NSW case number average continues to drop and Vic potentially slowing down | ABC News

some changes from the new premiere i guess um putting his you know mark on what is this uh roadmap going forward and all of these changes for the most part well they're still restricted to vaccinated fully vaccinated people and so for that reason um you know they're kind of they're they're they're variations on the roadmap that we've seen already laid out with a couple of sort of significant changes in the indoor swimming pools can open next week and 80 there's a few more changes like mask rules in office buildings will drop but the picture that we're looking at at the moment is 587 cases today this trend line continues to drop and it'll be a bit easier to see on the seven day average which is down to 680 cases a day now a week ago this was above 900 so we you know it's pretty reasonable for us to think that by about this time next week uh the seven day average will be below 500 which is we should say significantly lower than a lot of the independent modelers who have been looking at this case curve suggested we might be at the time new south wales is opening up they were you know looking at models that were predicting in the high thousands or even higher numbers of cases so we're significantly lower that you know buys you a bit more breathing room uh to um open up and we're also below the hospitalization peaks that you know the modeling from new south wales health predicted but what we're expecting is we'll see this continue to drop for about another week on monday the rules will ease you know four maybe five days after that we'll start to see if there's been an effect of that rule easing of the fact that we're allowing more people to circulate in new south wales uh the virus has more opportunities to spread only among fully vaccinated people mind you as long as the rules are largely being followed so we'll start to see if uh there's an effect there and if that effect is significant um it is not a fatal complaint that uh cases will rise from next week but it is you know a pretty reasonable expectation there'll be a little bit less downward pressure on that um and we'll start to then see as well as as the weeks go on and we continue to lift uh see restrictions lift what which packages which parcels will have the most impact we're still watching hospitalizations dropping um intensive care and ventilation numbers as well in new south wales are starting to drop reliably now so those numbers are all improving and we're significantly as i said below the burner institute modeling for new south wales health the predictions for where that would be so i think we start to see restrictions ease we'll then learn a bit more about how important some of these rules that are in place at the moment are and how much you can get away with it's a pretty delicate dance here right yeah the national cabinet plan um still says and the dougherty modelling and the doherty institute is still recommending strong suppression for quite some time still while the vaccination rates continue to climb so the delicate dance at the moment is can you keep downward pressure on cases and therefore hospitalizations and deaths while starting to ease off on some of the rules and regulations and restrictions that are really you know curbing people's freedoms at the moment the things that people can do and the ways people can live their lives and can you keep those two in balance in such a way that you don't see a big escalation in cases in the next um you know few weeks certainly while we wait for the vaccination rates to climb even higher than they currently are so the first test of that comes next week it's not a definite guarantee that these cases will spiral out of control or anything like that but we'll watch very closely to see what happens and the tweaks that have been announced today by the government i mean this is sort of curious in some ways because there weren't a lot of people out there massively campaigning for you know bigger picnics and larger home visits in the next couple of weeks so um you know in some ways it's a bit curious about why they've done it because uh you know if if there are big spikes in cases next week um people will point back at this tweaking of rules as perhaps one of the causing factors so in some ways it's curious but in a lot of ways you know it's a it's a sort of slight expansion on what we've already seen announced and what the plan already was for next week yeah so in victoria then casey we've been watching for some signs of stability in hot spot areas are we seeing any sign of that yet uh let's say maybe roz it's a bit early to sort of say anything definitive i'll take you through three pictures though this is the case numbers that we're looking at 1638 more cases today so the the rate of growth does look like it's settled back down a bit if you take out the step change the the extra jump in cases we saw last week if you sort of ignore that inc big increase the rate of change of this curve is not really doing too it's not growing too much and so that does bode well uh for a number of reasons we're sort of waiting you know where every expectation is this curve will bend uh because of the you know impact of the the long lock down we're now look victoria's now in sorry um plus the effect of vaccines especially in those hotspot areas we're just waiting to see when that will actually happen the seven day average in victoria you can see is sort of leveled out a little bit just today um it does look like it's maybe slowing down but i you know we've seen it slow down a bit before and then speed up again because of other factors but fourteen hundred cases a day and what we're really watching is these areas here hume and this is the reason i'm saying maybe we will see something fairly soon 272 cases a day but look you know it was growing relatively quickly it's flattened out it's actually dropped a little bit just on today's numbers you know cases have been flat in hume for a couple of days now that does point toward some real improvement in that area you

Channel: ABC News (Australia)

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Keywords: Australia, abc, abc news, news, nsw news, vic news, nsw covid, vic covid, nsw covid update, vic covid update, casey briggs, casey briggs abc, casey briggs covid

Id: yhmMW05OJrA

Length: 5min 53sec (353 seconds)

Published: Wed Oct 06 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/Paddington_Bear]

Of course Vic is going to slow down. We don't truly have Reff=1.4, we have Reff of perhaps 1.1 with one mad day of Reff of maybe 2.5 blurred into it (and echoing via household contacts). We're just reaching the end of the second generation of GF cases, and should see the underlying trend reemerge over the next couple of days.