How do we get to UBI and Post-Labor Economics? Decentralized Ownership: the New Social Contract!

hey everybody David Shapiro here so today we're going to talk about the transition from uh from here to Universal basic income and Beyond so basically this question came from my patreon audience and uh the the the question was simple like how do we get from here to post- labor economics like how do we get from here to zero employment um how do we get there but also what does that look like what does that phase look like and also I wanted to address that uh thank you for providing uh feedback you guys said very loud and clear that you want to make sure that you see my face um which I appreciate like you know I I'm the same way I do watch some uh faceless channels some some uh you know voiceover only channels um you know my good friend Philip over at AI explained is a is a faceless Channel um but I understand that like you've made a connection with me so uh I just wanted to address that and I would say I I will be continuing to experiment because I do want to increase the quality of my production um so I'll probably be popping in and out in terms of Bas right now but I'm also what I do want to say is that uh it is much easier for me to focus on elocution if I'm just doing voiceover so I'll probably do a hybrid approach so let me know if this video is better I'm also about to experiment with hiring a professional outsourced editing uh studio so the editing should improve so on and so forth that's beside the point let's get on with the show so for the sake of this video I'm just going to make a few assumptions but I wanted to spell out those assumptions so that you knew what they were uh first assumption is that the that the current Arc of AI Improvement will continue um at least for the foreseeable future there's not really any signs of it slowing down if anything it's still accelerating I think there's broad consensus on that although of course there's always naysayers who are like it's all smok and mirrors and I'm like whatever you're not paying attention to reality the main kpi that I pay attention to are better faster cheaper and safer and so what I mean by that is that once once Ai and machines are better faster cheaper safer than humans um it would it's in economically inevitable that they will replace us but especially if they're safer than us and and Achieve better outcomes it might be an ethical imperative to replace humans with machines um another assumption is that the frontier of automation will subsume uh most human capacity relatively soon um as predicted by that IMF report that I just did a video on and then finally permanent unemployment begins to Rise um and shows no sign of slowing down so those are kind of the core assumptions that I'm making uh about what the future looks like so if all that's true now what what happens next how do we get from here to zero employment how do we get from here to Ubi and Beyond and whatever comes next how do we get to full post labor economics so here's my current thoughts first I think that it will go through four phases and we're in phase one right now so phase one is early victims so the first victims are creatives so writers and image generators and so here's here's a rule of thumb that my wife uh somewhat cynically uh believes but it seems like it's proving to be true and she says that the default value of creativity under capitalism is zero meaning if you can produce some creative work for free people will consume it for free and if they can get away without paying you they will get away without paying you um so creatives are the first out the door um and this is I I'm pretty sure that's that's like an uncontested statement especially when you look at um you know the all the fighting over um image generation and the the Hollywood Writers Guild and all that kind of fun stuff it's like okay like the writing's on the wall there the next uh set of victims are going to be back office workers such as like clerical and administrative workers um they're already kind of being automated away but you still kind of need humans in the loop to provide oversight and the primary rule of thumb here is that forgivable and unregulated jobs are the most vulnerable and so what forgivable means is that a forgivable job is one where mistakes are okay where there's no lives on the line uh it's not going to hurt the bottom line if you make small mistakes which is why creativity um is one of the first things to go is because it is messy by Nature uh likewise just process in paperwork the business isn't going to grind to a halt if a back office AI needs a little bit of extra oversight or double checks cuz a lot of those things have double checks and crosschecking in the workflows already because humans are prone to make mistakes why because that kind of work is tedious and mind numing and you you need to have a series of checks anyways but none of them are regulated uh and so a regulated job or regulated industry is one where you need certification or education or accreditation in order to perform that job or or or the work product needs to be inspected and improved such as by the FDA or you know Medical Board of advisers or whatever so any any jobs that are forgivable and unregulated those are going to be the first to go just because that is the economic loow hanging fruit and uh so before we get to phase two I want to reiterate the automation Paradox so I think the I think the the best definition of the automation Paradox and if there's a better term for this please let me know in the comments um I think there is a better term but couldn't find it uh but basically the productivity of employees who use AI tools are going to continue to rise up until the very moment that another AI tool or automation tool can just fully replace the the the the human and so like as you're doing more and more uh of your job with AI eventually you just aren't needed because then um an employee proxy uses the tools for you and then human productivity drops to zero and you get laid off while the machine takes over your job so productivity continues to climb and you're feeling