under the Marcos junor Administration tensions into the South China Sea are reaching a boiling point compared to previous years 2023 to include the first quarter of 2024 is a marked escalation meanwhile the Philippines draws closer to its oldest Ally any attack on Philippine public vessel or Philippine Metropolitan territory would be considered an act on the United States what is behind the rise in hostilities perhaps president Marcos might be of the view that China promises a lot but then maybe delivers not up to what it has promised from beijing's point of view it's Marcos who is trying to make an issue out of this and are China and the Philippines headed towards armed conflict we cannot totally take out the possibility of possible conflict possible accident that could you know disturb the the status quo in the South China [Music] Sea you're sailing within the Philippine exclusive econ omic Zone what is your intention over March 5th 2024 the Filipino resupply boat unisa May 4 was headed to the second Thomas Shore it is a submerged Reef in a disputed part of the South China Sea part of which is called the West Philippine Sea by the Filipinos on Route it found Itself blockaded by Chinese Coast Guards and Maritime militia after a 2-hour standoff the wooden vessel was barraged by water cannons from the Chinese crafts 2 weeks later on another resupply mission un May 4 was again blasted by water cannons well for the March 5 incident we can um do something that the Chinese Coast Guard has been usually doing uh making use of their CH uh water cannon to prevent the the supply boats from for reaching um the BRP sheram Madre and completing the resupply mission but the March 23 incident is completely different with the previous water cannon incident because this time they never hesitated to use jet stream water cannon and they never also hesitated to use that kind of level of aggression to destroy or damage and um endanger the sea wordiness of the supply boat in both cases the uniza may4 was forced to turn back marking the first time a resupplied vessel failed to reach the BRP Sierra Madre the BRP Sierra Madre was a ship that the phili deliberately grounded on the sholl in 1999 to Mark its territorial claim to The Reef a rotating handful of Filipino troops have been stationed at the maroon wreck since it is an outpost of the Philippine Navy it is a commission vessel if we came in in our stand with BRP sh Madre it would be easier for China to force away on the other features that we have the West Philippine Sea second Thomas Shaw which the Philippines calls augen Shaw is part of the Spradley island chain is located 200 km west of Palawan within the Philippines exclusive economic zone according to the United Nations convention on the law of the sea or unclos a country's e extends 200 nautical miles Beyond its Coast Beijing claims over 90% of the South China Sea demarcated by the n-h line based on the 1951 map which cuts into the Philippines e after China seiz control of Scaro Shaw another disputed atall in 2012 second Thomas Shaw has been the center of contention between China and the Philippines to the ch chines the Filipinos were the ones who violated anlos with the grounding of the Sierra Madre ramming an Old World War II battleship onto a disputed area that goes against everything in international long uh originally they said that it was an accident and the boat just uh grounded there and they're going to remove it uh now that has changed to uh we want to repair it and uh take care of it they've been sending building materials to the boat because it's an extremely old boat and I'm sure the living conditions on it aren't terrific they believe that each time may4 goes to a sh that boat is carrying construction materials but I would say it would take more than Ona May 4 to bring in construction materials we rotate the troops we provide them supplies we are responsible for the upkeep the maintenance the safety and the comfort of BRP Sher Madre not the construction since August last year the saber rattling has become cacophonous the Philippines Coast Guard recorded at least seven incidences of water cannoning and collisions with the Chinese by contrast before the latest run of tensions the last major incident involving physical contact was in November 2021 the Chinese blamed the Philippines for the brinkmanship at sea they believe that if we're going to be successful in reinforcing the structure of BRP sh and it will already be almost impossible for them to to remove us in a Yin sha thereby if it would force them to remove BRP sheram it would also uh trigger the mutual defense treaty since this is an commissioned Naval vessel under the 1951 Mutual defense treaty between the US and Philippines the two countries are obliged to assist each other in the face of an attack Mutual defense treaty applies to Armed attacks on our Armed Forces Coast Guard vessels public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific including anywhere in the South China Sea so make no mistake Mr President we will always have your back in the South China Sea or elsewhere in the region how did tensions escalate so quickly between China and the Philippines especially since the previous president Rodrigo duerte had tried to find reproach men with China then newly in power he downplayed a 2016 ruling by the permanent Court of arbitration which ruled China's n- line claim over the disputed Waters invalid duterte also suspended joint military exercises with the US that was the the legitimacy claim of the dity administration that we cannot simply provoke and anger China because it's it's a neighbor it's a superpower and it can really sabotage Philippine economy China is key to Philippine development to Philippine economic growth his successor president fera Marcos Jr however would take a different tact the tension has been building up especially after we have a dramatic change in Philippine policy towards China under President ferdin bong bong Marcos who basically affected a major transition