Jim Rogers: Identifying Opportunities While Markets Are Up to A Fever Pitch (w/Raoul Pal)

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Jim is a gold bug.

👍︎︎ 1 👤︎︎ u/Legitimate-Swimmer40 📅︎︎ Apr 28 2021 🗫︎ replies
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RAOUL PAL: Jim, welcome back to Real  Vision. It's always a pleasure and an   honor to chat to you. JIM ROGERS: Well,   it is my pleasure. It is my honor. I am a fan. RAOUL PAL: Thank you. Listen, Jim, you're one of   the people I love to reach out to when the world  is getting pretty confusing. We're all trying to   think through what's going on. We've got these  crazy markets and everybody's scratching their   head trying to think, okay, how does this play  out from here? How are you conceptualizing this   right now? What are you thinking about markets? JIM ROGERS: Raoul, if you don't know what to do,   you should watch a Real Vision. They can tell  you. They can tell you what's happening. If   you're busy, well, then get somebody to watch it  for you. How's it all going to play out? Well,   it seems to me that what's happening is because  of the gigantic amounts of money being printed,   it takes a while to build a factory, but it  takes 10 seconds to go online and invest.   A lot of money is going into investment  for markets all over the world,   and I don't see any reason for this to end. I see bubbles forming, but I don't see   full-fledged bubbles in stock markets yet. Some  stocks never go down. Tencent never go down.   Samsung never goes down. Apple never goes down,  but there's still a lot of stocks that aren't   up so it's not a full-fledged bubble. It is a  full-fledged bubble in bonds. Bonds have never   been this expensive in the history of the  world, at least the recorded history of the   world. So, bonds are definitely in a bubble. Property in some cities, Seoul is a gigantic   bubble. Look around our cities where property is  a bubble. Commodities, the only thing I know that   aren't, that are still cheap compared to the other  assets around the world and some stock markets.   I'm investing in China, I'm investing in Japan,  because the US is at an all- time high, but some   markets are still down from their all-time high. RAOUL PAL: I want to unpack some of these things.   You said something interesting about  companies like Tencent and Samsung,   do you think we've got a secular trend  change in how people value these high growth,   high margin companies? Is there a change going on  that we're having to get our heads around, because   the bond market basically is not a market anymore? JIM ROGERS: This is not my first rodeo, Raoul.   I've seen this movie before. Many times, people  get very excited. I can remember the late '60s,   if it had computer in the name, the stock went  through the roof, even if it was a laundry,   it didn't matter. Didn't matter what it was. We've  all seen this before. We're seeing it in Japan,   we've seen in America in the late '90s. This  has happened before and it's happening again.  Whatever the hot technology is of the day, those  stocks for whatever reason are very, very hot.   150 years ago, it was railroads. There  was a gigantic bubbles in railroads,   and you know, Raoul? Railroads are still  around, but you never made money in the   stocks if you bought them in the bubble. You remember 1929? 1929, Radio Corporation   of America, RCA, became unbelievably expensive.  Well, we still have radio. Radio merged with CBS,   etc., and they're still there but you never  made money if you bought it in the bubble,   so be careful. You ask how it's going to  play out, we've had bubbles before, we're  going to have them again, and they always  end badly. If you buy the bubble stocks,   you're probably never going to make money. RAOUL PAL: Something that I've noticed   this time around, --- NICHOLAS CORREA: Sorry for   interrupting your video, but I have  a very important message to share.   At Real Vision, we pride ourselves on providing  the very best in-depth, expert analysis available   to help you understand the complex world of  finance, business, and the global economy. So if   you like what you see on the Real Vision YouTube  channel, that's just the tip of the iceberg. You   should come to realvision.com and see how we're  not leaving any stone unturned. From publishing   more in-depth videos, live discussions, written  reports, and our latest feature, The Exchange,   where you get a chance to engage with experts,  fellow subscribers, and learn from everyone's   experience, which can't be wrapped in a video.  It's an experience which you live and learn from.   So if you go to the link in the description or go  to realvision.com, it costs you just $1 to get a   month's access to this incredible content. I don't  think it's something you can afford to be without. JIM ROGERS: going to have them again, and they  always end badly. If you buy the bubble stocks,   you're probably never going to make money. RAOUL PAL: Something that I've noticed this   time around, I'm now noticing this bubble behavior  built up. We've seen retail speculative activity,   the option activity. It's probably less than  in Asia, but it's very predominant in the US.   