Welcome to Project Poldergeist,
an ongoing series of animated videos that plumb the complexities of life
below sea level. I'm Poldergeist,
and I'll be your host as we peer beneath the surface in the Netherlands
and other coastal regions. Because when it comes to water and the Dutch, there's a lot more going on than meets the eye. The Dutch have been gambling
with the sea for centuries. The land-winnings have been good,
even if there were occasional busts. With storm surge barriers up their sleeves, it seemed like the game could go on forever. But there’s a new game in town. “Come here, big guy. If you like high-stakes
gambling with a whole new level of risk, this game’s exactly what you’re looking for.” Let’s check out the Dutch gambling profile
What are their strengths? An integrated water defense system
a dedicated money stream a fleet of world class
engineers, scientists and architects. And a whole lot of attitude:
“We live in the safest delta on earth. Our dikes will protect us.”
That attitude may not be a strength. What about their weaknesses?
26% of the country is below sea level. An additional 34% is vulnerable to river flooding.
They’re so confident in their technology,
the public tends to forget about risk. And that’s before we add in climate change. Scientists can not rule out the possibility of
2 meters of sea level rise by 2100. Or 5 meters by 2150. FIVE METERS. All eyes are on the Dutch as they place their bets. “So big guy, what's your wager?” “1,000,000 new housing units in 10 years. And we’re going to build them in vulnerable areas, like here and here.” Now that’s what I call raising the stakes. Not just because they place even more people at risk. What they’re really doing
is raising the stakes against themselves! New developments limit their ability to adapt. They leave no room for higher and wider dikes. They crowd out space for storing excess water.
If dikes fail in densely populated, low-lying areas,
mass evacuation may not be possible and buildings could be too low
for heads to stay above water. What are the Dutch thinking?!! To understand,
we have to peer beneath the surface. Remember “too-big-to-fail”? In 2008, American banks were teetering on the brink. One of them sank. The government bailed out the rest. They were “too big to fail.” What if “too-DEEP-to-fail” is the new unspoken Dutch gambling strategy? “The more assets we put in risky areas, the more likely
it is the government will protect us! It’s the perfect bet. We’re guaranteed to win!” Okay.
But exactly how will the government protect you? The current plan is to raise dikes in anticipation of 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100. And they’re well behind schedule. They’ll need something more drastic than that. Maybe they’ll raise the stakes and build a monumental sea wall
in front of the Dutch coast? A string of interconnected
barrier islands, new land winnings, bustling with activity,
fossil-fueled pumps at full throttle expelling the Rhine
and the Maas into the North Sea. But won’t the sea just sneak in around the German and Belgian coasts? Maybe, just maybe without admitting it to themselves–the
Dutch are betting on something else. Mega problems call for mega solutions. A Dutch oceanographer came up with
an idea he calls NEED the Northern European Enclosure Dam. He hopes we’ll never need it.
Imagine this: a dam that runs from France to England
and from Scotland to Norway. Enclosing the entire North Sea
and the Baltic to boot. Fortress Europe. To build it requires all the sand
the world uses in a year. ALL THE SAND.
It’s technically and financially feasible. Politically iffy.
Diplomatically dubious. Ecologically disastrous.
Humanly bankrupt. Is this really the path the Dutch are on? Can they still retreat
from “too-deep-to-fail” thinking and place bets in safer locations? Here are some reasons to be hopeful. Research institutes and designers have added
new strategy cards to the deck. The Delta commissioner called for rules
that make it difficult to place bets in vulnerable places. The government created a new cabinet
post for housing and spatial planning and appointed a dapper gentleman
who knows a thing or two about shoes regardless of whether they are dry or wet. And families are thinking twice
about where they want to live. Any way you look at it, climate change is in the cards
and there is a lot at stake. Will the Dutch play a winning hand?
We’ll be watching… I'm Poldergeist. You know where to find me. I'll be right here peering beneath the surface. Because when it comes to water and the Dutch, there's more going on than meets the eye.
