Kosovo triggers a domino effect in the Balkans

at the time of crisis in late march president hashim thachi of the republic of kosovo secured a motion of no confidence that toppled the government led by his political opponent prime minister al-bin khurti the feud between the head of government and head of state followed a dispute over how to respond to the coronavirus outbreak yet this seemingly innocent localized dispute is a front that covers the conflicting interests of the european union the united states and the republic of serbia while setting a dangerous practice for the wider periphery i'm your host shirvan and welcome to caspian report digital life makes things easier but it also leaves you exposed nordvpn is an affordable and user-friendly tool that hides your ip and thereby reduces your digital footprint the app works on mobile devices as well which comes in handy when traveling just go to nordvpn.com caspian report and use the promo code caspian report to get a discount on the premium version the year is 1999 and ethnic conflict erupts at the doorstep of europe albanian fighters belonging to the kosovo liberation army battle for a land of their own in a region then controlled by the serbian government in belgrade the serbian leader slobodan milosovic responds furiously and violently resulting in mass graves and refugees at the backdrop there are allegations of atrocities committed by the ethnic albanian fighters as well after many attempts to settle a ceasefire nato starts an intense bombing campaign against serb forces the result is a handover of kosovo to the u.n administration but the goal for a sovereign kosovo never lets up in 2008 kosovo declares itself independent from serbia and over a hundred countries recognized that act serbia however claims its former province as its own and the relationship between the two remains hectic disagreements range from energy and trade to day-to-day operations one of the main stumbling points is what to do with the serb minority within kosovo around 1 in 12 kosovar is an ethnic serb and nearly half of the serb communities are in the northern part of the country where they make up about 80 percent of the population despite years of effort towards integration the kosovar capital of pristina still struggles to control the predominantly serb-populated regions then in 2018 the kosovar and serbian governments have a breakthrough they start discussing the idea of a land swap to bridge the divide the idea is simple the preceptor valley in southern serbia where the population is mostly ethnic albanian will join kosovo in return serbia regains ownership over the majority ethnic serb area of kosovo in the north president thachi leads the negotiations and he is ready to sign a deal with his serbian counterpart that will alter the territorial landscape but things start unraveling in early 2020 when kurti takes office as prime minister the new prime minister strongly opposes the idea of redrawing the border between kosovo and serbia along ethnic lines and insists on keeping 100 percent tariffs on serbian trade in place both ideas being the brainchild of the president then kriti takes it a step further and announces a war on corruption and organized crime which threatens thaachi's position the thing is tachi is a former guerrilla fighter who was at the head of a secessionist militia that saw the separation of kosovo from yugoslavia and serbia in the 1990s now his past has caught up with him it is believed that he was involved in several criminal activities and human rights violations and the special court in the hague is looking to charge him for war crimes at this point tachi hits back and together with his political allies manages to pass a motion of no confidence when kirti imposes restrictions on the movement of people and goods during the coronavirus outbreak it's clear that tachi's decision to topple kurtis government was as much a political pursuit of passing the deal with serbia as well as an effort to protect himself from criminal prosecution and this is where things start to go international tachi lacked the electoral support to overthrow the head of government lawfully so he found support in the united states whose special envoy in kosovo backed the no confidence motion without american approval the kosovar government could not have been overthrown and the motives for washington are pretty straightforward brokering a historic agreement between kosovo and serbia would be a much needed foreign policy victory for the trump administration especially in the run-up to the presidential election but this political crisis in kosovo is cause for concern for many reasons the main one being that it could very well trigger a domino effect and destabilize the entire region mostly because it puts the idea of land swaps back on table some lawmakers and lobbyists believe that redrawing the border along ethnic lines would break the existing stalemate and normalize relations between serbia and kosovo most analysts however argue that the act would aggravate tensions across the balkans an exchange of territory would inevitably involve an exchange of population as well even with u.n oversight and with peacekeepers in place such a movement of people could result in renewed ethnic violence in turn that would destabilize the political formula possibly even triggering new secessionist movements in the entire region we've seen this story unfold too many times in modern history ever since the collapse of the iron curtain there are pockets of ethnic communities all across the balkans where residents dislike the country they live in this applies to the half a million albanians in macedonia half a million turks in bulgaria and more than a million hungarians in romania if kosovo and serbia