Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Who Has The Edge After Lok Sabha Polls Phase 4? | India Today LIVE

livelihood is directly or indirectly depend on government of the day so they elect and select government and leader very very very carefully the way you select any job or profession for that matter and because of this technology people know if this is the road condition whether good bad or worst who responsible for this whether the municipality the state government or the central government and they based on this performance they take decision it's all about delivery delivery delivery all other issues had very high voter has had a better record among women than male voters are we seeing that getting repeated could that get repeated prep is the woman voter going to be the key in this election it is very simple whoever takes care of me I will go with them okay so therefore you know yogendra yadav that from taking up from what Gupta is saying is effectively suggesting that when you say rashan is an issue many will say it's the woman who's the beneficiary of livelihood issues prad Gupta is coming as close I would say to admitting that that is Mr modi's trump card do you agree or not uh Raj in fact I had said that one of the things that's working for Mr Modi is russan delivery of russan which people appreciate for which they give him credit uh I don't think most people I mean I don't think even 10% voters know that national food Security Act was passed by UPA that they were the Congress was the party to have started it no people simply think Mr Modi started it they give him credit and yes Mr Modi this is something which is working to his Advantage at the same time when we think of livelihood issues unemployment is an issue like never before I agree with pradep G that inflation is something you hear all the time but this kind of empasis on unemployment this is extraordinary the kind of unease and anger about it there is a lot of unease on that I would just add a couple of things Raj uh to this one is to say to my mind uh what is an you know if what Mr Pradip Gupta said was not happening then of course BJP would be nowhere if we had a situation where Mr Modi did not have this Advantage a a certain degree of popularity which he still enjoys B except you know appreciation for Russian uh C this broad image which I find mythical this image of having lifted Count's uh Spirits uh country's reputation and so on if these three things were not working in Mr modi's favor this would be 1977 they would be wiped out of course these things are working and that is why BJP is still clearly number one party in terms of seats so I do not see any party coming close go to becoming number one party of course all these things are working however the real question is do we see a certain subtle change and I invite your viewers your viewers to join it I'm a political worker your viewer might think okay why should we believe him he's he has his political views are known he's against Mr Modi all this is true so may I request your uh viewers to do just two simple things please go around and ask anyone you know whose judgment on politics you trust MH ask them what was the situation 15 days ago 3 weeks ago one month ago and what's the situation today has BJP become stronger or weaker that's a first question just ask stronger or weaker don't ask who is ahead number two even more importantly please step out meet Ordinary People you can do it as well as I can or Raj service I can please please go out meet 10 ordinary people who may have voted BJP 10 ordinary people who may have not voted BJP last time but don't ask them only about who they are voting this time also ask them about when they voted last time if you see that people who had not voted BJP last time are voting for BJP this time then what Mr balah is saying is perfectly right Dr Bala must be right if you find that if you find as I did that those who did not vote for BJP are standing where they were and a small slice of those who voted for BJP is moving away from them then you have to take what I'm saying somewhat more seriously I'm going to press you a little bit more on that in a moment but Dr balah since you see you are relating the state of the economy to voter Trends now we are seeing and I've seen this also traveling across the country I'm just back from Bihar rosar is a big issue when I meet young people in Bihar they said sir rosar number one issue is rosar forget everything else when I meet women they spoke about Russian and I'm just wondering Professor that whether we could be seeing at least among the young among voters under the age of 25 30 who last time voted euphorically for the government a shift now whether that is large enough we're not sure remember in a state like Bihar the NDA had a winning margin of over 20% in many seats so it it has a huge buffer I'm just asking you do you see it possible at all unemployment becoming the kind of issue that yogendra is saying is leading to voters who voted for BJP last time moving away this time look as you know at least I try and emphasize in my book what is the data suggested matter of fact my motto is let the data speak so as far as data is concerned let's let's go back to the very first survey ever done opinion poll ever done and you will find that employment unemployment