Introduction to International Relations: The Weaknesses of Realism

[Music] so the whole notion of trust and cooperation amid a field of uncertainty is what largely defines our last employer or John Mearsheimer back to the future now I signed this article for a number of reasons and I like to end our discussion of realism specifically with this armor if you read it you probably thought to yourself boy I can't believe somebody could be that long predicting how the world would work you know so you gotta think yourself dear traveler wasn't really been back to zero you think john deere genre is one of the most respected scholars in our studies we're still around still publishing was a student's as was the number of other people that we will be reading this semester under the late great cat Walt's beer cider is no fool so why did I sign this article yes his predictions were almost counted them all that's one of the reasons his predictions were wrong but his theory and the rationale behind this predictions aren't necessarily incorrect what I mean by this the article was published around 1990 1991 which means that he was writing this somewhere between 6 to 12 months prior to that so his writing is predictions about what's gonna happen in Europe in a very narrow window of diplomatic change because he's writing this really with two things that we can do one thing already happened and the other thing and get to have this is 1990 what already had what recently have it in your at that time the dissolution of forceful apps that have to certainly which by extension means the dissolution of look us know around remember however keep that away because that's one of the risk of your summer said we should expand it but what else annex rollerball comes down all right we're all looking at historical events that explain this what were two ended twenty five-year-old I think it's never say that yes yeah Germany were unified yes and with us the Cold War ended see this is a bit difficult because we tend to think that the Cold War and then the Soviet Union falling apart are two sides of the same coin no cold war ends at the end of 1989 beginning of 1990 which means the Soviet Union withdraws its support for almost communist regimes so the Cold War with all those communist satellites East Germany Czechoslovakia Poland Hungary Bulgaria Romania Yugoslavia won't get we're all come to an end however and this is the weird thing Soviet Union sometimes until 1991 Soviet Union as a communist state survives for another year and a half two years now mere stragglers writing this article that in this very narrow period so keep the predictions that he's making are as bold as they are proud of that why am i mentioning all of this because of what Mearsheimer is predicting will happen in Europe what near Shimer is predicting the next 10 to 20 years will happen based upon what he feels has already happened to the next number one and here he's right on the money here he's playing to waltzes bipolar multiple beautiful or structure Mearsheimer says that the Cold War was ironically the longest stretch of peace and stability that Europe had seen in more than a century now mind you that was largely because there were two large armies pointing guns at each other and not only that they were armed with the one weapon that kind of makes you important in the room altogether now nuclear weapons okay so in a in an ionic structure the body polar system between the United States and Soviet Union was extremely successful because there were no wars that were fought in Europe at least endured okay no weapons were fired no country was invaded the bipolar system therefore is stable because of not only an equal military balance between the two sides but also nuclear deterrence a couple of other things that was for the most part widely understood during the Cold War is that is that military balance was visibly seen between two military alliances Warsaw Pact was in the East and what was for the West negative still around today attack on one is an attack on all this lines was also seen by me trimaran dollars as a great way of keeping Germany well straight jacketed for a while because left to their own devices Germany will at some point be like at the time was indeed it all stick your clock whatever fifty years Germany invades France okay the Cold War period basically kept Americans in the watch was engaged the turns down the French quiet and the bridge runs long as this system endure okay stability and status quo is guaranteed okay so even though the system was hard for peaceful ironically enough enough weapons and this is the second this is those pro second immunized raised room right everybody gets a gun nobody's gonna get shot tactic okay this is what the NRA is trying to do until everything comes crashing down until it all more annex so the Soviets do one thing door expecting them to what the hell is the fact it's one thing that communist countries would collapse it's another thing for the Soviet Union specific Gorbachev to decide I'm gonna take the Red Army out of Eastern Europe I'm pulling my forces back to the Soviet Union hey communist countries over there you're on girl if you can survive I'm surprised but if you can't well find something find a federal turn it into socialism the implementation all the Warsaw Pact is the first thing that year Simon looks at and says the way NATO has achieved especially NATO has achieved its goal NATO's goal was protection of Western and west central girl from an imminent Soviet invasion Soviets are now reducing their their their drunken truce Warsaw Pact is disbanded so the first thing that beer sniper says is NATO should be disbanded which really oh my god well it makes complete sense because NATO achieve