How The Civil War Almost Became A World War (And What If It Did?) | Alternate History

this video is sponsored by war and peace american civil war generally the american civil war when brought into historical discussion is regarded as a fairly localized event that is to say its impact isn't often seen as having tremendous repercussions outside of the continent until the outbreak of the great war or even as late as the cold war this perspective is understandable as the united states favored a distancing of itself from european affairs and officially no foreign power intervened in the war at all though that being said there certainly were foreign assets and interests in north america from territorial desires to economic dependencies and yet for some reason no action was taken or was so insignificant that it has effectively faded from common memory to understand how close the civil war came to expanding into a far wider reaching conflict we need to take a few steps back and investigate on this timeline the decades immediately proceeding and following the civil war but first 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directly expand deeper into britain's colonial and strategically significant territories in asia now russia was building a navy one that was meant to challenge britain's own and pave the way for an era of russian dominance in europe and asia but before that could happen britain with the support of the newly restored french empire quickly intervened and wiped out the russian navy in the black sea during what was known as the crimean war effectively crippling russia's hopes for global power and embittering them toward the west this loss diminished russia's place in europe and it found itself in need of reliable allies especially after their ally of austria had betrayed them by not providing assistance during the war leaving russia at the mercy of britain and france virtually every european nation with something to lose feared the russians and preferred they remain a backwater as not have the ability to forcibly annex large portions of central europe and the near east one exception was prussia a former member of the now dissolved holy alliance between itself austria and russia the prussians who held ambitions of uniting the german states under their rule and at the expense of france and austria found russia to be a valuable player in these events not so much as a proper ally but as a reliable non-aggressor the prussians were confident they could make their acquisitions alone but only if no other major power got involved on the side of their opponent russia bitter at austria for its betrayal and at frankfurt's perceived aggression in the crimean war would allow prussia to expand unhindered there was also a sense among prussians later minister president otto von bismarck especially that prussia needed for the sake of national pride and a sense of solidarity to unite germany alone to not appear as a conqueror backed by an alien nation or as a feeble state dependent on outside help this factor had actually led bismarck to turn down a proposed invasion of austria and france in the summer of 1863 which very well could have brought them all their desired lands which would have taken nearly another decade to acquire otherwise the prussians would foster friendly ties with russia aiding them suppressing a polish rebellion in 1863 and it would be after much beratement by napoleon iii who sympathized with poland and attempted to forge an anti-prussian alliance with austria that russia would make its invasion proposition france was preparing its armies and fortifying its border however britain strongly discouraged the action and austria turned down the alliance asserting that french support in a conquest of prussian territory would only hurt its image among the german states and so no major war occurred right then but eventually prussia would forcibly rest its desired lands from austrian and french possession without russia's help the russians also looked beyond europe for potentially friendly and capable powers and of them perhaps the most significant was the united states a country with whom russia felt it shared a kindred bond with the americans also being a large land-based empire of european heritage though often cut out of european politics and maintaining a historic animosity toward britain russia believed that few other countries could pose the same challenge to british hegemony that the us historically has and even fewer could understand russian motivations like the us could it was for this reason the union's current struggle against the confederacy and the rising potential for a war to break out in europe that russia sent its far eastern and baltic fleets to the union in 1863 fearing that left as they were britain or france might close them in and wipe them out as they did the black sea fleet the russian fleets provided the indispensable service of protecting the american west coast and patrolling northeastern waters why this was more important than may seem on the surface we'll get to in short time moving over to october of 1863 just months after the american civil war had broken out france britain and spain had set about invading mexico to enforce payment of a large debt owed having boots on the ground by december of the same year however just weeks later in 1862 spain and britain had withdrawn from the effort coming to a resolve with mexico but france refused to leave standing determined to fully occupy the mexican states and rule it through an installed puppet government even despite persuasion from britain to withdraw fran saw the occupation of the