Palestine Talks | John Mearsheimer discusses Gaza

thank you so much John for sitting with me here today to talk about many of your philosophical Notions as they apply to the Israeli assault on Gaza right now I'm hoping that we can cover the view that you're known for at least one of the views offensive realism and the larger or more General concept of rationality the Israeli Lobby in American politics and policym and what a morally responsible International order could look like or does look like so perhaps we can start off with this view of offensive realism could you for those who may not be familiar with it um explain what that is and how it might be manifested right now in Israel's assault on Gaza well I'm not sure that Israel's assault on Gaza has much to do with realism but I'll give you first a take on what realis my take on what realism is and then I can talk about the Israeli assault on Gaza realism is a theory of international politics that privileges power it says power is the currency of international relations and states are mainly concerned not exclusively but mainly concerned about the balance of power and they want to maximize the amount of power they have the best situation is to be a hegemon in the system now why is is that the case the argument that I make is that if a state operates in a world where there's no higher authority that can uh rescue it if it gets in trouble and one can never know what the intentions of another state are today and certainly cannot know what their intentions will be in the future and that rival State May be very powerful in that world you want to make sure you are much more powerful than all of your Rivals because again if it turns out that the intentions of another state are malign and that state is really powerful and you get into trouble there's no higher authority you can turn to so in a world like that it makes eminently good sense to be as powerful as possible indeed to be the hedgemon in the system but of course all states understand that basic logic and the end result is that you get a competition for power I call that security competition and sometimes that security competition results in war so that's the basic argument that I lay out and as you can tell from listening to me talk it's really a structural argument it's the structure of the International System it's the fact that there is no higher authority States cannot know each other's attentions intentions and some states are much more powerful than others that drives states to compete for power so that's the basic realist Theory now the reason it doesn't apply to the Israeli Palestinian case is we're not talking about rival States we're talking about one state which is greater Israel and we're talking about the fact that inside of Greater Israel the Palestinian in Gaza are revolting against the Israelis this is basically a prison break what happened was that the Israelis in effect locked the Palestinians in Gaza up in a giant open air prison and they treated them horribly and what happened on October 7th is you had a prison break and the Israelis reacted to that by invading Gaza but this is not competition between two states if we had long ago gotten a two-state solution and there was a Palestinian State side by side with a with an Israeli State then realist logic would apply because you'd have two states competing with each other but the Israelis uh had no interest uh in creating a Palestinian state so you have a greater Israel and what you have here uh is basically uh a rebellion by uh these prisoners who are locked up uh in Gaza and you've also talked about rationality States acting rationally or irrationally and I'm wondering if we were to apply it to the case of Israel whether it'd be safe to say that they're acting irrationally because something you observed recently correct me if I'm wrong is that Israel is trying to defeat Hamas but it will never be able to do so so how in that sense is that in Israel's interest to keep waging this war well it is an Israel's interest to defeat Hamas uh whether you think it's morally correct or politically correct is another matter I mean I believe that the israelies should have long ago given the Palestinians a state of their own that was the smart thing to do uh but uh they've decided not to do that now there's no question that the Israelis um when into Gaza and they argued that what they wanted to do was defeat Hamas and given that it is virtually impossible to defeat Hamas in um in combat in other words for the Israeli Defense Forces to engage Hamas and eliminate them it's virtually impossible one could argue that's irrational but I don't believe that was Israel's goal I mean they said that was their goal their ultimate goal I believe from the beginning was to ethnically cleanse Gaza to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza and by the way if they had done that then they would have eliminated Hamas as a problem in Gaza you follow what I'm saying here so one could argue that the decision to try to drive Hamas out of Gaza and the Palestinians in Toto out of Gaza was morally wrong but one could say it was a rational strategy from Israel's point of view now you're saying to yourself why would I say that the fact is that Israel greater Israel is today an apartheid state and for purposes of the future it's not clear that Israel can maintain itself over the long term as an aparte State because an apartheid state is such a repugnant notion to huge numbers of people in the west and the Israelis worry that someday they will go the way of South Africa which of course was an apartheid state and is no more at least as an apartheid state so what the Israelis would like to do is they'd like to ethnically cleanse Gaza and ethnically cleanse the West Bank so that you have a greater Israel that's filled mainly with Israeli Jews and almost all of the Palestinians are gone that's their ideal and I think they saw what happened on October 7th as an opportunity to cleanse to ethnically cleanse Gaza and that's