Market Cafe | Look At Your Own Savings, Then Put Money In The Market: Vijay Kedia | N18V | CNBC TV18

I had bought for example Tas Network during the covid stock price fell from 400 to 500 rupes to 40 rupees during covid and Company had a loss of 100 CR rupees in a year or so the stock market price of Tes networks right now as we have this conversations 862 bull market creates stupid investors and stupid investors create bare market and bare Market creates smart investors smart investors and smart investors create bull market bull markets oh that is the cycle that is the cycle I am trying to catch a fish in the ocean not crocodile in the pond because if you today you are a small fish you can transform yourself and you have entire to cover up so this is what I'm looking for in a company when everybody's dancing you should also dance but don't get drunk hello and welcome to the 10th episode of Market Cafe we are back after the yearend holiday with more coffee and more conversations on markets investing life and much more I'm your host sui upadhi well the guest who's going to join me on the show today actually needs no int production he is a veteran investor who has been in this market for over three decades he started when he was really young when he was just 19 now you would have heard him before as well but today I want to make him sit down and tell us his secret Source the magic Mantra that powers his investment psyche I want to find out how vij kadia picks his multi-baggers so let's [Music] go well uh vij G it is so good to see you here thank you for taking out the time I know it's a bit of a drive to come out of you know office and Studio but that's the whole point it is Market Cafe that's the name of this show so we'll talk markets conversations that's the idea so thank you so much for coming thank you for inviting me in your program and I must say this is the first time I'm meeting you in 2024 to to it's not too late I think I can still wish you a happy new New Year happy srant and Loi and happy New Year so many things yeah so you tell us uh how has the year started off for you K 24 as this is so far so good you know Market is at new Peak index is at new high today also new high yeah yeah I remember one song you know you great that you bring this up and that's what sometimes people will wonder we had this consolidation right what consol a basically 2 weeks we were in a range and then an alltime high happened so is this you know the pace is that worrying you at all first of all I will tell you this is what I have noticed in in every bull market in a bull market and this kind of bull market red hot bull market thank you reaction does not last more than two days reaction correction correction that is a reaction whatever you call it yeah correction it doesn't last more than 2 days yeah you know and sometime in half day correction is over exactly sometimes so so this is this is the sign of a red hot bull market so as you are asking me now your second question is whether it's worrying me or not I'm not worrying because I have done I have worried a lot in my life so now nothing worries me it's it is also a part and parcel of uh of a bull market yeah obviously it is not going to be like this forever one day it is going to correct one day it is going to crash so that is a Parton Parcel of a bu Market or life so that is okay absolutely absolutely so you know and that is why we want to get you here because a lot of people follow you hear you and you have spent you know long hard over three decades in the market right probably more I don't know you started when you were still a teenager that's when you had your first brush with stocks at 19 is when when you started so many years in the market what do you think is the biggest teaching or learning that the market has taught you so I will tell you there are two part of your question one part is like I have written a few months back that bull market creat need stupid investors and St pardon me for this because I'm not saying stupid to people no I I get it just a just a poem just a r bull market creates stupid investors and stupid investors create bare market and bare Market creates smart investors smart investors and smart investors create bull market bull markets oh that is the cycle that is the cycle the cycle of life in the market in the market so this is what it happens every time in every bull market this cycle is repeating now coming to your second point that it is matter of what was the second point so my I want to start by asking you for yourself what is the biggest learning Market in all the years that you spent here right from you know the trading days uh in in in the teens whatever I have understood little bit about this Market is this that you know everybody genius in a bull market okay so bull market is like like like spring so you have you are not contributing uh anything into this there's momentum it's a momentum it's a law of nature right so it is happening so don't get too much excited and don't take too much of credit for yourself that I have done this I have done this don't start thinking you are Warren Buffett or vij kadia no no not Vijay Kia is nothing you know but don't try to feel that you are invincible or you have learned the trick of investing and now you're are a successful Trader or successful investor I always feel that if you think that you are making money in this kind of bull market because of your skill that that means you haven't seen a bare Market you know so be polite be humble humble be humble Market is giving you this opportunity yeah as I said that everybody genius in a bull market so you can claim that you are a genius but you are you could be a genius sometime but you could be an ass also sometime donkey sometime so don't take credit now the flow is there spring is there and spring all kinds of uh flowers uh you know Bloom so just take advantage of it and think about what