Neutrality in Europe after 2022

this video is about neutral countries in Europe how recent events have impacted neutral countries in Europe what may be the consequences for them and what the end of Scandinavian neutrality May mean for Europe media coverage is one way to get a sense of a country's position on geopolitical conflict but it is important to pay close attention to where the information is coming from ground news is an app and website I use to verify information and get access to thousands of local and international sources in one place one topic I'll touch on in this video is the potential construction of an Irish defense industry to defend Irish neutrality using Grand news I can search for stories about Ireland's current policy and see that there's a forum scheduled for June where Ireland will ask the public for their views on the country's tradition of military neutrality I can see that there are Publications from the UK Germany Ukraine and of course Ireland reporting on this story as you can imagine the way this is covered by local sources in Ireland could be quite different from how it is reported in Ukraine with ground news I can compare the these articles and even get an overview of the political affiliation of the source of the information for a more nuanced understanding of the issue in the app I can actually move around the world to see stories that are most prominent in certain regions and how they are being covered by news outlets on the ground and what political biases might be at play ground news has become an essential tool for me in researching the full story on topics like this and more if you like me want a comprehensive view of what is happening around the world check out ground.news crowd for free or subscribe through my link for 30 off unlimited access thank you to ground news for sponsoring this video one of the most substantial changes to European politics since the Russian invasion of Ukraine regards neutrality and since Finland joined NATO I thought I'd take a moment to talk about neutrality in Europe and how it is changing Sweden and Finland abandoning their neutrality to seek out NATO membership will have an enormous impact on the European political landscape that should not be overlooked and this war will also have a substantial impact on the remaining neutral countries here's something that many have overlooked throughout the last year Ukraine officially was a neutral country I am sure many of you are surprised by this it is often as mentioned before overlooked but yes technically on paper Ukraine was neutral in its 1991 Declaration of Independence her lawmakers declared their intention to construct a neutral State and that neutrality was also written into the Ukrainian constitution in 1996 as part of the Budapest memorandum as part of this agreement Ukraine also gave up its Soviet inherited nuclear weapons and got guarantees on sovereignty from Russia and the United States Russia violated that agreement in 2014 and Ukraine consequently dropped its neutrality and Ukraine has spent the years since trying to find either a new partnership with the west or get guarantees from Russia that it will finally respect its sovereignty and what happened to Ukraine forced the remaining neutral European countries to face a very uncomfortable question namely what good did neutrality do for Ukraine because of fact we can all currently observe is that Ukraine's neutrality did not guarantee her peace the opposite Ukrainian neutrality made Ukraine more vulnerable and neutral Europe is also forced to confront another very uncomfortable fact that being that neutrality ultimately means that if you are attacked you will stand alone yes many states are sending military aid to Ukraine but no soldiers Ukraine will fight this alone ukrainians will have to win this learn all that states who support Ukraine can do is attempt to alleviate the Ukrainian suffering by sending them weapons Superior to Russian weapons share Intelligence on Russia provide military training and Logistics Sheltering Ukrainian refugees putting pressure onto Russia and guaranteeing Ukraine NATO membership after this war to guarantee she will no longer be alone confronting this has been especially impactful on Scandinavians Sweden has spent years now being continuously harassed by the Russians for almost 20 years the Russians have been flying nuclear bombers into Swedish airspace simulated nuclear attacks and Stockholm and gutland harassed Swedish ships with submarines violated her territorial Waters with nuclear submarines constantly threatening the swedes and tried to interfere in Swedish Politics the swedes reacted by bolstering their military spending and reintroducing a conscription Army but now after recent events for the swedes the prospect of standing alone in case of Russian aggression was simply no longer tenable recent events have had an even greater impact on Finland if you ever read any history books about the winter war with first-hand the counts by Finnish veterans or if you ever interviewed or watched an interview with or talked to a Finnish winter War veteran you will have probably heard the following sentence we had to fight alone it is almost The Unofficial motto of an entire generation of Finland it