Iran and Israel need each other - here's why | Defence in Depth

for the first 3 weeks of this month Israel and Iran appeared to be on the brink of an allout War the world held its breath as the middle east's military superpowers headed towards a configration that would have ignited the entire region and quite possibly triggered World War II don't then just as suddenly it was all over Israel bombed an Iranian consulate Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel but didn't kill anyone then Israel struck back with a bombing raid just small enough for the Iranians to pretend it basically hadn't happened World War III it turned out was more like a duel between 18th century gentlemen both had fired their pistols honor was defended and everyone could go home so what on Earth was Teran thinking in Iran there is really one man who calls the shots that's ayalah Ali K who turned 85 last Friday the same day Israel bombed an Iranian Airbase in Isfahan he's been the Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989 and while he may be old his goup on power is as strong as ever now in theory the role of supreme leader could have been a bit like a British monarch and Authority Above The Grubby realities of day-to-day politics who would consult encourage and advise the elected governments giving a gentle nudge to the tiller to ensure that the religious and moral purity of the Republic making sure it really was an Islamic Republic in practice Mr ham is the real power broker in the country he has the last say on both foreign and domestic policy and all parts of the Islamic Republic's sometimes fra just frankly political and Military machine is subservient to him he has a reputation for sticking to a de ision once he's made it he's not afraid to act ruthlessly in defense of the Islamic Republic at home for example he has no problem unleashing deadly crackdowns on Peaceful protesters on sending the morality police to intimidate and arrest women who dare to question the obligatory hijab even though most Iranians are at best ambivalent about that rule but for all his fiery rhetoric overseas aliam is actually very cautious and risk averse for years he's prided himself on something called strategic patience building up Iran's capabilities while avoiding a premature confrontation with the Great and Small satans Of America Israel let's throw in the United Kingdom as well Mr H has predicted that Israel will be destroyed by 2040 a date that he conveniently will probably not live to see so the idea is to gradually build up Iran's influence and military power across the region beefing up groups like Hezbollah and Lebanon the houthis in Yemen various groups in Iraq ready for the big Showdown now from Tel Aviv that looks very much like you're being surrounded and you can understand why the Israelis would take that threat very seriously from Mr H's point of view he just has to preserve that system and hand it on intact to his successes when he dies he can say here is the axis of resistance you're the guys who are actually going to have to use it now interestingly enough Western officials who've had to deal with Iran will sometimes tell you that in some ways this makes Teran reassuringly predictable H knows what he wants they know what he wants and he sticks to his decisions but the problem with that policy is that at some point patience begins to look like an excuse for inaction or to put it less kindly cowardice just look at the history of the Shadow War over the past two or three decades Israel has run assassination programs against the Reign scientists launched a massive malare attack on its nuclear program it bomb supply routes in Syria and frankly has killed irgc commanders across the Middle East throughout it all Mr hamay has answered demands for a direct response with a call for you guessed it strategic patience now that became a much more difficult line to walk after October 7th and the start of the war between Israel and Hamas as the death toll mounted in Gaza Hardline anti Zionist voices in Teran began to question when Iran was going to do something why aren't we activating hisbah and after the April the first Israeli strike on Iran's Consulate in Damascus nationalist regime supporters who might not really have been that bothered about Israel got in on the act as well one Hardline student group even published an open letter demanding to know exactly where Mr H's red lines were if bombing an Iranian consulate wouldn't make him do something what would so there was a domestic political reason for ordering a dramatic show of strength against Israel and there was also a strategic one Israel's April the first strike on demascus killed the entire irgc command team responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon these are guys who are crucial for the running of Hezbollah crucial for a large part of Iran's operations now for Israel somebody obviously decided that that was a chance that justified taking the risk of bombing a diplomatic compound and breaking a rule that hadn't been broken before so heating back directly at Israel which is what hamay and his advisers decided to do and doing so in considerable force was meant to change the ground walls of the Shadow War if it was a postcard it would have said please can you stop killing our top military commanders and by the way we will do something about it if you don't we've yet to see whether the Israelis accept that polite proposal but Mr H's instinctive caution clearly had not evaporated the result was the April the 14th missile and drone strike Iran's first