International critique

well welcome to today's talk Sunday evening the 20th of March it looks like the Omicron variant is about to run rampant through China and we'll look at that in context of a few other countries let's start off with a bit of background though before we look at the international situation about Hong Kong now in Hong Kong um the numbers have been remarkably low for most of the pandemic because I've had excellent control measures highly organized Society but now the Omicron variant is basically uh well there's been an extreme wave of Omicron very in Hong Kong now at the moment basically everywhere shut beaches theaters everywhere as basically closed down gyms libraries are shut only two people can meet in public not three or four the strategy so far has been to keep the virus out now this has largely worked in Hong Kong and this is part of the problem because people were looking around there was no cases of covet so a lot of people especially older people didn't bother getting vaccinated because they were doing such a good job of keeping it out why vaccinate against the disease that isn't present but of course we've always known that it's likely to invade any time and of course that's exactly what's happened and the reason there's been such a lot of difficulties in Hong Kong is the vaccination rate especially in the elderly is low that combined with the fact they have had very very little naturally induced immunity because that's the only two Pleasures to get immunity from short-term immunity from the vaccines or we believe longer term immunity from natural infection and they've had neither so that's why they've had such a devastating wave and this is what I'm worried about in China could this same thing happen in China we'll see it's less likely but it's not impossible now there's been trust issues about controls because some people in Hong Kong believe that a lot of the measures that have been taken have been political because of course there's been political turmoil in Hong Kong over the past couple of years which we're not going to go into now but but um people mistrust Authority because they think that things might be done for political reasons rather than for biological reasons residence blocks suddenly cut off so so whole blocks just cut off closed off before everyone's tested so quite Draconian measures in Hong Kong now unvaccinated in the over 80s in New Zealand which has also had very little natural immunity the vaccination rate in the over 80s was 98 so 2 hadn't been vaccinated hence the very low death rates and hospitalization rates relatively speaking in New Zealand while natural immunity hopefully takes over what we'll take is taking over Hong Kong at 66 percent of the overage is not vaccinated so here we have this very large or the remnant of these of course very large what you might call Target area of people that are going to get infected and are likely to get sick especially and even in the younger age groups of course we know there's still fairly high levels of morbidity and potential mortality low levels of natural immunity apparently the Al Jazeera report says they're out of coffins it sounds quite horrendous they're out of space is in morgues and there are stories from the Al Jazeera reporter of body bags on Wars let's hope it's not in that way for very long but um it's been a bad situation in Hong Kong could China go the same way now let's answer that by looking at some some graphics now that orientators generally as well new data confirmed cases of covid-19 per million now um China very low numbers are being reported and on this graphic that's probably still accurate but that is about to change United States and Canada well we know that the testing in Canada is testing in Canada was essentially non-existent so the these this figure Bears no relationship at all really to the total amount of infections we believe in Canada they are still fairly High United Kingdom there has been an uptick and we know that this is genuine because the covered symptom tracker data and the office for National statistic data is showing the same thing so even without defective testing and the fact that a lot of lateral flow tests are not being reported even then we're still seeing this uptick in the UK so that is absolutely genuine Australia cases are going up of course Germany up now Hong Kong and New Zealand let's look at New Zealand uh first of all in blue so a dramatic rise of course as we expected largely protected by a vaccination of course and well no way you can get a real trend from that term who could say which way that's going to go but we're fairly optimistic because New Zealand is now getting huge Omicron exposure generating huge amounts of natural immunity on top of the temporary immunity afforded by a vaccination so I'm pretty optimistic about New Zealand Hong Kong on the other hand had much lowers of vaccination preparation and there was their numbers there they went right up looks like they are going down now which is good looks like they're just coming out of that wave now now if we move on to the the variant now unfortunately our world in data at the moment is not giving us the breakdown between ba1 on the Quran and ba2 Omicron hopefully it's going to start doing that soon we do know quite a bit of it though from uh from background information so United States ba2 will take over in the next few weeks now what this means in the United States is there is going to be an increase in cases if they're able to detect it by testing there's certainly going to be an increase in infections in the