Niall Ferguson On Brexit And 2020

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I said before the referendum that, and I should make clear that I was on the side of remain, that Brexit would be like a divorce, that it would take longer and cost more than its proponents expected. And once it got done, they would then have to face the reality that not all the problems were really the fault of their ex-wife. And that's pretty much proved to be right in that. It has taken a lot longer and is going to be a lot more expensive than anybody could campaign for Brexit claimed back in 2016. The issue has become wildly complicated because of the politics of the House of Commons. In the end, Theresa May became prime minister after the referendum, has managed the negotiations of the divorce quite poorly with the result that we haven't really got a Brexit agreement or withdrawal agreement that commands a majority in the House of Commons. Now the analogy is more like a student who's got behind with the paper and is asking the professor for an extension. It may be that the Europeans will say no, but I'd be pretty surprised because nobody really wants a hard no deal. Brexit would be disruptive for Europe as well as for Britain. So my expectation is that there will not be a successful vote on Theresa May's withdrawal agreement. There will be an extension to allow the negotiations to continue within the House of Commons. And we will get to yet another cliff edge later this year, perhaps in June, and nothing much will have changed. At which point I imagine the student will come to the professor and ask for yet another extension. This thing is going to drag on like many divorces cost a lot more than anybody expected because during all of this, investment in the UK has dipped down and the economy is clearly being affected. Well, I did warn you all. In 2011, I wrote a piece for The Wall Street Journal which correctly predicted that Grexit wouldn't happen, that Greece wouldn't leave the monetary union, but Brexit it would, that Britain would leave the European Union. And the reason for that was that it's actually easier to leave the EU than it is to leave the euro. Britain isn't in the euro, didn't adopt the single currency, and so it was always more likely that there'll be a referendum on EU membership. Whereas in Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, the costs of going back to a national currency are unfathomably high. So I think the key point is that that Brexit is sui generis, that there are very few other countries in a position to do what Britain has done. And it was a mistake to think that there would be contagion from Brexit. Actually, what happened was that almost immediately after the Brexit referendum, support for the EU went up. If anything, the sheer messiness of Brexit is acting as a deterrent, which I think is precisely what the Europeans wanted to happen. Just one reason they played hardball with Britain all long. However, I don't think the future of the European Union is especially bright without Britain. The financial structure of the European Union is strange. It is a monetary union, but it has no fiscal union that hasn't really been fixed, which means that the next financial crisis when it comes along will have very similar effects to the last one. It will be very asymmetrical. It will hurt southern Europe, but not northern Europe. Germany has been fine through the financial crisis. All the pain has been felt on the periphery and that fundamental problem hasn't been fixed. Secondly, immigration is a far more problematic issue for Europe than it is for the United States. There aren't, in fact, large numbers of people coming across the U.S.-Mexican border. There are large numbers of people who are coming or want to come across the Mediterranean from North Africa, from Middle East and even from South Asia. And the Europeans do not have a good answer to this problem. And the more this problem looms, the more national governments diverge from one another. So the real European disintegration is not taking the form of exits in which one country or another vote to leave. The real disintegration of Europe is coming because there is no European solution to the migration crisis. And that means that one country after another is going to go down the populist route. 10 years from now, when the divorce is finally gone through and Britain has left the European Union, we'll wonder what all the fuss was about because will have left something that was essentially disintegrating. It'll be a little bit like getting a divorce and then your ex drops dead and you spend all that money on the divorce courts. If only you'd known how sick the ex was. The European Union is sick and people don't really want to admit that. Least of all in Brussels 10 years from now, I think it will be greatly weakened institution. It won't be dead, but it will be moribund. Is European integration like riding a bike? Are you fine as long as you keep going forward, but fall off when you stop? I'm inclined to think it's a bit like that and know that integration has stopped, the process of disintegration will be really hard to resist. I do think that economically things are going better than most Democrats or indeed mainstream economists want to admit. After all, the economy in 2018 did grow at around 3 percent. And if inflation doesn't show up, then rates won't go up. Under those conditions, with the Fed essentially on on pause mode, ready for inflation, but not too worried about it, then I think the economy is not going to suffer a recession in 2019. I find that highly unlikely. It's not going to grow as fast because the big impetus from the tax cuts at the end of 2017 is largely gone. But if you look at the most recent numbers, investment in nonresidential assets was pretty high still in the last quarter, and