is going to happen day after tomorrow not today because ultimately this Euphoria is not going to last forever as I said it is going to die down the So when you say it is going to die down is that because you see some risk on the horizon or you saying generally markets are cyclical yeah it's like Shadow it's like or day and night and and life and death it's a cycle it has to happen like this but I was just looking at the Friday you know previous you know numbers previous trading days numbers so now we're in a market where 2,000 3,000 crores is coming daily from domestic institutions this whole mutual fund so that is the only difference I think in this cycle that there's so much retail money that's it happens every time you are talking about what 23,000 CR in a market cap what three3 3.5 trillion I don't know whatever is the market cap as on today so in trillion we are talking about 2,000 5,000 10,000 CR 6 16,000 CR fund is is collecting every month what is 16,000 you tell me 16,000 is just2 billion in a market cap of $3.5 trillion or4 trillion you are collecting $2 billion and you are you know Big Bang what you are talking this is I don't think that is any any any difference this time also okay Calculate 10 years back what was our Market Camp what kind of money used to come into the market so ratio wise we will find it is could be lesser than that so basically you're saying that it will be digested by the market that's not a there enough is a drop in the ocean stock market a total stock market kind of the market size the money what the kind of money it's coming it's just a drop in the ocean a time will come so far this CP is concerned maybe I had said somewhere that 16,000 on your channel I say 16,000 per day so maybe if not 16,000 per day 16,000 000 per week is very much visible in next maybe in two years in the in the near future no I I I couldn't I couldn't agree more absolutely because people have just started tasting what you know equities can beginning of just the beginning of this trend because like you're saying money will keep coming in uh the question on valuations so we speak to experts you know throughout the day and the the common discussion 19 times is standard P or 20 times is you know the normal for India 21 P it's Market is getting overvalued how do you look at these debates about overvaluation because if money will keep coming and chasing that multiple will go up so how how should investors deal with this concept of no I don't so far my own theories concern my own principles and know my my own stocks are concerned I don't compare them with the market I don't compare them with the market P if you are talking about the market P then maybe P of nifty is only 20 if I not wrong but there are some stocks which are quoting at 60 70 80 100 120 and there are still some shares which are actually available at uh single digit P so this when you're talking about Market we are talking about on on an average so I look at I look at the market from my uh personal investment point of view so I don't find that I own any shares which is quoting at a 60 70 or 80 Cy and all so I'm comfortable of course there must be some exuberance because excitement that is the difference between a fish market and a stock market you know price differs every you go in the morning you have a different price you go after one hour price is different so this is the nature of stock market so that is why I said that don't think about today in in investing I have learned one thing s that one thing is very important don't if you are a long-term investor don't think about today sure don't think about tomorrow also think about next week or next month or for this next year forget about all this live for today tomorrow never never comes tomorrow does come you never know next month does come you don't know whether are going to live or not so I'm not worried about all this keep your eye on the on the long term got that longm yeah so and that is where especially in a market like this picking the right stocks becomes all the more important it's always important but even more when you're going to put money in at 22,000 Market even stocks run up or you know capital goods and defense stocks and things have already run up then I think the Art and Science of stock picking becomes even more difficult and you know you need to focus and that's why we have you here today to give us a bit of a crash course or a mini lesson because you have been doing that so successfully in your portfolio in many many stocks right uh we always hear you talk about it and we discussed in our earlier shows at loto we discussed you know Punjab tractors of story is very well known today I want to ask you stocks multibagger select which go on to become multibagger how do you start what is it that you pick do you back up management or do you look at an industry case industry grow stock Pi or the business how does vij Kia pick multi Baggers no it's very simple for me since I have been practicing this since ages okay for more than two three decades so that is why I I can say that it's easy but of course investing is not easy although it is simple but not easy because we only make uh the all all everything complex so as you know that I'm applying that smile formula that everybody knows so we are not going to discuss that besides thing I have some but please give the the full form maybe there are new viewers who've joined in maybe who who haven't heard much about the smile philosophy that's his philosophy of investment yeah to smile as stands for a small in size medium in experience large in aspiration and extra large Market potential so this is what I am following so I am trying to catch a fish in the ocean not a crocodile in the pond because if you today you are a small fish you can transform yourself and you have en to cover up so this is what I'm looking for in a company but my another philosophy is very simple uh that