what they set out to do and I think that was a rational strategy even though I want to make it clear I think it was an abhorent strategy from a moral point to view but it failed and the end result is they not only did not drive the Palestinians out of Gaza thankfully in my opinion but they also have not defeated Hamas do you think that Israel's seeming lack of concern of the International Community trying to stop what they're doing and the likelihood that they'll become a pariah state if they don't is irrational and how seriously they take that because if they do get you know um this way hypothetically where they take Gaza and they do what they want with it would it not just further alienate them from everyone else and and what kind of winning position the problem the problem in your argument is the use of the word everyone else right for the Israelis what really matters uh is what the United States does but not only the United States countries like Canada and countries in Europe and the fact is the Israelis can do almost anything to the Palestinians and the Americans the Canadians and the Europeans especially the West Europeans will stand by them uh we see this even with the Germans today uh who you would think given their experience with genocide would be opposing what the Israelis are doing Gaza but the Germans are standing by the Israelis the as are the Americans and pretty much everybody else in the west so the Israelis think they have a free hand here but of course in most all other places on the planet they are in deep trouble uh because people in those other places understand that the Israelis are executing a genocide and they think that this is unacceptable right so perhaps what I was trying to get at is that could a state like Israel survive this way long term if it just has the help of say a handful of powerful states long term is this and any State's interest well I think there are good reasons to think that an apartheid state cannot last over the long term and as I said before I think the Israelis themselves understand that this is not a good situation and we now have a situation where you're not only dealing with an apartheid state Israel but you're dealing with an apartheid state that is in the process of executing a genocide in Gaza and that is going to be a moral St on Israel's reputation I'm tempted to say for the foreseeable future but one could say forever this is uh a disastrous situation for Israel the Israelis tend to think they can get away with it now because Western Elites are backing them pretty much to the hilt but with the passage of time when people take stock of what happened uh after October 7th and what the Israelis are now doing uh it will I believe be disastrous for Israel's reputation so you marry the genocidal Behavior with the fact that it's an aparti State uh and Israel's future does not look promising and to your point about Israel getting help from Americans I presume that would also include the Israeli Lobby or some segments of the Israeli Lobby and you're known for your seminal book on the Israeli Lobby I'm just wondering how you've seen the Israeli Lobby develop with respect to American policy since you wrote that book and um how it's facilitating the ongoing assault or genocide on Gaza right now well there's no question that the Israel Lobby is playing a key role uh and uh keeping the West on Israel's side uh no doubt about that we wrote the article Steve Walt and I about the Israel Lobby in 2006 and then we wrote the book in 2007 so that was quite a while ago uh a good 18 years for the article I think there's no question that we have had a profound effect as a result of the article and the book on the discourse about Israel uh I think we opened up a big discussion uh or widespread discussion on the Israel Lobby the US Israeli relationship and on Israeli policy itself uh but I think we have had zero effect on actual policy right so again we've influenced the discourse for sure but in terms of actual policy zero influence and I think that tells you two things one is the lobby is incredibly powerful uh and number two I would argue that the lobby has become more powerful with the passage of time I think what's happened here is that it has become increasingly difficult to defend Israel um in uh public discourse in the west uh I I think Israeli behavior is so outrageous on occasion that the lobby has to work over time to defend Israel and I think it's fair to say that the lobby has risen to the occasion uh it's you know gotten stronger with the passage of time and it does an amazing job of protecting Israel I I want to be clear here I do not think this is in the American national interest and I don't think it's in Israel's interest as well I I think that the lobby in effect has helped lead Israel down the Primrose path so I want to be very clear on that I don't think the lobby is good for either the United States or for Israel but nevertheless it is very powerful but there's one other aspect of the lobby that we should talk about that's important to understand lobbies or interest groups and there are many of them in the united states are most effectively when they can work behind closed doors and they can work in very subtle ways and people are not talking about the influence of this Lobby or that Lobby whether it's the National Rifle Association the Cuba Lobby or the Israel lobby but what's happened over time uh and I think that we've played a key role here in bringing the Lobby's actions out into the open is that the lobby now has to engage in Smashmouth politics it has to operate out in the open in Brazen ways and therefore more and more people have become aware of the is of the Israel Lobby's presence in the American Body politic and they've become more aware of how the lobby works and this is not good for the lobby and it's not good for Israel and this is another reason why when you think about sort of where Israel will be and where the lobby will be moving forward uh it's hard to tell uh a positive story it looks