Latest Track: Tropical Storm Ian Nears Turn Toward Florida | Tracking the Tropics (Sept. 25, 2022)

so let's show you the in-depth cone in fact it looks like the Grand Cayman Islands under a hurricane warning as this system is expected to become a hurricane later this evening or into the overnight hours definitely a category one by Monday morning category two to even a major hurricane as it approaches the tip of Cuba in fact now hurricane warnings have been issued these are new for the Western tip of Cuba and by looks like Tuesday morning that's what it would make landfall as that category three major hurricane and even become a category 4 storm as it moves closer to the Bay Area but it's going to encounter some wind shear and that is going to knock the system down a bit so by the time it makes its way offshore of Tampa according to this code looks like a category 2 storm and a category one somewhere east of Apalachicola at least in the Big Bend area that is what we're expecting right now yesterday these models were showing the cone directly impacting Tampa now now the cone has shifted off to the west and most of that shift did occur yesterday and lately it's been very consistent between the 11 o'clock run last night the five o'clock this morning run and the 11 A.M run not much difference in the positioning of the code so let's take a look at the GFS versus the Euro model the Euros the red and the GFS is the green L that you're seeing GFS has been taking this system more West the European more to the east not as strong though with the European model again it still has it taking this in pretty close to the Bay Area while the GFS is taking the system to the west of Panama City between Panama City and Pensacola and of course the European model would bring us a lot more in the way of rain now let's take a look at the GFS the heaviest rain in the yellow and orange Shady here the tip of Cuba come Tuesday morning at 10 45 there's your time stamp and as it makes its way to the north you see we don't see all that much in the way of rain not compared to the European model which I'll show you in just a second but most of the rain stays to our West and North that would be the best case scenario here for Tampa so let's show you the European model which tracks this a little bit further east as I just showed again the yellows and the oranges the strongest of the rain and notice you don't see as much in the color here as you did in the GFS model a weaker storm but it does take it right over the bay area and we would see Heavy Rain out of this one Wednesday and Thursday exiting the region by Friday now there are other reliable model plots that we look at they're in agreement all the way up through Tuesday in fact Western tip of Cuba that looks like the bullseye for the next couple of days once you get out in time the European models take it closer to Tampa and Fort Myers while the GFS and a lot of the other models take it over the Panhandle that is why the code is in this general area around the Big Bend region just to the east of Apple electric Cola now let's talk about some of the things working for Ian it isn't a moist environment dry air is well off to the Northwest so plenty of moisture to work with unfortunately for us good news for Ian right also there's a lot of heat content in the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico and that is going to allow Ian to strengthen quickly once it makes its way northwestward for now you don't see as much of the dark red shading so not as much energy to work with but 12 to 24 hours from now it will have that energy and we are expecting that rapid intensification but once it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico you don't see that heat content you're also going to see more wind shear not yet though in fact the blues and greens showing very low wind shear a good environment for Ian bad for us in fact to strengthen but once it does reach that category three category 4 status in the Southeastern Gulf see the dark red well that is high wind shear and that should cause Ian to drastically diminish in fact to maybe even a category two storm offshore and a category one by landfall but again it's still very early to tell now time wise we're looking at Wednesday morning the best chance of tropical storm force wind Southern communities such as Sarasota Manatee counties in the Tampa Bay Area early to mid afternoon Northern counties up to Citrus in the late latter part of the afternoon and into the evening 55 percent chance of tropical storm force wind here in Tampa 45 in Lakeland and Polk County and of course a lot less the further east you go but once again it's still several days out and a lot can happen so let's take a look at the comparison of how much rain we would get if the GFS model verified between three and six inches of rain but when you look at the Euro eight to ten to even 12 inches of rain if it does take Ian right through the Bay Area so again there's a lot of uncertainty here but we know that we will be impacted with this storm later on next week wave heights 10 to 15 feet a good 20 miles offshore that would equate to at least a four to six foot right along the coast so storm surge is going to be an issue and again this would start late Tuesday into Wednesday and then into Thursday once the storm is to the north of us it will be on the back side so it would actually be pulling water away from the Bay Area so that would be good news as it moves to the north and Northeast so this is what we know the cone has been shifting West over the past 24 hours not so much over the past couple of model runs but that's still good news spaghetti