which is one issue and pricewise which is another issue figures in every survey that you have done that I have done that yug yadav has done and indeed go anywhere in the world and you will find that employment and inflation are the number one and number two issues in every economy in every election so that makes you start to think what is if there in everyone then I can't use the information on employment or inflation as any indicator of what matters to the voter so I go a step further now let's look it absolutely the case that that unemployment and inflation are issues I look at the Delta what is the change that's what is in the voters mind not what was 10 years ago but what was 5 years ago 4 years ago 3 years ago if you look at the unemployment rate in India and I'm talking now about the youth and then I'll get to the aggregate youth 18 to 29 it was 14% 14 1 14 in 2019 when Modi won the election with 303 seats and I just want to remind all viewers that at this very same time actually two months earlier if you look at February March of 2019 what was the ha the hav on news channels including yours was that the BJP will not get more than 200 seats that they will still be the largest party and that Modi will no longer be the PM candidate it'll be somebody else from BJP that was a har now we are seeing a parallel attempt at creation of a Hava mve but we will know on June 4th now coming specifically to the issue of uh unemployment the the unemployment rate as I mentioned before was 14% in 2019 it is today 10% for the Youth for the aggregate entire sample the unemployment rate in India today is the lowest it has been in more than a decade so therefore what is the voter going to look at the voter feels you know when I say I I think yinda mentioned GDP Etc I don't talk about GDP GDP is not what the voter is thinking about it's his or her welfare which includes jobs which includes price rise which includes what benefits you're getting and I would like to see one evidence being cited as to how the situation today in India is worse than it was in 201 19 okay you I I I've got your point you're saying you believe the situation in 2024 is objectively better than it was in 2019 and if a government then wins 303 in 2019 it should therefore logically win more in 2024 but I let's let's come to specific statewise I maintain that India is state byst state battles yogendra yadav when you say that the BJP could fall below 272 which are those states where you believe the BJP at the moment is taking a hit as a result of which these numbers are coming up give me the specific states where you believe that this election has changed from 2019 Raj when the election began I thought there were four Battleground states where BJP could lose up to 10 seats each NDA could lose up to 10 seats each there were Karnataka Maharashtra Bihar and Bengal MH uh after some time I dropped Bengal from the list because the the indications didn't suggest that there was going to be major turnaround and major setback for the BJP uh my friend says otherwise but at the moment I'm sticking to that but I added two more states to that list which is Rajasthan utar Pradesh and now I've added uh so these two states uh so let me now get into specifics Karnataka BJP 125 plus one independent supported by them 26 they are at least down by 10 seats my friends in Karnataka would immediately say not 10 15 at least but I'll stick to minimum minimum 10 seats Maharashtra they had 42 41 + 1 I don't see them Crossing 22 some of people whose judgment I trust most who one month ago told me that NDA was getting 30 seats now are not talking more than 22 that's a straight loss of 10 uh 20 seats come to Rajasthan Rajasthan alone could be 10 seats but I would put Gujarat with it maybe Gujarat would count for a couple of seats I don't expect more than that uh Rajasthan and Gujarat would take away 10 more seats MH Mahar madya Pradesh would see much less so I would say madhya Pradesh chhattisghar and jarand put together would mean another loss of 10 seats come to North harana where my friends say BJP is losing six or seven seats but but I'll be I'll be you know conservative Rajasthan sorry harana Delhi Punjab chandigar utar and uh Himachal Pradesh put all of them together 10 more seats gone there up and biar 15 each I can just give reasons for that and now I feel uh Bengal alone of course would not account for 10 loss of 10 seats but if you put Bengal with Assam with all the northeastern states and the remaining Utes they would account for loss of 10 seats as well that adds up to 100 but BJP would also gain BJP gains at least 10 seat NDA NDA gains at least 10 seats in Andra Pradesh it could be more my judgment is not very good on this my information on Andra currently is fairly limited no personal experience but I would say immediate at least 10 seats to NDA which is a pure which is a gain and in Tamil uh tamilnad Kerala and telengana uh I would imagine BJP is picking at least five more seats put together so that's a loss of gain of 15 so 100 minus 15 add up to 85 that's broadly what I'm saying BJP down by 65 or 70 seats and bjp's allies down by about 15 seats now these are very very broad figures to give a broad idea I don't have an exit pole I don't have that kind of a Precision instrument PR Gupta has and very wisely he's not talking about those