of Philippine policy from during the time of President duterte cized basically by appeasing China to a current policy of course of confronting or balancing China's expansive claim in the South China CA Marcus's own personal calculation in that of his government is that at the moment China is uh the one challenge uh strategically uh in Philippine national security but to say that Marcos has an anti-china policy is completely false uh Marcos does not have a very critical or a very negative view of China it simply wants China to behave in accordance to peace and stability and to somehow respect the arbitral ruling International maritime law and to treat and respect the Philippines as a neighbor at first president Marcos appeared to follow his predecessor strategy to court China Beijing was one of his first ports of call as president yet soon after his visit news of altercations in the South China Sea received wide attention in the media in what has been called a transparency strategy the main objective of the transparency strategy is to um educate the Filipino people for them to be aware of what's really happening in the west philippin sea you have to understand that President B Marcos has inherited a country that uh were made to believe that the Chinese government is a friendly nation that there's no aggression that uh things are already at peace in the west Philippine Sea so for him to be able to once again get the support of the Filipino people he has to give something to the public for them to at least give a a bird's eye view of what's really happening and this was the first objective the second objective of the transparency strategy is to Rally support for the International Community from beijing's point of view it's Marcos who is trying to make an issue out of this I mean it's cannot be a coincidence that there are so many media from all over the world on the boat uh when they were trying to you know push these uh Building Materials in and the Chinese responded by using water cannon um that's obviously a PR play part of this domestic politics uh does um you know good for leaders to look like they're being strong as tensions simmer the Philippines has committed to maintain the BRP Siam Madre and respond to what it calls Chinese aggression each resupply Mission carries more dangers and risks definitely all of our coir Personnel are aware of the risk that they are doing but if you're going to ask me the level of morale of the sailors of the Armed Forces the Philippines and the Philippine Coast Guard I think we still have this high level of commitment to maintain our presence in the west philippin sea and in these Troubled Waters one island is caught in the [Music] crosshairs for a few weeks this year a small group of islands sitting at the intersection of the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean was AB Buzz with a flurry of activity [Music] this is the town of Basco the capital of batanes a small group of islands in the northernmost reaches of the Philippines this archipelago is just 1/3 the size of Metro Manila with a population of 18,000 and this year it was chosen as one of the sites for a joint military exercise between the US and the Philippines the annual joint military exercise is also known as balikatan a Filipino term for shoulder to shoulder this year's drills involved 16,700 troops from the US Philippines Australia and for the first time France I think the biggest change is that uh the balikatan exercises has now included more like-minded States than before so of course it started with just the US and the Philippines that then expanded to the other us allies of the United States as far as the Philippines is concerned this is simply to better enhance our the ability of the Philippine military to perform its constitutional duty of external defense since balikatan launched in 1991 this year's exercise was the largest in [Music] scope and even though it is the fourth time Banas hosted the exercise the scale of this year's operation surpris some locals May the choice of batan is strategic the island chain is only 140 km away from Taiwan batana sits next to the Bashi Channel which connects the Western Pacific to the South China Sea it is a strategic passage for China to cross to the east of Taiwan in the event of an invasion making Banas a possible Landing [Music] point this year one of the islands of Banas was used to simulate an island recapture China had previously warned the Philippines about wading into the Taiwan issue us Philippine ties had been icy during the duterte administration but relations began to thaw in the final year of his term the relationship continued to strengthen with his successor under the enhanced defense coop operation agreement the US military can operate from five bases in the Philippines last year president maros Jr expanded this signing an agreement to allow access to four additional bases three of these line up north close to Taiwan while one faces West towards the South China Sea the expansion was viewed unfavorably by Beijing the US instead of trying to figure out a way in which this can be resolved amicably keeps trying to egg on uh Nations proxies to take on China on the theory that we can play the underdog card we'll say oh poor Philippines is being bullied by China now you know this is the same thing that they're trying with Taiwan that it's always this a big nation trying to take on little Nations well the irony there is it's the United States who's been the largest bully in the world China is not the one who's been starting Wars it's not China who's torn up agreements it's not China who has put unilateral sanctions on other countries friend and foe alike it is not China whose policies change every four to eight years depending on who is sitting in the White House the claim of China and others is that the Philippines simply gave in to whatever the US demanded but to Simply say that the Philippines merely complied with what the United States is totally false because the Taiwan contingency as