its goal there is no more need for NATO in Europe and if there's no more need for Europe and there's no then there's no more need for the United States to be as powerful and as prominent as it is in Europe and you can't be thin to yourself Wow really it's haven't rivers would say absolutely because as far as beer cider was concerned the United States would immediately go from being seen as a protector and a force for security to a hegemon that is they're often invited right French bricks the Italians maybe the Germans would look to the Americans Hey the Russians took their toys away go take yours and go home thanks but there's 45 years we don't need you anymore the minute the United States no no and we need American here right it's like it goes from okay so your name is now moving there Germany has reignited and here's probably the one place where he really goes up again is like well Germany reunited they'll probably wanna I don't know bless their muscles again so you know what we want to do just to beat them to it's because they're gonna they're gonna they're gonna forget it anyway because those things then we should just give them nuclear weapons just give jury nuclear weapons it because it'll make them feel better alright because here you are right the middle of Europe they got friends over here with nuclear labs which is not funny yeah Russia over here what do clear up that's kind of scary okay you got Rick's over here I don't really give a damn and that's about it so just give the Germans nuclear weapons because they're gonna actually feel much more secure yeah how do I give the baby his torso shut up that's it so get your big nuclear weapons and we'll forgot to say they don't now the formulas so it's not going to be this matter that just give look here and here's just wanted to start off you know sort of like a sign up the game player in there and get my $10 free money to just pass around whatever drink up you know the comic bombs just to get started your because what beer sugar is also saying inspired you to despite all of these crazy predictions makes a transaction driver money whether these days look the end of the Cold War is going to eventually be the end of the bipolar system now a bipolar system is either going to morph into one or the other polarities one of the two all of this three by multi and UE which is the least stable multi how many people think multi raise your hand and by process of elimination let's know how many people is going to be building unit forward is the most dangerous and why is that because when there's only one country yet up everybody wants to knock that if it's a bipolar system you can think to yourself alright I'll accept my second quickstats because you know gang gang awesome awesome good multipolar is certainly less stable and a bipolar system make no mistake about multi polar systems could still ensure stability by easily compliance systems a unipolar system is the least stable about that that's what your shine will be staying to the United States pack up your toys and go because you know what it's gonna happen you America are going to be nobody must be that because doing polar powers don't last long and when they realize that they are losing their leverage human overpowers start like good realness start making a number of precautionary steps to shore up their own security which are almost always going to be seen by everybody else as belligerents so America take a word of advice pack up your things and go home you won't be this duo Lapidus left you might even be missed you think easily missed but if you stay they don't want me to go so by default meters Hector says you rivers gonna come towards a multipolar environment once again Soviet Union is going to be one great friend is gonna be another friend is going to be that you know on a good day and they really work hard at it it was good of you fourths okay Italy is either the worst first great country or though that's the second big country whichever one you know learning to Italy decides that we're a secondary country do they walk okay there are awesome is a standard but we don't know do it germs okay good not gonna be happy so okay Germany getting good all right here's your army here's your blonde so you can feel comfortable and Poland look we heard in Eastern Europe as penal currency that's all between Germany and Russia I mean these things are just gonna happen in fact if Germany really wants to I think your honor dimension is horrible if Germany must take back a territory that at Boston College columns are just kind of well Poland sounds like that now it doesn't exist so you know I'm going to display some cities so strong doing this room doing the we were talk about this so it's not you know it's not worth spending that much time the notion of nuclear proliferation near Schneider was correct in predicting that more countries would gain nuclear power that much is certain course he didn't guess which countries were going to begin but he said again Germany is going to and should get nuclear weapons simply because it would eliminate a security dilemma on their side hey Paul was going to be once again for over not maybe so much for territory to certainly influence as a matter of fact that he says Poland might as well just expand that to all of Eastern Europe here you know can he get the way in which Europe is today between verbal left and pointy not right Eastern Europe is the most part he was in there a pluralist Luton get together and start laughing at jokes call them guess Barry we weren't okay Ukraine it's very very word okay so that much is kind of sort of the case America should withdraw from Europe but here's the thing though the Europe of 1990 argues near time very much the same