Japan finds itself at a crossroads. After decades
of post-World War II reforms and peace in the Pacific, the former military empire, now turned
pacifist, is staring once more down the barrel of a gun. In a move that has angered many of Japan's
'neo-pacifists', its military is rearming and its constitution is being reinterpreted as it
eyes ever more potent offensive weapons. Because Japan is preparing for World
War III to break out in its backyard. In previous videos we've pointed out how the
United States is one of the most privileged nations on earth. With two massive oceans on
either side, and no major power anywhere in its entire global hemisphere- mostly because
the US threatened to fight with any European power expanding there in the late 19th and
early 20th century. This has made the US just about untouchable by any enemy, as well
as incredibly resilient during times of war thanks to its abundant natural resources and
ability to shift shipping from either coast. But if the US got the best spawn in the
world, Japan got the absolute worst. The nation is resource poor, and doesn't even
grow enough food to feed its own population. These fundamental weaknesses are what
prompted Japan's ill-fated attempt to oust the US from the Pacific
during the second World War, and what put it on collision course with the
Russian Empire just prior to the Russo-Japanese War. If Japan was going to be a great nation,
it needed to expand past its borders to the mainland and turn Korea and China into colonies
that would feed the island-nation's ambitions. Trade is the name of the game for Japan, and
while pretty much every nation's economy relies on international trade, Japan's is critically
dependent on it. Without the ability to ship goods in and out of the country, Japan would collapse
financially and its people would starve, with only enough food growing capacity to feed a fraction
of its current population. In 2020, Japan had a self-sufficiency rate of only 37% based on an
average 2,000 calorie diet- this means that if all trade ended immediately, Japan could only feed 37%
of its population, or about 46.5 million of its 125.7 million population. That's a steep drop off
from 1960, when Japan could cover all of its own food needs with a population of 94 million. The
threat of being cut off from food imports is so dire for Japan that it's prompting a reevaluation
of its national self-defense policy, and the nation is looking at ways to combat ever expanding
urbanism while also expanding available farmland. And it's not just food, it's pretty much
everything necessary for a modern society to function. Japan's top five imports are petroleum
products, natural gas, electronic components for telecommunications, semiconductors, and coal. At
the same time, Japan's top exports included cars, microchips, and motor vehicle transmissions. China
and the US are Japan's biggest trade partners respectively, but with about $700 billion in
imports and exports both, Japan trades globally. And in what appears to be a repeat of the
nation's pre-WWII history, Japan is once more building up its military to secure its trade
interests- but this time it’s not quite the same. Once Japan dreamed of empire, but today Japan's
just looking to ensure its own independence and national survival. The nation is perfectly happy
to cooperate globally along established norms, but its over dependence on foreign trade is
a glaring achille's heel that an increasingly aggressive China could potentially
exploit, with disastrous consequences. Japan's major trade routes run across the Indian
Ocean, through the Straits of Malacca, and past Taiwan to the home islands. Further, Japan sits
exactly north of the Asia-North American trade route- through which more goods are transported
than any other trade route in the world. With its most important trade routes running parallel
to the Chinese coast, and past Taiwan, China has its foot on Japan's trade jugular- and in case
of war, would not be afraid to apply pressure. Japan supports Taiwanese independence for many
reasons, but it's this reason that ranks amongst the highest- a Chinese occupation of Taiwan would
allow it to break First Island Chain containment and send its warships freely out to sea. The First
Island Chain consists of a chain of US-aligned nations and runs from Japan in the north to Taiwan