are allowed to exchange territories it will alter public expectations across the region just think of the response by serbians and croatians in bosnia-herzegovina or the muslim communities in serbia there are no exceptions in international law and other minorities would likely demand the same treatment by the way you can explore this map on your own in 3d and use it for personal business or even research purposes it's available for those who join either the youtube program or the patreon network see the description box for more anyway so a land swap may sound good on paper but in practice it would open too many old wounds and play right into the hands of separatist nationalist forces and in a place as sensitive as the balkans that almost always ends in armed conflict we know this because the idea of creating ethnically homogeneous states has occurred multiple times in the history of the balkans and it never ended well land swaps especially done in a rush to fit political agendas like it seems to be the case here could do a lot more harm than good up until 2018 washington and brussels opposed any land swap deal for the reason that it could destabilize the periphery however by interfering in kosovo's domestic affairs and by helping to remove a democratically elected government official at the time of the coronavirus pandemic the united states has thrown its entire balkan strategy in the bin washington's decision went against its european partners and further strains the transatlantic relationship it also places kosovo's independence and sovereignty in jeopardy now kosovo is known to be a country that has been overwhelmingly pro-american since the nato operations in yugoslavia however most citizens are increasingly concerned with tachi's vanguard of former militia fighters in the political arena which has thus far failed to deliver efficient governance so with much of the course of our public being in support of curtis the american push to remove the prime minister is an ill-received move that could alter kosovo's attitude towards the united states in the near future part of the blame also falls on brussels by its inaction the eu failed to prevent the collapse of the kosovar government and the subsequent political crisis even though the western balkans are crucial for the security and stability of its member states in the east in fact the eu's recent history in the region has been a failure on multiple fronts it has often lacked a coherent and unified policy for the balkans leading to domestic political instability in numerous countries it has also compromised its values and enabled the rise of authoritarian leaders hence accelerating the region's democratic backsliding in short the eu is losing ground in the balkans and its removal from the arena could pave the way for new bigger and potentially more dangerous external influences think of russian turkish and even chinese power plays the balkans has long been a battlefield of great powers russia for one has tried to play a role in the balkan politics and regards the regional conflicts as an opportunity to exert its influence over the local actors and slow their integration into western institutions for instance moscow has fostered a rather strong diplomatic partnership in serbia and supports belgrade through economic military and diplomatic means turkish influence is also northworthy particularly in bosnia-herzegovina albania kosovo and even north macedonia turkish soft power whether it's in the form of cinema religion schooling or humanitarian aid is felt across an even wider area even distant china is now entering the game beijing perceives the eu's inaction as proof of a power vacuum in recent years china has positioned itself as a powerful external actor in the balkans which it sees as a valuable space in regards to its belt and road initiative china's influence in the balkans is still a work in progress but while the russians and the turks lack the economic capacities to expand their footholds china holds the financial means to back its vision though the united states and the european union have been fundamental in proliferating stability and security across the balkans and deserve credit for their efforts western influence in the balkans is in decline european neglect coupled with american disinterest leaves enough room from moscow ankara and beijing to expand their bearings in the region without western participation the balkan arena could see even more authoritarian lawmakers and even more corruptive practices all contributing to a destabilizing battle space in truth the european union hasn't completely abandoned the balkans to this point though washington's efforts haven't helped in the past few weeks brussels has shown renewed interest in the region and succeeded in initiating a dialogue between kosovo and serbia policymakers from both countries met in brussels last month for the first time since november 2018 and another meeting is planned for september with the united states increasingly on the sidelines the eu must either step up and take the lead in advancing the negotiations or do nothing and watch how the kosovo talks reignite tensions across the balkans i've been your host shirvan from caspian report help us to counter the algorithm by hitting the like button leaving a comment and subscribing thank you for watching and [Music] seoul [Music] you

Channel: CaspianReport

Views: 812,357

Keywords: Kosovo, Kosovar, Albania, Serbia, United States, European Union, Yugoslavia, History, Politics, Albin Kurti, Hashim Thaci, Analysis, News, Coup, Ethnic, Maps, Countries, Interesting, Geography, Balkan, Balkans, NATO, Russia, Turkey, China, Croatia, Bosnia, Domino effect

Id: RlPVWAjz_LE

Length: 13min 17sec (797 seconds)

Published: Wed Aug 19 2020