Is Now The Time to Buy Disney Vacation Club?

foreign episode of the DVC show I am Paul Krieger and I am joined this week by my lovely wife Amy Krieger and also Marissa valatin um and Marissa has a kind of a new title since the last time she joined us she is now the vice president of global marketing and sales for World of DVC so congratulations Marissa and thank you for joining us yeah glad to be here so um this week we're going to sort of dive into talking about whether or not now is the time to purchase Disney Vacation Club it's a question that we get quite often from people um as they're considering maybe a Disney Vacation Club purchase and they see sort of deals come and Deals go and different things like that sort of maneuver around but uh before we really get into that one quick reminder is that if you love our content here please subscribe to our YouTube channel and follow us over on dvcfan.com but most importantly show some love to our sponsors at the world of DVC DVC resale Market if you're looking to buy a Disney Vacation Club resale contract that's going to be the place for you or if potentially you're looking to sell your contract you can reach out to the experts over there Monera Financial will help you with purchasing that DVC resale contract they've got some amazing financing options to make that a more affordable purchase for you and then DVC rental store if you're looking to try before you buy maybe try out some different Resorts they're going to help you by getting you into a Disney Vacation Club Villa or if you're looking to maybe rent your own points if you're not going to use those this year and you need some cash for those so all of those three def definitely great opportunities and show some love to those companies and also I just wanted to put out a quick reminder annual dues those payments uh are due as of January 15 18th and then they will be deemed late on February 14th what happens in that month in between I have absolutely no idea I don't think we've ever it's just a grace period yeah yeah kind of like you know like a credit card grace period or something like that I don't know so pay him by then if you don't then I believe they restrict access to your account so pay your dues yeah our experiences that normally well not personal experience um no we do have personal experience when we bought our Boardwalk contract direct remember we didn't realize that there were dues owed from like that from the close they did they didn't tell us yeah and so we closed and we didn't realize it and then all of a sudden we got the wrecks that said you know and so when we called we realized oh we didn't realize we still owed I stand correct we have personal experience it was an accident yeah normally I think that happened somewhere around like March 1st so if you start seeing Rex pop up when you're trying to to log in around March 1st most likely you haven't paid your annual dues but do it now get it out of the way we always recommend you know discard it discounted Disney gift cards is the way to go to save yourself save you so I can't talk today so yeah or you can do the monthly option but you need to have that set up by now I think yep and last but certainly not least um if you don't like the lovely backdrop here of my home we do hope to be back in the studio here in a couple weeks with some new episodes with the entire panel and all of that so we're excited to get back in the studio as part of the new year but in the in between period here we decided to you know we didn't want to leave you hanging with no content so you get us um but as I mentioned earlier uh Marissa has joined us today and um I think it's a great topic to really start the new year of you know is now the time to purchase that Disney Vacation Club contract and we came up with a list of about five things that we think are sort of uh things to consider as to whether or not they're going to move the needle and in what direction they might move them so that you can make that decision and I think the first one is uh something we've really not talked about on this show too much yet I know Pete has discussed it on the Tuesday show but um you know the the big news that came out of November Bob Iger is back at the head of the Walt Disney World company and um what does that mean for Disney Vacation Club and what does that mean for you know potentially prices and things like that um Marissa any initial thoughts there yeah I think previously there was that kind of disappointment with Disney and so you found a lot of people selling or even more willing to negotiate I still think we're kind of in that interim period where hey it looks like things are really looking up for Disney when you take in consideration like Iger and all the new changes even the little things we continue to see come out in Disney news have all been so positive so I think that will have that effect again anything with the resale market usually takes about three to six months to realize in terms of pricing so I think right now is that time where you go hey if things are looking up for you in Disney and you're wanting to come back it's probably a good time to jump on before people start to go hey this is really positive the vacation frenzy and you'll probably start to see that in price increases in the next like three to six months yeah it's it's like the honeymoon period essentially so like like you said um you know I think everyone you know there's still that positive vibe there's still a lot of questions and stuff like that as to what it necessarily means but you know it generates that excitement because I know that um you know at least you know over at DVC rental store and stuff like that we we heard a lot from members who were dissatisfied with a lot of the stuff that were happening during the jpeg era and a lot of people were renting those renting their points because they just didn't want to go to Disney they didn't feel good about it and now we've got sort of those those good feelings coming back to us and I assume you guys saw a lot of the same stuff over at resale Market with that right and that's why a lot of people were selling and again even some of them have already made that decision that they are selling so if you see kind of that positive light and go that's probably going to continue it is a good time to jump on before we start to