united states in the civil war as a prime opportunity to reopen colonial efforts in the americas and would utilize a subjugated mexico to facilitate further annexations spain also took advantage of these circumstances to reoccupy the dominican republic ambitions for colonial revival having been well on the spanish agenda from supporting france colonization of indochina forcing concessions from morocco and pursuing willing reintegration of latin america into the empire the rebel confederates effectively cut the union off from intervening in mexico the union strictly opposed france's efforts and would no doubt prove a major threat to french mexico if they came out victorious the confederates however were very willing to negotiate with france and appeared as a much more receptive partner the south also had a great bounty of cotton to offer france which it did need to fuel its textile industry and the absence of which because of a union blockade led to what was known as the cotton famine in both france and britain unfortunately for the confederates the union threatened a declaration of war against any european power which sought to support or even recognize the confederacy forcing france to abstain from direct intervention france felt it had the means to effectively combat the union however feared what total investment in a large-scale american campaign would mean for europe if france was too preoccupied austria might invade allied italy to reacquire recently lost territories russia may invade ottoman lands and the balkans upsetting the european balance of power and prussia may attempt to invade france itself for these reasons france moved to not directly support the confederates unless britain agreed to do the same splitting the responsibility between the two britain like france had received diplomatic missions from the south and also depended upon southern cotton for a great bulk of its textile industry additionally britain saw much utility in weakening the united states and treating the confederates as something of a proxy through which it could tighten its control over north america the union and rising american capability as a whole was certainly a threat to britain one at the very least it soon would be and there was a very strong sense among many in britain that the americans with their history and recent influx of irish immigrants hated britain with a fiery passion vice versa the americans felt similarly of britain the american minister to russia writing quote they hope for our ruin they are jealous of our power they care neither for the south nor the north they hate us both there was also a sense within britain's government of the union's hypocrisy asserting that no difference existed between the breakaway of the confederacy and the breakaway of the original colonies from british rule southern politicians no longer agree with the northern dominated government and so should be free to pursue government in their own fashion just as the 13 colonies had this comparison produced a great deal of outrage within the northern public and incited further hostility which stalled lincoln from approaching foreign relations calmly and patiently as he feared such a thing would now appear weak in the eyes of the common union citizen this nearly resulted in a british declaration of war following what was known as the trent affair just one month prior to the european intervention in mexico when the union illegally arrested two confederate diplomats aboard a british ship on route to europe another hypocritical move which drew parallels between the union and bryn's policy of capturing american soldiers for enlistment in the napoleonic wars this issue itself having led the us to initiate the war of 1812 back in the day the union however released the diplomats and war was averted but as british prime minister palmerston put it had conflicts broken out britain was in better shape than ever before to deal an unforgettable blow to the united states what kept britain from full-on participation and reacting with hostility from the get-go was a handful of advantages the union held over them which even in the event of a victory could dramatically cost the uk in the long term firstly is the issue of trade we addressed the importance of southern cotton to the uk and france and how even with attempts to substitute the confederacy with other sources of cotton the cotton famine still occurred this economic factor seems like a fair motive to support the confederates against what seems to be a relatively outmatched union however while the confederates provided valuable cotton to europe the union was responsible for essential food crops without which britain might well find itself in an actual famine suffice to say this would not be a war to simply enter haphazardly but what if the union's hostility and the threat america to british dominance in north america and the atlantic while despite britain remaining confident it could muster a victory for the confederacy it estimated that given the circumstances of an intervention the demands of the conflict the union's virtually unmatched population on the continent and the extent of british defenses in the region they would see a union withdrawal from the south be followed by union conquest of canada which neither britain or france would be able to repel and which the confederates would likely be unwilling to invest themselves in the entire british merchant fleet could be expected to be destroyed or left in great disrepair by the union's very capable navy newly iron-clad vessels would be incapable of closely approaching union shores preventing an effective