is a historic fact that has heavily lingered in the historic consciousness of the Finnish people since the winter war and consequently had a substantial impact on shaping The Finnish National character and identity across multiple Generations finland's neutrality was the result of something called finlandization after a set of wars in which the Soviet Union attempted to conquer Finland Finland was able to retain its sovereignty in exchange for surrendering territory and becoming neutral for a treaty with the Soviet Union in accordance with this treaty a Finnish borders were ever violated by NATO during a war with the Soviet Union Finland would have to join the war on the side of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union in exchange for not interfering in the internal politics of Finland would get a say in Finnish defense politics this in case you wondered is also why the Finnish Armed Forces used to use a lot of Soviet equipment so the entirety of finland's neutrality was conditioned on an understanding and partnership with Russia in other words Finnish neutrality was based on an agreement that could have only worked as long as Russia was deemed a trustworthy International partner and this is important because it meant that finland's neutrality in many ways was one of the most important diplomatic factors indicating Russia's trustworthiness on the international stage meaning Finnish neutrality was more valuable to Russia than it was to Finland because it meant that no matter what Russia did as long as Finland remained neutral Russia still had a degree of trustworthiness on the international stage Finnish trust in Russia to uphold disagreement was a measure of Russian trustworthiness you may now understand why Finland breaking with its neutrality has done irreparable damage to Russia in European diplomacy it now means that Russia has nothing to point at as proof of its trustworthiness only a long record of behavior that deems it as untrustworthy as to what the end of Swedish and Finnish neutral to means for European Defense and security well there are people with background in military analysis who have done far better videos than I ever could I will direct you towards one channel in particular perun who has a background in defense economics and made two long videos on European Defense and one specifically on the end of Swedish and Finnish neutrality links will be in the description but in short it is a complete disaster for Russia overall the current geopolitical situation in Europe is nothing short of a disaster for Russia Europe now basically stands United as it has not been since the Napoleonic Wars and yes we have to go as far back as the Napoleonic Wars to appreciate how substantial the changes to European security are since it was then that Sweden became a neutral state in many ways the changes to the European political landscape remind me of the end of the first and second world wars and how the ends of these conflicts completely trashed the previous geopolitical European system commonly known as the concert of Europe after the Napoleonic era the concept of Europe was a system of power balances created among European states with the intention of preventing major European Wars and a cool factor in the concept of Europe was neutrality Denmark Sweden Norway the Netherlands and in particular Belgium were all neutral states in the 19th century and early 20th century and their neutrality was intended to be a core component of maintaining a peaceful balance in Europe in particular Belgium Belgium did not choose neutrality neutrality was forced on it by the British the British believed this Belgian neutrality would prevent both France and Germany from dominating Europe and the neutrality of the Belgian state was a form of neutrality that we no longer see today because it is considered to be a complete political failure a dependent neutrality with foreign guarantors meaning Belgium did not build a huge Army to defend themselves but would rely on others in case of being invaded Belgium if invaded by France would have the British and Germans to support them and if Belgium was invaded by Germany then Britain and France would come to defend Belgium now this may sound great on paper but if you know even the most basic minimum about the history of the first and second world wars then you will know that this idea was a complete and utter disaster for Belgium and really for Europe at large Belgian neutrality was supposed to prevent a large European War but because it was constructed to entangle others it did the opposite and acted as a catalyst for a large European war and in an act of incredible European wisdom the kind of which you will only find here it was decided that Belgium should continue this form of neutrality after the first world war the second world war also unraveled the weaknesses of neutrality that we touched upon before the Netherlands Denmark Belgium Austria Yugoslavia Norway Lithuania Estonia Latvia and Finland were all neutral countries and that neutrality did absolutely nothing to protect them from Nazi or Soviet aggression turkey Sweden and Portugal are also neutral States during this period and watched in horror how useless neutrality was for those who were invaded we in fact