Hurricane Season Predicted to Ramp Up

hey everybody it's Mike here Mike's weather page spaghettymodels.com I'm going to do a July 6 update on the hurricane season had kind of big news come out today uh we're gonna go into everything uh from Colorado State University the uh they're kind of the big dogs when it comes to predictions and they upped their numbers for the rest of this year so I was kind of a surprise um there's a few reasons why I'm gonna get into all that but uh we can't we could still see pretty busy season ahead uh hurricanes included and I'm going to show you all those all that also compare it to some prior years with other similar La Nina years El Nino years and um give give you a bunch of information so if you like this appreciate it this is all new for me on YouTube we do these five o'clock somewhere videos a lot during the season when there's a storm so you appreciate you liking subscribe and commenting we're trying to make our YouTube channel grow here a little bit here here's where we're at this is a preliminary uh updated graphic every time we have a new new system come out or um you know area of that's named or not named they'll update this year's tracks we did have a system all the way back in January here that uh January 16th and 17th that they went back and redesignated as Al number one it looked tropical back in January we were talking about it and they didn't do anything with it but they actually went back and said it was tropical so we've had four systems now um three have been named we had Arlene first of June remember that first day of hurricane season we had Arlene that went South and the golf didn't last long Brett and Cindy ironically started almost in the exact same spot which is very rare for June this part of the Atlantic uh Cindy went this way Brett went this way Brett Brett did play some Havoc down there on the islands ABC Trinidad Tobago the lower Lesser Antilles it almost reached hurricane status but it fizzled out and uh that's it so we had four systems so far here's the graphic from Colorado State University um just released today so they're predicting 18 named storms now that includes the four we just had so they're still predicting 14 more named storms that's a lot of storms still yet to come uh the big number I guess it sticks out for me is that they're predicting nine hurricanes and out of those nine they're predicting four major hurricanes so it's still pretty aggressive predictions to come um a lot of accumulated uh Cyclone energy if you follow that kind of stuff they added a new metric this year which was Ace West to 60 degrees which means that you know potentially more areas that can be affected not so much like fish storms as they call them so they actually predict an 82 Ace West which just means they're expecting some of these long track systems to possibly make it in the Caribbean and maybe affect land you know United States included so there you go that's the big big news today they upped their predictions um another graphic that came out this week from the Euro the Euro does seasonal outlooks the European model which is the ecmwf I just called the hero uh but they they came out with a pretty aggressive number here it's kind of hard to figure out looking at this but basically the season average is six on the hurricane frequency they're at nine so they're 20 30 above average for what they're predicting in the Atlantic Basin um the green means more than normal all right so biggest factor of um that the reasoning for increased systems this year is uh water temperature this is in a water anomaly map currently for the month of June whites are your normal temperatures based on 30-year averages this has been the region here that has been off the charts almost record-breaking uh four or five degrees above normal from what we normally see in these 30-year averages including the gulf um so this is the number one reasoning that they're concerned that we could see an active tropical season even though we have this thing called El Nino on the way which I'm going to show you in a little bit I'm going to use 2004 in this example we're going to compare this this graphic right now we're going to look at 2004 a reason bringing up 2004 there's a lot of similarities between 20 2004 and this year 2023. so look at the water anomaly map now and we go to 2004 same month of June and look how more normal the water temperature is actually cooler in spots in the main development region here across the Caribbean Western Atlantic so big difference now then and then we had a lot of systems and and then we also had El Nino year um so this you know same sort of El Nino conditions for o4 which had four systems affect Florida uh the water temperature is way cooler as far as averages go another thing is heating up pretty quick I've noticed this is your ocean heat content map This Is How deep the warm Waters go below the surface usually don't see these Reds and oranges and yellows this deep into the Caribbean in June so this is another sign the waters are really warming up and this is below the surface so the water warmer that water is below the surface the more fuel storms have to pull up energy and fuel the source for storms to become strong primarily is warm water and when that warm water is deep storms can grow it's a little bit stronger we also have this other graphic here which I love this is a uh the old remember the old uh Gulf Stream you might have learned about it in school it's continuing we have these things called Loop Eddies that spin out here continuously in the Gulf of