like there's big trouble ahead for Israel and big trouble ahead for the lobby right well I'm glad you brought that up actually because when I was reading the article on the book it seemed that at some point that the lobby was successful in in working this way that you're talking about behind closed doors versus now it just seems like everyone knows that it's there and it's influencing politicians and policy do you see this as being a vulnerability for it now and uh it's in in a position where it can actually be weakened on account of it well it's a vulnerability because it makes it difficult to tell the story that the United States supports Israel because it's in America's strategic interest and because it is the morally correct thing to do yes what a Lobby liked to do and likes to do is make the argument that Americans support Israel down the line because it's in our interest we're birds of a feather right we're supporting our Ally Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East it shares our values this is the argument that it's morally and strategically correct to support Israel and what we said in the article and in the book is that that's not true strategically Israel is basically an albatross around America's neck and the argument that it's ethically correct to support Israel against the Palestinians has been wrong for a long long time well before October 7th and the the real reason that we support Israel is because of the lobby not because of strategic or moral logic and once the lobby is out in the open and you see the a the lobby wielding its influence in sort of uh uh very heavy-handed ways that works to undermine the argument that Israel uh and the United States are close together for strategic and moral reasons because you wouldn't need a Lobby right if there were strategic and moral reasons for a close relationship the reason you need a Lobby is because Israel is not a strategic asset it's a strategic liability and Its Behavior towards the Palestinians is morally reprehensible and I want to be clear it has been for a long period of time this is not something that started on October 7th so to deal with this situation you need a lobby but it's again best if that Lobby is in the the background uh and it is not any longer in the background I want to make one other point on this poll very important to understand that the coming of social media has changed the game in very important ways uh it was much easier to work in the background and it was much easier to sort of cover up what Israel was doing before the coming of social media with social media now they're just all sorts of video on the internet of what the Israelis are doing in Gaza there are all sorts of alternative platforms for critics of Israel to speak on regarding the war in Gaza yes the mainstream media continues to support Israel down the line but the fact is that there are alternative platforms where people can go and criticize Israel and lots of young people have turned off the mainstream media and what they do is they go to these alternative sources this is one of the principal reasons that the lobby is committed to shutting down Tik Tock uh Tik Tock runs all sorts of videos that portray uh the Israelis acting towards the Palestinians in barbaric ways and when young people see these videos on Tik Tock they obviously become remarkably sympathetic to the Palestinians and they think badly to put it mildly of the Israelis so the lobby would like to shut down Tick Tock and uh the problem is that in the age of social media there just real limits to what you can do and this this is going to cause isra huge problems moving forward this is not the old world that I grew up in where the mainstream media was all you had right right I'm wondering philosophically if you have any insight into how does the lobby actually exceed succeed in America because conceivably for example you can think of a world where politicians legislators are approached by the lobby and they say no right what you're asking is immoral human lives are at stake um but we're seeing the opposite and I'm wondering if part of the lobby success is that somehow it's able to incentivize immoral behavior and how it does that well let me talk a little bit about how the lobby operates it operates at two levels uh one of which you were talking about and one which you were not talking about the first level which you were not talking about is in terms of public opinion and in terms of dealing with the public and there the lobby is deeply concerned with controlling as much as possible the discourse it's what we were talking about before uh the lobby does not want is is real to be portrayed in a negative light uh the lobby does not want much discussion of the lobb's role in American politics right the lobby wants to control the discourse or influence the discourse as much as possible that has become exceedingly difficult to do that was the point that I was making to you early second and this is the Second Avenue of influence the lobby is interested in making sure that policy makers inside Congress and inside the executive branch and here we're talking not just about the white house but also the state department the defense department and so forth and so on making sure those policy makers support Israel unconditionally that word unconditionally cannot be underestimated so the name of the game here is to influence those policy makers now there are obviously many policy makers who think that what Israel is doing in Gaza is reprehensible but they will not speak out and they will vote in support of Israel at almost every turn there will be a few exceptions but not many that raises the question why and the answer is that in the United States to get elected to office and to remain in office campaign contributions matter enormously and the lobby is really good at providing money providing resources for individuals who support the Lobby's positions and anyone who doesn't support the Lobby's positions will find him or herself being opposed by