know today that Nazi to Germany was planning to invade Sweden and would have gone through with it if things hadn't started going south for them in 1943 so at the end of the second world war these countries faced the same question that many face watching the war in Ukraine today namely the question of what good did neutrality do for Ukraine in the end in 1945 after the war was over neutral countries in Europe had to ask what good did neutrality do for anyone in Europe and consequently most of them decided to end neutrality and join NATO with that comparison you may now see why I believe that what we are currently seeing can be somewhat compared to the end of the second world war in particular the fate of one country forced many to confront the disadvantages of neutrality Czechoslovakia as you all probably know during the Munich conference the Nazis were granted the sadatan lands as the czechoslovaks were sold out by the British and French but there's one point in the Munich agreement that many forget Czechoslovakia was Allied to Britain and France but as part of the Munich agreement Czechoslovakia was forced by the Nazis to give up all alliances and become a neutral State as we know today this neutrality was never meant to be sincere or respected by the Nazis the Nazis used this neutrality to neuter the remaining czechoslovak state so they could later invade and Annex it meaning the Nazis were aware that neutrality meant a country would stand alone and therefore use neutrality as a weapon against their Czech victims in fact the Nazis would continue to abuse neutrality throughout the second world war something we often forget about the invasions of Denmark Norway Belgium and the Netherlands is that the Nazis officially Justified every single one of them by claiming that they were securing and protecting the neutrality of these countries this is something worth remembering today when Russia justifies its aggressions towards neighbors by claiming that they are doing so in order to protect their neutrality but if neutrality is so risky then you may why even do neutrality in the first place well it's not just geopolitics it also has a lot to do with internal development neutrality is great especially for citizens of neutral States there's a reason why the Swiss passport is the single most valuable personal document that a human being can earn Swiss citizens have visa-free travel and entry to 185 countries you will never be extradited from Switzerland to another country no matter what crime you committed abroad even if it is genocide you're able to open a bank account almost everywhere in the world you have the least restrictions on owning foreign bank accounts as well as on owning and transferring foreign currencies foreign assets and foreign properties to add on top of that the Swiss can work and live visa-free in 152 countries and even enter 52 of these without their passports Swiss citizenship is the most valuable citizenship in the world followed by Singaporean citizenship neutral citizenship is more valuable than citizenship of non-neutral states the passports of Switzerland Austria Singapore Costa Rica Ireland Japan and Panama grant their holders more economic and travel Liberties than the passports of other countries in their regions neutrality if well managed is very beneficial to Citizens and this is not just restricted to neutral states that are democratic and non-democratic neutral State like Singapore can grant the same benefits and it is also not restricted to what is commonly known as the West Yugoslavia for example was the single most open and well-functioning of all the Communist States Yugoslav neutrality meant that Yugoslav citizens had far more Liberties and benefits than citizens of any other communist state they could travel abroad get educated abroad attain and spend foreign currencies neutrality can also be mismanaged Mexico is a neutral state but plagued by instability Mexico was never able to take advantage of this in the same way that Panama and Costa Rica neutrality can only provide benefits to Citizens if there is a functioning State behind it that can guarantee those benefits to Citizens if the state is dysfunctional neutrality itself can gradually erode but above all neutrality comes at a cost almost every neutral country has mandatory military service and usually keeps an effective military force as valuable as the Swiss passport is all Swiss men have to serve a mandatory five years of their life in the Swiss Army Switzerland has one of the largest armies in Europe and spends huge sums maintaining that Army and this is to guarantee Swiss neutrality because one thing we often forget about neutrality as mentioned before is that neutrality despite all its benefits ultimately means that you will stand alone in case of War you have no friends you also have no enemies but because of this everyone is a potential enemy if you want an idea of how big defense spending can be for neutral countries and how damaging it can also be all you need to do is look at Yugoslavia it is commonly known by now that one of the main reasons Yugoslavia collapsed was its massive crippling national debt that national debt came to be for two factors first Tito took a huge loan from the IMF in the 1950s