Mexico we have this Loop current that runs way deep into the um Golf and it brings in all this warm Caribbean water into the Gulf of Mexico it's kind of like when you turn your bathtub on you know and you got cold water and when the hot water you know gets finally hot it takes a while for that the waters to warm up well this is almost like a fuel source of warm water that goes into the Gulf of Mexico so this is you know this is something else they're looking at a lot more of these little loot currents Loop Eddies they spend thousands of feet below the surface of extra warm water on top of the other warm water that's already there um some other charts we look at this is on tropical tidbits.com these are long range precipitation Maps uh General thinking is green is above normal precipitation as you can see here through the much of July green all the way to the Caribbean stretching showing there's going to be more storms coming in off of Africa anytime you have more storms off Africa that means you have the potential for any sort of tropical development this is uh July we go to August same thing all the way through the Caribbean notice so the Caribbean Western Caribbean not showing that and I'm going to show you here in a second kind of why this is the sheer zone of El Nino year but we are seeing a lot of moisture coming in off Africa all the way to possibly the United States this is August go to September kind of the same scenario and then we get to October this is worrisome a little bit this is where we get a lot of the Caribbean storms that pull up into uh lower half the continental U.S so this one model also is used in predicting long range forecasting has shown a lot of moisture a lot of hot water there you go long range temperature Maps same same model here um month of August again it's expected the water temperatures are going to remain uh above normal this is August September October and you know we have another model the CFS model and it's showing the same thing this is uh September this is October so all all long-range modeling are predicting that this warm water is going to remain for the season so there's a lot of talk about this El Nino typically in the past years we've had El Nino set up this is where basically we have a lot of wind shear coming across because of a region in the Pacific that they measure temperatures when this region in the Pacific is warmer than normal we get a lot of wind shear and that's called El Nino when this area in the Pacific is cooler than normal we get less wind shear and more storms so in the past we do have less numbers with El Nino but because of warm water they're thinking the warm water might win the battle and end up producing more storms it's also a very important to note El Nino years almost every new year that I look back on has has had a impactful uh major hurricane so it it might reduce numbers it doesn't remove the chances of anyone getting affected and in my motto now anymore is it only takes one every season seems to be defined by that one system not how many systems um so there you go the great uh look at 2018 here unfortunately we had two big storms that year we had Michael and Florence Michael was a category five that brewed in the Gulf of Mexico and then Florence went around the Atlantic almost missing this windshear and affected the east coast and what you can see here is everything's pretty much shut down in this Caribbean from this wind shear this is a common theme with El Nino years I'm seeing a lot of wind shear here across the Caribbean however the door is open for storms to find a way around it and the gulf is always open because it's windshear sometimes it's below the Gulf region as we saw with hurricane Michael so we're seeing a theme of these storms that come around sometimes during um El Nino years to watch so that's something we're going to pay attention to as the season goes on but what's interesting to note you know we have had two systems in 2018 that there were hurricanes way out here but look they didn't make it very far as they entered windshear wind shears upper level winds by the way if you're kind of new to Tropical uh Chit Chat uh upper winds can't be strong they tear apart hurricanes um when you have a lot of wind shear hurricanes get chopped up and dissipate all right so here's some numbers on El Nino and basically this is that region that they measure in the Pacific when things are normal they're in in the black number range like 0.2 means 0.2 degrees above or Celsius above whatever they figure is normal in the Pacific uh we look back at 2004 and as you can see these red areas this is the backside of 2004 red means that region was warm producing El Nino for the Atlantic but as we know with 2004 that was a very busy year especially for Florida uh 2015 was a very strong El Nino year but we still had Waukee and I'm gonna show you that here in a second where we're at now we're at 0.5 on the charts we we really haven't even transitioned much into um even El Nino yet so I'm thinking the transition isn't happening as quick as they thought meaning that we're not going to see the effects of a full-blown El Nino maybe enough to counteract these warm Waters uh years like 1992 was uh Andrew you know a lot of us know Andrew All Too Well it started out as a strong El Nino year and by peak season it was kind of neutral um not yet feeling the effects of a neutral so you know again uh 92 was technically an El Nino year and we had a system you know come up around I'm going to show you some graphics on that but 2004 to me is the the one to