numbers but because I don't have any exit poll he's saying he's saying if I stop you numbers may I may I just say one more thing may I say just one more thing Raj just one more thing to what Professor bah said you know I would not enter into a dispute with Professor bah about employment figures I think very good economists have done it and to my mind proven the case to be completely false but let's forget that may I invite Professor Bala for a simple experiment rajdeep and it's here on your channel rajdeep you pick up any three villages in this country any three villages give the list of three villages to Dr Bala ordinary Villages pick it by Lottery give those three villages to Dr Bala and let him pick the one Village he thinks is the best let three of us go there let us simply ask in the village has employment situation improved if the village says that it has improved I would salute Professor Bala on your channel and I will come and offer an apology okay I I just want to ask you though before I go to Dr Bala you heard pradep Gupta saying he expects no major change fair and he went specifically to say he without saying it in so many words in terms of number no major change that for someone like me means he still believes the BJP is in po position as it was at the start of the election do you concede that because there was such a big gap 224 seats yogendra yadav last time the BJP had 50% vote sharing therefore to effect a reversal of the 2004 kind forget about 77 but 2004 kind also is very difficult it requires dare I say a 10 12% swing away I have seen certainly disillusionment on the ground no doubt about it but I didn't see it into convert into anger as I'm traveling so I'm just wondering where are you seeing this 10 12% swing uh r two things uh uh BJP remains in the poll position even if you uh take my numbers you know the broad numbers I've indicated if BJP has let us say 233 and let us say congress is around 90 BJP of course Remains the single largest Party by a long margin so there's no doubt uh it all depends on what you mean by big change to my mind losing 30 4050 seats is substantial but in the eyes of a pollster it may not be big change and also please remember uh that pollsters can make a uh type one error Dr Roy used to say type one error type two error and type one error is what everyone committed in 2004 and that's the kind of error pollsters can make I'm not saying they are in terms of Swing Away Raj look BJP had such large proportion of votes that if one one out of five voters of BJP were to move away and that's why I'm inviting all your viewers to please do your own small little survey but please don't do it in Flats of middle class colonies please go and speak to Ordinary People of this country uh when we do that if you see one out of five or one out of six voters of BJP or NDA moving away but almost no one from Congress or other India parties moving away in in that case you are confirming what I'm saying how many voters can I ask you how many or six how many voters of the BJP according to you need to move away for the BJP not to get a majority are you saying one out of every five am I correct one out of every five who voted for the BJP last time have to move away yes in BJ roughly uh it it is different in different states but uh in utar Pradesh and Bihar in in Bihar if one out of every five moves away uh BJP is about 20 seat NDA is down to 20 seats in uttar Pradesh if one out of every six or seven moves away even then BJP is in trouble okay uh so it varies from state to state uh but yes if some and I I felt that there was a change of this kind I could be wrong and let's wait for better survey evidence but you know to my mind one thing is certain Raj this is not not 2019 replay I certainly disagree with pradep gup G on one thing rajdeep you and I know that the mood in this country was very different before balakot and I had then said that BJP can lose 100 seats but one week after balakot I said this election is over you know you this is something has changed completely in this country mood changed people's conversations changed their stance changed I'm very surprised but any unfortunately this is a question which neither he nor I can prove because it's counterfactual but Bala cour changed everything you couldn't speak to people after that and certainly this is not 2019 by any stretch and certainly BJP is not adding to 2019 these two things I can say with all the emphasis at my command so I'll give you a final one minute Dr Bala because you've said exactly the opposite you've said actually the BJP will do even better than 2019 and if I if I may ask where is the BJP going to do better given the fact that they maxed out in Western Northern and Central India where is it when you say 3:30 uh the BJP are you saying that the BJP will win in unexpected areas and hold on to their own broadly that okay it's only 25 or 27 more seats yes than they got last time a few here a few there West Bengal the very controversial State who knows but I you know I'm not a a m I'm not a micro Village State estimate ever and as far as Bala Cod is concerned my book that you refer to Citizen Raj was written before Bala Cod happened and that had something like 283 seats for the BJP so I think it's it's highly debatable whether how much of a difference balakot made so are you saying it's