We're seeing mutual funds with record low cash  holdings, and we're seeing record margin debt,   all of the big market stuff, they're not  great for timing, but they start to stack up. It feels that somewhere, maybe in the next 12  months or even shorter, we run the risk of a 1987   event. By that, I mean a non-economic event but  a market-based event because everybody's over   those key tips. Well, any thoughts on that?  I was speaking to Philip Zulauf about this as   well last week, and Philip had the same view on  this, that it feels like it's heading that way.  JIM ROGERS: Well, it's surely does. You see a lot  of new investors piling in, talking about how easy   it is to make money, how much fun it is to make  money. I say, well, it was sure easy. SPACs.   You see SPACs coming in. SPACs often come in  at the end of big long bull markets. Remember   the Mississippi land company, the South  Sea land company, that was 300 years ago,   same thing. They've been SPACs long ago. All this has happened before, and it is   happening again now. Your question and mine  and everybody's is when is it going to end?   I don't see an ending yet, but something may well  happen. One thing that always happens is they just   get so expensive than it is, or a central bank  or two starts cutting back, or war breaks out or   something happens, and various and sundry thing,  but I don't see any of those things happen yet.  If everybody were buying stocks, when you go to  the dentist, Raoul, if the receptionist wants   to talk to you about stocks, that's a bad  sign. That's a very bad sign. Those sorts   of things are beginning to happen. I went to my  chiropractor the other day and then besides, the   lady wanted to talk about stocks. It wasn't the  receptionist yet, but it's starting to happen.  RAOUL PAL: You've got a lot of great stories,  I'd love you to tell a story of 1987.   How it affected you, your observations at the  time, and how you dealt with that, because I   just think experience is really important for  people. Whether that event happens again or not   is irrelevant, but I think it's really great  for people to share some of the experience  JIM ROGERS: Well, I'm delighted to talk about  that. I've had a few winners in my life,   that happened to be one. I don't know if you know  but I was short the US market, and it all happened   on my birthday. The best birthday, October  19th was my birthday. I couldn't believe it.  RAOUL PAL: I'll never forget that  now, too, because I know that day [?]— JIM ROGERS: Yeah, I won't either.  Don't forget my birthday, but me,   I won't forget October 19 , 1987. I've been babbling on and on and on about   how this is all crazy and out of control, and that  Greenspan didn't know what he was doing. Then it   started happening. It started about six weeks  before. How did I know that the thing started   coming apart six weeks before October 19th? Then again, you had all the people   buying on margin, speculating was very easy,  stocks went straight up for nine months or   something. Raoul, you've been around, you  know these things have happened before.  RAOUL PAL: What tipped at that time? Because  that was a weird one. Because the central bank   didn't raise rates, bond yields were going up and  the dollar was bouncing off the falling sharp,   those kinds of things? Any idea what tipped  it, or is it just the crowd? It just changed. JIM ROGERS: Well, there's  portfolio insurance in those days,   there are all sorts of new wonderful inventions   to make sure stocks never went down or that  nobody ever lost money again. I don't remember a specific trigger. I do remember  that it started, like August   25 , I was having dinner with a friend of mine, the head of the Wall Street Journal at the time,   and we're talking about it and I was telling  him, blah, blah, blah, and lo and behold, that   was today. He still remembers, I still remember,  but I don't remember anything specific happening   that caused it. It just got too overheated. You  don't have to have a specific ringing of the bell   or shooting of the pistol,  but it can happen that way.  RAOUL PAL: Let's flip it to the bond market where  you said there is a huge bubble that's being   built. How does that end? Why does it end, because  the central banks won't let it end essentially?   We've seen it in Japan, they can buy unlimited  amounts of bonds. How does this stop?  JIM ROGERS: And they are buying them, and the  head of the central bank says-- his word is   "we will print unlimited". That's his word,  unlimited amounts of money and put it in the   investment market and he's doing it.  Raoul, he buys ETFs every day. Well,   I own Japanese ETFs. He's got more money than  I do. If he's going to buy ETFs, I am too.  