someone in the next primary or in the next you know campaign by someone who supports Israel and who is getting a huge amount of money from pro-israel sources so politicians and this again includes politicians in the executive branch and in the legislative branch understand that there will be a huge price to pay if they don't support Israel hookline and sinker and they end up in almost all cases supporting Israel as a result if you took away the ability of the wobby to provide campaign funds for political candidates I think you would see very different voting patterns when it comes to Israel because this is not a case of all these politicians loving Israel and feeling they have to support Isel because it shares our values or it's a strategic asset they do it in good part out of fear fear that the lobby will put its crosshairs on them and defeat them for office I think this is why realism and how you explain is so fascinating because you use the word reprehensible and I I wonder why there seems to be so many politicians who are willing to cross that line or be complicit in this reprehensibility um when presumably or maybe this is a naive view according to the realist perspective where rosian moral creatures We Care fundamentally about doing first what's right not what is advantageous to the system or to power and I I wonder if if you think that the structures of power in which policy makers work are primarily um the the cause of this sort of um playing along with the lobby or does that say something about an extremely flawed human nature well the fact is that every human being has a moral compass uh and at the same time they have a set of interests uh sometimes that set of interests and the moral compass are lined up and you can pursue a policy or take action that uh is morally correct and also uh maximizes your chances of satisfying your political or economic goals but then there are those cases uh where your moral compass points in One Direction and your interest Compass points in the other direction and then the question is what do you do and there are going to be cases where people do what Their moral compass says they should do but as we both know from studying history there are lots of cases where people uh put aside what is morally correct according to their own compass and instead pursue policies that are morally incorrect but satisfy their own political or economic interests this happens uh a lot sadly and uh I think that this is a case of that uh you know you have uh a lot of people who know better uh and U they nevertheless uh think uh that from a political point of view from the point of view of their own selfish interests that what they should do uh is uh support Israel's behavior in Gaza or support Israel's treatment of the Palestinians even before October 7th yes and you alluded to it before and you've talked about it in your work this end goal that Israel has to create the greater Israel and uh I am wondering whether you see this as ultimately destructive or self-defeating for Israel and whether in so far as that might be true it would be an overstatement to call their behavior mellian um rather than say Reckless or unhinged because it seems that when we talk about mellian Behavior there's always some rationale or strategy that's involved whereas it's not so much the case when we're talking about what's Reckless or chaotic and so forth you want to understand that the Israelis ethnically cleansed uh the Palestinians in 1948 yes they ethnically cleansed lots of Palestinians uh in 1948 and then they did it again in 1967 uh in the West Bank when they captured the West Bank from Jordan so they've done massive ethnic cleansing on two occasions and they got away with it and it played a key role in creating the state of Israel so there are a number of people I've talked to a few of them over the years in Israel who believe that when the opportunity comes they will be able to ethnically cleanse Gaza and the West Bank greatly reduce the number of Palestinians and in both of those places and therefore greatly reduce the number of Palestinians in uh greater Israel and the end result is they will be much better off they will have gotten away with it yes there will be a certain moral stain that is associated with this but they'll deal with that so that's the rational argument for doing this uh and who knows they may get away with it uh you want to remember we're talking about a world here where the United States stes and the Europeans especially the Germans will basically support Israel no matter what it does so one could argue it's not such a foolish policy is it a morally bankrupt policy yes may It ultimately turn out to be a reckless policy yes but uh that remains to be seen so John thank you so much for this very Illuminating fascinating but I also have to say troubling discussion for me because it's got me to revisit some of my own assumptions about human nature and I feel sometimes inclined to believe or so that we are more altruistic than not but again I'm now going to have to revisit that I'm just wondering if there's any final thoughts or observations you'd like to share I would just know Paul that all of this is the reason that my seminal book on international relations is entitled The Tragedy of great par politics I wish that were not so but I am a realist both with with a little r and a capital R and sadly that is the way the world works but thank you very much for having me on the show my honor thank you so much John thank you

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Keywords: trt world palestine talks, trt world, palestine talks, interview, john mearsheimer, israel map, greater israel, israel palestine conflict, israel palestine history, 1967 border, two state solution, professor john mearsheimer interview, prof john mearsheimer gaza, israel map timeline, trtworld, palestine, trt, zionism, israel lobby, tiktok gaza video, tiktok israel palestine, occupation

Id: jqPQ5dUfSTw

Length: 30min 13sec (1813 seconds)

Published: Sat May 18 2024