that investment will in turn have consequences for productivity in 2019. So I guess standard view of many people, particularly towards the end of last year, was are terrible stuff is coming. There's going to be a recession because, well, gee, isn't it time for a recession? It's been ages since we had one. I think that kind of thinking was distinctly fuzzy when the economy was at full employment, but there was no inflation really in sight. If the Fed had continued to tighten into the first half of this year, I think we might well have ended up with a recession or at least a significant slowdown. But the Fed changed its mind big time in January, and I think this is a huge shift away from a rather formal model based approach to monetary policy to one in which the Fed is going to wait and see. I think that because the economy is is doing relatively well, there is a real tailwind for this presidency. The most commentators in New York and in Washington and on the West Coast are underestimating. At the same time what we see is the Democrats, as I mentioned before, lurching to the left with the Green New Deal and a bunch of other policies on tax that sound great if you're in New York City, but don't sound so great to the rest of the country. So my sense is that 2019 is going to be a very, very misleading year and it's going to incline many people to expect Trump to be a one term president and they're to be left leaning, potentially female candidate winning in 2020. I don't think that's going to happen. And in that sense, I think the strange compromise between Republican tax and regulation policies and populist immigration and trade policies could turn out to work quite well. It's certainly way too early to start writing the obituaries on the Trump presidency. There's no question that the erosion of trade union power is one reason why workers have lost bargaining power. But I don't think it's by any means the only explanation. Technology has played a part. And globalization has played a part. Probably globalization has played the larger part. And Chinese workers in particular entered the global labor force in the 80s and 90s and into the 2000s. The returns on unskilled labor in developed countries were going to fall. Even of trade unions had somehow managed to preserve their power intact. And the same applies to the increasing use of technology to displace labor. So we are in a world in which the returns to labor have been depressed and the returns to capital have been significantly enhanced. Well, the most interesting number to look at is labor force participation. Prime age male labor force participation in the United States is low by international standards and it declined really quite steeply over the last decade. The question is, does that reverse itself or have people left the labor market never to return? And we don't quite know the answer yet. Some evidence from recent months suggests that people are returning to the workforce who'd left it. If that's so then the labor market has more slack in it than we thought and therefore, it's not as tight a labor market as some economists had feared. Now, it's not all bad news. I mean, at some point, it seems to me that tight labor markets that we see in many countries, particularly the United States, ought to translate into higher wages. That's taking longer than most economists would have predicted. In fact, we're all kind of scratching our heads wondering why wages aren't going up faster and why inflation isn't going up faster. I think one reason that that's not happening, although there are a bunch, is that many people, even if they are in employment, are asking themselves the question, at what point does the autonomous vehicle or the iPad or whatever it is, come along and make me obsolete? The bad news, if you were planning on living off relatively unsophisticated skills is that it's not about to get better. The problem is really that many of us arrive at the moment of employment, not really having acquired skills that are likely to earn as a good income. There is a big mismatch between what the economy wants and what we are educating people to do. The problem lies, I think in large measure in public education at the high school level. There is also a problem in the college level. There's a lot of bad education out there that really equips young Americans very poorly for the modern economy. When you look at where Americans come in in the league tables for educational attainment at age 15, it's kind of appalling. There is a real quality problem in in public education in the United States. And that, I think, is where we spend much more of our attention as a society. It depresses me how little discussion there is in America today of education. It has become the invisible topic in policy debate. I think if we don't address that issue, we condemn a substantial proportion of our population to if not poverty, then at least stagnation. Will not get out of the bottom quintile of the income distribution if that's where they started. So top of my agenda for reform would be, reform education and try to give people who are in that bottom quintile a much better chance than we currently give them.
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Channel: CNBC
Views: 197,257
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Keywords: CNBC, business news, finance stock, stock market, news channel, news station, breaking news, us news, world news, cable, cable news, finance news, money, money tips, financial news, Stock market news, stocks, Niall Ferguson, Brexit, what is brexit, brexit news, brexit date, backstop brexit, theresa may, UK prime minister, Niall Ferguson stanford, grexit
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Length: 12min 52sec (772 seconds)
Published: Tue Mar 26 2019
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