The Japanese market is still down 35% from its  all-time high. US market is making all-time highs.   There's a chance, I don't know, you  watch Real Vision, they'll tell you   but there's a chance that the Japanese  market may go back to its all-time high   of over 30 years ago because of all the craziness  that's going on in Japan and in the world.  I do not know what the trigger will be. I can  feel what's happening. I see all the signs,   we've talked about some of the signs, but  it's not as though there's total madness yet.   As I said, there are a lot of stocks that are  still down, or still aren't participating. Now,   in the bond market, everything is participating.  Junk bonds, foreign bonds, everything.  Unless you have a special situation bond, I  would not own bonds anywhere in the world.   I do own, full disclosure, I do own  some Russian government bonds in rubles,   but they're short term. They're a year or two. RAOUL PAL: When you're allocating risk now,   what are you looking for? You talked like  Japan a bit, and I understand, A, you've   got the central bank on your side, and B, it's a  discounted market and it's not wildly expensive,   what else is interesting to you right now   where you're more comfortable taking risk? JIM ROGERS: Well, I will be buying agriculture.   In fact, I have orders in at the moment to buy  more agriculture because agriculture is still   very-- as I said, commodities are the only thing  that I know that is still cheap. Silver's down 45%   from its all-time high. Sugar is down  75% or 80% from its all-time high. Some of this stuff is still very cheap.  Fundamentals are improving. Russia,   everybody hates Russia. I'm buying Russian stock  as we speak, but I don't want to buy Apple. Now,   if you know what you're doing, then you're going  to make a fortune in Apple this year, not me.   I'm not on the long side, maybe the short side  later this year but no, that's not the thing   that I'm any good at investing in. RAOUL PAL: When you're trading   the agricultural commodities, are you trading  the future's contracts? Are you trading equities   that have exposures to them, or a bit of both? JIM ROGERS: Mainly I'm buying the ETFs because   ETFs are a miracle. For lazy people like me,  they're great, but, Raoul, I'm sure you've   seen all the studies and studies show that if you  invest in the index, you're going to outperform   most investors, professional and otherwise.  For me, I'm buying an agricultural index,   ETF, ETF to be exact. RAOUL PAL: What about   gold and silver? You mentioned silver,  they've had a slightly ugly year.   Gold has been chopping lower for six months or  so and can't really get its traction. What do you   think gets that market going again, and the miners  as well which is very cheap have been struggling?  JIM ROGERS: Well, I have not been buying  and probably will not buy. I'm waiting   for the correction to work its way out.  Listen, my market timing is horrible.   I'm the worst market timer in the world, Raoul,  so don't listen to me for short term trading.   Somewhere along the line, I hope that I'm smart  enough to buy more silver and more gold, probably,   more silver than gold because silver is down  45%, gold is only down 10% from its highs, so no. Before this is over, Raoul, both of them  are going to go through the roof, because   history shows that whenever people lose  confidence in governments and money,   all of us peasants buy gold and silver. Listen, the politicians and the academics would say,   forget gold. It's a barbarous  relic, whatever their term,   but Raoul, peasants like me have some gold in the  closet. We like to have some silver under the bed.   Because we peasants know, okay, maybe it's not  any good, but we want some, but I'm not buying   it now. I own a lot, but I'm not buying now. RAOUL PAL: Have you ever caught the Bitcoin   bug? Have you got an interest in that yet? A  lot of people have started to get right in,   and I've been very involved with it for a  long time now. What's your thoughts on that?  JIM ROGERS: Well, I wish I had bought  Bitcoin. I will point out that many   cryptocurrencies have already disappeared and gone  to zero. We all hear about Bitcoin. We don't hear   about the dozens that don't exist anymore.  There's no question that money is going to   be on the computer. You cannot take a taxi in  China with money. You cannot buy ice cream in   China with money. You got to put it on your phone. Some countries, every country is working on it,   including the US. Chinese are here. Raoul, my  view is this is going to be their money. Let's   use the Bitcoin, if Bitcoin ever becomes a viable  currency, not a trading vehicle but a viable   currency, they can outlaw it. Governments don't  want to lose control. They like their monopoly,   and once they all have their own government  money, do you think they're going to say, okay,   here are US dollars and they're on the computer,  but if you want to use something else, you can?   