see that effect prices um not to fully derail us here but Amy do you think that anything significant is going to change with Disney Vacation Club now that Bob iger's back oh gosh um I you know it's it's so hard to tell everything right now is just is morale you know like we're seeing uh employee morale increase since since ball Baggers come back um but you know obviously one of the things that we're hoping that changes soon is they will affect TVC members is the return of annual passes so originally when they went away we were told during those like data releases from Disney that they were coming back sometime in in in within the year and that never happened I don't think we saw them at all right in 2022 um as new annual passes so a whole year has passed except for the glitch right now I don't think yeah I don't think anyone ever you were successful in the glitch please comment down below but um but anyway so so it's a new year now so hoping hoping we see that and then something else that a lot of DVC members have have spoken out about and and we saw this at the condo association meeting was the park pass system and how they felt about that and in making DVC membership aware of those feelings so I'm I'm hoping that you know maybe we see some some changes there that have a positive effect you know for DVC members yeah we talked a lot about that in our 2022 year in review show which is the last show before this I think that we did and those were the two big things that we were hoping for for 2023 you know annual passes park passes and so it's not necessarily Disney vacation club-esque but it's it affects it affects how members use their points and stuff like that um Marissa any initial thoughts there yeah I mean I kind of think the same I think a lot of people are holding their breath for annual passes so hopefully that comes back and I think this year will be a really true tell of what that kind of that vacation feels like that vacation frenzy because I think even for us if we look at like sales of resale or we look at people renting points if we're comparing like 2020 2021 2022 we're not getting the same numbers that we were in normal trends of like 2019. so hopefully Disney's going back to kind of that 2019 numbers and saying hey what was working and maybe going back to some of those benefits from then too yeah yeah really sort of treating everything here as as like a little bit of a reset now that now that we're Beyond uh the pandemic and all of that kind of stuff um speaking of which that kind of segues us a little bit into our our second reason why now might be the perfect time to purchase a Disney Vacation Club contract and that's because there are more listings than ever uh more listings of people selling than there have been in the past two years and I you know I just jumped on DVC resale markets website just for you know to throw out a number there are 762 active listings currently available for buyers to browse and make some offers on um and Marissa you know I I think that means that these buyers or buyers have some opportunities to make some lower offers and sellers are maybe willing to wheel and deal a little more yeah I think we're very much still in a buyer's market and so that's a great time if you've been saying hey I want to buy you you ideally want to buy in a buyer's market for a couple reasons one to your point sellers are more willing to negotiate prices are adjusting because there are more listings if we go back to like the end of 2020 and pretty much 2021 we were struggling at DVC resale Market to keep 100 listings on the site as soon as something would come on it would go out and so to have 700 plus really puts that into the buyer's hands of having that negotiation but also finding that perfect contract where maybe if you were looking a year or two ago you might have settled and said this one might work in terms of points or available points or price now you can be picky and say hey I really want this one or if you're a member looking to add on maybe you're not compromising on getting a second you share you can now find that add-on that matches the exact Resort and you should that you're looking for so I think for buyers it allows you to be more picky in finding that perfect contract and then also also having kind of the upper hand in negotiation do you wish we had waited for our grand cow I don't want to talk about it I like the worst time which is like April like Peak or I think it was January right it was like Peak um and and some of the prices I'm seeing you know for Grand cal are so good right now you know compared to what they were when we bought and and even just other Resorts like you know I see a lot of those coming across my desk you know doing the financing and I'm thinking oh that's an offer wow that's a really low offer and then I look and like no never mind they have an accepted offer that is an awesome price and so it's just yeah we're seeing contract after contract of just really good prices right now um as well as sellers you know paying closing costs and things like that sometimes I think a lot of times people wait and say like well I'm gonna just wait for the market to like crash right and we saw that a lot in 2020 where 2020 it was a really sweet spot to buy especially when Disney had closed the parks down because they weren't buying back and write a first refusal so not only were you taking advantage of sellers being more willing to negotiate you were also passing Rover but a lot of people were like well I'm gonna wait it out I'm gonna wait it out it might crash and then of course as we all know it didn't and the the demand increased the prices increased listings decreased so I think whenever we kind of hit that sweet spot which is right now I would say it's not like a great idea to keep waiting because there's so many factors that are out of our control with right of first refusal you never know when those will shift and change so right now is kind of that sweet spot if you've been saying hey I'm waiting for that time this is probably one of your best opportunities I think yeah that's really why we bought when we did like it was the perfect contract at the perfect time it made sense for us we didn't you know but it just and and waiting any longer at that point you know maybe we would have been maybe we'd still be waiting to find that exact