I am I am just tracking uh uh you can say that an athlete okay which has set a record in the past and if that athlete Falls sick I just keep it on my radar I keep that Athlete on my radar okay you know like a company which has done some which has created some milestone in the past okay whenever the last economy was whenever last the boom cycle was boomle was there that time they had done some things they have created some Milestone okay and now they have fallen sick so I am waiting for that athlete to recover recover and then start running again it's a past Glory or better than that only thing is that that stamina should be uh should be there still left in the in that athlete so so give us some examples from the portfolio if you can of you know the one OD stock where you might have adopted this approach so there are many stocks and I think that that is the backbone of my investing like I applied the same formula and again we are talking about stock so I'm not a CV registered consultant I don't pay any services I don't offer any services I don't charge anything nor I am a consultant nor a broker so we are just discussing just to understand the thought process the thought process so like I had bought for example Tas Network during the covid okay okay so it's a company it it was it was once before covid the stock price was 400 rupees and it was was turned at the only company in India in Telecom equipment networking equipment not in services in equipment so it was termed as the maybe Huawei of uh you know China potential Hua of India But ultimately stock price did not do well and Company did not do well and the stock price fell from 400 to 500 Rupees to 40 rupes during covid and Company had a loss of 100 CR rupees in in a year or so so it was an athlete which has created a track record you know and but Fallen sick and came down to 40 rupees during covid of course Co also helped it to come down to this level absolutely it compounded the crash yeah so that is all right but the company was available at a throwaway price and that time I found that all these Telecom Telecom Services Company because they are giant like Gio was there and uh of course a and vone two and half companies as they they call there so those those company were still surviving and other all 10 or 15 company had ven you know so now these companies the Telecom company had started uh doing capex and all and for uh and otherwise they had a very bad patch between 2012 and 2019 or so or 18 and 19 or so they did not you know expand and did not do any capex and all so I realized that this is the only company in India which into all this network equipment and the future of Telecom services company which are the customers has started Reviving so to me it was no brainer at that uh point of time and the kind of the money the company were uh company was losing actually they had cash in the in the books uhuh so I bought that that Tes and luckily it helped me I am just checking the stock market price of Tes networks right now as we have these conversations 862 you bought close to 40 862 now that is the way a multibagger is so so that's one uh one way please please so uh that is obviously one way we we understood that lesson that you you know pick well performing companies good growth companies in a downturn when things are not going in their favor but if they have the stamina as you said they will indeed bounce back so any other thing I mean any other tip you'd like to share with us in terms of picking a stock now I will give you one example uh when we sit in the plane the aerostat tells you so what I feel that you can sense what is going to happen in India you can sense which story is going to play out you can see where is the next opportunity I realized this maybe one and a half years back Airport it's an to fly now yeah to forget about all this one thing I have realized that when luxury become necessity that is the story to watch that is going to become the next story you know when luxury becomes necessity so now coming to this thing so one and a half years when I started looking at all these things around and then I bought an airline company again it's not a recommendation just for reference purpose just for example I bought Indigo like I bought and this I said on TV also on the buzzer last buzzer Day in February 2023 before the January February 23 so just looking at this thing forget about I did not see any Roc because usually they say airlines are the worst business and they never make money right this is like worldly wisdom of the markets of course even Mr Warren Buffett also says that so maybe he's right but things change you know remember he was saying that my technology Apple something happened was one of the best now I think 30 40% of his portfolio uh is Apple only so things change and he has also said that principles are outdated he has also said the same thing so I think this Airlines thing is going to play out for next 10 15 20 years I may go wrong and I may sell myell tomorrow also please remember this absolutely AB know you're putting all the caveats but I'm just trying to for the benefit of the for for the fellow investors trying to share my thought that how do I judge a story how do I that so this is how I feel this idea should be you know you should think of ideas think of ideas yeah look around and you will find a lot of ideas lots and lots of thoughts lots of ideas over there which now brings me back to today now we've done the theory part of it how should one approach this and apply this you know the philosophy that you just taught us how do we apply that in today's context because when you get a thousand Point Fall it becomes very easy you know which stocks you want to buy and even if they've run up a lot is it I mean and tell us if you think that let's say defense capex psus are you still convinced that they can run higher that's a question that I think all of our viewers keep