(music) (music) We live in an interconnected,
an increasingly globalized world. Thanks to international jet travel, people and the diseases they carry can be in any city on the planet
in a matter of hours. And once a virus touches down, sometimes all it takes
is one sneeze to spread the infection throughout the community. When humans were hunter-gatherers,
roaming the wild savannas, we were never in one place long enough, and settlements were not large enough to sustain the transmission
of infectious microbes. But with the advent
of the agricultural revolution 10,000 years ago, and the arrival
of permanent settlements in the Middle East, people began
living side-by-side with animals, facilitating the spread
of bacteria and viruses between cattle and humans. Epidemics and pandemics come
in many shapes and forms. In 2010, for instance, a devastating earthquake struck Haiti, forcing thousands of people
into temporary refugee camps. Within weeks, the camps had become
breeding grounds for cholera, a bacteria spread by contaminated water, triggering a country-wide epidemic. But the most common cause
of epidemics are viruses, such as measles, influenza and HIV. And when they go global,
we call them pandemics. Pandemics have occurred
throughout human history, Some have left scars on the tissue
and bone of their victims, while evidence for others
comes from preserved DNA. For instance, scientists
have recovered DNA from the bacteria
that transmits tuberculosis from the remains of ancient
Egyptian mummies. And in 2011, scientists investigating a plague
pit in the city of London were able to reconstruct
the genome of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for the Black
Death of the 14th century. It is thought the plague
originated in China in around 1340, spreading west along the Silk Road, the caravan route running
from Mongolia to the Crimea. In 1347, the plague reached
the Mediterranean, and by 1400, it had killed in excess of 34 million Europeans,
earning it the title, the Great Mortality. It was later historians
who called it the Black Death. However, by far the greatest
pandemic killer is influenza. Flu is constantly circulating
between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. In North America and Europe, seasonal flus occur
every autumn and winter. As the majority of children and adults will have
been exposed to the virus in previous seasons, these illnesses are usually mild. However, every 20 to 40 years or so the virus undergoes a dramatic mutation. Usually this occurs when a wild flu virus circulating in ducks and farm poultry meets a pig virus,
and they exchange genes. This process is known as antigenic shift and has occurred throughout human history. The first recorded
pandemic occurred in 1580. The 18th and 19th centuries saw at least six further pandemics. In terms of mortality, none can compare with the Great
Flu Pandemic of 1918. The first indication of the pandemic came in the spring, when American
troops in northern France began complaining of chills,
headaches and fever. Then, the following September, at a U.S.
Army barracks near Boston, soldiers started collapsing on parade, prompting their removal
to the camp infirmary. As a surgeon there recalled, two hours after admission, they had
the mahogany spots over the cheekbones and a few hours later you can begin to see the cyanosis
extending from their ears and spreading all over the face. It is only a matter of a few hours
then until death comes, and it is simply a struggle
for air until they suffocate. On the S.S. Leviathan, a huge American transport
en route to Bordeaux, sick men hemorrhaged
blood from their noses, turning the decks between their bunks
slick with bodily fluids. Meanwhile, British soldiers returning
from northern France on furlough introduced the flu to Dover
and other Channel ports, from where the virus
was carried by rail to London. By the time the pandemic
had run its course in April 1919, an estimated 675,000 Americans and 230,000 Britons were dead. In India alone, some 10
million were killed, and worldwide the death toll
was an astonishing 50 million. But that was then. Today, planes can transport viruses to any country on the globe in a fraction of the time it took in 1918. In February 2003, for instance, a Chinese doctor arrived
at the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong feeling unwell. Unknown to him, he was harboring a new
animal-origin virus called SARS, short for Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome. Within 24 hours of checking into Room 913, sixteen other guests had been infected, and over the following days five boarded
planes to overseas destinations, spreading the virus to Vietnam,
Singapore and Canada. Flights between Hong Kong, Toronto and other
international cities were quickly grounded and thanks to other emergency measures, a pandemic was averted. By the time the outbreak
was over four months later, SARS had infected 29 countries worldwide and more than 1,000 people were dead. For all that the virus
was rapidly contained, however, there was little that could be done
about the alarming news reports carried by cable news
channels and the Internet. As bloggers added to the hysteria by spreading unfounded
conspiracy theories, tourism in Hong Kong and other
affected cities ground to a halt, costing businesses more
than 10 billion U.S. dollars. One business, however, did very well. Above all, SARS was a reminder that pandemics
have always been associated with panic. If history teaches us anything, it's that while pandemics may start small, their impacts can be as dramatic
as wars and natural disasters. The difference today is that science gives us
the ability to detect pandemics right at the very beginning and to take action
to mitigate their impacts before they spread too widely. (music)
Claim: Pandemics bring with them a large wave of panic in people. Data: Information can be dispersed quickly and efficiently thanks to the internet and television. Warrant: Panic about a new disease, no matter how contained, can be started all over the world. Backing: Information about a new disease can spread in matters of hours from the original discovery. Rebuttal: A strictly contained disease could be outside the reach of the internet or television. Qualifier: A covered pandemic
From the video:
Claim: The Agricultural Revolution caused humans to contract more diseases than they did when they were nomadic.