Grand cow contract because again it was Grand cal that we were looking for at that time and so you know that's a needle in a haystack sometimes to find a smaller Grand contract yeah I haven't seen another contract like that you know between 50 and 75 points we wanted a little more so yeah I can't be doing that it's a great contract um and it's like the perfect amount of points for for four nights you know a year you know so it's awesome yeah but I mean you know it it is a time to buy because you know I was just looking at um you know the December 2022 average prices so when we bought what month was that that was like I didn't say it was January it was it was like January so like 291 to 301 was your average price uh for Grand cal at that time and now we're down to around uh 243 per point at Grand cal so um there is a smaller sample size so it's not always the greatest um comparison but it's definitely you know it's moving downward and so um I think that's sort of been the trend with a lot of these and that sort of pivots us again into our our next point which is that um you know um there's been a lot of move movement when it comes to average prices on the resale market and a lot of those are trending downward which is a great opportunity again for buyers that are looking to snag a good deal at this point in time Marissa we did some math on this I think a couple minutes ago and we were looking at like April of 2022 versus now and about it I think it was a 12 percent um you know decrease over that period of time in terms of the overall Blended average of all all resorts and so most of those are heading in a downward Direction and again I have to assume that buyers can take advantage of that yeah and I think you had pulled up the numbers if we go back to April 153 was the average price per point when we look at Blended average and if we look at December the Blended average is now 135 per point so again that's going to be over kind of the span of multiple Resorts but I think to your point we haven't seen prices kind of decrease in that overall average now there's some factors right so our 2042 resorts are less than 20 years so inevitably those are going to kind of start to trickle down in terms of price which again if you've been waiting for like a beach club or Boardwalk this is the perfect time to buy it at really really great prices um but also overall the market has shifted and I think we kind of saw like an over inflated average price per point when we look at kind of that Revenge vacation uh if we call it like 2020 through 2022 it was kind of that like let's go back whatever the price is we're going and so now I think we're kind of going back to like where is that reality lie so I don't think it's like the sky is falling in terms of like I don't think it's going to keep on just dipping down but on it I do think that we're kind of going back to like hey let's remove kind of that inflation from the Revenge vacation look at reality yeah and I think that's you know most businesses are doing that when they're evaluating what happened the past two years you literally gotta grab those two years and throw them in the dumpster and light them on fire because it's like there's just so many abnormalities as to what occurred and to your to your point I like I love the term Revenge vacation because it's like the revenge against the pandemic like I'm going back and I'm gonna enjoy myself and spend my money and it's like um you know we saw a lot I I think that you know we saw a lot of stuff that happened during that period of time from people uh getting getting money that they were saving up that they normally would spend on their yearly vacations and stuff like that um you know there were incentives from the government and stuff like that um and and so all of that money added up to a lot of people buying Disney Vacation Club at that point in time which really then resulted in sort of that reduction in listings because people were buying them up as fast as you guys could basically put them on the board I think right and I think so many people I think Vacation Club just made so much sense because it was like well everybody who goes and looks at Disney Vacation Club usually looks at it on vacation and then says I'm going to do this on my next vacation so you had so many people to your point with that extra vacation money on top of like wanting to kind of Imagine they were on vacation so this is the best way to say I don't know when I'm going back but I know I'm going back at some point yeah I wonder how many of us took like dream vacations during during the pandemic times and all of that stuff um and in terms of prices as well I think it's it's good to point out you know we just saw a a large price increase across all Disney Vacation Club properties for direct sales so purchasing directly through Disney Vacation Club most Resorts I think went up about ten dollars per Point several went up five dollars per point and I I think it's also important to sort of talk to the direct members out there or the direct people people that are potentially looking to purchase Direct in the near future now is the time to buy DVC for that reason but because prices are most likely not going to go in the other direction when we talk direct Disney Vacation Club purchases there are from time to time incentives and stuff like that that we see hit but to predict where that's going to go one month or one quarter to another is very hard to do so you know I I've had people reach out to me before where it's been like do you think I should take advantage of the incentives being offered now directly through Disney Vacation Club or should I wait for the next round of incentives and normally the answer to the question is I I would I would do it rather than wait because you just don't know what that next round of incentives is going to be really or do it right before they expire and yeah and then you'll have that 10-day waiting period if you if they have better incentives then you could resend and re-buy but maybe he's playing the system over here very rarely like we saw with that Grant Floridian promotion but they went out from like almost no promotion to like a crazy promotion for Grant Floridian when it first launched but very rarely do they have like one live product and then switch the promotion to where like the next one is