bombardment campaign and cold winters and icing over of canadian waters would prevent any effect of defense of the great lakes region britain being unable to lend reliable naval support to canada would leave the vastly underpopulated and undertrained colony easy game for the union it would be decided then that in the event war needed to be declared britain's best hope would be to take an offensive position early on drawing away union soldiers who might otherwise be invested in a canadian front the goal was to invade maine and new england in the east while another force took california and oregon in the west the us's virtually undefended west coast would then be made a bargaining chip in the event the union successfully occupied canada this here is where russia's far eastern fleet comes into play in the end russia didn't need to use its navy in defense of the union france resolved not to support the confederacy without britain spain resolved not to support the confederacy without france and britain left its own decision to hinge on the success of one man confederate general robert e lee the british were impressed by southern success in the second battle of bull run and felt quite assured of southern victory however to be left without doubt it was decided that britain's involvement would be determined by the following success or failure of general robert e lee lee had been leading the south to an apparent victory but not long after success at bull run did his luck turn for the worse lee's plans numbers and movements were leaked to the union in a lost copy of his command order 191 what followed was a declining war effort which discouraged any european participation but what if that changed what if europe found itself pulled into the american conflict turning the civil war into a great war the next question is then when and why as it seems there are a number of ways the war could have escalated but the two obvious divergence points are of course the trent affair and lee's campaign in maryland while the latter case is less an opportunity for a european war and more of a final show of support for the confederacy once they had essentially won the war we could assume foreign intervention to take a more diplomatic character of officially recognizing the confederacy and demanding the union accept peace term so as to bring an end to the bloodshed and reopen american markets to europe facing the threat of european intervention and seeing no slack from the confederates lincoln is forced to accept southern secession bringing much heartache to the union and bringing an end to union dominance on the continent expansionism as we've covered in a previous video was highly motivated by southern and democrat politicians who saw value in more farmable land to enrich their agricultural economy for northern politicians westward expansion's cheap value laid an opening of access to the pacific so as to facilitate water trade its economy and culture was steeped more deeply in trade and industry both of which encouraged settlement along the eastern and great lakes coasts but not so much the inland region california and oregon could be expected to attract more settlers in the future though the territories in between may take longer to be properly settled and developed for this reason and a post-war economic slump the union is unlikely to acquire alaska from russia who may instead sell to britain washington territory in hawaii likely also seeing integration to brings colonial sphere at a later point while the confederate states expanded to include kentucky missouri maryland and new mexico territory the maryland acquisition forcing the union to move its capital back to philadelphia alternatively we could assume that europe finds itself pulled into the civil war more abruptly and without assurance of either side's chances for victory the trend of fear reaches a boiling point upon lincoln's refusal to release the confederate diplomats britain retaliates immediately and launches its simultaneous invasions of new england and the west coast by this point france spain and britain would be jointly invading mexico and this declaration of war would force burn to withdraw early leaving spain and france alone and making the spanish less likely to withdraw later on as france could now persuade them to carry on the fight in exchange for colonial gains arguing that if the confederates won spain's sugar colonies in the caribbean would be a likely target for annexation by them and thus spain may want to reinforce its standing in the region the french still seeing the confederates as their buffer against u.s intervention in mexico would also support them financially and militarily once louisiana came under threat russia in response to britain's aggression against the union would dispatch its far eastern fleet to the west coast where britain's occupation would already be underway britain would find a good deal of support from secessionists in the region who were disconnected from the main conflict and who otherwise stood no chance of rebelling there were of course those in southern california who wished to join the confederacy but there were also those in the far northwest who sought to carve out an independent pacific republic not to mention a number of native tribes who opposed union rule these factions would serve as britain's puppet governments on the mainland while it engaged in combat with the russian fleet and coastal defenses the union would now find its resources stretched as new england demanded land and naval assets be diverted there against british attacks and france continually harassed union vessels