in the center, and the Philippines in the south. During the entirety of the Cold War it was this
island chain that hemmed in any communist navy attempting to enter the Pacific. Today it serves
much the same purpose, and the US and its allies can prevent any Chinese vessel from sailing
into the Pacific in case of war. With China building multiple new carriers and assembling
them into battle groups, breaking containment would allow China to dictate trade in the whole of
the western Pacific- and leave Japan at its mercy. However, it's not just trade that matters to
Japan- it's keeping China from seizing a global monopoly on the thing that every modern economy
today needs just as bad as oil: microchips. Taiwan produces the majority of the world's
microchips, and its specialized factories build nearly the entire global supply of
the most advanced 3mm kind that you can find in the most sophisticated electronics
and advanced military weapons. Decades ago, the US got out of the microchip game as they
could be more cheaply produced overseas. Taiwan saw an opportunity and leapt on it, and today its
microchip monopoly works as an insurance policy- no nation that values its own sovereignty has any
interest in allowing China to seize Taiwan and thus impose its will upon them by threatening chip
embargoes. France's Macron may talk a big game about Europe seeking a “third path” with China
that doesn't align with the US' opposition to a Chinese invasion, but until Macron figures out how
to replace microchips with croissants in sensitive electronics, literally the entire French economy
still needs free access to Taiwan's microchips. And in Macron's world, China will give
you that access- as long as the entire EU does exactly what the Chinese
Communist Party wants you to do, because the moment that the guy who banned
Winnie the Pooh from all of China doesn't like what you're saying in your free press, no
more microchips for you, and no more economy. Japan doesn't want to live in that world,
which is why it's greatly increased interoperability with the US military
in one key way: expeditionary forces. Pacifism is enshrined in the Japanese
constitution, put there on purpose by the United States after World War II- and
one would find it hard to blame them when Japan had just set fire to literally
the entire Pacific. The world could do with a whole lot less Banzai charges to
the death and a whole lot more Pokemon, so Japan beat its swords into pens and began to
create anime instead. The Japanese Self-Defense Force was limited to pure self-defense missions
only, with equipment appropriate only for the immediate defense of the Japanese islands and the
waters surrounding them. Pacifism made its way all the way down to the specific weapons that Japan
armed itself with- meaning they have no long range attack cruise missiles or bombers for instance.
This worked out pretty great for a few decades, but then all of the sudden the US couldn't simply
sail carrier strike groups through the Taiwan strait every time China threw a temper tantrum,
and Japan woke up to the horrible realization that the very lifeblood of its economy sailed
right past a very belligerent Chinese coast. As a matter of national sovereignty and possibly
even survival, Japan needed to change drastically and face a new reality- one where the US was
no longer the undisputed master of the Pacific. The Chinese military buildup mirrored its
domestic economic explosion that rocked the world starting in the late 1990s. One year
China was a large, but disorganized and poorly equipped nation that couldn't even challenge
a single American carrier strike group a few dozen miles off its own coast. The next year
China was pumping out aircraft, missiles, and ships at a truly frightening rate. Today,
the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy is the largest navy in the world, even if by tonnage
and battle force missile count, the US is still superior. But a very carefully crafted strategy of
area denial/anti-access has ensured that in case of war, the US will take a long time to contain
the Chinese navy- and at very high cost to itself. China's plan to become the next global superpower
and dethrone the US is a direct threat to Japan, and to isolate Japan from its American ally,
China has invested heavily into technologies to keep US ships and aircraft at arm's length.