like significantly better usually it's slightly worse um I think where to your point Paul too of like if we look down the pipeline if you look at like Polynesian right an extremely popular DVC location and then you look at Disneyland Tower my gut says that if you're gonna do anything take advantage of the Grand Floridian while it's out there now because those two will probably Spike up so much interest and that that'll probably come with a nice price increase it's like they're they're kind of making their increases now to get up to where they want them to be when they launch those new Resorts yeah and we should expect to begin to see you know um some thoughts of that probably by I want to say by the end of the second quarter um of of 2023 you know I expect probably somewhere in Q2 2023 is when we'll probably see sales begin for the Disneyland Tower as long as it's still progressing uh like it's supposed to be and then they're most likely going to open that probably in the fall to early winter of this year so it'll be interesting to see but yeah those between Disneyland Tower and Nepali you know those are just going to continue to push those prices higher as well so if you are considering Direct that's definitely a reason to do so and that also piggybacks a little bit off of resale right Marissa like that that's gonna potentially drive those resale prices up since DVC has raised their direct prices as well right and if the market does as it normally does like I think if we look back and say okay let's go back to 2017 2018 2019 and look at Trends if you look at like January through April that's usually the busiest time of year in terms of like there's a good amount of sellers but there's also a lot of buyers and usually by the time that we hit Spring it becomes and flips more of a seller's market so if we follow the normal Trends and that happens along with Disney continuing to raise prices which again whenever Disney does something it takes about three to six months for the resale Market to kind of realize that so if we say hey Disney's raising prices and it usually flips in Spring to more of a seller's market than I would expect resale prices are probably going to start to increase as we hit like spring into summer yeah and that's that's definitely what we've seen before so hopefully we're going to be continuing to be on the right normal not to be any road bumps um yeah just sort of reiterates why you know now is definitely the time to be considering that purchase if you've been sort of him hawing around about it and uh going back and forth um last but not least that we threw out here is I'm obviously right of first refusal uh or Rover as we call it is always significantly impacting sort of how uh people um that are looking to buy um have success in that and for those of you that are not familiar with right of first refusal essentially if someone is looking to sell their Disney Vacation Club contract and they fire up find a buyer whatever that price is that they agree to that they're going to purchase that contract is um Disney Vacation Club has the right of first refusal or the first option to essentially purchase it back at that same price so it's a process that any sort of uh resale sale goes through and Disney Vacation Club can just sort of say I like that that's mine I'll take that um and then you have to start over from scratch and 2022 on the whole was off the charts in terms of write a first refusal we saw the highest uh Row for numbers in the I want to say Marissa correct me if I'm wrong in the history of DVC resale Market essentially on the year um so it was in a very aggressive year and a very frustrating year most likely for most buyers during that period of time but the past two months have been a different story um the past two months we have had a grand total of uh count them eight whopping eight um uh write a First refusals by Disney so it's significantly slowed down it seems to have just focused on Copper Creek the past two months um is there a reason for that or is it a season out of it I think some of it is seasonality like end of the year numbers but Marissa what do you think so Disney's calendar system works October to October so normally we do see that slow down in October because their new budget just flipped over and they don't necessarily want to like spend all of their budget for the year however we've never seen this extreme to where they went from like buying 20 to 30 what was selling on the market to like practically nothing and then also like Copper Creek is not their normal Buy-Back Resort usually like their top three are Old Key West Animal Kingdom Saratoga so this is by far the strangest pattern we've ever seen um I think this is probably in my opinion the most significant reason to buy now because again if we look back the only time we've ever seen it this low really in kind of the history of the resale Market was when they did shut down during covid so if you're saying hey I'm kind of waiting on the fence looking for a time to buy the fact that not only can you snag low prices sellers are willing to negotiate but you have a lot of certainty that you're probably going to get that pass right of first refusal and again you go back to like those popular Resorts like Bay Lake Tower Disney was buying back in the mid 180s per point on right of first refusal so you it was almost impossible to buy a baelic tower I had a guest who tried eight times to get a Bailey Tower throughout a first refusal versus now not only can you snag prices maybe in like the 160s 170s but you have a really good amount of certainty that it's probably going to get passed right at first refusal and then again same Resorts like Boardwalk or Beach Club where we're seeing really pretty dramatic price decreases and then having that peace of mind as well I think um I I had a Facebook message from someone just the other day and there's no period in time in which right of first refusal is not going to be stressful um and uh the the lady that reached out to me was looking for the December uh ratifirst refusal report that DVC resale Market puts out every month and uh and was like what are the numbers looking like because she actually was one of the four copper Creeks that was bought back so like I felt so bad it was like um you know oh like you almost made it like it and and you know the the