an issue as a possible Regional flasho greatly affects Philippine interest one the Philippines is the nearest in terms of geography the nearest country to Taiwan in Southeast Asia and second there are more than 220,000 Filipinos living and working in Taiwan and to have the ability to repatriate them in the worst case scenario is to also ensure that uh the logistics of it will be readily available because if not then you're talking about the failure of the Philippine government under Marcos to implement a core pillar of Philippine foreign policy which is the protection of its citizens overseas [Music] um via batanes Route so what do the Filipinos think about all this increased military activity according to a survey by OCTA research about 54% of Filipinos favor the expansion of us Philippine military ties 11% are opposed while 32% are undecided Court in the line of fire the residents on batanes have similar mixed feelings about being drawn into superpower rivalries we are very much uh happy to welcome them and to conduct such balikatan here in batanes or other related military activities that will enhance or that will protect and secure our uh little Province at the same time our country peacefulness prepared trainings and Dr since this is a national security concern whatever their feelings the residents on batanes have their own contingency planed 34-year-old reservist JMA Del kab bansai was one of the 119 volunteers to joined the Philippine Navy's reservice forces in March his recruitment comes out of the Philippines Department of National Defense called for more military presence in batanes early this year at first because we are not totally a military personnel we are a volunteer serve but as a citizen of this province we are aware that the the need of the support of our men in uniform Personnel here in batan We join here the reservice to be their uh s if ever there will be attention or [Music] Invasion yet any military escalation could come at a cost to Manila for now China Remains the Philippines largest trading partner is the Philippines looking to reduce its economic dependence on China it is harvest season here in Kalinga a landlocked province in Northern Lon here farmers are reaping the benefits of the chico River irrigation pump which began operation a year ago it brings water from the chico River to agricultural land in Kalinga and Kagan [Music] pain R the pump irrigates 8,700 hectares of land and ensures ample stable water supply to over 4,000 farmers in the [Music] area this pump is funded by Chinese money 85% of the 87 million project was loaned from the export import Bank of China as an official development assistance it falls under former president Rodrigo duterte's build build build program which launched one year into his term it's an infrastructure drive by the the administration to uh enhance and invest more in public works infrastructure in in the Philippines and during his time that was synergized with uh China's built and Road initiative One goal of the BBB program was to reduce poverty belt and Road initiative projects were expected to create jobs for 21,000 Filipinos progress however has been slow of the 16 major infrastructure projects funded by China only four including the pump has been completed there are several reasons why some projects have been delayed some projects did not undergo proper or adequate visibility studies another is um you know right of way issues um this is very uh uh especially in in infrastructure because you know it requires a lot of consultations with uh affected residents or stakeholders so there's a lot of legal issues when it comes to to those thing last year the Philippines withdrew from three projects negotiations were stalled due to beijing's long-term policy and high interest rates Manila is instead looking at funding offers from Japan South Korea and India a sign that the maros administration is reducing its economic Reliance on China Additionally the Filipinos have doubts over beijing's investment pledges which have been made to president duterte during the time of President duterte the number of registered Chinese firms in the Philippines increased Investments also did increase the problem is that the Chinese were not able to live up to the expectation of actualizing all the uh$ 24 billion of uh Investments I think uh perhaps president Marcos might be of the view that China promises a lot but then maybe delivers not up to what it has prom and what we're seeing right now is that uh infrastructure projects have not only lacked but uh the Philippine government the Philippine bureaucracy would rather embark on Partnerships with its usual uh countries like Japan the United States rather than with China and president maros say pivot has met with success for the first time ever the US Japan and the Philippines held a trilateral summit this April in Washington the formation of this trilateral security partnership provides of course dual elements in terms of security Maritime military security and more significantly Economic Security so you will also have efforts by both countries to redirect their economies to each other uh efforts by the Philippines to export its strategic minerals to Japan and the United States uh investment by Japan and the United States to develop the lon Corridor and of course massive infrastructure programs development in the Philippines funded by Tokyo and Washington not by Beijing so in a way we're also showing to our people and to other Assan countries we need not be dependent on one economic power the US appears eager to fill the investment Gap left by the Chinese this March us common secretary Gina rimondo led a trade and investment mission to the Philippines with a delegation of 22 American companies on this trip alone these companies are announcing over a billion dollars of us Investments including creating educational opportunities to over 30 million Filipinos this is a welcome move for Manila after it ranked six in FDI inflows among Southeast Asian countries in a 2023 