analysts expect the iPhone maker to announce a stock buyback iPhone sales in China also going to be a big Focus S&P 500 right now 22 points higher that's up 4/10 of a percent we're at 5,40 on the index the Down Jones industrial average of 107 points that's a rise of 3/10 of a perc and the NASDAQ 100 up 121 points that is a rise of 7/10 of a per. uh data this morning in the run up to the monthly employment report the data showed labor cost jumping the most in a year as productivity gains they slowed and we check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio I'm John Tucker that is your Bloomberg business flash call Tom thanks so much highlight of the week in New York was leis Hamilton going down Fifth Avenue and doing a wheelie in his F1 car it was great I thought it was Pharaoh for a minute I thought it just Pharaoh going home from an AR stay at the office uh F1 has been over in Asia in China I thought it was sort of boring Japan was phenomenal and now they're back one of the three stops here in Miami Miami I think it's Austin and uh Las Vegas is a big big event here as well and joining us now of course he's host of the deal with with one Alex Rodriguez uh it's Bloomberg originals and they're going to talk to Serena Williams but joining us right now surveillance Formula 1 group a coverage Jason Kelly yeah you got to be kidding me I mean what are you doing crashing and Mike mcl's trying to get into Miami F1 what are you GNA do down there Jason uh you know I mean taking in the scene here Tom it's it's fascinating this is year three of the Miami Ground Prix and you know the stars come out for this one and I have to say a lot of you know quote unquote sort of our people the Bloomberg world really shows up for this one the whole Wall Street South thing very much in effect so I'm going to be hobnobbing you know that's what I do I know the invite got lost in the mail there's like a whole bunch of new tension we don't need to go into Formula One knowledge on this but Miami this year is different than any Miami there's some legitimate sport tension isn't there legitimate sport tension in in terms of the the r or in ter the guy the guy at Red Bull's going over to Ferrari but he hasn't announced it yet and McLaren's doing better da D yeah all the drama is really off the track this season that's for sure so I'm most interested in like hanging out in the paddock later today and tomorrow and sort of picking up the gossip so I'll let you know Serena Williams special what was the key distinction of your conversation with Alex Rodriguez with a tennis giant you know I think the main thing that really jumped out at me Tom and you were talking talking about her relationship with her father was how much he did for her you you said it beautifully sort of set her up so beautifully her and her sister Venus for tennis what he then did was put her business and Venus's business in their own hands he said very clearly to them you figure out I'm here for you but you figure out what to do with your money and she did and she has done it in a massive massive way she's hugely influential in the business world not just as an athlete but now trying to sort of make that leap to being an investor and and having some success so far so what how is she doing this how is she affecting this because it's fascinating to see how some of these uh former athletes in their next life how they think about you know participating in the business World investing operating what is she doing so I think the the key distinction Paul and and this actually does go back to her father her very first deal she talks in depth about this in the episode was with Puma that was her big endorsement and the thing he insisted on that she has never let go is that she be at the table she was a teenager it was late into the night she literally fell asleep at the negotiating table which was fine he wanted her physically there and you know not to be overly GLI about it she's never left she really takes into account her presence on every major deal she has a great team around her but she's intensely involved and now what she's doing guys is she's very much focused on how to bring other underrepresented people you know whether it's women whether it's people of color into especially the world Adventure Capital Investments because the numbers as you know are just minuscule in terms of the amount of money um that goes to essentially like non-white dudes exactly so where does she have a focus for her VC type investing uh is there any industry she feels comfortable with her feels like she can add add value she's pretty wide ranging I mean she's gone to you you a lot of it is where she does think she can add value you know one thing that she was early in interestingly enough was Master Class um she was an angel investor there you know saw the potential for that early on she understands media she especially understands fashion um you know notably when she retired she did not go on ESPN she didn't go on Bloomberg she did it through an essay in Vogue um you know she's been deeply involved in that she was deeply involved in that as a player too you know you talk about the ways that she revolutionized the game think about all the things she wore on the court that change the way we think about the sport yeah I spent a magical evening at the White House correspondence dinner with Venus and I think Serena was in the room somewhere I can't remember are they close Jason yes very very close I mean probably couldn't be closer they geographically live I think you know a couple blocks from each other um here in South Florida intensely close and I think you know really have relied on each other for their entire lives and and no one's a no one's a bigger fan of the other than their sister so you coming back from Miami today or no no no no no no I I need to I need to soak it in Tom doing some reporting here I mean important one exactly very good Jason Kelly thank you so much the deal with Alex Rodriguez has been very successful in moving from not every success but people the ups and downs of the deal the ups and downs of after that athletic life Serena Williams front Center for them uh most interesting to say at the least Paul I want to go back to Securities analysis 101 which is for example CFA level one you use John Deere or caterpillar as your accounting model there's never been a model like apple to me it is unique yeah it it really is and it's been rewarded uh in the marketplace as such um but it's you think about it um you know almost $400 billion of Revenue is projected for this year it's not growing a lot um as we heard from Anor roog but boy you look at the uh eida margins 34% on like $400 billion of uh Revenue it's just extraordinary and they Dro a hundred billion dollar of free cash flow this year uh and that's going to grow maybe 14 or 15% next year so the profitability is just extraordinary and the absolute dollar amounts are are uh extraordinary and so as Anor Ragan said what do you do with all that free cash flow what they've been generally doing is um buying back stock he did say that you have to have growth I mean there's a whole Theory out there that with low singled digigit growth they can keep this going and anaro said no they've got a you know they got with these they've got a product announcement Jason Kelly's probably going to probably of course it's but they have like a a thing coming up May 7 I'm guessing uh there's one the big one is in June in early June that's going to be where they get all their developers together and if they're going to announce something AI right that's where it's going to be I'm just looking at the fa function Tom mid single digit Revenue growth for the next 3 four years for them right and and now we go to uh John Tucker our surveillance I have the oldest cell phone in the building correspondent are you on the iPhone 4 or iPhone 5 right now I'm on the BlackBerry 3 Blackberry Blackberry 3 you're the last the last person using black the art of like you know texting with my two thumbs do you have a Palm Pilot at your desk remember the Palm Pilot I actually do have a b this guy was like very cool when I and there's your technology report John Tucker this way it's like when Michael Douglas fell down the hill in that movie with Kathleen Turner and had the big ugly cell phone that's a Tucker he's in the Hummer reach too going through the T my cell phone doubles as a weapon exactly that's great this has been an amazing day I can't say enough about our booking team Richard Porter and Michael fi back to back I'm sorry that's what this is about uh this song it it's amazing to me the history of this song with the gifted Brian Adams of Canada he gave this to Blue Oyster called they said no then he went to 38 Special they said no he said damn I'll have to record it myself and it was this ginormous hit good morning [Music] oh but her cold wouldn't hurt her if she didn't know it get too I need to feel you I'm going to run to you I'm going to run to you cuz when feeling right I'm going to run all night I'm going to run to you oh

Channel: Bloomberg Television

Views: 11,333

Keywords: Alex Rodriguez, Anna Wong, Anurag Rana, Apple Inc., Bloomberg LP, Daniel Skelly, Earnings, Federal Reserve System (U.S.), GDP, Immigration Issues, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jason Kelly, Jobs, John Tucker, Linda Duessel, Ludovic Subran, Michael Feroli, Morgan Stanley, Serena Williams, Steven Englander, Troy Gayeski, U.S. Recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls (jobs report), UBS AG, US economy, immigration, jonathan pingle, recession

Id: UzW-VFqkoQE

Length: 176min 20sec (10580 seconds)

Published: Thu May 02 2024