great but then that next Innovation you know GPT 5 drops or Gemini 2 or whatever you know the next model drops and that pushes the the frontier of automation just past the finish line and suddenly your job is no longer uh no longer requires you and so the transition from phase one to phase two is people are going to feel it when the frontier of Auto subsumes their entire set of tasks that they can do and one thing that I want to point out is that the automation uh the frontier of automation is by and large about cognitive labor but when you look at the level of performance that the Tesla bot did the level of manual dexterity that it demonstrated and that was after like less than a year of development or just over a year of development the frontier of automation is also going to include uh manual dextrous labor and skilled physical labor in environments that we thought that only humans could do so that's coming fast and of course Tesla is not the only one working on humanoid robots there are lots and lots of other ones so 2024 we're going to see a huge ramp up in the amount of physical labor that machines can do um there is the that article about uh the Amazon robots that are expected to replace all Amazon workers and only cost $3 per hour to run so it's coming so that all leads to phase two which I just kind of call the wind down phase and so the winding down phase is uh it's winding down for us the employees the humans it's it this is when the uh investors are going to be super excited like the stock market is going to be going crazy I think and lots of investors are going to be super excited and this is also where you're going to see the capitalist class is going to be even more detached from the reality that most human most like people are facing because they're going to be like profits have never been higher we're great like go fast fter and so all the accelerationists are going to be like keep going faster buy stocks you know stons up into to the right um meanwhile more and more people are going to be laid off so but this video is more about your experience and how do we get to a better future rather than what's good for the few in the ownership class so uh shorter weeks have been proposed for a while and actually some uh have started experimenting with it I think it was was it Ferrari or Lamborghini just implemented a Universal 4-day work week or something like that um and then there's been experiments around the world with 4-day work weeks and some people are even proposing three-day work weeks now so part of this winding down phase uh the reason that I bring up uh the shorter work weeks is because as more and more automation tools take parts of your job you're going to be needed at the office less but this also is a really good opportunity for people to um have more time to like adapt to life after work CU imagine if your work week shortens to 4 days a week and then 3 days a week and suddenly you find yourself with more and more free time you're going to find a way to fill that time you're going to find new hobbies you're going to find new meaning and you're going to have a gentle transition away from you know the the 40 to 80 hour a week grind and so then you'll have this gentle taper where it's like okay now we go to a 30h hour work week then 20 then 15 then 10 and then by the time you're at a 10-hour work week you're you're mostly out the door uh and so that's kind of what I what I hope we see um for companies that can I think it would be wise for companies to adopt that trajectory and let me tell you why um because this gives companies an opportunity and incentive to also begin implementing that that that automation so imagine you're a CEO of a midsize company and you see the writing on the wall and you know your employees are like we need to keep our jobs blah blah blah and of course like you know there's there's all kinds of ways to approach that but imagine that you say okay you keep your salary but let's go down to a 4our uh work week and the expectation then is you're using AI um to to maintain the level of productivity and then once you know everyone gets comfortable with that maybe in a year or two then you go down to a thre day work week and then you go down you know even further and by then like we'll we'll know more because it's possible that the frontier of automation will stall but it might not and another recommendation that I have for businesses um to participate ethically in transitioning to this is do not like get rid of the the back to office mandates like stop trying to go back to the status quo remote work is amazing a remote work allows people to move to economically more feasible areas and so like uh part of part of the transition to post- labor economics means that we're not going to have have to live in urban centers just to be close to work and so for me in the last couple weeks I just moved uh an hour away from where I used to live because it's like wait I have no economic need to live near a major city anymore and I don't want to live near major city because it's loud and it stinks and the people are all um ass hats because they're all imported from San Francisco and I got to say like drivers from San Francisco you guys are obvious and you're awful drivers especially in the rain um and you go too fast and you tailgate too much um this is a know this is a known thing anyways so I moved out to the country back to my roots where cost of living is lower the pace of life is better and we were like instantly happier um and like I want that for everyone and because we're because we're capable of remote work right now we should do more remote work but this is also a way that companies can work on transitioning to post labor economics so phase three will be um as that ramps up as the as the work weeks get shorter and shorter total unemployment or sorry total employment plateaus so total employment right now is still climbing although it's climbing more slowly than uh economists would like to see so once you see total employment Plateau it'll be a nice gentle parabolic Plateau um that's when the establishment is going to start to panic because