writings on the wall that things are down but then to have you have yourself sort of be that one that they still take um yeah so hopefully she's more successful know she's back in the process she's got another one in rofer right now so good luck to her on that one and you know like he said like um I you don't know when this uh We've we've called it before uh and in this in this month's roafer report I actually said um you know we call it the rofer monster and I feel like the Rover monsters in hibernation at the moment and it's just a question of whether or not it's gonna wake back up anytime soon um and so it's it's definitely a reason why if if you want this to me maybe a smoother process for you no promises but um you know it's definitely why now is going to be the time to purchase it I wish we were in the market okay no don't get any ideas yeah Marissa's like give me a call it'll be fun um Marissa any last thoughts or anything like that on you know why why it would be a great time for a buyer to be considering Disney Vacation Club and uh um you know looking to purchase uh within the next month or so yeah I mean in general as we've all known and I'll talk about it's just if you're coming back to Disney Disney Vacation Club is obviously one of the best ways to come back and of course if you're looking at the purpose of Disney Vacation Club it's to save on future Vacations so resale just kind of takes it one step further but I think all of these reasons and again I think for me personally the biggest reason that if I were in the market to buy that would kind of push me to say hey why now versus later is really that right at first refusal because all of these factors they could Trend out maybe for another month or two kind of if we're going off of normal pattern but you have absolutely no idea when Disney's going to turn around and say hey let's start buying those back so I think if I were a buyer in this market that would be my biggest motivation and again the the great thing is our team is super educated on all this we all have Disney cast member experience so reach out to our team if you're looking for something specific they can really kind of help guide you towards hey this is a great option or what's the difference between getting a contract maybe that's loaded in points or getting something fully stripped out depending what you're looking for yeah yeah and and you know I I always say this like you know give the caveat like we work for World of DVC I work for DVC rental store Amy work from an era Marissa works for DVC resale Market but before all of that you know I didn't even know this until we started getting involved with the company and all that kind of stuff that one of the resale purchases I made a long time ago was DVC resale marketing and I worked with Derek and it was a wonderful experience so um you know I think I think that speaks volumes to you know I've lived that customer Journey uh before actually joining the team here and so um definitely an amazing place that's going to help you get the education that you need and I think that's the biggest thing is you know it's part of what we stand for here at DBC fan as well which is we want to educate our members we don't want you to purchase this product and then just have no idea how to use it because honestly when Disney Vacation Club sells it to you directly that can tend to be the case like they provide you a little bit of guidance and stuff like that but they don't really care if you really know how to use it or stuff like that and I think we invest um you know between DVC resale Market world of DVC DVC fan you know we all invest a lot of time time and effort into educating members because we want you to be able to go on those magical vacations and experience that yourself so I really think that speaks volumes to to all of it um any other thing your blog too Paul and and for people who haven't had the chance to check out our blogs on DV series on Market but Paul does a Blog and I believe you post them in the DVC fan Facebook group but Paul does a Blog on write a first refusal each month and on average sales and I think that's that to me is probably your most useful tool when you're looking as a buyer because you can kind of get a gauge on like where's reality versus what the listed prices are and then obviously like with rata first refusal it's going to be a very small blog or chart for that one but you can say if you are in the market for Copper Creek what what does that look like yep yep and we're also going to put together a little bit of a Blog sort of walking through these these different steps of this process because I think it's important to sort of put some pen to paper and sort of walk people through what we're seeing maybe give more finite examples and stuff like that than we've given here in this uh in this episode because you know we could talk numbers we could talk all those things for a long time so be on the lookout for that over at DBC resale market and we'll also make sure to share that with DVC fan as well but um definitely a great time to buy Disney Vacation Club and uh I think if you're if you're looking to do it you definitely will not regret it um Amy and I have never looked back uh in this process at all so Marissa thank you so much for joining us this week um it's been fun and hopefully educational to those potential buyers that are out there right now yeah thanks for having me yeah and um yeah if you guys enjoyed this video please stay tuned uh in the upcoming weeks for more content from us we've got some stays coming up in the in the upcoming months we're planning to try to get to like Boulder Ridge and check out that refurbished room once it's been finished and get you a room tour of all that we recently just purchased uh um published a room tour um by Amy that uh was of the Old Key West uh Deluxe studio and so uh be sure if you've not been able to catch that or check that out to do so but uh that'll do it for this episode of the DVC show uh we hope you enjoyed it and we will see you all next time

Channel: DVC Fan

Views: 16,506

Keywords: disney vacation club, dvc, disney resorts, dvc fan, world of dvc, disney, disney parks, disney world, walt disney world, buying dvc, purchasing dvc, dvc resale, dvc rental

Id: WeimRDSOLtc

Length: 30min 43sec (1843 seconds)

Published: Mon Jan 09 2023