Nutrien's Morning Minute - June 26, 2023

well good morning everybody you know the 10 days leading up to this past weekend we watched severe thunderstorms kind of come out of Colorado and roll all the way down here into the southeast this particular Corridor had over 2500 reports of severe weather including a lot of hail a lot of wind damage and isolated tornadoes now the past week we saw this development of a large ridge over Texas that began to reorient the atmosphere to where the severe weather was going to go and the map I've been drawing on here shows you the storm reports from the 23rd so looking back through over 350 reports including a lot of hail out of this plus 27 different tornadoes and then this moved into the Midwest as we worked our way into here it is this would be on the 24th and on the 24th 17 tornadoes a lot of wind damage into this area and we also had 71 reports of of large hail once this system got through parts of Iowa into Illinois it deepened as it moved this weekend into a much more organized low on Saturday night into Sunday leap frogging over parts of Illinois which was something we were very concerned about but deepening over Michigan and this with the storm reports from yesterday so this just shows you almost almost 600 reports of severe storms including a powerful and damaging tornado in Indiana there were four others reported but a lot of hail again in this area including some very large and damaging hail down here in parts of Arkansas now these storms are going to continue to press East and today the severe the threat is going to be over in parts of Virginia and North Carolina as the storm system tries to exit dumping a bunch of rain in parts of New England but I just want to show you yesterday what we saw on satellite so you can just see the storms popping here on the main frontal boundary extremely windy conditions on the backside in fact you can even see as the sun was setting some of the smoke getting pulled in on the backside of this as well but multiple complexes of storms one here one that came through Indiana and eventually got over to the Ohio river and then look at this one down here in Arkansas the evening wore on we can actually see the smoke from the Mexican wildfires and then the storms that popped into parts of you know of the Northwest and through here as we still have yet another trough of low pressure in that area so to show you where that hail was this is our last three days of hail now remember you can kind of just take a look at the color bar here and see just the size of some of the hail events that have come through here so we were worried that when drought began to bust for certain areas it was going to do so in a severe way that's typically how it works when drought begins to break in summer the atmosphere just overwhelmingly produces a lot of severe weather in order to to break past the dry barrier that's been in place there now when you look back over this last weekend's rainfall Let's see it's past 6 a.m now should be able to get an update there we go this is what the total rainfalls look like and again we were concerned about this particular area getting missed we had better confidence that of course the Northern Plains coming out of Montana and getting into the Upper Midwest including Iowa was going to see storms the question mark was how much of Illinois in Indiana that was going to be because of the timing of that frontal boundary coming through here Northern Illinois picked up some rain and so did this part of Wisconsin and then we watched the storms come racing through parts of Indiana and eventually into the rest of the Ohio Valley and up to Michigan so that was kind of the the concern about all of this so we still we're still identifying holes in this area and remember some of these storms moved quickly so the total amount of rainfall that hit some areas will evaporate relatively quickly as well so just I want to make that point now farther to the South a lot of isolated severe here and then we've continued to watch the system that plagued the sound Southeast all last week delivering in some places over 10 inches of rain work its way up toward New England so that's kind of what we saw this past weekend but I want to add some broader context to this this is the June precipitation ranks by climate District all right so this particular map does include because it's using service observations it does include the radar excuse me the rainfall from yesterday on Sunday so notice the areas that were missed and certain spots here continue to stay deep in drought we've now can fully see the effect of the flooding rains from the 10 days before this notice North Carolina really coming out of what had been a drier start after the heavy rains that came through this past week and we're still looking at just a tremendous amount of rainfall into this area all right I want to show you this several different ways though because I'm trying to just identify those spots that are still deep in their dots so let's do this in a 30 and a 60 day time frame I show you this map all the time the last 30 days percent of normal precipitation but I want to take this and Lop off everything that is below 50 so these are the areas that have received less than half of their rainfall normal rainfall in the last 30 days now these data because there's always a one day lag on this go up until um Sunday morning so this does not include the rain that did come through Indiana and and Michigan yesterday but it just shows you how dry these areas were and I even made a different map here this is all the locations that have received less than one inch of rainfall in the last 30 days now this is not unexpected here in the southwest or in California or in the Columbia Basin here getting into Central Oregon it is much drier than normal though along the coast but then if you come back to the Midwest these large Pockets that have seen less than an inch of rainfall remember this is just the last 30 days this is where we're really seeing significant you know crop stress issues the only thing I think saving this is that we've not had extreme heat yet in this particular