that he knew Yugoslavia could never pay back but he didn't care Tito was convinced that capitalism would collapse and end within his lifetime so he took this massive IMF loan to build Yugoslav infrastructure in the belief that the banks he borrowed the money from would no longer exist in a few decades and the second factor that so immensely racked up the Yugoslav national debt and which often is overlooked was Yugoslav defense spending Yugoslav defense spending was massive and for good reason the Soviet Union had plans to invade Yugoslavia and turn it into a Soviet puppet on at least three occasions Tita had spies in the Warsaw Pact who told him of this but Tito had to also worry about a possible Invasion by NATO so Tito had to build a Yugoslav Army that could honor its own fight off a Warsaw Pact Invasion which meant buying a huge amount of Western weapons but Tita also had to build a Yugoslav Army so it could fight off a NATO Invasion which meant buying an equally big arsenal of Soviet weapons but to add the cherry on top of this defense Bill Tito remembered the Hitler style impact when Nazi Germany had the Soviet Union conspired to Carver Poland he was haunted by that event and feared that America and the Soviet Union could secretly conspire to invade Yugoslavia at the same time and carve it up between them and because of this Tita also built a huge domestic military industry so the Yugoslav Army could fight against both NATO and the Warsaw Pact at the same time all in all this enormous defense spending created one of the largest weapons arsenals in Europe and the enormous costs of creating and maintaining that huge Arsenal are one of the main reasons for the collapse of Yugoslavia in a cruel bit of irony that Arsenal was in the end used by the peoples who made up Yugoslavia against each other and more than that much of the massive Yugoslav weapons Arsenal just disappeared into the hands of criminal organizations and black market arm Stealers Yugoslav weapons were used in Italian mafia crimes in islamist terrorist attacks in France and have turned up in almost every conflict since the year 2000 from Afghanistan to Iraq to Lebanon to Syria to Mali to the Mexican drug war ironically the defensive guarantor of Yugoslav neutrality which was one of the main pillars for Global Peace and security during the Cold War ended up becoming one of the main contributors to Global insecurity after the collapse of Yugoslavia neutral country defense spending in general tended to be very large especially during the Cold War there are only few neutral countries that do not have large defense spending like Costa Rica a country that abolished its military in 1949 and simply assumed that nobody will ever invade It Anyway a bold strategy you may say but so far it has actually worked in Europe since the end of the Cold War many European neutral countries have cut down their defense spending and for them this war is a considerable wake-up call in particular for one country Ireland because Ireland is a bit of an exception kind of like Costa Rica because Ireland also barely ever invested in defense before before this war broke out the Russian Air Force sometimes simulated nuclear attacks on Ireland but the Irish usually just dismissed this as a Russian match of stupidity or joked about it but a mere months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine Ireland had scuffles with the Russian Navy mucking about in her territorial Waters this is a huge threat to Ireland if Russia were to for example cut Ireland's underwater internet cable infrastructure there's little to nothing Ireland could do about it why it would wreck almost the entire Irish economy overnight the Irish also realized that they have little to nothing to confront a Russian nuclear bomber right now and this may surprise you Ireland barely even has an Air Force or air defense if a Russian nuclear bomber or Navy vessel were heading for Ireland the Irish could literally do nothing but beg the English to help them let's be clear about one thing Ireland will not give up its neutrality neutrality is at this point a core part of Irish National and political identity but I do believe that the Irish will now invest considerably more in defense and that in terms of how the wound Ukraine impacts neutral European States I believe it will have the biggest impact on Ireland in the coming years we will probably see the Irish discuss their defense more especially how they can protect their territorial Waters and airspace predictions are a Fickle thing to make but I would not be surprised if the Irish will be going to Sweden in the coming years to buy a fleet of griffins to guard their seas and airspace of course alternatively Ireland could do deeper defense cooperation with Britain but doing that would open the door to potentially ending neutrality in general which is why I do not think the Irish will do that and really the only thing Ireland would need to defend itself is an Air Force and anti-ship missiles the reason why I called Ireland somewhat special is that among European neutral countries Ireland has always been somewhat of an odd one out not just because Ireland has always slacked behind in defense spending neutrality means you will have to stand alone in the case