That's actually not my experience  with governments anytime in history,   but most times in history, and I can't imagine  the US Government's going to let people do that.  RAOUL PAL: No, a lot of people now try not to  think of Bitcoin as a replacement to currencies,   but more as a store of value like gold plays,  but in the digital world. In which case,   the authorities, yes, occasionally they ban  gold here and there but generally speaking,   they allow it to exist alongside  saying, if you want a store of value,   that's okay, just don't let it become money. JIM ROGERS: Well, as I said, if it's just a   trading vehicle, I don't see any reason if they  would outlaw it, unless it's money laundering or   something like that. No, if people aren't trying  to use it to compete with government money,   why not? I'm not a very good trader, so I can't  imagine that I would ever try to buy and sell them   but there are plenty of guys who are  very good at it who are doing it.  As a store of value, I don't-- well, yeah,  considerably, but I don't know what the value is.   Listen, if we have a store of value of silver,  I know that silver can be used in solar panels,   and electric cars, etc., etc. I don't know what  Bitcoin can be used as except for trading them.  RAOUL PAL: One of the things that I'm  looking at is the underperformance of   emerging markets versus developed markets  and particularly versus the US, it's all-time   underperformance. When we talk about cheap,  some of these markets are really, really cheap   in comparison. They're not super cheap in price  terms, but generally very cheap in comparison.  How are you thinking about emerging  markets? It's got to be on your radar   screen. You're a big emerging market fan, and  you obviously allocated some cash to Russia,   but what are you looking at in that? Do you  think there's a big opportunity setting up?  JIM ROGERS: I know they're huge  opportunities. I mentioned Russia, which   most people consider an emerging market. China.  I'm buying Chinese shares, and Japan's another   emerging market. It will be again someday, but not  now. Those are a couple that I have on my list.   I'd like to be buying Myanmar, but I  cannot do it now. You have to go there,   which is I'm not interested in going to  Myanmar at the moment. I'm looking,, but   I don't have anything other than maybe Russia  and China that I'm buying at the moment.  RAOUL PAL: Last time we talked, we chatted  a bit about India, and you were like, no,   everyone gets burnt in India, because it's  full of promises and no answers. How are   you thinking that one through? Because  it just still keeps going up regardless   of all of the governments and the bureaucracy  and all the other terrible things that go on? JIM ROGERS: Well, it's at an all-time high.  Yes. Again, back to my earlier statements,   I'm not particularly interested in rushing out.  You want me to tell you things about 20 years ago?   I don't want to waste your time, and you  don't want to hear it. You want to hear   what I'm buying tomorrow. You want to buy what you want, you want to know what I'm buying next   week. India's not on the list at the  moment but if you drive it down 50%,   it'll be on the list again. RAOUL PAL: Now, you're in a unique situation   being in Singapore, the world is very Western [?]  centric right now. What do you feel the mood is   on the ground in Asia? How are people in Asia  thinking through because they generally have a   very good COVID-- they managed it well. Economic  growth is returning faster than elsewhere. There's   a lot going on in the region. What's the sense on  the ground there, and what people are thinking?  JIM ROGERS: Well, one of the main things  that I sense and is happening is America,   Donald Trump pulled out of Asia. He pulled out of  the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Everybody said, oh,   wait a minute, that leaves Asia for us. Then a  month or two ago, there was another 15-nation   trading partnership without  the US, including a lot of our   allies like Japan, Australia, places like them. They're moving on here. America, I hope somebody   in Washington has now said, wait a minute, we  better do something. They're moving on without us.   The sense I have here is that's exactly  what's happening. Asia's saying, okay,   see you, we're going to move on. We want to  trade, we know there's a lot of money here,   a lot of trade here, a lot of energy here,  and they're moving on. The US in the end,   I don't want to overstate this, but many people  are realizing not that the US is irrelevant,   but that we can get along without the US if we  have, and they're doing it. They're moving on.  I even said, in Korea right now, they would  like to do something about North Korea.   They haven't been able to because of the US,  but I get a strong sense. [?] are now saying,   well, maybe we should do something on our own. RAOUL PAL: It feels that the world is splitting,   that an Asian bloc is forming, as you say.  Everyone seems quite comfortable with it.   