ever direct and overt attack on Israel itself on a dramatic scale that threatened massive destruction but was also signaled well enough in advance that almost all the Munitions were blown out of the air and in the end it killed no one importantly Hezbollah the ayatollah's greatest weapon was not involved there are other considerations driving Iranian decisions making and probably actually more important than destroying Israel this long-term goal that is meant to happen sometime in the future is the stability and survival of the regime itself public faith in the Islamic Republic is at an all-time low and by the way that is not just western or Iranian dissident propaganda economic mismanagement corruption International isolation has frankly left the regime discredited in the eyes of many Iranians and the signs are everywhere turned out that the last presidential election 2021 was at an alltime low which was clearly a reflection of disillusion with the idea that change can come from the normal processes that the regime can be reformed from within in 2022 the killing of a Woman by morality police sparked anti-government [Music] protests on a scale unseen since the 1979 Revolution which brought the Republic to power in the first place those protests didn't bring down the government and frankly you'd be naive if you thought that the Islamic Republic was going to collapse the day after tomorrow but the more people you talk to about contemporary Iran the more comparisons with the late Soviet Union come up there is a sense that this is a tired project and at some point something could go wrong Mr H hasn't shown much interest in making concessions and in fact it's probably not a coincidence that on the same day Iran struck Israel the morality police launched a fresh Crackdown on women wearing the wrong kind of hijab and that brings us to another element informing Iranian decision-making probably the greatest legitimizing achievement of the Islamic Republic was a war of National Defense Saddam Hussein's unprovoked invasion of Iran in 1980 killed hundreds of thousands of people it pulled the country together and it left a deep scar on the generation that survived it so there's this big question hanging over this confrontation with Israel would a war rally Iranians to the flag or would it be the last straw that would see them finally overthrow a regime they're already fed up with and that's not an experiment Mr H seems Keen to carry out but the experience of the Iran Iraq war informs Iranian thinking in other ways the irgc's obsession with Iles reflects how Iran felt it was abandoned by the International Community and it was out rocketed by Iraq in that war and the ction that Mr H and even senior irgc commanders show in the shadow war is partly informed by a memory of just how horrific a real conventional fullscale War could be many analysts fear that the next generation of hardliners who maybe don't have that memory will be less restrained when it comes to the risks of conflict and funnily enough if you speak speak to the people who really study Israel and Iran they will tell you there's a very strong parallel here between Ayatollah hamay and Benjamin Netanyahu you can take back with you a message to the tyrants of Terran do not test Israel's resolve Mr Netanyahu spent years warning that Iran is an existential threat he's spoken about its nuclear program and apocalyptic terms he's demanded success of American presidents go to war to wipe it out but he has has never done anything so reckless as actually bombing Iran himself like the Ayatollah he's a man who is given to very fiery rhetoric but in practice tends to be very cautious very risk averse when he launched a response on April 19th against Iran it was a very limited strike it hit an Airbase in is vahan which was clearly a symmetrical gesture because the Iranians had managed to hit an Israeli airbase and it was small enough for the Iranian regime to laugh it off which it duely did the bottom line is Israel and Iran both understand that there are huge risks involved in their Shadow war going full scale and running out of War Mr H knows that Israel is a regional superpower for all his talk of wiping it out an attack would see a massive response from both Israel and its allies including the United States and don't forget Israel has nuclear weapons it doesn't admit it has but it has Iran doesn't have a nuclear bomb yet but it does have H which is believed to have a stockpile of about 150,000 Rockets ready to launch from Southern Lebanon and for the Israelis that's a nightmare it would be more than enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system it would cause massive destruction and so these two countries are in a standoff that kind of recalls the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction had Mr Netanyahu decided to risk an all outfight had Mr ham decided it was time to press the Hezbollah button even worse had the adults in the room room senior IDF generals and Veteran Mossad officials in Israel and Veteran hardliners and irgc commanders in Iran being a sidelined by Reckless extremists who actually believ the rhetoric about a fullscale war in the end the adults prevailed this time but the confrontation is still deadly serious for both sides this round is over the Bell is rung and the pugilist are back in their corners but they will be coming out on the canvas again sometime soon defense in-depth is a 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Length: 13min 0sec (780 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 25 2024