of war and because of that fact neutral countries always heavily invest in having their own domestic defense Industries look at any neutral country in Europe and you will see that they all have massive defense Industries this may strike some viewers as weird because there is a false and unfortunately very popular notion especially among Americans that neutrality means passive and demilitarization and that is just untrue neutrality usually means that you are armed to the teeth so you can guarantee your neutrality and because you are alone it means you have to be able to make your own weapons and Ireland was for decades the only neutral country in Europe that had and still has no noteworthy defense Industries whatsoever I'm pretty sure this will change in the coming decade I am convinced that Ireland will not give up its neutrality but it will provide subsidies and tax incentives for the creation of a domestic defense industry if we move on from Ireland we also saw another side of neutrality throughout the last year at this point I would like to go back to revisit a historic moment from the 1990s on the 7th of May 1995 the Swiss president Casper filiga during a special session of the Swiss Parliament apologized on behalf of the Swiss state and peoples to the victims of the second world war where you may ask why did the Swiss do that during the second world war Switzerland was neutral and was now part within the conflict well Switzerland refused to Grant entry to fleeing Jews and Switzerland continued to do business with and collaborate with the Nazi regime it helped exchange foreign currencies for the Nazis it provided tradable resources it helped in the processing and sale of stolen goods from gold teeth ripped from the corpses of dead Jews are stolen from National Galleries and private collections to exchanging the national gold reserves that the Nazis stole from the National Banks of Czechoslovakia Poland Austria Belgium and others The Stereotype of the Swiss Banker hoarding Nazi gold exists for a reason because it is based on real historical events a history the Swiss eventually confronted in the 1990s and apologized for the Swiss have since the 1990s viewed their neutrality differently they are still largely passive when faced with outside conflict but the Swiss are far less likely to do business with aggressor countries and will increasingly ask questions about the efficacy of the assets and partners they trade with this is a slow and gradual political process that has been happening in Switzerland since the 1990s Italian viewers probably know a lot about this Swiss banks were for decades a Lifeline that kept the Italian mafia alive but with the change in attitude in the 1990s the Swiss finally stopped taking Italian mafia money many critics of neutrality often say that it is just an excuse to be a coward I don't think that is true I would argue that the biggest moral weakness of neutrality is that it can be little more than a thin Vineyard to hide behind while profiteering from conflict and the misery of others it can therefore be self-centered and almost parasitic the Swiss learned their lessons from their mistakes during the second world war and we are consequently not seeing the Swiss repeat them today the Swiss are for example condemning Russia and that is very very very very very significant I cannot over State how significant this is for European politics I mean do you have any idea how long lasting and unchanging Swiss neutrality has been for the last 500 years if there's war we are not there the fact that the Swiss took a position on a war that is a really big deal and potentially marks a huge change in how the Swiss to foreign policy it is like seeing a pig with laser eyes fly but since the born Ukraine we are also to a degree still seeing the sort of passive phony neutrality that Switzerland practiced before the 1990s but not in Switzerland but in Austria yes Austria shipped Small Arms blankets and some humanitarian Aid to Ukraine but Austria is also using its neutral status to circumvent sanctions and allow its banking sector to continue operations in Russia Austrian Banks still operate in Russia even providing Financial Services to soldiers and functionalism means by which Russia can still Access Financial Services in the west within Austria itself this seems to be close to no opposition to this and since I live here I can tell you that from what I see many Austrian conservatives but especially the political right want Austria to be more like Switzerland not only in terms of State Powers being handed down more to Regional governments and deregulating the banking sector but also in terms of how to view neutrality many on the Austrian political right believe that Austria should adopt the type of neutrality that Switzerland abandoned in the 1990s Serbia is increasingly also practicing this type of neutrality and it really looks like Hungary is increasingly questioning its own NATO membership and would instead prefer to practice the type of neutrality that Austria and Serbia is increasingly practicing I believe these three countries will increasingly work together to operate in such a way it's important to point this out because a lot of ill-informed commentators have been praising the