will be very similar to Europe of 1930 that's the title of his article back to the future he's not being like America you're gonna have to leave but it's going to be multipolar it's ones can follow what to be potentially believers especially between Germany if there's another thing Mearsheimer did not predict the Soviet Union collapsed well respected policymakers and scholars and other people would say Soviet Union would go on indefinitely okay 15 minutes prior to the Soviet Union actually collapsing we were all I thought things gonna be around forever nobody and I mean as somebody who saw it on TV how dare can somebody who saw this stuff go down on TV I was actually more surprised at how more generation kidding we had originally I was actually surprised to find out how nuts I was more surprising kind of Tom everybody was as opposed to the whole thing just came down collapsed no one nobody was predicted episode even in the course so with all of that said new Rutgers article does have some importance to us your anger is right on the money Wendy said that the end of one system of power is going to yield one of the other to a bipolar system and the room is not the only ones who are safe but it's generally understood that bipolar system is regarded as the most stable it may not be the most peaceful after remember there's a difference between peaceful and statement the difference between peaceful and statement both imply the lack of war everybody has to be long bipolar system collapses it is natural one of the two powers that remains to be the unipolar bat now you want to be up there you know enjoy that for like oh no oh mama - and then gracefully that elapsed because a unipolar system is the least stable there for multiple is probably going to be very this is America it's a constant evolutionary thing a lot of whole system naturally falls into unipolar a new polar system will invariably produce a multipolar system which arguably arguably we could even say we're in right now 2015 arguably we could say that we're back in a moment baller system united states certainly one of those major powers which then over time once back into a bipolar system but America should be fewer since new your son to keep this era as short as possible and to avoid any ill will between America and its Alice so mere senator is correct when he talks about the relationship between bipolar multipolar and uniform moonshiner is also we have to give him credit for two things one we have to give him credit for playing arenas car and saying Cold War's over Warsaw Pact has moved on therefore it is natural that NATO withdrawals there's no reason for NATO to anymore obviously that's not the case obviously NATO still exists and encompasses almost every former communist country of Eastern Europe NATO actually started doing stuff after the goal NATO switched its goals pretty much after the Cold War ended by trying to argue its continuing existence its continued relevancy there are some countries in Western Europe like France and even German but also friends that have been pushing for a type of united European armed with topping Americans the United States already here are toys so that's just why ruin a good thing we'll talk about that in the midterm the other thing we have to give credit to beer shot before is that he maybe walk out of some cases he's totally broke you know what he's one of the few people that were bold enough to make predictions about where the post-cold war world would good at London what he does not talk about in Europe you know that mention the United Nations he also doesn't mention this other organization a major that had been around for decades when the Cold War ended well know what it is our European Union which at the time anybody know that it was called back then well the European Union is called a European community European team member makes no mention of the European community all like there's one other thing Mearsheimer tends to forget that Germany went through about 45 years of soul-searching now you can kind of forget about this wall comes down all right it's like excited Germans are probably the most pessimistic in Europe at the time well good reasons reason why we're a Germany went through this program there's up okay they know what happens too many lockers right near China is also a great article to news because it highlights everything rather effectively before particular qualities of rinsed now we've been talking about riddles of non-stop now for three class sessions you might think yourself missus and they are meant ribosome has incredibly poor predictive problems realism is stuck in a 20 to 25 year loop everything's from heat so lucidity hey nobody predicted the end of this okay okay I'm not gonna blame realist for that no but realism did not predict the continuity and expansion of it was still around okay let's go live well new travel also did not predict the expansion and the political deepening of the European Union European Union is a critically important institution not only in facilitating democracy but in spreading ideas of cooperation and peace this is something that realism does not really look into something that we start doing next so it's one in Ecuador noting that in addition to be weak on historical subjectivity realism surprisingly enough is weak on human agency even within the understandings of structural realism as Ken Wilson takes into account the individual of the individual mixed decisions based upon his or her commitments and responsibilities to the state which is in relation to all other states of the International wonderful yeah there are times when there are certain people that come to the fore we talked about this last week that make expecting that to happen