The cornerstone of anti-access, area-denial, or A2/D2 as the cool kids know it by, is the
People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. The PLARF is an entire military service dedicated to
long range precision attack utilizing cruise and ballistic missiles. And its inventory is
huge, with an estimated 1800 missiles of varying ranges- with most of them able to strike
into the waters around Japan and even the home islands themselves. Its massive stockpile
is spread out across mobile launchers and six missile bases in the Chinese mainland,
where they are well protected from attack. Its air force meanwhile is equipped with
over 231 H-6 strategic bombers, which have an intercontinental range and can deliver
devastating bombardments via air-launched cruise missiles. Its ever growing fleet also has the
ability to lob hundreds of surface attack cruise missiles against inland targets, and its growing
carrier capability means that soon China will be able to project power far from its own shores-
something it has historically been unable to do. All this puts the US Navy on
the defensive in the Pacific, and leaves Japan very vulnerable in case
of war- which is why Japan is preemptively fighting back by redefining
its own pacifist constitution. Japan has played fast and loose with its
definition of pacifism for a few years now. The nation has 22 attack submarines in service,
and they're all pretty darn good boats. Its oldest class, the Oyashio-class was laid down in the
late 1990s, and Japan has not stopped innovating since then. It's new Taigei class of boats are
powered by huge banks of lithium-ion batteries, allowing for greater endurance and higher speeds
than other diesel-electric submarines. The added range is of growing concern for a Japan that faces
the prospect of having to face off against PLAN ships far from its own shores. Many have argued
that Japan would be better served with nuclear submarines, allowing the nation to launch patrols
across the entire Pacific if it wished. In 2022, opposition parties in Japan's upper house floated
the idea of Japan acquiring nuclear boats, likely with the assistance of the US. Prime Minister
Fumio Kishida however was very apprehensive about the idea given Japan's feelings on the
use of atomic energy within their military, as well as the high operational cost of a nuclear
submarine fleet. [Animator note: when we refer to “boats” in here we mean submarines, so
use submarine models for this paragraph] The debate over nuclear submarines
rages to this day. One the one hand, Japan's current fleet is more than adequate for
self defense of its own coastal waters. Even with advanced batteries and air-independent
diesel propulsion, conventional subs simply don't have the range to operate far from home.
That's why the United States has never seriously considered adding them to its arsenal. But on
the other hand, the lack of a long-range patrol capability means that Japan remains completely
dependent on the US to secure its own trade routes through increasingly hostile waterways.
Japan thus risks not only it’s economic future, but its future as an independent nation by
alligning with the US. Luckily for Japan, the US is committed to the decades old alliance
between the two powers, and even with highly divisive domestic policies, is incredibly
unlikely to end this cooperation. However, China's rise may do what American politics can't,
and if the US can't operate safely in the Pacific, Japan's inability to strike far out at sea
will force it to become a Chinese vassal. Further bending the interpretation
of its pacifist constitution, Japan has for years played coy with
its own definition of the commonly accepted destroyer class of ship. In
pretty much every other global navy, a destroyer is a large surface vessel designed
for long-range missile warfare and air defense, as well as anti-submarine warfare. Japan agrees with
this definition, but it's destroyers also feature a huge flight deck and an entire complement of
advanced naval fighters. The nation operates four um... 'helicopter destroyers', two of the
Izumo class and two of the Hyuga class. Like a good destroyer, the Hyuga class carries
vertical cells for air defense missiles and anti-submarine rockets, as well as torpedo tubes.
It also happens to be equipped with 18 attack, utility, and anti-submarine helicopters, and is
undergoing modifications to be able to host F-35s. The Izumo class pretty much does away with all
pretenses and features no vertical launch cells for missiles, and instead can hold up to 28 V/STOL
aircraft such as the F-35. Yet Japan insists that this is still a destroyer that happens to have no
missiles that aren't fired by aircraft launched and recovered from its deck, because aircraft
carriers are offensive weapons of war that would violate japan's pacifist constitution. Naval
aircraft holding and recovering vessels however, are definitely not aircraft carriers in any
sense, and thus are still defensive weapons. Japan's aircraft carri- err,
helicopter destroyers- are fully capable of expeditionary operations,
but without submarines that can keep up, Japan is once more reliant on partner
nations to fill in capability gaps. The nation also operates 12 landing ships
meant to move troops and armor to shore, including the Osumi class which can launch