United States and unfortunately there will be some hopefully small increase in hospitalizations and uh potentially deaths in the United States as ba2 takes over because it's accelerating the whole thing because the ba2 is basically pretty well as transmissible as measles it's phenomenally transmissible um so that will take over in the states in the United Kingdom ba2 is already the majority um not sure about uh the New Zealand German and Australia data on on ba2 but we see Omicron as well and truly taken over that is for sure no information there on China unfortunately from our world in data but we do know from other sources that Omicron is the problem in China it is the problem it is the infection now the R value again unfortunately China and uh Hong Kong aren't here but there's the R value of one which is neither increasing nor decreasing Canada cases are still going down but of course we know the testing is a joke China well um yeah it's okay it's saying this could certain cases are going down in China but we know we're not we know that we know they're going up United States United Kingdom definitely going up uh New Zealand come down quite nicely Australia is still increasing largely due to the cases in Western Australia which is just uh opened up now share with people who've had initial covered vaccine protocols so China we see Hong Kong so Hong Kong relatively low level the the problem in Hong Kong is not so much the overall lowish rate of vaccination it's the very low rate of vaccination in the older grouping and particularly vulnerable grouping let's cause the higher death rate and high hospitalization rate in Hong Kong that's been the problem there but China so it looks to there like China's pretty near the the top of the pile in terms of vaccination but there's two big butts here one it was first Butters it was quite a long time ago and the second one is it was a cyanovac which does not is not is not as effective um at preventing infection and we believe not as effective preventing hospitalization and death compared to the Western vaccines so um it looks like there could be a problem in China because of the type of vaccine that was used kind of Australia New Zealand Germany United Kingdom Hong Kong United States for vaccination but just to give a bit more information on vaccination this is the situation with uh so that pre that previous one was uh initial initial course of vaccine this is boosters so again we see China oops we see China actually uh Fairway down so high up on boosters Germany United Kingdom um and a lot of the boosters in Germany United Kingdom have been relatively recent although they are proposing or or they are planning to start doing fourth doses of vaccine and I think it's the over 75s I'll have to check on that in the United Kingdom um which we're not going to comment on now but that is that is the The Proposal so there we see uh booster doses China pretty low Hong Kong pretty low United States also quite low on booster doses a coveted vaccine initial Doses and boosted doses per 100 people so this is booster dose now China we do see that they've had a lot of uh um well they've had some booster doses it's the 38 boost uh not sure if that's percent anyway you can see the relative size of the graphic there uh more boosted doses in the United Kingdom so it looks like China's fairly well prepared Hong Kong of course not as well prepared down here but as we said it's the it's the uh it's a different type of vaccine which you believe is not as effective which is the concern um so I think that's probably all we had for graphics um yeah that was it so let's get let's get back to the uh the China situation um yeah so um cases um that was the case is uh what was that that anyway yeah that was the case that was the cases yesterday that's right and that was the case is two days ago so we can see that the cases look like they're going down there but in actual fact there well actually that that could be genuine for reasons we'll see in a minute there's been two deaths first deaths that have been reported since the 26th of January 2021. now the covered zero strategy is being perpetuated now I think the problem here is the Chinese authorities really don't want to lose face on this so rather than have a lot of deaths that they're maintaining the zero covered policy which really can't work it's just kicking the can down the road it's just delaying things that really is all it's doing now the great irony here is it would stopped flights when we suggested it back in February uh 2020 this whole pandemic wouldn't have occurred so on this channel we're replicating stopping flights it was obvious World Health Organization would say no go on flying you don't need to stop flying out of China still been no accountability for that the the committed the worst possible mistake in public health of the century and there's been no comeback on it at all but the the irony is if that had the flights had stopped then would have had no pandemic But the irony is that China managed to suppress the initial outbreak with that level of transmissibility and the Draconian measures they took that could suppress the initial outbreak that's why I'm saying there could have potentially been no pandemic because if we're closed off China the Chinese actually suppressed that and there would have been no pandemic that that's my view I don't believe there would have been a pandemic would have shut it off um But the irony is now that it's come back to China and their Draconian strategies will no longer I believe no longer be uh be effective they