Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross Breaks Down NOAA 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions

Fox weather is your hurricane HQ and we are getting ready for a busy season ahead the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season it's a little bit more than a week away now that of course starts on Saturday June the 1st and today Noah offered its prediction for the season and it's calling for a very active one over the next several months let's go right to Fox Weather hurricane specialism we'll be talking a lot with over the next several months Brian Norcross Brian this is the most aggressive forecast ever issued by Noah but it's probably one of the least surprising ones anything in this Outlook issue today that was uh of any surprise to you not really uh Ian as you said everybody across the world as a matter of fact is predicting a a busy hurricane season uh and you know as we have gotten into modern times here we just have more tools to make these predictions so it's really not surprising that that things line up people generally look at the same set of issues and we'll we'll look at them here today so here's the Noah prediction they give a range of 17 to 25 name storms 8 to 13 hurricanes 4 to7 Category 3 and above and it's because of two main factors that we're going to talk about that explain between 70 and 80% of how busy the hurricane season is but that still leaves 20 to 30% that is not explained and that's why there's a range all the way from 17 to 25 it's because of that extra amount that is indeed uncertain if you average all the agencies around the world that are reporting it's about 23 so in the same area and this is all a little more than last year and remember last year we had an El Nino which tended to inhibit hurricane development a bit so you would start with okay it's got to be more than 20 so all right 23 25 you know what's it going to be because conditions this year do appear more conducive now before we get to all that let's just take a look at what's going on out there right now because we do have a little system of hurricane centers making note of but as you can see it's this big stretched out mess they give it there a 20 or 10% chance of developing here in the next couple days in this generally broad area here odds are very low when we look at the upper level winds take a look here it's very strong upper level winds and this is what's causing all that tropical moisture to be pulled up over the islands there and the upper level winds are in general forecast to continue that will be hostile so odds of development are very low but there's just a slight chance here in these Waters south of Ruda which are not terribly warm yet this this year all right let's look out in the Pacific this is Factor number one on why the seon season is forecast to be busy here you see the developing linia what does that mean it means that the water temperatures that right now are quite warm here we are in the warm Zone up to the top that's warm and they're forecast to get cool when they get cool we call that linia and the linia tends to be more conducive for storm development in the Atlantic because of the upper level winds then we go to the Atlantic and the Atlantic is record war look at all the oranges you see all across the Atlantic as a matter of fact when you actually do the measuring of all that out there you see that this main development region out between the islands in Africa is 3° fahit above normal 2 and a half in the Caribbean a little over two and a half in the gulf and you say well that doesn't sound like a lot between 82 and 85 or something right uh but over that big long area that's a lot of energy so having that extra energy just means storms are more likely to develop here you see the water temperates look where they are here in record territory all these uh in record territory by the way when we look at the Caribbean Caribbean is up here again in record territory but I just add this because there is uncertainty going forward 2010 it was as well but then it kind of tapered off to get something more like normal by the uh center of the season so you know things can still happen now what's going on while high pressure in the Atlantic is weaker than normal so you have weaker winds like this doesn't stir up the ocean as much that tends to make it warmer but there are other things going on that we don't really understand is just drastically warmer all over the oceans and as a matter of fact when we look here this is where the most of the precipitation the thunderstorms are across the Earth and when we see this we see that more in the southern hemisphere now which is unusual usually they're moving North into the Northern Hemisphere by this time why is that happening we don't know why that's happening really but it's another sign that the oceans in the atmosphere are just unusual at this point in 2024 so we'll be watching all this as we go into hurricane season Ian yeah Brian not not a whole lot that's usual going on right now and it all translates to busyness over the next several months you and I talked last week that the average among all the agencies that put out seasonal forecast it's 24 when you consider that the average number of Nam storms in any given season is 14 that kind of tells you everything you need to know so Brian I think uh we'll be speaking a lot as we move forward between now and November the 30th it's always great to have your analysis and insight that's Fox Weather hurricane specialist Brian Norcross thank you

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Length: 5min 48sec (348 seconds)

Published: Thu May 23 2024