watch because it was an El Nino year along with 18 was an El Nino year uh here's 2004 I just wanted to show you how active it was uh we had two storms Gene and Francis come around and we also had a couple make their way through the Caribbean so again Mother Nature doesn't always play by the rules 2004 very active season uh Gina Francis were two hurricanes that came around the top side kind of like Andrew and Florence and then uh of course the golf with um Charlie and Ivan kind of got strong once it crossed past Cuba there here is Andrew's track just to show you two things with this one is a we didn't have the first storm that year until uh the end of August and that was the category five so again it you know took a while to get going August came around boom still category five and notice that track kind of went around any potential wind shear that might have been down in that Caribbean and it came across that Western Atlantic uh walk Queen uh here another one this was 2015 devastating for the Bahamas and it ended up going north um away from the continental U.S initial modeling on this one now I want to show this this was the first um this is for the First National Hurricane Center uh graphic it never expected to go past depression State this is again where you got to watch Tropics because when you got warm water anything can happen it was only expected to be a depression and over time it was like oh my God it went South then it was supposed to be you know a hurricane now watch the Future Track of Joaquin it got up to 85 miles an hour 100 500 1520 125 30 35 it got to 135 miles an hour and originally it was supposed to go maybe to the continental U.S and It ultimately didn't but again wasn't even supposed to reach past depression status and it ended up to be a major strong hurricane and this was only back a few years ago 2015. uh here's where we're at if you're wondering where we're at you know we normally have this that's why I call it a roller coaster ride a lot of times you go to the peak and then you know you go downhill but we're right here the first part of July not expected to have a lot of activity there's a lot of stuff out there you heard me talk about African dust a lot I'm not gonna get into that now but you know July is typically pretty slow before we see things ramping up and um in the past few years we've seen a little more activity later in the year towards uh end of September and October even November but that's you know kind of gives you an idea where we're at a few more Graphics here to show you this one's uh back to 1992 again just showing you how late in the season it was before we had Andrew back in August in 2004 I mentioned 2004 again um look we did not have anything in July first storm that we had in 2004 was Alex first August and that was 2004. so we had nothing in June and July next thing you know things get ramped up in August so don't feel this salt you know false sense that we're gonna have a slow season because things are slow right now past history shows us takes a little while to get get things cranking up and and um last year was a prime example of this uh 2020 um two expected to be an above average season we had nothing in the month of July and nothing in the months of August first time since like the 40s this ever happened I remember reading headlines oh the hurricane season's a bust there's nothing we went through the whole month of August without any systems and then boom we had uh Fiona which was a very devastating hurricane uh not for continental U.S but for Nova Scotia um I think it passed close to Bermuda then we had of course Ian category five devastating for Southwest Florida um you know a terrible hurricane and then we had Nicole in November so again two months nothing happened boom everything came at the end of the year so a little common theme there but that's all it takes only takes one there's my shirt designed for the year uh I got the link on top of spaghettymodels.com Mike's other page you can pick one up it's got the hurricane season all the names on it next name on the list is Dawn and then Emily my daughter's name she'll love that one uh it only takes one that's the theme right don't get wrapped up in the amount of numbers have a plan be prepared know your Zone it's very important to know your Zone uh if you need to evacuate or not when we do have a system and and the best piece of advice my dad told me and I just read it today from the Florida Division of Emergency Management always have your tanks at a half a tank or half full during a hurricane season because you never know when you might need to leave town and you don't want to get caught up in those mad crazy gas lines um so it's good advice right always keep some gas in the tank and you're not you're not panicking that to find some if you need some so there you go hope you like this little video again I appreciate it we're trying to grow our YouTube channel and um you know let me know what you thought of it and what I need to do uh we'll try to get this thing up to 100K that's the goal this year we're at 50 right now so have a great evening we'll see this long range forecast pans out we'll see all right have a great night

Channel: Mikes Weather Page

Views: 17,434

Keywords: Tropical Updates, Hurricanes, Weather, Live Weather, Saharan Dust, African Waves, Tropical Storms, Severe Weather, Flooding, Rain, Tornadoes, Mikes Weather Page, Spaghetti Models, Mike's Weather Page, hurricanetrack, Hurricane track, storm track

Id: yvZaZ9WlhPw

Length: 16min 54sec (1014 seconds)

Published: Thu Jul 06 2023