Horne, Markets correspondent here on the network. Thanks so much. Thanks, Caroline. Alright let's get some more market insights for that will welcome in Howard Silverblatt senior index analyst S and P. Dow Jones indices. Howard, Thanks so much for joining us on this Friday. Thank you and they've gotten up to the acid. I am now compliant with my streaming as well. Ah well, hey, you You actually paid for your membership now I'm still on the fence. I have to decide what I'm going to do. All right, Let's talk about this market, the S and P officially out of bear market territory up 20% from those October lows. Howard, are you looking at this as a new bull market, though? No not yet. Technically we are in a bull run. So we're up 20% from a recent world, but we are still well off the January the 2022 high, which was almost 4800 so again, this is common within a bear or bull market gets queens up and down. The positive here is that we all will off the bottom. It shows momentum and with seeing now more participation. It's not just heavy, still is A bit top heavy . It takes 20 of the top issues to make the index negative. At the end of May, it was 10 that's still very large number, but we're seeing more issues move up on here and too broad again. So this 20% will not a bull market . It's a bull run, and it's significant to the individual stocks. Should we look at this rally as vulnerable because it's been so skinny, the same 7 to 10 S and P 500 stocks really what's leading it higher Or should we look at that as a positive in that the other sectors or companies haven't caught up yet and there is the potential to do so. Mhm There's always the potential in something is down, so and that's what we're seeing some of now, so that's encouraging. But yes, you need to know who is dominating your returns on the market weighted basis. It is those top eight issues seven companies that have been doing that, so investors need to know if there was an index its balance and that's what it's supposed to do. But if you're doing individual issues, except in sectors you need to realize you know where you are and what the amount The weights are At this point in time. But it's definitely something investors need to know, depending upon what kind of trading they're doing. Okay So let's talk about the S and P 500 because 4200 was really that key level passed through that without a problem now trading above 4300. What's this? The significance of that and that? Does that turn you any more bullish? The fact that it not only hit 4300 but is now trading above it, And I think it's the first time since what August of last year We'll see how to have the clothes goes, but we definitely know the 20% above the, uh, the October 12th those , uh, going to 4200 did not seem that easy at the time when they look back and say it was now in the forties wage, But we put a lot behind. You put the banking situation mostly behind another probably still be some more regional banks that have to be dealt with. We've put the debt issue, mostly behind it. This point of spending issues in the October appreciate appropriation situation that will come. So why do these things that behind and the market at this point appears to accept what the Fed is going to do? We expect it to hold at this point, but even if they increase it by the court of a point at this point, depending upon what Powell says that his confidence it will be accepting the market. We've we've seen recently. Actually that, uh This week we saw both of Australia and Canada increased a quarter of a point, but they had paused for a while. So the cause or the pores, review and increase Ah still seems like a feasible situation at this point, the bottom line for the market that makes it positive. As long as pals we marked good, and it shows that then end to it and potentially a reduction. We have some Fog and hunting on the issues that didn't go up as much . We did see some path taking for a couple of days on those top issues, but money managers appear to be holding onto the majority of their positions on there so that that will stabilize the top. So Howard. Obviously Powell could be a bit of a wild card next week. But ultimately where is this market heading from here? Ah I think that's gonna depend on how the earnings go. We have a big variants at this point in time, Bottom up analysts. Equity analysts are seeing the second half earnings as not just up but double digit up as well as a record when he talked to US economists and strategists. They see a lot of headwinds in there and that the earnings actually will drop. So as we get those second quarter earnings in which right now it's supposed to just be BR break. Even with the whisper number maybe about 1.5 2. We'll get the guidance for the second half more in in in all going to what the reality, Maybe so that could test the market after we're done with the Fed at this point in time, then, of course, the dry meaning for the state will be in there. But it will be earnings that will the Michael will start focusing in when they go down issue by issue to see what the guidance for the second half is and whether the and also light for the Economist Traditionally, the economists, uh, do call downturn on earnings a lot quicker. Uh there what? West widely to call the end of it, but they are equipped to call the start of the downturn on earnings. Alright earnings just one of the many headwinds this market faces , but seems a lot harder to be a bear at this point market Pretty resilient. Howard Silverblatt s and P Dow Jones indices.