monopods doing the same thing Shifting the storm to the West Ian is expected to be a category two to category 4 system sometime Tuesday anywhere in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico now storm surge rainfall and wind of course depend on Ian's track and there's a lot to talk about in regards to Ian's track if it continues to move west well things will be a lot better for us here on the West Coast and in the Bay Area but if it continues or if it does move to the east just a little bit then we could actually see more significant impacts we'll get to where meteorologist q a in just a second let me just explain to everybody how it works and if Eric if it's possible if we could go back to the tracks I know that the forecast cone is really what people want to see in the center of your screen for the folks that have just joined us in the last few seconds again Eric Stone JB buno here with Junior hurricane headquarters on tracking the tropics what we're going to do now is start to answer your questions and it's really simple folks how this works all you got to do is use one of our hashtags for the Facebook live comment to ask your question and you do so live and we'll answer it Barbara in our Facebook live comment section saying hashtag hey Eric so it's expected to land north of us yeah so let's let's talk about this Eric because since the last time that we had a tracking the tropics update we were talking about Tampa Bay really being at the center of the forecast cone big difference you know obviously 24 hours we're starting to see the Euro push close to what the GFS has been showing us over the last several days so is really is the Big Bend area of Florida really you know what we're starting to look at now with with more with more focus it is definitely and I've noticed yesterday at five o'clock and even the 11 o'clock advisory the Big Bend area seems to be the Target now that doesn't mean we're not going to get impacts here in the Bay Area anytime you've got a hurricane or a major hurricane that's moving to the west of Tampa or the west of anywhere you're going to get that storm surge you're going to get that Southeast push of water into our Coast with that storm being offshore of course we wouldn't get as much storm surge and the heaviest of the rain will would remain offshore but as you can see the Big Bend area right now is the target let's get to this question from John as we talk about the the models here and we're still talking about a system that is south of Cuba let's remind our audience of that but John Adam Lugo hashtag hey Eric can you see the upcoming Five O'clock update Trend shift east four out of five models according to John have it coming to Tampa Bay and of course there are so many different models that we look at the GFS Eric and the Euro are the two primary models that we use because of course of their reliability the GFS the American model folks the Euro the European model we're going to talk more about the euro in just a second and the reliability of the of the Euro But to answer that question uh there from John Adam Lugo do you think that you know chief meteorologist Jeff beardelli put it really well on Facebook this morning he said it's like a windshield wiper sort of situation where we have these tracks that are just going back and forth west east west east do you think that there's a chance that it shifts back East later on this evening you know the trend JB has been to shift to the west and over the past 12 hours the cone's been very very consistent and you can see it right there making landfall somewhere in the Big Bend area now uh the Euro did shift slightly South and Eastward over the past six hours the GFS did as well but the consensus of the models and there's more than just four or five most of the models are taking this storm right where you see the cone right now into the Big Bend area if enough models shift to the east then National Hurricane Center will shift to the east but yeah like Jeff said it's like a windshield wiper I mean this storm could hit anywhere from the southwest Florida Fort Myers area all the way Westward toward Pensacola but again yes it's promising yesterday at least seeing the the track shift to the West for us here in Tampa yes it could shift back to the east but the cone doesn't usually shift back and forth like that let's get to this one and let's I want everyone just to take a moment and look at the size of the forecast cone uh ahead of a potential landfall here on the Gulf Coast side of Florida it's a pretty big wide ranging area Tampa is in that cone and let's just remind our audience Lisa asking hashtag hey Eric can the eye go anywhere within the cone and yes that's how you read the NHC forecast cone is that anywhere within this range Eric uh that's where the eye of the system could go so Tampa is very much still included in this and Rose asking hashtag kjb Tampa still a possibility and the answer to this is yes I think that there have been a lot of people that have been following the the forecast data Eric over the last 24 hours and and are are are feeling this this sense of relief but quite in the Tampa Bay area but quite frankly it's it's just too early for that because we still have days before this storm actually arrives near the Tampa Bay right and you saw on the satellite it's still pretty unorganized it still needs to get its act together before it really uh generates that hurricane status and hurricane wind um yes that's right anywhere in the cone that you're seeing is the cone of quote uncertainty meaning anywhere from the Fort Myers area all the way toward Pensacola in the Panhandle the I could move in