along the southern coast it's clear russian support alone would not match the droid efforts of france and britain and so while those two preoccupied themselves abroad russia would bring prussia into the fight and begin threatening austria and the ottoman empire these invasions prompting a hasty reaction from france and britain allowing the union to regain ground in the north and launch a campaign against canada meanwhile the confederates maintain the upper hand in the southern front russia is able to entice italy and greece into joining the war against austria and the ottomans with the promise of generous land gains turning them against their former allies of france and britain who would simply have their hands far too full to effectively handle either theater of the war the confederates were nearing victory however european support having prevented the union from wearing the south down allowing them to soon capture washington dc yet despite this the union may well persist forcing britain to call for an armistice and negotiate an end to the war in north america clearly the south would have proven itself worthy of attaining independence and if left to continue the war alone at this point would likely still emerge victorious the union had succeeded in forcing a surrender from canada after occupying its major population centers along the great lakes leaving britain retaining only small stretches of land along the coast it'd be decided that the confederate states and pacific republic be recognized as independent by the union and in exchange britain would see to them the canadian provinces of ontario quebec new brunswick and nova scotia the pacific republic would serve as an essential puppet government of britain newfoundland and labrador would still serve as a major waypoint for britain's trade with america and russian alaska its major settlement already occupied by britain would see annexation to what remained of canada which would henceforth be known in whole as british columbia in europe austria would have been forced to surrender losing significant territories to russia italy romania serbia and the newly established german empire ottoman territory in the balkans would have been occupied entirely by a russian-backed coalition of serbia romania and greece though ottoman territory in the near east would remain nearly intact britain now having its navy freed up would be able to involve itself in the mediterranean but by this point little could be done to resecure the balkans even so britain's navy was heavily worn and weary and may only risk total destruction if it attempted to push itself too far france's navy would still be preoccupied with mexico while its land forces held off a german invasion emperor napoleon iii putting himself at great risk by choosing to lead the french armies himself however fortunately for him prussia would not have been quite where it was in our timeline during the franco-prussian war though that being said prussia would maintain the upper hand until peace was finally achieved postwar prussia would be allowed to keep its territorial acquisitions but refused authority over alsace lorraine which the prussians would be satisfied to simply annex under different circumstances much of the ottoman empire's territory would be divided up between france britain greece and russia based on strategic claims and present zones of occupation giving russia little in the way of direct annexations but a great deal to their ally of greece whom would now grant russia ease of access into the mediterranean after also receiving the right to rebuild their black sea fleet though britain would still attempt to regain greece's favor and steer it away from supporting russia austria would be left reduced to territory and divided along its austrian and hungarian spheres the austrians being relegated to a secondary european power now that prussia dominated germany and russia dominated the balkans emperor napoleon's investment in the new world would have paid off tremendously having succeeded in not only subjugating mexico but also cost britain a major asset in the atlantic through the loss of eastern canada though french collaboration with spain and spanish efforts at a new colonial empire would be brought to an end following the glorious revolution of 1868 france would still come away with a powerful ally in the region thanks to the confederacy who would proceed to annex spain's caribbean colonies in its moment of vulnerability the global balance of power alliances and spheres of interest would be shifted dramatically leaving the world in a very different state though perhaps one no less unstable than it was in our world one can only imagine how these nations now reoriented will interact and grow in the coming decades and where their paths will leave them come the turn of the century and that is where i'll end this video for now the usfz thanks for watching support your legion by liking the video or join our ranks by subscribing for more mr z out

Channel: Monsieur Z

Views: 500,150

Keywords: Alternate History, Althist, Althistory, What If, American Civil War, Civil War, History, Trent Affair, Britain, France, Russia, Joined, What If The South Won, Explained, Confederacy, CSA, Confederate States, History Of, Could the South have won the Civil War, Confederates, South Wins, Navy, Fleet, Second French Intervention In Mexico, France Invades Mexico, French, Of, Mexico, Union, Invasion, Canada, Russian, Factions, Map, Documentary, Involvement, Foreign Intervention, During, Germany, Crimean War

Id: _D7NEO0BJMc

Length: 19min 44sec (1184 seconds)

Published: Wed Sep 30 2020