they're like wait we can't just grow forever what's going to happen to jobs and a lot of the old School traditionalists are going to be like we need to get you know employment numbers up um meanwhile unemployment is going to continue to rise and so right now in America it's really low I think it's still around 3% maybe less uh maybe a little bit more I think it's less than 4% I don't think we're in the twos that would be like people would be going crazy if it was in the twos anyways so however as these layoffs continue as the need for human labor continues to rise we should expect total employment to plateau and unemployment to start to rise once you see those you you'll see neats so NE um that is not in education employment or training um once that rises and people see that people are just not getting back to work um the acknowledgement by the establishment of this new economic Paradigm will emerge and you'll start to see some people you know saying publicly that we need something new we need something else um they might not use the term post labor economics I'm trying to lay the groundwork with that with all of my work um but certainly I think that people are paying attention um so one of the key Milestones to pay attention to so that you know that we're in phase three is that politicians and the chairman of the Federal Reserve and you know mainstream media Talking Heads all start you know acknowledging this fact they say where Where Do We Go From Here we need a new economic Paradigm they you're going to hear terms like labor markets and you know uh Paradigm shifts and that sort of stuff when you start to hear that um coming from more mainstream sources um you'll know that we are very much in phase three they're going to be talking about social safety nets unemployment benefits that sort of thing and then finally um after that Trend if so if that trend is persistent and increases because again we're we are making a lot of assumptions um it's the the biggest risk here is that the frontier of automation stalls for whatever reason um but if it doesn't stall it's full steam ahead so phase four is once we get to the the place of full and true post- labor economics and so the the this phase of full and true post- labor economics is when cities states and federal governments all reconcile with the new economic reality that we are in you're going to start to see more talk about Ubi being necessary or UBS so Universal basic services and so um Universal basic services this is going to be stuff that like is kind of Baseline like utilities Power Water internet phone service that kind of stuff that's more or less equal um You probably won't see Universal basic services in the form of housing at least not for most people um and there's a good reason for that and it's Capital C communism which I'll talk about in just a minute because we actually really want to avoid full-on communism or socialism and I think you'll be surprised by the solutions that I have to propose but the hardest part about this is not the technical Solutions the hardest part about this is the narratives is the human aspect and even Sam Alman said this um in his Time Magazine CEO of the Year interview um I don't remember the exact question that he was asked but it was like he was asked like how do we solve the new Social paradigms and Sam alman's like that's way harder than AGI and that's almost identical to something that I have been saying for a while uh which is that like creating cognitive architectures is easy compared to the human component so the old social contract is this is the simplest way that I could say it the the current social contract is the government mediates the relationship between labor and business that's it that is the role of government um a century ago the role of government was a little bit bigger it was the role of government saw itself as the caretaker of citizens but because of neoliberalism the role of government has contracted to say the government mediates the relationship between labor and business but if labor is going away hence post labor economics what is the role of government and so we need to I'm not saying expand the role of government but it's certainly going to need to Pivot or transition and so the new social contract I have yet to find a good way of wording it but the current wording is government mediates the relationship between citizens and business or maybe citizens and owners I'm not sure anyways we got to figure that out I'm not going to figure it out on my own this has got to be part of a truly Collective Democratic conversation um but anyway so what does that look like all right real quick plug for my patreon so one thing that I wanted to say is that I have done some experimentation and uh integrated some feedback from the audience uh from my supporters and I have simplified my patreon so that now it is one tier it is the universal access tier one size uh fits all and at this tier you get pretty much everything um and the primary things that you get are the uh access to the exclusive Community the exclusive Discord Community as well as a monthly live stream Q&A that I've moved over to zoom webinar so we have a very nice clean professional uh format with a good Q&A polls and that sort of thing um so yeah real quick uh plug for my patreon now right back to the show and so so here's where I I talk about the the biggest problem so even if you can have the role of government expand and maybe you know like let's just do a quick thought experiment you go backwards in time and you say that the role of government is to take care of the citizens so that was embedded liberalism we got we get we did away with that and we moved to neoliberalism if you go back to embedded liberalism and you say okay well the government provides guaranteed income and guaranteed services and a lots housing and that sort of stuff that is just straight up Capital C communism um which you don't want to give the government that much power uh and there's good reasons that you don't want to give the government that much power because you need checks and balances you need a balance of power between