any one of those directions between those two spots the most likely scenario of course would be right in the middle but yes it's so early to tell and of course when you get to four or five days out you notice the cone really widens and that's typical so again time will tell and we'll see the progression of the cone the next couple of days as we again look at this uh on on Max Defender 8 and or the forecast cone here from Max Defender eight um the the system right now let's remind our audience again is still south of Cuba so there's going to be that expected land interaction with Cuba Eric and then of course it will officially emerge in the in the Gulf of Mexico and at that point when do we really start to have a higher degree of confidence in the models is it after Cuba's at post Cuba pretty much now let's take a look I'm gonna fast forward these uh until I get to the model plots which are right here see how the models are in very close agreement right on the western tip of Cuba there now land interaction normally would weaken a storm the Western tip of Cuba it may slow the storm down from strengthening a little bit but I don't see it weakening the storm but once you get past Cuba so right now we're looking at Tuesday about six o'clock in the morning so call it about 48 hours from now pretty uh consistent with the models but once you start getting between three and five days out you see that spread on the model so yes it's going to take another day or two before these models really hone in on a certain point in regards to landfall with the end let's get to again more of your hashtag based questions and comments again for those of you just joining us you see the hashtags on our uh on our names or underneath our names on the left and right side of your screen just use hashtag hey Eric or hashtag kjb and we can animate your comments on screen like this let's talk about the Euro I mean I I mentioned it earlier Jennifer wants to know which of the two models has the greatest performance of accuracy in the past the Euro or the American model the GFS I think that if you ask folks uh associated with the Euro they would tell you that their model is the superior model and here in America I think that if you ask folks I think if you ask the meteorological Community they would tell you the GFS but the the Euro has such a loyal following I noted this on Twitter yesterday that uh there's this there has been this belief and I don't know if you agree with this Eric but there's this belief that the Euro has uh has you know has a consistency of being more accurate do you do you agree with that or do you like the GFS more I've been watching these storms for 11 years and I've seen so many scenarios where you don't even see a storm in the Caribbean and the GFS will put going right over Tampa or right over Fort Myers seven days out and the storm doesn't develop and the European Model A lot of times won't pick any storm up because it's not there over the past couple of years though I have noticed the GFS has been getting better and I have noticed the GFS becoming more reliable and more dependent compared to the euro but you know if you want to go back 10 15 20 years the European model has one but not lately let's get to this one from Alyssa hashtag ajb would it hit Tampa as a cat too like the model was showing or Cat four let's first remind our audience that again Tampa while it's in the forecast cone it does not mean that Tampa is going to of course be we're still monitoring the models and everything that's coming in um but let's talk about what Alyssa is getting at here with this with this question Eric because we're talking about it reaching Cat 4 strength in the gulf and then de-intensifying down weakening down to a category 2 system can you kind of explain to our audience yeah why that is so as you can see the European model I've got it right here Thursday one o'clock in the morning the European model pretty much right over Tampa you see the red lines around the L they're not as tightly packed we call those isobars lines of equal pressure on the GFS model you see how tightly packed those lines are and there's a lot more of them that means the storm is more robust it's stronger that would be your category 4 storm the European model is not predicting a category 4 storm hitting Tampa that's more like a category one or a category two so if the European model does verify I do not see it as a major hurricane uh making direct landfall here in Tampa Daphne wants to know hashtag hey Eric can it be you what Charlie did the the Charlie comparisons continue and rightfully so I mean it look folks do do a Google search grab grab your phone and look at the forecast track for for Charlie uh we're talking about a storm in 2004 that of course uh just did a lot of damage and destruction to to the peninsula um again do you think the comparisons are are fair and to answer Daphne's question do you think that it could do what what Charlie did as far as Ian well I mean it's definitely going to make that turn it's definitely going to turn north and Northeast like Charlie did Charlie was further south and it abruptly turned and you know it moved more northeasterly compared to this track no two storms are the same and the environmental conditions are not the same I don't see this storm taking a hard right if that's what you're asking I see it taking a more gradual Northerly and then northeasterly turn not even Northeast but more North Northeast just east of North so I don't see see this doing what Charlie did back in 2004

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Length: 16min 27sec (987 seconds)

Published: Sun Sep 25 2022