Lok Sabha Election 2024 | Which Are The Swing States Of 2024? | Mission 2024 Enters Slog Overs

joining me now are two three very special guests I'm joined by yogendra yadav who is of the saraj Aban remember he's the president and convenor but he's been in an earlier afar apologist gvl narar ra is also a seist in his previous avar has been a former BJP MP of course and Rahul vhma of the center for policy research joins me he hasn't joined politics yet but he tracks politics very closely I'm going to look at tell you the six swing States I'm going to look at today and we'll go one by one and then give the big National picture swing state number one Maharashtra swing state number two is Bihar swing state number three is uttar Pradesh swing state number four is Karnataka swing state number five will be West Bengal and swing state number six will be harana interesting that we've included harana now in our list of Swing states are these the six states that could well decide cona 2024 as I said narima ra yogendra yadav Rahul Vara with us let's go state by state and I'm going to start with my home state of Maharashtra because many believe that Maharashtra will set the trend for what could happen in 2024 why don't you kick off first gvl Nimar ra tell us what you believe will happen in Maharashtra I'll tell our viewers last time 48 seats in Maharashtra the NDA won 41 alliances have shifted since then and there's a general feeling this is the one state where you could face a double digit loss how do you read Maharashtra Raj I think uh uh though we have done exceptionally well in 2019 we hope to better our tally in many of the states that you mentioned just now and certainly Maharashtra is one of them because our our alliance only has got strengthened compared to 2019 so certainly there is no way that BJP or the NDA will two seats here in the Maharashtra will certainly gain will better a tally I don't want to give a number right now we are still I think let's maintain some decorum because uh predictions or projections are not generally expected so I'll make only General comments in this we certainly will better our tally in Maharashtra you see every election I have seen um the general political pundry tells you that BJP is going to lose and every time that prove that gets proven wrong because in Mah in utar Pradesh let recall in 2019 practically everybody said you're going to go further down because there is no way you can go further up okay then because of the combination of bsp SP everyone predicted the BJP will be routed in 2019 that did not happen when SP and Congress got together uh in utar Pradesh they could not defeat the BJP in the assembly polls I think these wishes don't prove to be right every time Maharashtra I think we have a t with the with with the with the with the Shiva and NCP and though the big Breakaway factions are putting up a fight we certainly believe we have a much stronger Advantage compared to what we had in 2019 so we will certainly better our tally no way of going down in Maharashtra okay uh I want to come to you yogendra yadada because when I look at at those Maharashtra numbers and I want to tell our viewers please look at only 2019 at the moment 2024 is not a done deal but remember a number of alliances have shifted so when I say 37 seats there that's because a few of the sitting MPS have now gone to the udav takre group but last time when they contested together they won 41 out of 48 so 37 in that sense is actually 41 the BJP won 23 out of these I want to emphasize that they are contesting 28 yogendra yadav this time do you agree that therefore even if there are any hits in Maharashtra it could be well to the Allies to the shind Sena and the NCP Ajit Paar group The BJP believes their 23 seats will be secure in Maharashtra Ras may I begin by saying that let's get the terms of this debate right uh if Mr J Nimar is here to claim that BJP will improve upon its performance in Maharashtra which is to say go above 41 then I think I'm the wrong person for this debate you should have called someone from Congress who would claim that Congress and their Alliance will get 48 out of 48 I mean if we want to have that kind of a political debate without any substance we might as well not have a debate uh let's be serious let's have let's speak somewhat realistic things which have some substance MH uh I mean no one I I bet no one BJP leader in Maharashtra would say what Mr gbll Nimar is saying unless you have a camera on Raj you have traveled you know the reality now the simple fact is and let me Begin by saying what you have said I think it's a fair assumption to make that the losses of the NDA in Maharashtra will predominantly be losses of the Allies not of the BJP BJP would have smaller losses allies especially shind and and Mr AIT Paar as well the fact is that both of them are not seeing to be legitimate HS both of them are seen to have betrayed their original party and uh everyone in Maharashtra knows every poll every newspaper every reporter has reported so the only question in Maharashtra serious question is how much the NDA would lose and within the NDA who would lose my assessment to begin with was 15 a loss of 15 to NDA in which five would be the loss of BJP but 10 would be the the loss of its allies however after receiving reports yesterday from Mumbai now my sense is that we are looking at a loss of 20 but not a loss of 20 from 37 loss of 20 from 42 I would say 41 + 1 is the tally that I would begin because that's the tally we all remember 353 was the tally of NDA as it stood in 2019 so 42 I would say is there t in Maharashtra and I'm looking at a loss of about 20 seats but if you were to be conservative you could save 15 if it's 20 then I expect BJP to lose about uh seven or eight and a loss of 10 to 12 for its but remember yra as I said BJP is contesting more seats than they did last time they contested 25 last time they're contesting 28 this time they won 23 out of 25 So when you say losses are you saying in comparison to 2019 the 23 they won yes R and that's one of the reasons why bjp's losses would be less because they're contesting more seats this time right so uh if uh if we are looking at a situation where the NDA ends up with something like uh let's say 22 seats my sense is that BJP alone would get about 16 or 17 out of that okay and the Allies both the Allies put together will get a very serious drubbing as they indeed have got in Bombay and others they both of them put together could be reduced to just four or five seats that's my sense from Maharashtra okay

Channel: India Today

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Id: VU0HSnYn3bE

Length: 7min 36sec (456 seconds)

Published: Tue May 21 2024