area a few days tapping into the 90s but we've not yet gotten there now I want to make sure you see though that this area did get storms yesterday so if we just take a look here and play this you're going to watch that storm system rip through there and that's not included in the previous map that I showed you that comes from the ahps data set but again look at the size of the storm clusters that just rip through parts of the Mid-South yesterday as well now let's step it out to 60 days this is a percent of normal precipitation map for the last 60 days and I'm gonna again get rid of everything below 50 percent and this is the area that we've just watched from May into June struggle with development of drought but that's not to ignore what's been happening in the Northwest not to miss out on this as well and then I went and made a map I said who's had less than two inches of rainfall and that time frame and this would be extremely dry conditions for a 60-day time period here and I just want you to see there are Pockets throughout this area that have seen less than two inches of rainfall in the last 60 days and these are some key acres in through here that are are kind of approaching that extreme drought category now what we're waiting on this week is to see where the Texas Ridge is going to go and I'm particularly interested in a pair of shortwaves that are coming here into the west and how they're going to run over the top of this Ridge some of the new model updates have been less than generous with the way that these short waves are able to produce precipitation in the midwest as this Ridge kind of flexes East and then builds back to the West we do have for the first time this summer I think some real heat coming into California in the forecast and also we're going to watch later on this week as I said the ridge Flex is a bit east for maybe temperatures in St Louis and surrounding areas to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit but in the near term the back side of this low is still kicking a front through parts of the mid Mid-Atlantic down here into the the Carolinas and that's where we're keeping an eye out today for the risk of severe weather so there's now an enhanced risk in this region so if we were to take a look at the latest forecast data this is from the high resident model we're just using this because it is convection allowing and we're going to see that through this evening I'm going to watch carefully right in through this Corridor for possibility of a long line of kind of damaging winds from thunderstorms here hail threat is also a possibility while that's happening do notice that we have more storms throughout the Pacific Northwest we're going to watch possibly some storms coming out of Wyoming into parts of South Dakota this evening as well now we play this into the overnight hours and then into Tuesday I'm going to play a little quicker because I want you to see something can you just keep your eye right into this area okay this is 11 A.M on Tuesday playing through Tuesday evening all the way to Wednesday morning do you see the trajectory of this cluster of storms right here so it's one big storm system that exits New England we have isolated storms in the Upper Midwest we're seeing storms that are trying to run over the top of this Ridge coming out of Kansas into Oklahoma but over into Arkansas and Missouri and possibly getting across the river I'm just letting you know that while this may not look exactly like this for Tuesday and Wednesday morning this is where we currently sit with a big Ridge that's sitting over this area and it's always going to be tricky trying to figure out where the storms are going to be which is why the latest forecast from the WPC suggests that while we have higher confidence in this area being wet and isolated storms running over the ridge here confidence is kind of waning in an area and through here on how the storms are going to shape up later on this week much of the rain you see in New England that's from the current system exiting all right but where the storms are going to set up much higher confidence here and here but not so much into this area and this is the reason why if you notice the hype pattern here see the ridge showing up what this Ridge is doing on Wednesday into Thursday is eliminating the potential for that trough to dig farther into the Midwest earlier runs from the weekend had this thing diving down farther initiating more storms over some of those key dry areas and instead now this Ridge as it just opens itself up starts to just invade that space and prevent this trough from getting a little deeper so what this means is by Thursday where the storms were likely going to follow it's over the top of that Ridge and some sort of place like this while we continue to get storms coming around this trough but this one to the north means more upper midwest storms and that leaves a sector in the middle that likely gets missed out that's the system this Wednesday then as we work our way into Friday into Saturday the beginning of July we see a broader trough opening in this area but remember if you're going to want to get rain out of it on this side excuse me you have to be on the correct side of the trough so the problem is is the flow coming in the backside versus the flow exiting the trough this is where the upper level support is to make the storms so notice though by Saturday going into month Sunday Monday Tuesday we now see more ridging building here troughs coming through the Canadian Prairie so storms here heat West this is the area that I'm concerned about going forward so that just takes you out there about eight or nine days let's go ahead and look at the models here this is the zero Z European model so there's the system exiting East severe weather here today by the time we get later in the week notice you're going to watch storms kind of run over the top of that Ridge and on Thursday the European model is attempting to take some of these storm clusters and drop them right through the part of Illinois and Iowa and Wisconsin you know down here in Kentucky that needs this rainfall desperately do not