just can't be effective against Omicron so um tens of millions staying at home orders in particularly in some provinces so tens of millions of Chinese much more locked down than we ever were in our countries very Draconian stay-at-home orders travel bans in some areas one Province eight makeshift hospitals and others in other parts of the country the equivalent of the UK Nightingale hospitals quarantine tend to set up people quarantined for days or weeks president XI is going to stick with the zero covered strategy this is what he's saying continue to put people in life at the Forefront well of course that sounds good that's motherhood and apple pie you can't argue with that stick with scientific accuracy and dynamic zero is really patent uh nonsense I'm afraid um that is just biologically impossible you can't stop a virus with the transmissibility of the measles virus which is almost what this ba2 is so whether it's ba1 or ba2 in China at the moment doesn't matter it's Omicron over time of course ba2 will take over now they they can with these dramatic lockdowns even with a transmissible of Omicron the transmissibility of Omicron they can actually stop it in certain areas but what you're going to do keep it closed off forever keep it closed off from the rest of the world because endemicity is is coming our way now we have very high infection rates in the UK at the moment the prevalence is about one in 20. it's remarkably high and that could Tim Spector thinks it's probably going to stay about one in 30 for some time because it's going to become endemic and this is going to be the same all over the world which is good because we're going to get constantly reinfected and constantly build up our immunity so for the individuals that's good but the idea that China could keep that out without sealing themselves off from the world in some North Korea type fashion is impossible so biologically the the what they're doing just makes no sense at all the president G again and curb the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible well no let me get a different colored pen here because emphatically that that's that's no no no no no you can't that that's that's a Red Cross you can't do that if I was marking the paper I'd Mark that in red you can't you can't do that you simply can't stop that um now a completely separate matter this is the picture of uh King Knute of England who was a Pious uh The Story Goes was a Pious righteous King and to demonstrate to his sycophantic courtiers that only God can stop the tide he showed he couldn't stop the tide I mean you cannot stop the tide of Omicron you can't stop it without being totally isolated it is too transmissible I got this story wrong last time so I made a bit of a better job of it this time King Canute looks like an English king 1028 first recorded in the 1100s I think it was by Henry of Huntington at least that's per Wikipedia which we wouldn't normally rely on for medical advice but uh I think it's quite acceptable for this you cannot stop no human being can order the stopping of the tide no more than they can stop the spreading of the Omicron variant so utterly bizarre really the idea that humans can override Omicron is just utterly ridiculous uh now I want to look at Africa briefly just before we finish this was the shape of the Omicron wave in South Africa so we see it's gone down really quite dramatically hospitalizations um currently 2 000 people hospitalized in South Africa with a positive diagnosis but we believe that well over half of these are incidental findings because again in South Africa this is becoming endemic and if we go on testing for the next decade we'll still find people being admitted with appendicitis and broken legs or twisted ankles I've got Omicron because it's endemic so that's the South Africa situation um which is which is good again just to look at that um intervention so 64 people intensive care 224 people in the entire country of South Africa is it 60 million people I think um currently oxygenated and probably about 60 of those or more are for non-uh non-covered reasons this is what natural immunity will do um so that was South Africa now I'm going to comment on Africa in a minute just at the end but before we do I want to get a report directly from our friend in uh Uganda and rafaf has been talking to lots and lots of African nurses and doctors and this is uh this is his report with Rafa thank you very much as always hello everyone welcome to today's covid-19 update for East Africa it is the 18th of March 2022. now the number of cases in East Africa is continuing to decline day by day today Uganda reported a total of only seven cases out of uh 2975 tests performed today which gives us a positivity rate of around 0.2 percent and we only have seven Active cases administered at the health facilities now as I said in a previous video across the whole country we have a lot of treatment centers but right now we only have seven cases which may be only in one or two treatment centers so the rest of the treatment centers in the country are vacant and dozi people admitted we have those ones with of course moderate signed and symptoms and those ones who are in uh ICU and in fact we may not have anyone in ICU at the moment I'll just have to find out from the nearby Treatment Center maybe if I happen to meet a doctor massage again but otherwise the numbers are continuing to decrease and when you look at Kenya the same thing is still happening like today they reported a total of about only 19 or 18 new cases out of 4732 tests performed which gave them a