stability continuity and leadership are you saying it's stability continuity leadership are you saying the voter wants a stable government Above All Else and in the absence of a of seemingly stability on the other side that's the reason why you maintain it's going to be 300 330 am I correct absolutely look what is the vter forget the economy Etc let's look at the opposition they don't have a face and yunda knows this Etc every election all elections in the world are now presidential MH okay they don't have a face second I don't think they have any new ideas and the ideas that they have are regressive for the average voter it's not regressive for all voters obviously but so I want to look at the evidence what is it that will make forget the the magnitude that Y is talking about a massive uh move away from the BJP I don't even see a trickle away from the BJP because I don't issues issues that will lead for a trickle away half there half here five seats here five seats there I can understand but this thing so I think it's a it's exactly what I said in the beginning this is a horse race and people have different uh forecasting ability I don't know whether my prediction would be right and I think yagas feels confident that his prediction will be right but I think broadly my prediction is at orthogonal to yuga's prediction and we'll have to just wait and see okay I'm going to leave it there because I think we've had two very different perspectives and of course PR G meile in the meanwhile Raj may I ask Dr Bala if he would take my offer can we go to a village Raj I would love to go with both of you to any Village in this country of his choice and you want to and you want to ask people there whether they feel they better off now than they were 5 years ago am I correct broadly that's the question youve been unemployment unemployment unemployment has unemployment has the employment situation got better in that Village in this country can determine okay okay I I think Dr Bala please take up yogendra offer he's going he's traveling across the country I hope you will join him there is anecdotal evidence available out there which suggest that these are serious issues on the ground so I hope you will do that uh but I want to leave it there gentlemen I think we've given a sense to the viewers of where those who've been observing politics over the years look at this election I want to leave you with some takeaways I've been traveling across several parts of this country I do believe that rashan for the poor and mahila I repeat mahila voters could still be the bjp's winning ticket in north and Central India where remember they had a large uh vote share last time Maharashtra and Bengal I maintain Remain the key Battleground States if the BJP has to maintain what it did in 2019 it has to also maintain its hold in these two large states Maharashtra and Bengal remain key Battleground States having traveled into deep interior Bihar just a few days ago disillusionment is is growing especially in rural areas but anger is limited ration in a way has limited the anger there is no major change from 2019 that I see in terms of seats but I'm not a cist but a more competitive election is there at the local level people are talking local narratives much more this time than they were in 2019 and it is intensely comparative in several local level constituencies Prime Minister Modi remains n number one I still saw him being hugely popular as I travel the opposition in particular is seen as not effective yet so a lot of people I met said you know government has not fulfilled ABC but were not able to see the opposition as a ready replacement I won't go into numbers but this is what I'm giving you as the big picture the question that we are going to raise what is the state of play after four phases is the BJP still in po position as most analysts said at the start of this election is the opposition catching up as some people believe or is it falling behind is 272 the new Target or is the bjp's new Target 400 these are some of the questions that we are going to be raising uh joining us now uh Dr surjit Bala he's just written a book citizen Raj that looks very closely at election Trends since 1952 I'm also joined by uh pradep Gupta joins me in a moment here in the studio the axis my India Champion pollster is with us uh in a moment also joining us is yogendra yadav uh who remember has stuck his neck out and claimed that the NDA will not get the halfway majority also of 272 he is the outlier at the moment in India claiming that the NDA is not even going to go to the halfway mark so I'm going to come to each of you and ask you for why you where you you believe uh the state of Play Lies after these four rounds and yogendra yadav I'll give you the first shot since you've said the most controversial statement on Twitter you've claimed that the BJP will be less than 250 and the NDA less than 272 is this Wishful Thinking by someone who's seen as a Critic of the Modi government what is the basis why you're saying that you believe that the BJP is falling behind R let me Begin by stating very clearly up front that I'm no longer a seist I used to be one I'm a political worker uh political workers need not

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Length: 26min 10sec (1570 seconds)

Published: Sat May 18 2024