I Can't Stay Quiet on Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Crashing Any More

I've been calling Nvidia the most powerful AI company on Earth because the next Industrial Revolution is powered by their AI chips from large language models and humanoid robots to supercomputers and self-driving cars but Nvidia stock has been crashing hard going down by over 15% in the last month alone and with such a sharp decline there's really only one question left to ask is this the beginning of the end for Nvidia stock or are its best days still to come your time is valuable so let's get right into it first things first this video is a little different it's a little more personal and it won't be for everyone and of course I'm not here to hold you hostage so here's everything I'm going to talk about upfront what I got wrong about Nvidia and why I'll explain exactly what happened to Nvidia to make the stock crash I'll show you some important data that I always look at whenever I get worried and of course my latest long-term outlook on Nvidia stock based on everything going on right now all right let's Dive Right into to what I got wrong about Nvidia absolutely nothing I'm not sure what everyone was so worried about so I did a little digging and here's what I found super micro computer is a company that builds end-to-end server and storage systems for a wide variety of markets like cloud services Enterprise data centers and high performance Computing clusters for AI training and inference I'll leave a link to my deep dive video on super micro in the description below but long story short they're a longtime partner of nvidias and they put Nvidia gpus in in their server Solutions super micro's ticker symbol is smci an smci stock went down by over 20% after they didn't pre-announced their earnings which is something they've done for seven out of the last eight quarters usually companies pre-announce their earnings when the results are well above wall Street's expectations so the market took this lack of pre-announcement as bad news for super micros growth and since super micro is tightly partnered with Nvidia we're seeing headlines like Nvidia stock is down 10% is this the beginning of the end obviously if you've been watching this channel for a while you know it's not the beginning of the end of anything in fact it's more like the end of the beginning let me show you what I mean this is a chart from Main Street data that breaks down invidious quarterly revenues by business segment I've been covering Nvidia for a long time including their pivot from high-end gpus for gaming PCs which is shown in blue to AI accelerators and networking solutions for data centers shown in dark blue in a shell that pivot along with supply chain issues caused by the pandemic is what made Nvidia underperform for four quarters in 2022 and 2023 just like plenty of other tech companies at the time and like I've been saying for their last three earnings calls one reason that nvidia's year-over-year growth numbers look so crazy is that they're being compared to those bad quarters from a year ago well nvidia's next earnings report will be around May 22nd which will be the last time their quarterly numbers will be compared compared to such low baselines year over-ear after that the bar will be set much higher that's what I mean when I say that this is the end of the beginning of Nvidia shift to AI for data centers but it's definitely not the beginning of the end all right here's the bigger issue this channel has grown a lot over the last few months and it means the world to me that almost 350,000 of you choose to spend some of your precious free time with me each week I really mean that thank you but when Nvidia stock went down I got flooded with comments on YouTube and mentions on Twitter asking me if I was worried or why I didn't talk about the crash or how in video stock is the most important thing that I can be talking about and I assume that for every comment there are hundreds of other people quietly wondering these same things so let me put things into perspective for you first when in doubt zoom out Nvidia stock is up by over 60% year-to date and it's tripled in the last year alone but if you actually look at this chart for more than one second you'll also see that Nvidia stock has dropped by over 10% five other times over the last year that's more than once a quarter now before I show you some data that'll really blow your mind I should warn you about something else a few months ago I found out that dozens of online data Brokers were selling my personal data and if you've been getting more spam phone calls texts or emails lately they might be selling yours too that's why I decided to join delete me the sponsor of this video delete me is a handsfree sub subscription service that will remove your personal information from hundreds of online data Brokers you just sign up enter your information and what their experts get to work they reviewed 25,000 listings for me so far after 7 days you get your first privacy report that shows you everything they removed I just got my third one and delete me removed over 200 pieces of my personal information since I joined not just my name and address but my fiance's and my mom's too and I love that after they remove your information they'll rescan these websites regularly you even get your own privacy adviser if you want to talk to a real person and make a custom removal request if you care about your data and your family's privacy you can get 20% off any consumer plan with my code symbol 20 by going to join delet me.com sls20 which I'll also link to below and a big thank you to delete me for supporting the channel and keeping my family's data safe and speaking of data let me show you some data on Nvidia stock that will really blow your mind you've heard the story a thousand times before if you invested $10,000 in Nvidia when it went public your money would have grown by 1,000x and you'd have $10 million today that's a 32% compound annual growth rate for 25 years straight which crushes the returns of the S&P 500 so beating the market must be super easy you just buy some growth stocks and then you hold them forever right wrong I've been holding Nvidia stock for for over 8 years now and it's been one of the most difficult stocks to hold ever here's another version of nvidia's price chart except this time I'm showing you the draw Downs the top of this chart is 0% which means nvidia's stock price made a new high and it's 0% off the peak everything below zero shows you how far it's dropped from the peak and how long it took to recover before making a new one so this is every tip that Nvidia has ever had now let's count them up Nvidia stock has dropped by 10% or more 31 separate times it's dropped by 20% or more 18 times it's dropped by 30% or more 11 different times which means it had to go back up by 50% or more to reach a new high all 11 of those times it's dropped by 50% five separate times which means it needed to double five separate times just to break even and of course it's crashed by 80% twice once when the dotom bubble burst and again during the Global Financial crisis and it gets even worse when you look at how long the deepest crashes took to recover if you invested in Nvidia during theom bubble you saw the stock go down by 85% over the next year and 2 years later you were still down by 80% it took Nvidia over 5 years just to break even just in time for the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 where Nvidia stock fell by over 80% again except