United Nations World investment report the country's net FDI inflow dropped for the second time last year since 2021 from $12 billion to $9.5 billion in 2022 and $8.8 billion in 2023 for Demarcus Administration it's not only important that the US delivers on the security component of the alliance but more so equally important is on on the economic side of that Alliance so the unprecedented presidential trade mission of the Biden Administration which has never been undertaken to any other country tells you that at the moment the Philippines is also relying on the US for for its economic uh [Music] well-being one sector expected to benefit the semiconductor industry which accounts for 20% of Filipino exports and 12% of its gross domestic product Rondo announced plans to double the number of semiconductor assembly testing packaging factories in the Philippines yet for the moment China remains as the Philippines top trading partner it is the archipelago's second largest export market and biggest import Source decoupling from China will be impossible there's still a lot of products here that the ordinary people get from China so they still uh would want to engage with China because of the the relatively uh cheap cost of uh Chinese products but um should tensions escalate uh China might choose to again tighten the their regulatory standards uh in this regard if Marcos is trying to make an issue with Beijing it's going to be very hard to have any kind of real economic cooperation if uh the relations are defined by this issue about the Philippines trying to make something um to in essence favor Washington or gain Washington's favor uh this is going to make it much more difficult during the short run it's just hard to understand what the end game is uh if one of your largest trading partners is in fact uh someone you want you wish to classify as an enemy and you know who is it benefiting is it benefit fitting uh the Philippines I don't think so the business Community has been alarmed by tensions into South China Sea they have called for peaceful negotiations with China concerned over the loss of trade and investment nobody wins if we go to war so the key here is to establish communication and mutual respect and eventually we will come to agreement I'm sure in spite of our uh difficulties in the west Philippine Sea China is still open to help and to discuss the various things we can do together in the Philippines knowing for the fact that we have many uh overseas Chinese who are currently situ located in the Philippines and there are local Chinese we are born no longer Chinese but born Filipinos China is also the Southeast Asian nation's thirdd largest source of tourists but as relations sour there is a growing sense of paranoia to its Chinese presence in the Philippines last month a group of lawmakers called for an investigation into an influx of 4,600 Chinese Nationals in the Kagan Province citing it as a national security concern the province is located in Northern Luzon where two bases that house US troops under etka lie that issue was taken up by only uh a few politicians maybe they have their own agenda behind many Chinese came to the Philippines because they want to learn English we don't want them to be pinpointing particular race and hitting them just because of the color or because of the race or because of the language or whatever it is we should avoid racism or racist being racist that is where we are coming from so we were against that will Sino Filipino relations continue spiraling downwards a looming energy crisis May reveal the answer 50 km Northwest of Palawan lies the Philippines only source of natural gas the balaya gas field Powers 20% of the country's energy needs its Supply however has been dwindling since [Music] 2019 currently the the field production is able to supply about 1,500 megaw to the gas uh generating companies no eventually if we don't do nothing by 2027 uh it will go down to about 800 megaw so we have to act now so we're doubling efforts in the department for exploration in other areas and here the Philippines is looking to the South China Sea according to the US Energy Information agency these qus could hold approximately 3.6 billion barrels of petroleum and 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas impr proven and probable reserves the Philippines were set to explore oil and gas resources in the South China Sea with China and Vietnam following a 2005 agreement we may lack technical uh capability to undertake this size of operations also we may lack the fin ccial capabilities to undertake uh these operations so in terms of the Philippine government itself undertaking the exploration you know it's it's quite an expensive uh exercise and the risks are very high because if you do not discover a field then there is no way of getting back your money however the agreement was ruled to be unconstitu by the Philippine Supreme Court last year the Philippine Constitution says that it has to have full control and supervision of exploiting um natural resources okay so that means under Philippine law China can only be a subcontractor and of course the Chinese would not agree to that because they claim sovereignty over the waters in in the South China Sea talks with Beijing to strike a new joint exploration deal were initially revived under Marcos Jr but with the current tensions these plans appear dead in the water president Marcos raised against again the issue of joint development to president C Jinping in January 2023 during his visit president SI Jinping did not answer president maros query about a joint joint development at the Reed Bank a few days later an article came out in the global times announcing that China will only agree to a joint development in uh Undisputed territories so this basically defeats the very purpose of joint development you will have joint development in disputed territories because you want to set aside the sovereignity claim well it's simple uh China has both the money and the expertise to do this