One of the issues for everybody is the Asian  trade was always in US dollars, which is crazy.  JIM ROGERS: They say that, too. RAOUL PAL: The Chinese digital   currency is the start of a big change, I think. JIM ROGERS: I noticed in the last few weeks or   days that Angela Merkel is [?] more and more. We  got to be nice to the Chinese. Mr. Trump smashed   the Chinese, but wait a minute, wait a minute,  we should be doing business with China. Even   the prime minister in England today said,  I love China. I'm very, very keen on China,   because he's starting to get  the pushback among companies   in England. Wait a minute, what are you doing? It's the second largest economy in the world,   huge creditor nation, etc. I'm beginning to  sense that other people are starting to say   Mr. Trump can bash them all he wants, the  democrats can bash them all they want, but   we know where our bread could be buttered. RAOUL PAL: Yeah, it feels to me,   I get interested when the narrative is  all one way. The narrative, particularly   in the US is extremely China negative. It's  from both sides of the political spectrum,   and that often feels to me like an opportunity.  When the narrative has gone too far one way, you   see the continued growth in China, the continued  rise in what's going on the technology, the amount   of money pouring in from the government, and even  from foreign capital. It feels that people are   going to get politics confused with markets. JIM ROGERS: Well, throughout history,   when a country has problems, the politicians blame  foreigners. That's what Trump was doing. He was   saying, those evil, yellow people with black eyes  and black hair, and they speak a funny language,   and funny food and funny clothes. That's  what politicians always do, Raoul,   go back and read history. Not just America,  everybody, all politicians throughout history   blame foreigners when they have a problem and  it's easy to blame foreigners for many reasons.   That's what Trump was doing, and he certainly  raises the rhetoric and the Democrats joined in.  I sense that the Democrats at the moment  anywhere else say, wait a minute, guys, let's   start over. Let's think about this for a while,  but certainly, other countries in the world,   I get a strong sense, are starting to say,  well, maybe, maybe we can figure out a way to do   something about this. One reason I'm interested  in buying Chinese shares, they are below   US, below most other stock markets, and certainly  on a historic basis, and they certainly seemed to   have handled the virus much better than most  countries did. I don't believe any government,   but I see it on the internet. I see what's  happening in the streets and in the restaurants   and the people. I see they're going to dance  halls and gym classes and everything else.  The Asians seem to have done a less bad  job, especially China, and the rhetoric,   this crazy rhetoric has happened throughout  history and sometimes it has led to war,   shooting war, not just trade war. Let's hope it  doesn't happen again, but I'm investing in China.  RAOUL PAL: You actually are a huge influence on me  when I read Investment Biker for the first time,   and I just started out in investment banking in  the early 1990s. It made me realize, and I think   you really got people to think about this, is  that what you hear is not necessarily the truth.   What you see when you go there, speak to  people, that's closer to the truth. There   is no truth in financial markets or  economies, but it's closer to the truth and   that was a huge lesson I learned from you. JIM ROGERS: Well, it's a huge lesson I taught   myself, I learned from it too, by going. First  time I went to China in 1984, I always assumed I   was going to get shot. American propaganda all my  life. It said they're evil, vicious, bloodthirsty,   dangerous, poor, disgusting people. It didn't take  me long to see from the ground up. Wait a minute,   wait a minute. There's another story here,  but I learned that many times, Raoul, in my   life. You better see it for yourself and certainly  don't believe propaganda. Don't believe Chinese   propaganda, American or anybody, don't believe  anybody's propaganda. Check for yourself.  RAOUL PAL: That's why Russia periodically  becomes so cheap because Westerners shun it.   It's once every 10 years, Russia becomes just  a phenomenal trade. I guess you sensed that   with commodities starting to go up in price,  Russia pretty much shunned by foreign investors,   and I don't speak to anybody who's got anything  in Russia right now. There's other times when   everybody's investing in Russia, nobody's got  anything right now. Is that your sense as well? JIM ROGERS: I have Russia, I'll buy more.  They've got agriculture, they've got oil,   both of which have been disasters for a while,  and as you know, everybody hated Russia,   still do, still hates Russia. I  hated Russia for many decades,   but in the last four or five years, I think I've  seen a change in the Kremlin for whatever reason,   and they understand investing. They understand  capital, they understand entrepreneurship now.  