asking us that please ask the experts how to even do it because that big fall is not coming where people would rush in and quickly you know have their shopping list ready no the fall does not come when you anticipate you know it will catch you when you are sleeping Ah that's true okay so it does not happen it doesn't give any signal so the best philosophy or the best theory what I have understood in this that I'm not investing in this market until until unless I get some story which is which which fits into my my own philosophy that could be faulty that could be wrong or right that is okay there's a Code of mind when everybody's dancing no yeah when everybody's dancing you should also dance but don't get drunk ah yeah that's a good one yeah when there is a party and everybody's drinking and dancing you should also drink or dance coffee or wine or whatever don't get drunk don't get drunk I'm not getting drunk okay I my senses are intact and I'm just watching the market and I'm enjoying the flow because maybe already invested yeah I'm fully invested so maybe my stock will also become has maybe some of the pockets some of the stock must have become overbought so they will correct when Market will correct they will also correct so I don't want to change my my thing stay calm what about this whole PSU rally nobody could have thought I think if I had asked in 2021 to any of our experts saying you know PSU stocks nine out of 10 experts would have said that no government has no business to be in business PSU stocks and for good reason because you know that's how that cycle played out what what do you think about this now and what would you advise people to do in this PS that's what I'm saying about like Airlines now people have a different opinion when things started playing out no then they Chang their opinion so ultimately these psus and all this defense and all this this they are going to remain there and that boom is going to remain there for next 10 20 years should be okay of course I feel that stock are expensive but let me tell you I thought this three months back also the stocks are expensive but last you know last 10 miles they can double or triple or whatever it can happen so don't think about expensive or not expensive you won't get answer to this if you feel that you are not comfortable with this kind of valtion you should sell your stock and buy something else you know and regret as I always say that stock market is a place to regret you buy shares you sell early you regret you buy sale you don't sell stock price comes down you regret you buy shares you don't buy and stock price goes up you regret so that regret is a lifestyle disease uh of uh investing you have to live with this enjoy this you but you feel that this pocket is expensive now so you wouldn't put money here is that right yes I wouldn't put my money so maybe I'm wrong it's okay doesn't matter as it is I'm not keeping my money below the pillow okay it is invested somewhere else that's my question what is capturing your imagination now in terms of something that you finding interesting Trends something that again looking at the Future No as I said that I'm invested in you know my portfolio is very much Diversified based on Indian economy Indian consumption and domestic Theory and all so I'm still invested so holding is also an investment yeah not every time where would I get money to invest every time people call me why do you want to open a p shop do you want to have 200 kinds of stock concentrate on 20 stocks 15 stocks that is enough for you so where do you get money every time I don't get money every time so I am fully invested I'm enjoying the ride in activi also an activities will be every time you don't have to be active in a market there are time where sometimes you have to be active sometime you have to be selective and sometimes in the market you have to be inactive okay or very selective inactive and very selective so as I said that I'm enjoying the ride no I'm enjoying this journey why should I invest every time in this market no absolutely uh also let's talk about exits right uh either someone exits because they need the money or or of course you have to exit when you realize you've made a mistake but otherwise if the going is good and you're riding the the wave like you're riding right now when do you decide that a now now let's book out no when I file uh when I feel that a story has been played out okay or maybe the growth the kind of growth the company has shown in the past will cannot be repeated in the future okay if I I may go wrong also into this but that is time okay my stomach is full I will sell I will keep my plate and I will go away let you you make money now I would be very happy if I sell some shares and you buy that shares and you make money that story was identified by me and I made money and you are also making money what could be the joy Beyond this tell me so that is okay so I exit when I find the story has been played out now growth is restricted company would not grow beyond that certain point lot of competitions are also coming into this and stock is very expensive you know I bought some shares suppose if I buy some shares at a p of five six seven or eight and now it is quoting at 40 45 or maybe 50 and all so maybe I can sell my shares and and regret but happily regret lovely lovely so then coming to the here and now as you said about today's Market you've already told us that party is on music is on so dance drink but don't get drunk right medium to long-term if you were to look at this market and this economy uh which are the must have themes or areas in anybody's portfolio one you mentioned Aviation is something you are very you know you know strongly believing in what else so many things S as I said that suppose if you are going to become uh say 30 trillion doll economy or 35 trillion economy next 20 years am whatever it is there won't be a one side