first of all not all Union Nazi but nobody would have expected more wolf to Mission order calling for the withdrawal of the Red Hawk that's considered to be suicide you can pull the Red Army out your satellite countries in Eastern Europe have little to stand up the same thing is that nobody really predicted that radiating we're 12 get along so bloody well you know in the years that had follows Ravens present and worst his death you know the SKU number people in the United States that are absolutely convinced that Ronald Reagan is the greatest president since Jordan while he's like a god okay oh yeah but Ronald Reagan time to go home Ronald Reagan need to be these people under fire Reagan yeah nothing of that it has been more cooperation with corals that is painfully honest okay ready we could have it as low as he wanted go get your output of been like okay anymore go boots okay because before he was all that mr. Hogan called kare-kare abuse fault okay he was already cutting deal with the poorest well they will drink friends they're not want lemon okay and there's no prediction that certain political values will prevail in this system look the system gives an army it's not okay the Germans would not lose them to marching music they were dancing to David Hasselhoff on the wall okay what I'm trying to make is it's 1990 it's not 1945 it's not 1939 it's not 2500 BC attitudes change memories of war prevent certain actions from being taken and social progress exists one would like to think that after two world wars Germany kind of got met but more importantly than that more than just making fun of German deliveryman city if Germany blogs in to take over Paul I don't even have to take over bulbs they could five poles it's 1990 Germans are not really on sanctions the Germans are coming off of 45 years of the best economic laws out there I have to phone everybody 1939 the Germans are Congress 1990 Oh awesome the Germans are conquer and where'd the county where the Commandant with tanks and guns and bombs and flames they're having two briefcases full of Deutsche marks rhythm five things up yay let's capitalism no and they're not even bringing in the importance of the UN NATO where the European Union - you have to at least make certain that you're not swimming in the deep end they may not be before attainment bodies they're good left us okay NATO has done a fantastic job providing security in Europe what mere sniper gets wrong is that NATO is not an American appendage rather it is a military coalition of which the United States is part of but it is not the only player okay the European Union has done tremendous strides in facilitating economic cooperation between previously belligerent powers the thought of Germany and France go ahead for war today is unthinkable and why is that because if Germany invades France not saying that includes a lot said they were doing but you know what would be the first thing that they would destroy their own economic infrastructure why would you do something and Germany and made rush to get first of all it's a general rule of thumb just don't invade Russia it's just the general rule of thumb there is only one group of people in world history that they and conquer and you have to think these fellas even more badass in the Rockets make the Mambo's the breathing of all the evils to invade and conquer all of Russia even then it was a slog okay patron isn't have to worry about that alright in this beat to invade a spear my impending economic interests you don't need to do that stuff the states may be the primary actors but they're no longer the sole actors and that leads us to our trailers to liberalism this is where you know this is really more or less the tour of waters because if realism can only take us so far then there has to be another field of study then gives us and bitter answers to questions they can cancel hey you want even have to write this down let watch we're going to be starting this pretty much next week but it works to collective ideologies prevail in the international system mere Shriners article indirectly tells us yes incentives are state policies driven by both self-interest as well as a here's one that could really make things interesting presumably very good you guys there are countries out there folks in the preliminary that does a lot of stuff based on what they feel is the greater good not just for self interest now kind of to be mixed together sure Sonia realists finally and this one this right over here could either be the best cynic you were for world peace when the greatest part de jure or perpetuation of war on weightless can the spread of democracy eliminate war can a country become democratic and as such couple belligerent stops Oh the two best countries that we can look at the contained Japan they went from kamikaze to help gain but bombs probably you know students Japanese the Japanese are somehow very weird though and Germany they went from two world wars to a number of World Cups today the refugees into Europe today you take and is there an epicenter everything is one of the most successful democracies have knocked in the world certainly in Europe is Germany belligerent today not really well yeah recent story but economically is a difference where militarily yeah so the discussion also have a wonderful rest of the week [Applause] [Music] you

Channel: Michael Rossi Poli Sci

Views: 8,266

Keywords: political science, international relations, rutgers, rutgers university, realism, cold war, academia, college lecture, foreign policy, john mearschiemer, nuclear arms race, education, michael rossi, history, international studies, security studies, poli sci

Id: akBMB4155aI

Length: 34min 27sec (2067 seconds)

Published: Thu Sep 28 2017