This is not Switzerland. This is not  the Netherlands, but it seems to be a   chance. My goodness, this is cheap. Raoul,  nobody would lend money to the Russians,   and so they don't have gigantic debts, like  the US or Japan or the UK or other people.  RAOUL PAL: What about in the currency world,  anything interesting, or are you just thinking,   well, the dollar probably slowly falls from here?  Anything particularly interesting? Personally,   I find a lot of interesting in the currency world,  but I don't know if you were seeing anything.  JIM ROGERS: My view is that if there's going to  be turmoil sometime in the next year or two, big   turmoil for reasons we discussed earlier. Whenever  that happens, people look for a safe haven,   and for historic reasons, many people still think  the US dollar is a safe haven. It's not. America's   the largest debtor nation in the history of the  world, Raoul, but people don't think that way.   I certainly see problems in the UK  and Europe etc. I'm not going to buy   the Russian ruble. The Chinese renminbi, they  cannot buy because it's not convertible yet.  I own a lot of US dollars on the assumption  that in the next turmoil, it's going to get very   overpriced, it could turn into a bubble as well.  At that point, I'm going to have to sell it. Well,   for economic reasons, it's the largest debtor  nation in world history, but also for political   reasons, if Washington gets angry at you, they  cut you out, I keep saying, they cut you off.  Well, people are starting to say, wait a  minute, wait a minute, that's not what an   international currency is supposed to be,  it's supposed to be neutral. It's supposed   to be usable anywhere. Now, they're looking for  a competitor. They're working on competitors,   India, China, Brazil, Russia, various countries  are working on competing currencies to compete   with the US dollar, and I suspect it will happen. RAOUL PAL: The one place that nobody talks about   bizarrely is Europe. Everyone has just given up  entirely. Have you given up entirely as well?   I have, I don't really bother to follow it.   It's interesting they're going  into a digital currency and stuff,   but Europe, I don't know, what do you think? JIM ROGERS: Well, as you said those words, I said,   Russia is right. Many of those markets are  up, of course, because they follow the US   market and the Euro as a currency, to  me, is not wildly exciting for the   reasons we all understand. I suspect there are  going to be more separatist movements since the   British pulled it off at some point but there  are politicians in other countries now saying,   I could make my name by being in favor of  separatism, and they're starting to do it.  I would expect to see more turmoil of that  sort in Europe, but as you said those words,   I own a few shares in Europe, but no, I'm not  buying anything. I guess because I'm not looking.  RAOUL PAL: We'll just ignore the  third of the world's economy.  JIM ROGERS: I have noticed that Mrs. Merkel is  starting to be nicer about the Chinese. I noticed   that the Prime Minister Boris Johnson is starting  to be nicer about Chinese. These things I noticed,   because I'm in Asia, those are only recently that  is starting to happen. That, again, is Chinese   centric or Russian centric. That's what attracted  my attention, because they're starting to talk   about changing their views towards the East. RAOUL PAL: One of the things that obviously   endlessly comes up and you'll have heard it a  thousand times before is Taiwan and the risk of   something, a conflict there.  Do you see that risk is rising,   just same as it ever was, or just  the rhetoric keeps going up and down,   how do you get to grips with that? JIM ROGERS: I see the rhetoric rising,   especially when Trump was there, and they were  doing everything they could to bash China. That   rhetoric, I have this sense, is calming down  now but again, all these passions and views have   been inflamed in the last two or three years. RAOUL PAL: I just want to go back to commodity   markets. You've been very actively involved  in commodities over the various cycles.   Do you think this is a reflation idea, it's two to  three years, we can make some good returns out of   it, or are we seeing something bigger? Obviously,  I remember when you wrote the book about   commodities, that was China coming in, so there  was a huge demand shift to the world, and you were   dead right in that. It doesn't feel like we've  got a demand shock here. It feels like it's more   a cyclical commodity play. What are your thoughts? JIM ROGERS: I'm starting to see a lot of people   talking about a new supercycle in commodities. I  wish they weren't saying that, because when a lot   of people are bullish, it worries me. I don't  like them. I wish they would seriously, oh,   it's crazy. I do know that on the supply side,  there are many problems partly because of the   virus, and I do know there are some demand shifts  that we're all going to have electric cars,   apparently. Well, electric cars use five  times as much copper as regular cars.  