you know growth it has to be exponential you know it has to be driven by the consumerism as we read and we read and as we know that we have like when the economy crosses 2,500 per capita income and all 2,200 2500 consumerism boom you know in every country so now India is in the at an inflection point so I think everything should Prosper like I will tell you that I have some shares in tourism I have domestic tourism not Indigo and all some other uh like hotels like holidays Mahindra holidays I have again it's not a recommendation so that is like in hotel that's a proxy to hotels and hospitality industry and all I have stocks in what you call infrastructure in uh tele Communications so everything will prosper I think yeah everything should do well you should have just faith in Indian economy and the market speaking of amital you were telling me just as we were walking in for the show that you've written something on on amital right would you want to share that with us yes so I've written a four line short po I'm going tode ah w w beautiful lots of optimism and yes we we sense that right when we travel around we go around the aspirations have grown you you go and try and get you know holiday bookings anywhere or flights you look at the malls so the hustle and bustle is real now another very important question in such a high growth space where markets are booming economy is booming and everybody thinks they're a genius uh how to keep yourself humble and grounded like you told us it's important to remain humble uh how do you look at for personally for yourself how do you ensure that you remain grounded what do you do outside the market which kind of completes you no first of all tell you let me tell you that how do I keep myself calm or humble or whatever because there is a quote of mind that your D statement belongs to the market your bank statement belongs to you okay right your investment belongs to the market your profit only belongs to you so whatever people are talking about my portfolio that does not belong to me Baba oh until unless I have I have sold the shares and withdrew the money from the market I can't say that it's my money it's invested it's a stock market it is not YouRock so this is what that keeps me grounded one thing I realized that whatever uh whatever I have done in the market from your point of view has not I have not done it it has happened Market rewarded me as we coming to the final thoughts here uh your advice to a lot of youngsters and I keep getting calls and messages saying you tracking stock markets you're talking to experts we seeing what's happening right right we're seeing the surge in options volumes Etc uh what is the advice you want to give to people because you've done it in your earlier years yourself you've done you know options trading derivatives all of that uh what what do you say on this trend and what is the advice you'd want to give to people I'll tell you the name itself is future optional future and option you have an option option maybe maybe not do or die you know and SE also says that 90% people lose money in nobody's listening to Seb they nobody because everybody wants to come into that category of 1% or 10% made money okay and it's not 10% I think hardly 1% people make money to if you calculate you know so there is a quote of Mind s usually what happens why do all these youngsters and new investors come into the market and they want to make money uh in future an option because so many people ask me by where should I bring my initial capital from if I will not uh do trading and all where would I may bring my initial Capital so I tell them that there are two ways you can you can create initial capital for investment into this Market one is by doing fos future and options and chances of winning is 1% 99% chances are there little bit Capital whichever you put as a margin in the future and option will also be wiped out so this is one way second one is whatever expenses you have daily expenses monthly expenses you have you can curtail your expenses for three start creating that initial Corpus to invest yes save that money from your own expenses don't go to fancy hotel and don't go for all fancy branding things and all because you're still young so save that money from that and create a capital invest in the market chances are that 90% chances are that you will be successful yeah yeah yeah that's at least you won't 100% chances are that you won't fail that is at least true that is true so that is the simplest way but nobody wants to make it simple people want a complex Theory V it has been a pleasure speaking with you you have given us lots of Pearls of Wisdom and advice you know keep it simple look at your own savings and then put the money in the market dance when the party is on but don't get drunk some great thoughts and great ideas it's been an absolute pleasure listening into to you thank you so much for joining us and I wish that this year continues to be a wonderful year for you healthwise wealthwise in every possible way thank you ma'am thank you very much thank you for inviting you so much thank you that's it on this episode of Market Cafe see you again soon with one more conversation thank you for watching cnvc TV8 and do follow us on all our social media platforms for news updates and [Music] more

Channel: CNBC-TV18

Views: 467,077

Keywords: the art of picking multi-bagger stocks, vijay kedia's investment strategy, vijay kedia's top stock bets, vijay kedia's top sectoral bets, vijay kedia's top stock & sectoral picks, vijay kedia on stocks giving multi-bagger returns, vijay kedia's investment mantra, vijay kedia on investing in psu stocks, vijay kedia's market outlook, vijay kedia's outlook for indian market, vijay kedia's d-street outlook, CNBC TV18 latest news updates, CNBC TV18 latest updates, CNBC TV18 updates

Id: XlG7hyooXOc

Length: 30min 55sec (1855 seconds)

Published: Sat Jan 20 2024