see this and assume this is going to be the final solution this is all the way out there to this you know this is Thursday night and then we're just going to see storms kind of running the periphery of that Ridge in the meantime so take you out there a week and this is what you get so thankfully there's a lot of rain here getting into this part of Iowa this past weekend because this area is going to go over dryer and I'll show you the temperatures in a moment this is the GFS solution same time period so there's the European there's the GFS there are similarities here but I'm just not convinced that this Thursday event hitting some of these dry acres is going to be able to to make itself happen much better confidence here so let's go ahead and look at what that confidence looks like in terms of probabilities so there you can see it this is the probability of grabbing an inch you'd see these corridors in through here that we're looking at much higher probabilities but now you just notice there's this area in through here that we've got to continue to watch all week to see this next system evolve what about the week 2 forecast you've seen that our government the CPC just continues to open this area up to the possibility being above normal there are nuances in this pattern that suggest that this is going to be more like swiss cheese than it is just blanket you know wet in this area so we have to be careful with maps like this the European model still continues to identify a corridor here that will likely be a little drier than normal but notice how wet it is down here across the South now the GFS Ensemble has got a much broader area that has better chances for storms but as you know as of late this has been the better performing model so I need you to really maybe focus on the middle one here for what the week 2 forecast is going to be and again that's the European we continue to see today the risk of hazardous temperatures across the South and here again is where we have the severe thunderstorm watch this morning but this is going to continue to be under the influence of that Ridge and therefore quite a bit of heat still smoke North though but I want to show you what these high temperatures are going to do this week here's Monday's highs getting into Tuesday watch this heat expand here California your days are numbered for the colder weather as well so this goes into Wednesday that's where the heat starts to push here like Kansas City 103 I'm going to start to push this heat farther and farther to the east there it is 99 you know in St Louis on Thursday that's as the ridge opens there's your triple digits on Friday look at California though 103 to 106 in the Central Valley and that's going to last sorry until Saturday and Sunday now this heat that's coming into the West is symptomatic of that larger Ridge that's building there and this is some of the first heat of the Year here and it's also the first time in a while we've gotten temperatures up in the above normal category in the Southeast as well so let's just take a look here at that five-day sliding window of average temperature anomalies as I get out there and just show you the first five days of the month of July we can now see warmth trying to return to the southeast where it's been dry excuse me uh cool we can see the heat building into the corn belts this is if this is not a company with storms we're in trouble and then you see where we expect the highest chances of those storms here reflected in the temperature pattern notice this though California bringing in the heat finally so what about uh July 5th through the 10th it's what the models are suggesting here so this is beginning to become concerning in this area if these storms do not manifest themselves this week all right finally let's go out here and have a look at the context of these temperatures this is what the last 30 days have done so what you're going to notice is heat is building into this area where it's avoided it's coming into the Southwest excuse me and the Southwest as well this will be the area that starts to get a little bit of a cooler pattern but largely different by a lot of thunderstorm activity from here I want to show you what's going on in Canada real quick because let's take you back to yesterday more fires in Quebec here and some of that Wildfire smoke is trying to make its way clear across the Atlantic heading over toward Europe so there's gonna be some air quality issues in Europe from Wildfire smoke in Quebec here again is the smoke from Mexico in this area where we've had that large ridge but I wanted to show you some recent precipitation maps and we're going to come over here to China just something I'm thinking about because parts of the North China Plain of The Manchurian plane for the last 30 days have been very very dry we've had heavy rains along the Yang sea but right here this is a key growing area for some of the crops that we are competing with in the Midwest and if you look out over the next 10 days very wet in The Manchurian plain but notice the North China Plain still misses out and it just kind of reminds me of what's going on in the U.S we've had some places that have gotten too much rain right next to places that have been extremely dry also notice this extremely wet weather in parts of Australia not characteristic of the way this El Nino is developing there's a lot of warmth and dry weather for Harvest in South America going forward and flipping this around in Europe drier North wetter to the South there's been some places right in through here especially around like Switzerland and surrounding areas that have missed out on some of the really heavy rains as of late the models are trying to pick up on some wetter conditions there okay let's get off to a new week here in a good fashion and we'll talk again tomorrow morning actually tonight we got the in-depth tonight looking forward to giving you that too talk to you then thanks

Channel: Nutrien Ag Solutions

Views: 8,609

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Id: TBnx-8nnWnM

Length: 16min 22sec (982 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 26 2023