and recover Ospreys full of marines. Normally an obviously offensive weapons, this
class of ship actually makes sense for Japan to have given the numerous
islands that the nation must defend. Japan also fields 36 conventional destroyers,
with the more modern ships being equipped with the American AEGIS combat system which will be a
key feature of all future destroyers. While about half of its destroyer fleet is woefully
under armed for a conflict with China, its new generation of destroyers come with 96
vertical launch cells, rivaling US and Chinese equivalents. However, Japan has some serious
modernization to do to bring its destroyer fleet up to par given the very limited capabilities
of ships from its older classes such as the Murasame and Asagiri class, which don't have the
missile capability to face up to modern threats. All in all, Japan's navy is small and capable, but
in serious need of firepower upgrades if it's to face a conflict in the Pacific without direct US
support. As China's own capabilities grow though, the US will need greater and greater
support from its partners in the region. Japan's air force would be called upon in time
of war to directly support US efforts over and around Taiwan, and it's well suited to the
task. The primary air superiority fighter of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force is
the F-15J, a variant of the American F-15 Eagle built under license in Japan. This is
an incredibly capable fighter with a range of 3,000 nautical miles, and a combat range of just
under half that. This puts Taiwan and mainland China well within range of Japanese F-15s, and
being an American aircraft built under license, it's perfectly compatible with a whole slew of
new air-to-air missiles in development by the US. This is of serous concern to both Japan and
the US, as China's PL-15 air to air missile is simply put, better than America's
AIM-120. The PL-15 has a longer range, estimated at just over a dozen miles,
than the AIM-120, giving Chinese fighters first-shoot capability against US and Japanese
aircraft. This may not necessarily mean a kill, but it would force friendly fighters
into a defensive posture, limiting their ability to engage Chinese aircraft and leaving
themselves more vulnerable to follow-on shots. In response, the US is currently fast-tracking
half a dozen new air superiority missiles, with the one slated to hit the shelves soon
being the AIM-260. A two-stage missile, the AIM-260's range is classified, but
estimated to be around 30 miles greater than the PL-15. However, the missile
has yet to enter full scale production, and may only be available in small numbers should
hostilities break out in the next few years. This is why it's a good thing Japan has
acquired the F-35 from the US, and is looking to fully replace its F-15 fleet with the 5th gen
stealth fighter. Currently it operates 34 F-35s, of both the conventional and naval variant. A far
more capable fighter than China's 4.5 gen J-20, the F-35's stealth will allow it to close the
missile gap between itself and Chinese missiles, and still remain out of firing
solution range as it opens fire first. The effect of the F-35 cannot
be understated, with simulations of battles between 5th gen fighters and 4th
gen aircraft being overwhelmingly one-sided. The nation also has a large number of airborne
early warning and air control aircraft. It operates 4 Boeing E-767s, with 17 smaller E-2
Hawkeyes and 9 more on order. Given the vast distances between Japan’s islands, the capability
to maintain surveillance over large swathes of ocean and airspace has always been critical
for the modern Japanese military. However, China's growing stealth fleet is a direct
threat to these very vulnerable aircraft, which is why it's imperative
Japan acquires the F-35 along with new generation of American air
to air missiles with longer ranges. The Japanese Ground Self Defense Force
features a large array of very mobile or man-portable air defense weapons. For a
nation which faces the prospect of having to quickly move assets around a large island
chain, mobility is key, which is why it fields many short range mobile air defenses on
wheeled chassis. Increasingly though, Japan has been growing its arsenal of anti-ship missile
batteries, with the Type 88 surface-to-ship missile fielded in the 1980s and the newer
Type 12. However, both missiles have a very limited range making them suitable only for
the immediate defense of Japanese territory. This deficiency has prompted Japan to make one of
the most controversial military purchases in its history. In 2023, Japan signed a deal to buy
$2 billion worth of Tomahawk cruise missiles. Even more controversially, these missiles will
mostly be equipped on its destroyers. With a range of 1,000 miles (1600 kilometers), Japan
will be able to bring hundreds of precision missiles to bear deep into Chinese territory,
striking not just at PLAN ships out at sea, but at Chinese air and naval facilities deep
inland. The purchase has angered not just the Chinese, but parts of the Japanese public,
as the new missiles outrange the old Type 12 missiles by 800 miles, making it clear
that these are offensive, and not defensive weapons. Yet offense is necessary for defense, as
without the ability to strike at Chinese bases, Japan would be perpetually vulnerable to