kind of uh EXP ation and to extract uh the oil and gas that is found uh obviously Philippines uh you know wants to uh get that uh but as a it's very difficult to see it going forward very productively under the current circumstances and it's not that China's defining the relationship and saying if you don't you know do something about this second Thomas scholes we won't do this that or other thing it's quite the other way early this year Manila announced that it will proceed with oil and gas exploration without Beijing this presents another potential area of friction if the Marcus Administration decides to uh go with alone without China in the South China Sea and exploit the resources there um China for sure will will come and uh impede those efforts as they did in the previous years and if China will unilaterally uh drill for oil also um the Philippines also will object to it so it could be a flash point president Marcos Jr had warned that a single mistake or misunderstood move could lead to conflict [Music] and opportunities for miscalculation are plentiful in miday a Filipino civilian Convoy of boats made their way to scabal shore supposedly to resupply Fisherman's station there they were eventually turned back after close encounters with Chinese vessels come June a new Chinese law will allow its coast guards to retain foreigners found trespassing in Chinese claimed Waters the Philippines says this violates international law some in the Philippines are worried the Philippines and China are edging closer to armed conflict the president's own sister Senator em Marcos said the Philippines is taking a dangerous path while a pro ttic Coalition called the citizens Coalition against the war are concerned that the proxy war between the superpowers will be fought on Asian soil the hostility between the US and China uh has created an opportunity for um maros to say oh look I'm being strong I'm protecting our territory and it's not going to uh change anytime soon especially with the US um in essence uh trying to egg Marcos on uh in what seems just you know either purely PR or extremely dangerous situation if accidents start to occur to Simply say that the Marcus J Administration is pro us then uh uh that is a blind interpretation towards the stronger security relationship for example between the Philippines and Australia which had recently become strategic Partners the ongoing in progress towards a reciprocal access agreement with Japan and increasing strategic cooperation with other countries that includes uh EU countries the UK South Korea and India so all of this simply tells us that for the Marcos J Administration uh it will primarily rely on itself on the Philippines to provide its National Defense but it will also depend on on a lot of help and assistance from other countries that wanted the Philippine to be more secure because that is a key to peace and stability in the region yet while the Philippines builds alliances one group has remained relatively quiet its neighbors in asan so David and Goliad narrative really captured so much support from the European countri the G7 countries and even you know other countries really supported the philippin stand unfortunately except our neighboring countries back in 2012 when the Philippines launched a case against China we also got the same criticism uh that uh we should not have taken China to court but other Assan States might not readily admit it but they were quite happy with the verdict as well uh because it somehow um gives Clarity that for example the N Dash line or 10 dash line has no basis in international law meanwhile asan is negotiating a new code of conduct for the South China Sea between its member States and China it is an update to a two decade old agreement meant to manage behaviors and disputes in the Troubled Waters current tensions add a layer of complexity to ongoing talks with China they were really seeking consensus from all the members very difficult uh to see that happening uh given the current tensions that are there asan's polarization and divides has negatively affected the code of conduct process so at the moment uh there is very little optimism and very little positive prospect that the code of conduct could deliver anything because asan is no longer seen the same when the code of conduct negotiation started up to this moment so is conflict inevitable in the South China Sea for now both Beijing and Manila say they want dialogue meanwhile each Day brings more close calls and near misses between vessels in the South China Sea well hopefully we could find a quid proo a situation that we both learn to respect each other's interests and from there of course we could start a negotiation that of course will be fair to both sides I don't think uh you're going to see much change um I'm just hopeful that it doesn't escalate uh it's all about in the end uh some sort of diplomatic uh solution that means that all countries may not be happy but they're not going to be in Conflict so that's generally how you solve things but right now it seems that especially Washington wants to keep this on a low simmer if not boil we cannot totally take out the possibility of possible conflict possible accident that could would you know disturb the the status quo in the South China Sea so as much as it's important for everyone for the Philippines to be sober that should also be advised to both the United States and China that the South China SE is not simply a playground for them that it's not simply a theater to uh settle their superpower rivalry if the shipping lanes um get blocked or obstructed as a result of the conflicts in the South China Sea then that's going to be bad for global trade and the global economy whatever challenges the Philippine Navy or the Philippine government faces in the west Philippine Sea we will not be deterred we will continue performing our mandate which is to secure the Integrity of the national territory to protect our sovereignty and look after the welfare of the Filipino [Music]