Data: When people live in close quarters with other people and animals, they spread bacteria and viruses.
Warrant: Bacteria and viruses can cause many diseases.
Backing: Early humans had very little exposure to, and therefore immune defenses from, the new viruses and bacteria they could contract from animals.
Rebuttal: After the Agricultural Revolution, humans also became stronger and healthier because of their constant source of food and shelter. This would help them fight off diseases better.
Qualifier: Most of the time...
Claim: Antigenic shift is vital for circulating viruses like influenza to remain a potent sickness. Data: "In North America and Europe, seasonal flus occur every autumn and winter. As the majority of children and adults will have been exposed to the virus in previous seasons, theses illnesses are usually mild. However, every 20 or 40 years or so, the virus undergoes a dramatic mutation. Usually this occurs when a wild flu virus circulating in ducks and farm poultry meets a pig virus and they exchange genes. This process is known as antigenic shift and has occurred throughout human history. Warrant: The human immune system, which remembers sickness that the body has previously encountered, wouldn't be able to defend itself in full force against a new, mutated virus. Backing: The Great Flu Pandemic was a result of an antigenic shift. Rebuttal: Areas with statistically low immune levels (like Africa) wouldn't be able to defend themselves regardless of mutation or not. Qualifier: In most cases...
Claim: Social media has an irremovable influence on the economy.
Data: Between 2002 and 2003, conspiracy theories about Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome cost businesses in Hong Kong approximately 10 billion USD.
Warrant: The general population decides whether it is worth it to spend money based on other people’s opinions. After learning from the media about possibly contracting an illness, people will not want to travel.
Backing: Without the Internet and television, news would not travel nearly as quickly or to as many people as it does today.
Rebuttal: Unless certain events are withheld from public knowledge.
Qualifier: Usually
Claim-Science gives us the ability to detect pandemics at an early stage.
Data-New practices and yearly checkups allow doctors to assess the health of our bodies.
Warrant-Doctors can run various tests to check the health of our bodies and to determine if there is anything unusual.
Backing-These tests inform doctors and medical personnel what is in our bodies and what is harming.
Rebuttal-Unless there is a sickness that has never been documented.
Qualifier-Most of the time…
Claim: Technological advances have made it easier for viruses to spread faster and to cause pandemics.
Data: In 2003 a Chinese doctor reached Hong Kong feeling ill and spread Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome to 16 other guests in his hotel which 5 of them traveled to Singapore, Vietnam, and Canada and spread the disease.
Warrant: SARS spread to 29 countries and killed 1,000 people because of planes.
Backing: It took only 4 months for the disease to spread to 29 countries and kill 1,000 people.
Rebuttal: Technological advances have also made it easier to detect pandemics and to stop them from spreading worldwide.
Qualifier: Usually
CLAIM: Epidemics spread faster when people live closer together.
DATA: "In 2010 for instance, a devastating earthquake struck Haiti forcing thousands of people into temporary refugee camps. Within weeks, the camps having become breeding grounds for Cholera, bacteria spread by contaminated water triggering a country wide epidemic."
WARRANT: Epidemics are spread by people and through the things they touch or use.
BACKING: Water is a necessity to human survival, which can carry disease or viruses without people even realizing it.
REBUTTAL: Unless people are immune to the disease in that area and do not get it.
QUALIFIER: Most of the time