Some of this stuff like zinc and lead, they  need it. Silver, they are for solar panels,   they're for electric energy, you need a lot of  these things. There are demand shifts taking   place, but nothing like the coming out of China  20 years ago, but there are things happening   and the supply side is down because of the virus  and the problems it has caused. I'm bullish.   I'm long commodities. I hope I'm buying some  more yesterday. I don't know. I'll have to see   what's happening, but absolutely not selling. RAOUL PAL: There is also the upside chance that   there's fiscal stimulus that's still to come,  not the ones to get rid of cash flow problems   over the virus, but the infrastructure projects  that both the EU and the US have talked about,   and they're generally going to be green  infrastructure projects I'm guessing.   That could be a demand shift that nobody's  really factoring in yet, particularly in some   of these commodities that it's not iron  ore this time around, as you said, it's   silver and copper and other stuff, lithium. JIM ROGERS: It's the things that people   use for electricity. Electricity has been  around a while. You're not reinventing   the world here. We're using it in more and  more demand intensive ways or so it seems.   No, I see it but I also see that they-- oil is  down gigantic amount for various and sundry good   reasons. That too, if you ask me, oil is making  a complicated bottom, the frackers came in,   huge bubble. Now, that bubble popped. Well, if you  could spell fracking, people would give you money.   They would give you all the money you want it. Now they realized, oh my god, you got to make   money, got to pay your bills. When the fracking  bubble burst, there's still fracking, going to be   but it's not such a huge new source of supply as  we had before. In the meantime, known reserves   of oil continue to decline and these are simple  straightforward facts, but only some miracle here.   Oil is cheap. Hydrocarbons are cheap, it seems.  Anyway, commodities are certainly the cheapest   asset class I see right now. RAOUL PAL: Final question,   silver which you've mentioned a couple times. I  know a lot of people are interested in silver.   We talked about ETFs, just getting exposure to the  metal itself or owning the physical metal itself,   do you look at silver miners as well?  Is that something that interests you,   or do you just keep it simple? JIM ROGERS: I'm lazier than I used to be.   I have always been very lazy, but if you  have a silver miner, send me an email,   I'll look at the name and gold miners but again,  Mark Twain who is a great American writer once   said the definition of a goldmine is a hole in the  ground with a liar standing at the top. There are   hundreds of silver and gold miners in the world.  There's only one of these, so, it's simple.  RAOUL PAL: Keep it simple and stupid. JIM ROGERS: Yes. It's simple, easy to   buy this, the ETF or the stuff, the real stuff  but if you know, Raoul, if you know a silver   miner is going to find a big deposit in Berlin,  you should buy all you want and send me an email,   I want to buy it too. You'll make a fortune.  Unfortunately, there are hundreds of those   out there. RAOUL PAL: And   you don't know who's telling the truth. JIM ROGERS: Yes, I'm keen. I'm keen. I'm   keen, but certainly on silver and  gold, better silver, but I don't  have any. I don't have any silver  mines at the moment in my portfolio.  RAOUL PAL: Jim, look, as ever, real pleasure  to speak to you, to pick your mind, to get   your perspective of what's going on, I really  appreciate your time, and brilliant to catch up.  JIM ROGERS: Well, I am still a big fan of what  you guys are doing. I hope you keep it up. It's   remarkable. It's remarkable what you have  done and are doing, and I hope you continue.  RAOUL PAL: Thank you so much, Jim. NICK CORREA: I hope you enjoyed this special   episode of the Interview, the premier business and  finance series in the world. However, this is just   the tip of the iceberg. For more in-depth content  and expert analysis, visit the membership link   in the description to unlock a week’s access for  only one dollar. This dollar can change your life.
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Channel: Real Vision Finance
Views: 65,141
Rating: 4.8557076 out of 5
Keywords: Finance, Markets, Economy, Stock Market, Investing, Trading, Education, Financial Literacy, Recession, Interview, Conversation, Strategy, Insight, Analysis, Facts, Data, Fraud, Entertainment, Thesis, Short Seller, Real Vision, Equities, jim rogers, raoul pal, fever pitch
Id: 2YPm3wmdgFI
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Length: 37min 15sec (2235 seconds)
Published: Tue Apr 27 2021
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