Is Ireland Heading for Reunification?

this video is brought to you by brilliant as Shin fain's Michelle O'Neal became first minister of Northern Ireland in early February a historic first she said she anticipated a referendum on Irish Unity within the next 10 years separately the party's president Mary Lou McDonald said a United Island was within touching distance believing a referendum will be held by 2030 while not quite as short a timeline as the one from Star Trek the Irish unification of 20 24 their comments and the context of shin fain's success on both sides of the Irish Border have brought the question of Irish reunification under the spotlight so in this video we're going to explore how a referendum could actually happen and what the polls shifting demographics political Sands and more say about the prospect of a United [Music] Island before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and bringing the the Bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos okay to avoid any confusion let's quickly Define some terms used in this video when we say republican or nationalist we're referring to the side that wants Northern Ireland to leave the UK and form a United island with the rest of irand in contrast when we talk about unionists or loyalists we mean those who want Northern isand to stay part of the UK now before we get on to Northern Island's future we do need to go through a bit of context but this is not a history video so for the sake of time this is obviously not going to be a fully comprehensive run through of the history anyway back in 1921 after the 2 and a half year Irish war of independence the Anglo Irish treaty was signed establishing the Irish free state which would go on to become the Republic of Ireland but as you'll know this didn't cover the entire island of Island the British had carved out six counties in the Northeast which became Northern Island that were majority Protestant and unionist largely as a result of colonization from Great Britain in previous centuries though it's worth pointing out that these counties still had a pretty sizable Catholic nationalist minority now let's skip forward to the late 1960s which is generally when historians agree is the beginning of the troubles the frustrated Catholic minority in Northern Ireland launched a civil rights movement demanding an end to things like housing and workplace discrimination as civil rights marches were V ly suppressed by the overwhelmingly Protestant Royal olster constabulary as well as being attacked by Protestant loyalists riots erupted in 1969 in places like Belfast and Derry londonerry and the British army was deployed under operation Banner to counter the growing disorder and sectarian violence however things only escalated the provisional Ira began its armed and violent Insurgency against British rule and on the other side loyalist paramilitaries like the olster defense Association and olster volunteer Force also stepped up their violent campaigns more than 3 and a half thousand people would be killed more than half of them civilians over the next three decades before the Good Friday or Belfast agreement was reached basically ending the troubles and marking the transition from an armed struggle for a United Island to a political one so politically speaking how could Irish reunification be achieved well the Belfast agreement actually established and sets out the process the agreement recognizes the right of the people of the island of Island to bring about a United Island subject to the consent of both the Republic and Northern Ireland meaning so-called border polls I.E referendums would need to be held on both sides of the border so when and how would these referendums come about well the Northern Ireland act 1998 which basically implemented the provisions of the Belfast agreement in UK law states that a border pole would be called by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would Express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a United Island it's not exactly clear what the requirement for this would be so it's effectively up to the discretion of the Secretary of State maybe they'd call one if there was consistent polling suggesting a majority in favor of reunification or if voter is elected a nationalist majority to the northern Irish assembly if the of state did call a referendum then the Irish government would presumably arrange one for their citizens too so how are demographics and attitudes shifting in Northern Ireland there have been some notable Milestones recently suggesting things might be going in the direction of reunification the 2021 census revealed that Northern Ireland for the first time in its history had more Catholics than Protestants now it's worth pointing out that religion doesn't directly translate into political preference as as much as it used to in Northern Ireland but the census also registered a decline from 40% to 32% in individuals identifying solely as British while those identifying solely as Irish increased from 25% to 29% accompanying this is the fact that in the 2022 Northern Irish election shinan emerged as the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly earning them the right to nominate the first Minister here's LS Goodall then at the BB explaining the significance and the caveat on Election night Shin f a nationalist party has topped the poll that has never happened before in the 101 year history of Northern Ireland's existence Northern Ireland was literally designed its borders were designed so that that wouldn't happen so that there would be an inbuilt unionist majority and indeed if you top up the unionist parties they're still on top if you put the dup together and you put the uup together you put the TUV together a relatively new party they still have a plurality of the votes but the fact that you have a nationalist party coming top really does transform the political landscape in Northern Ireland not least because a year later in 2023 Shin faine Won the local elections and in another historic result nationalist parties won a greater share of the vote than unionist parties another factor that could easily add momentum to the Irish nationalist cause is if Shin Fain enters government in the Republic of Ireland where it currently pulls ahead one can imagine that a shinan Le government in Dublin would seek to boost crossborder cooperation and development in a way that might help drive support for reunification this is sort of happening already even without shinan very recently the Irish government announced an 800 million euro package to fund crossborder infrastructure projects the other important realignment that's happening in Northern Irish politics is the growth of the nonsectarian block represented by the alliance party which rejects the Nationalist versus unionist identities and says it doesn't take a position on the Constitutional future of Northern Ireland Alliance is now the third largest party in the northern Irish assembly behind Shin Fain and the Democratic unionist party but what about actual polling for a hypothetical reunification referendum polling does vary but generally speaking the status quo position staying in the UK seems to secure about 50% while Irish reunification gets relative L less support with one recent poll putting support at 39% and another at 30% so evidently there's not majority support for reunification now and therefore not the grounds for referendum now or in the near future but when you consider there is a sizable don't know contingent and considering the growth of the non-sectarian alliance party there is evidently a group of people that are not wedded to either unionism or nationalism and who could potentially be one over meaning that these are the people who will be key to deciding the future of Northern Island's constitutional 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Channel: TLDR News

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Length: 9min 52sec (592 seconds)

Published: Sat Feb 24 2024