this time instead of recovering after 5 years it was still down by around 70% it ended up taking 9 years for Nvidia stock to make a new high after that 9 years I bought my first shares of Nvidia stock in 2016 because at the time I was working at MIT and we were using their Titan gpus to accelerate real-time calculations on data from Radars and telescopes so since I ended up using Nvidia products for work and gaming at home I figured it must be a good stock to buy and guess gu what happened everyone told me not to buy it for all the same reasons that I still here today you just missed the runup it's at alltime highs wait for a dip and then when the stock did finally dip everyone's advice changed don't buy it now you're catching a falling knife just wait it's going to go lower and as we all know it never did even at the bottom of this 2-year dip Nvidia stock was twice as expensive as when I first invested which meant that I could only afford half as many shares the big lesson for me was to never let somebody else tell me what to do with my investments and honestly that's an expensive lesson that every decent investor ends up learning for themselves I'll talk more about that in a minute let me just quickly finish walking through this Nvidia chart first in the middle of 2020 Nvidia announced their a100 data center gpus but the stock price was already near all-time highs again so guess what I did that's right I sat on the sidelines again and waited for the next dip while the stock more than than doubled in price in fact I started ticker symbol U at the end of 2020 and I spent the first year or so making the exact same mistakes I was buying all the stocks inside Ark invests funds and covering Kathy Wood's stock picks instead of my own but when Nvidia stock collapsed in 2021 I worked hard not to make the same mistake yet again so as Kathy Wood kept selling out of Nvidia stock I made video after video talking about how much I disagreed with her then in the summer of 2022 when Nvidia stock hit the same price as when they first announced the a100 GPU and Kathy Wood was still selling it I called it quits on AR invest and I started covering Nvidia their partners and their competitors instead a few months later Nvidia released their h100 Data Center gpus and the rest is history by the way here's a fun fact Jensen just personally delivered the first Nvidia h200 to open AI right as I recorded this video which is another Big M stone that deserves a video of its own anyway here's my point these two price charts are actually the same chart investors can't get the returns in the top chart if they can't survive the volatility of the bottom one Nvidia stocks price can move by 5% or more in a single day just like any other high-tech growth stock so a 10% dip is not a crash it's just noise that's why I wasn't worried or why I didn't talk about the quote unquote crash and why I was focused focused on other stocks and before I tell you my current opinion on Nvidia stock here are two more quick tips that really helped me out when I first started investing number one there's no shame in staying on the sidelines especially in this economy it's okay to sit and wait pay your bills build cash buy your mom something nice for Mother's Day yeah you're welcome and when there's a good deal smart investors build positions over time instead of going all in at once even though it's not always easy I believe that averaging in and out of positions is one of the simplest tricks for good risk management and second don't blindly trust anyone to tell you what to do with your money not your friends not CNBC and not people on YouTube including me what I personally do is consume content from a wide variety of high quality sources high quality means that the source has a consistent point of view so I can compare their opinions over time they're probably not a reliable data point if they're constantly flip-flopping even when the fundamentals don't change I did my best to get you in it I've been recommending Nvidia endlessly off multiple times a week both here and in the club for a decade now and we're sure Nvidia it's a loser and no one or two content creators can give you the entire picture of the market because there's just too much to cover that's why I focus exclusively on Tech STS and I try my best to talk about private early stage and late stage tech companies using the same framework in every video but that framework has its own biases and I make plenty of mistakes which is why it's important to find a few podcasts newsletters and Twitter accounts or whatever else to balance out your media diet a couple years ago I did something that really helped me out with this I unsubscribe from every channel on YouTube and if you're subscribed to hundreds of channels like I was don't worry a link in article that explains how to mass unsubscribe from YouTube channels in the description below it took me about 5 minutes but after I did that YouTube started showing me tons of different content based on what I actually watched not just what I was subscribed to my personal rule is if I find myself watching the same channel three separate times I'll subscribe and if they only post once or twice a week I'll hit the notification bell too that way I'm not getting spammed with notifications and whenever I do get one chances are it's something that I'll actually find valuable but here's the thing value doesn't mean you agree with the content there are plenty of people who watch this channel specifically to bet against me and that's great because like I just said that means they're trusting me to be consistent it's much more valuable to hear a solid bear thesis on a stock that you love or a solid bull thesis on a stock that you don't instead of hearing the hundredth nice thing about a stock that you already understand take the time to find out what works for you and cut the things that don't even if that means cutting me but before before you do I said that I'd tell you my latest long-term outlook on Nvidia stock so here it is I still think Nvidia is the most powerful AI company on Earth because the next Industrial Revolution is being powered by their AI chips from large language models and humanoid robots to supercomputers and self-driving cars Nvidia is the only AI company that works with every other AI company and they're constantly shipping new products and services that help usher in the era of generative AI for example like I pointed out they delivered the first h200 GPU right as I was making this video and if you're still worried about Nvidia stock randomly going down by 10% after one of the biggest rallies in stock market history then maybe you should spend some more time understanding the science behind the stocks so whether you decide to subscribe or unsubscribe thanks for watching and until next time this is ticker simple U my name is Alex reminding you that the best investment you can make is in you

Channel: Ticker Symbol: YOU

Views: 168,308

Keywords: nvidia stock crash, nvda stock crash, why is nvidia stock going down, should i buy nvidia stock, nvidia blackwell gpu, blackwell, nvidia, nvda, nvidia stock, nvda stock, jensen huang, openai, chatgpt, gpt4, msft, microsoft stock, msft stock, googl, google stock, artificial intelligence stocks, nvidia stock news, semiconductor stocks, gpt-4, nvidia news, ai stocks, best ai stocks, amd stock, intc stock, intel stock, amd vs nvidia, nvidia vs amd, top ai stocks, smci, smci stock

Id: 90LaNaNFYh0

Length: 14min 33sec (873 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 26 2024