Chinese attack and unable to disrupt offensive operations. This is much the same controversy
that surrounds current US military planning as it considers a response to a war with China,
with some in the US government and military arguing against strikes on Chinese mainland
bases and facilities, and others pointing out that to not strike at these mainland targets
could result in an overall Chinese victory. Japan's armored forces face a bit of a modernity
problem, with a significant number of Cold War tanks still in its inventory. Historically the
ground forces would only be utilized to retake an island lost by the navy and air force. Or at
least this was the thinking until only recently, when the Japanese constitution was reinterpreted,
yet again, to allow for Japan to field expeditionary forces in the interest of preemptive
self defense, or to respond to requests for aid by allies. This means that for the first time since
the Korean war, Japan's army could be called upon to fight far from home, and this is a bit of
a problem given its relative lack of infantry fighting vehicles and over reliance on armored
transports- vehicles which as Ukraine has shown, cannot do the job of dedicated IFVs and are
very vulnerable on a modern battlefield. Yet the Japanese army makes up
the lion's share of its military, and Japan has historically put an emphasis on
its army over its naval and air forces. Given that Japan's primary threats are from the air and
sea, this mismatch needs correcting in the near future or Japan risks being unprepared
for a major conflict in the Pacific. Another major problem for all branches of
the Japanese military is its inability to find new recruits. In 2023, the SDF missed
its recruitment benchmark by about 50%, and its turnover rate is extremely high,
with 80% of enlistees in previous years only serving one or two two-to-three year terms.
This is a significant problem for Japan, as it greatly reduces its available pool of
experienced officers in both the comissioned and non-comissioned ranks, and all one has to
do is look at Russia's performance in Ukraine to see the problems that not having enough
professional soldiers and officers can cause. The main problem for Japan is its youth are
opting for far more competitive salaries in the civilian market, a problem shared by pretty
much every modern nation including the US, who's missed its own recruiting quotas
significantly for years. However, Japan faces a unique problem going forward- a
population time bomb. Due to low birth rates, the number of retirees is growing exponentially
versus the number of active workers in the labor pool, putting massive strain on the Japanese
economy and budget both. This is why Japan has put a focus on investing in automation, and
while nations like the US look at military robots as tools to enhance the survivability
and lethality of human soldiers, Japan may be the first nation to field combat robots in
very large numbers out of sheer necessity. To counter the rising Chinese threat, Japan
announced a historical increase in its defense budget, bucking the historical limit of 1% of GDP
with the goal of reaching NATO-standard 2% of GDP by 2027, doubling their 2020 military budget.The
move has prompted protests from segments of the Japanese population, who fear that Japan is
quickly leaving its pacifist roots behind. Japan and the US also announced significant
plans to boost their joint interoperability. Both nations have pledged to cooperate in the
realms of cybersecurity and the space domain, and are exploring ways of further integrating
their militaries in case of war. NATO currently enjoys a unified command structure that
alliance members fall into in case of war, and the US and Japan may be looking at a
way to create a similar capability in the Pacific to more easily and effectively
operate together in time of war. The first steps is the creation of a permanent
joint headquarters to be built in Japan. The two nations have also increased their
coordination in ISR, or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Japan has
welcomed the deployment of American MQ-9 drones to Kanoya Air Base, and the two nations
are making efforts to increase the ability to jointly share and analyze intelligence. The two
powers also expanded the joint use of facilities on Japanese bases and established joint
training areas on Japan's southwest islands. Closer Japanese and US cooperation,
including the shared use of Japanese bases, strengthen's Japanese security, but also puts
it at risk of attack in case of a US war with China over Taiwan. While it's incredibly unlikely
that Japan wouldn't back a US war over Taiwan, the choice is all but gone now that US forces
will have even more access to Japanese bases. This puts Japanese bases squarely in the
crosshairs of Chines counter-force assets, as China cannot allow the US to have any toe hold in
the Pacific if it's to win the battle for Taiwan. In many ways, while Japan's security is bolstered
by closer military ties with the US, it also means that Japan's die is cast in a future Sino-American
conflict, and this is deeply troubling for many Japanese people who fear that their nation's
days as a pacifistic power are at an end. Now go check out France's World War III
Plan, or click this other video instead!