rate a positivity rate of around 0.4 percent when you look at the total recoveries have also increased and the number of cumulative tests has also increased now when you look at the vaccination let's go back to Uganda a bit Uganda has admins at of 17 Millions 197 954 doses of vaccine this includes those who have received both the first and second dose the vaccination rates are still very low in East Africa that is Uganda and Kenya for example Uganda are only about eight million people have received both fast and second dose so the decrease in number of cases we can't just attribute it to this vaccination rate because it is very low still I think it is due to a micron that came in because when it came in the crisis went up and as many people started having signs and symptoms we started seeing that the number of cases in the country started decreasing day by day now Kenya is a neighbor to Uganda so that is the same situation in these two countries that is all for today see you in the next video the best excellent uh thank you for that as always um so seven cases 0.2 positivity now of course we know the testing is rubbish but only seven Active cases in the health centers so that is that is genuine the basically Kent Uganda is essentially over the Omicron way with a massive immunity that this is generated as well said there and this is beta no okay the centralized data is not brilliant but this is based on talking to a lot of fellow clinicians in in Uganda so we think this date well we know this data is accurate well it's certainly accurate in uh he's been talking to a group of people you can't say it's accurate for the whole country but it's looking accurate because the the official data is showing only seven Active cases so that is excellent Uganda again you know the Uganda and uh Kenya rather but both large population countries essentially no cases but um I think Uganda I think he said only eight million people have had the full course of the vaccine out of the four population so this is due to natural immunity from Omicron which reference said there and which reflects the conversations he's had with many doctors in Uganda so the opportunity to um help Africa with covered vaccination would appear to be passed because the the uh the Omicron is the vaccine that um according to the the Ugandan doctors we've talked to the Omicron is the vaccine that they didn't get out or failed to make now just before we finish on that point um I just read an article here from the guy this from the guard in the popular press but apparently they've come across a document which shows that there's a compromise between the United States the European Union India South Africa and big business big Pharma to end the deadlock over an intellectual property way property way before the vaccine now this was first uh mooted to the world economic group or whatever it's called I can't remember um I forgotten the name of it but it was first moved to about getting on for two years ago now 18 months ago at least so it looks like they might be on just on the on the cusp of making some tentative agreement to waive intellectual property rights for uh allowing African countries to make their own vaccine against covid-19 um as we're seeing Omicron has already done the job this is laughable this is laughable so it looks like if we had a combination of the United States the European Union India and South Africa and big business all together in a brewery they would really struggle to get a few thirsty people drunk you could have a hundred thousand liters of lager then 10 000 liters of beer there and 5 000 bottles of whiskey there and ten thousands of bottles of gin down several hundred people waiting for a drink round about and all these have been sitting there at the meetings and 18 months later it looks like the first drink wouldn't have been served it really is completely utterly laughable if it wasn't so serious now fortunately I believe fortunately the Omicron has come along and saved these these many lives in Africa uh no thanks to the United States European Union the United Kingdom has been involved in this as well of course India South Africa and uh big business trying to organize an intellectual property waiver right it's just a complete joke and they I really do believe that these groupings could not organize a few drinks in a brewery which bodes well if there's a future pandemic that's much more pathogenic and much more virulent and much more faster transmitting than this it really doesn't bode well at all let's hope we can get some proactive mechanisms proactive mechanisms in place for next time because there will be a next time but for this time it's looking good in Africa quite concerned about China cases are going to go up in the uh United States they are going up in the UK now I believe this will be short-lived I believe the changes the ba2 taking over from the b81 but that is going to generate a lot of immunity what we don't know and this this is still a concern is the degree to which Omicron is likely to cause long covered no data on that yet I've been looking out for it on a daily basis as soon as we find it of course we will we'll talk about that but we can say that levels of immunity are increasing dramatically as we speak for example in the UK one in 20 people is currently currently infected so um there we are a mixture of news today and thank you for watching

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 519,764

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: JYig50EHX_E

Length: 25min 2sec (1502 seconds)

Published: Sun Mar 20 2022