On September 6, the Ukrainian army
launched an attack on the town of Balakliya. It had been held by the Russian army
for more than 6 months. But by September 8, the Ukrainian army
had recaptured it. And they were just getting started. Over the next few days, Ukrainian forces
swept through this Russian-held territory with astounding speed. "Ukrainian forces have blitzed
through Russia's gains..." "...in a lightning counter-offensive..." "...forcing Russian forces to retreat..." As of September 14, Ukraine claims it recaptured nearly 8,000 square kilometers of
Russian-held territory and liberated dozens of towns. It’s a major breakthrough for Ukraine and
it marks a new phase in the war. So, how did Ukraine pull off such
a stunning attack? And how does it change the war? It’s useful to think of the war in Ukraine
as having three main phases, so far. The first began when Russia invaded
in February 2022. The Russian military swept into Ukraine through
the north, east, and south and immediately clashed with
the Ukrainian army. This phase was essentially the Russians
attempting to force the Ukrainian government to surrender. This is Mason Clark, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War,
an American think tank. Ukrainian forces at the time were
in large part outgunned. The most intense fighting took place
in a few major cities like Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, and
outside the capital, Kyiv. But by April, a few weeks into the war Russia had failed to capture Kyiv or Kharkiv. It did control a large swath
of territory, though and continued to fight the Ukrainian army
on three main fronts: In the northeast, in the east, and in the
south, where it did control Kherson. That's when the second phase began. From about April to August, this map
changed very little. Russia, for the most part, stopped conducting
large, sweeping attacks and instead relied on its artillery to pound
Ukrainian positions. But the Russian army was in bad shape. The US government estimates that
as many as 80,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. It was very, very devastating for them particularly since the losses
they were taking early in the war were in the the best of the Russian military. The easy comparison is by this summer, the Russians had lost
more men than the Soviets did in nearly a decade of the war in Afghanistan. So, during the summer, Russia used the time
to recruit more soldiers. But it didn't go well. A fascinating element of this is that the Kremlin still is calling this
a special military operation. It cannot be referred to as a war. That actually matters because the Russians
haven't called up conscripts for this invasion. And instead, they're trying to fill these
gaps with these various ad hoc methods. The Russians have had to hire more mercenaries. And offer payments to prisoners. They’ve even raised the age limit
to allow men over 40 to join the army. And Russia’s sent many of these men,
with little training, to the front lines. So it's led to a steady drop off in the quality
of Russian personnel throughout the war. But while Russia struggled to rebuild its army,
Ukraine had the opposite problem. There was actually a sort of
bottleneck in May where they had too many recruits and
not enough instructors to train them which is a very good problem to have. With help from its western allies Ukraine was able to quickly train lots of
these men before sending them to the front. That has really helped the Ukrainian military
not just produce more soldiers but very effective soldiers, better than
the Russians. By the end of August they were ready for the
next phase of the war. Their own attack. Throughout the summer, Ukrainian leaders
talked a lot about their plans to launch an attack. And they made it pretty clear that they would
strike here, Kherson, key to control the south. Ukraine moved many of its troops into position
near the city. And used their most-advanced artillery
to hit the Russians for weeks. They were forcing the under-manned
Russian army to make a choice: they had to pick somewhere to send forces
and they picked Kherson. When the Russians moved troops to Kherson,
they left the northeast vulnerable since it was mostly guarded by
those experienced soldiers. So when Ukraine did start their attack
in early September they didn’t hit much resistance there. Almost as soon as Ukraine’s soldiers began
the attack, the Russian forces began to flee. These are piles of weapons and ammunition,
left behind by Russian troops near Kharkiv. They also left trucks, tanks,
and artillery behind. And this is a Russian tank crew
frantically fleeing before crashing into a tree. The Russians were running away and withdrawing faster than the Ukrainians were
keeping up with them. While the Russians retreated Ukraine took over all this territory which included some important towns. Izyum was a Russian supply dump. And Kupiansk was a crucial railway hub,
useful for moving troops and supplies. They’ve also freed thousands
of Ukrainian civilians that have been trapped under
Russian occupation for months. I think this was a very well done,
opportunistic attack that went just incredibly well for
the Ukrainian military. Meanwhile, Ukraine is still attacking Kherson
and making some progress. But the attack in Kharkiv has begun
a third phase in the war where Ukraine, this time, has the momentum. There's a long road ahead. The Russians are going to try and replace
these further catastrophic losses with likely diminishing returns. But I am confident in saying that
the shoe is more on the other foot now with Ukrainian forces having the initiative
of choosing where the next major battle of the war will occur. And they have clearly demonstrated that they can and fully intend
to take this war into 2023 and drive out the occupying Russian forces.
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Sooo is it actually possible for Ukraine to win this war ?!?