recent politics of these countries as a sort of pacifist neutrality but that is really not the case Hungary is still a NATO member even though one has to increasingly ask why that is even still the case while Austria and Serbia are really increasingly practicing the type of selfish for-profit neutrality that Switzer excellent practice during the second world war but I believe one of the most important changes regarding neutrality in Europe is through what we all lose with the end of Swedish and Finnish neutrality that is because Sweden and Finland practice the sort of active neutrality finland's role in negotiating the cold water taunt creating the osce and acting as the main Force for negotiating peace and relieving tensions in Europe especially under the leadership of its former president uro kekonen is not something to scoff at or dismiss even though many just Overlook it Finland played a big and outsized role for peace in the Diplomatic history of Europe throughout the 20th century Finland was the European leader in creating a framework for lasting peace and stability in Europe a position it took and successfully exercised due to its neutrality at The Finnish people can legitimately be proud of this over the course of just a year Decades of hard diplomatic work by Finland Island to ensure peace in Europe have been trampled upon by Russia to those who know European diplomatic history watching the events of the last year must be very disheartening but let us also not forget about Sweden because the swedes are like nobody else engaged in the foreign policy of active neutrality from sending peacekeepers to the conga to protect Congolese Villages from French mercenaries hired by Belgian mining companies to being the leading European voice in opposition to South African apartheid and supporting Algerian independence from France the leading European voice against the human rights violations by the Pinochet regime the leading European voice in opposition to the Vietnam War the leading European critic of racial segregation in the United States the leading European voice arguing for Kurdish autonomy and rights of self-determination to being the voice for Palestinian statehood and self-determination in Europe now you may think of all these causes whatever you want it doesn't change the fact that Sweden did Champion an important role in Europe and to an extent even The Wider West Sweden basically used its neutrality while also being a country economically and politically integrated in the west to actively go out into International politics to argue a case in favor of those disenfranchised overlooked or unjustly maligned or attacked by the West Sweden used its neutrality to claim the role of being the West's moral conscience especially under their prime minister Olaf Palmer something the swedes can be very proud of and that is over now with Swedish neutrality ending Sweden is bound to give up on its active neutrality I got a bit of a backlash a few months ago when I tweeted that I was still somewhat sad that Europe will now be bereaved of the benefits of the active neutrality that Finland and Sweden engaged in and maybe you now understand why I have that sentiment those torches of active neutrality that both Sweden and Finland held will now be dropped and I have to ask who will pick them up I recently I made this video is not just to hop on an inevitable trend of uploads being promoted in the algorithm with the NATO membership of Finland I made this video because I have several thousand subscribers from Switzerland and Ireland and I would like to appeal with this video in particular to you I doubt that Austria or Serbia will pick up the Torches dropped by Sweden and Finland they seem on a course to establish a passive neutrality that is mainly self-centered and there is no political will in both of these countries to engage in an act of neutrality so my eyes and hopes right now are in Switzerland and in particular in Ireland I would encourage any Swiss and Iris viewers to think about this to consider having a conversation about this if possible with your fellow citizens on what you imagine your country's neutrality should be and to talk about what you believe your country's role in in Europe should be acting as Europe's moral Consciousness as the swedes once used to do may be befitting as a new role for Ireland in Europe and maybe even The Wider West being Europe's Chief negotiator and guarantor for peace and stability in Europe may be a befitting new role for the Swiss it may be time for you to go pursue a more active neutrality or at the very least consider it and discuss it

Channel: Kraut

Views: 894,175

Keywords: Kraut, Countryball, Polandball, Documentary, History, Political science, Sociology, Economics, Neutral, Neutrality, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Serbia, Nato, Ireland, Irish, Defense, Industry, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, WW2, Czechoslovakia, Czechia, Slovakia, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Holland, Turkey, Concert of Europe, Ground News, army, conscription, cold war, Yugoslavia, Tito, Singapore, Mexico, mafia, Italy, banking, Swiss, banking secret

Id: Iqe6VVdK4c8

Length: 30min 23sec (1823 seconds)

Published: Thu May 11 2023