multiple stakeholders so that you have this Dynamic tension there's a lot of game theory behind it there's a lot of economic theory behind it but tldr Capital C communism is bad uh you know Central management is bad nobody wants that I mean a few people want that but by and large nobody really wants that so but H if if we lose economic agency by losing labor power how do we have economic agency in the future if there's no labor market if we can't if we don't have a way of participating then to me like the the solution became obvious we need to be we all need to be part owners and so this is where I realized that a major major component of the new social contract is decentralized ownership uh it hit me like a ton of bricks all at once I think I woke up one morning and I was just like duh like this solution has been staring Us in the face um so decentralized ownership and I don't mean Collective ownership I don't mean like you know the the the nation like nationalized resources that's not what I mean at all what I mean is decentralized private ownership because and in some cases maybe Municipal ownership um but Dows decentralized autonomous organizations that might be one path forward uh public trusts might be another path forward local co-ops like Farms utilities and other basic goods and services could all be locally owned communally owned because the thing is is organizing an entire economy from the top down at a national level not necessarily good but if all the stakeholders who consume particular goods and services are also owners of those uh of of those industries that provide those goods and services you're going to get the benefit of local management local expertise better communication and those sorts of things so this leads me to an idea that I had called swarm Dow so for the Swarm Dow idea I wanted to uh basically I just had this like stroke of inspiration one and I like jumped out of bed and started talking to the autonomous AI uh community community leadership and I said guys I think I figured it out and I don't even remember what led to this particular uh Revelation but I was just like why don't we use a da a decentralized autonomous organization to steer the Swarm because in the work that we've been doing with um like the hos project the Haas the hierarchical autonomous agent swarm it was like okay we have the Supreme oversight board which is you know a set of agents that is there to do you know ethical steering and Mission based steering um but people are kind of lost when it's like okay well fully autonomous for what like still like even if you give it a mission who gives it the mission and then it occurred to me I was like people give it the mission like if we're trying to transition away from uh current technology or or current economic paradigms and Technology then like we use a dow or some kind of decentralized uh decision-making framework in order to steer the Swarms and so this is not like an official like fully launched thing that I'm doing um it's just an idea that I'm putting out there because I honestly don't have the time or energy to run any more projects or anything but I can help coordinate um so the link to join the um the the public Discord Community for uh agent swarms and that stuff should be in the description or comments so yeah jump on over and take a look at that um if you're interested in uh participating also connect with me on LinkedIn if you're interested in uh just chatting about uh this kind of stuff but um my dance card is really full I have more than 20 interviews scheduled over the next month um for my system thinking uh uh channel so quick plug for my systems thinking Channel used to be my neuros spicy Channel but now it's systems thinking with David Shapiro all right so so one thing to keep in mind about the Swarm Dow thing is that it is highly experimental highly speculative um so but it's just one idea um and I think I think it's a meritorious experiment I think that it should be done um now one of the biggest problems with all this though is the expertise Gap not everyone is an expert manager or qualified to run a farm or qualified to do half of the things that we would need to do like I don't know how to run a power company and I should not be put in charge of a power company even if I am part owner of a local power company but then like the solution seemed kind of self-evident to me because if AI is able to to dislocate that job then AI is able to do that job which means that we can just instead of hiring a human to do the job we hire the AI that replace the human to do the job and that we use the Dow to coordinate all so this is actually pretty similar to a um to an interview that I did a company called to T um so I don't know that their approach is the correct way but I think that they're on the right track so you the interview is way deep in my backlog so go look that up if you want um but it's to.net so t.net if you want to check out their technology um anyways so but the point remains if AI is smart enough to take the plant manager's job if AI is smart enough to take the water treatment manager's job if AI is smart enough to take the nuclear engineer job then AI is smart enough to just run these things for us on our behalf and then all we need is an economic stake in these things um either via blockchain technology Dow some kind of decentralized ownership model we don't even necessarily need technology um to do this like there are some existing you know uh Co-op models that exist today um in terms of corporate governance and I actually I'm going to talk to some of my corporate attorney friends about this because it's like this seems imminently doable but if once AI gets to that point it's like a self-solving problem so I'm pretty excited about that now um as we get down to kind of the last half of the video or so um I want to talk some about some more uh Concepts some more components of what I see as the social contract solution so the new social contract um is partly decentralized ownership partly redistribution such as Ubi UBS you know changing the role of government but I've also been fascinated by this concept of stakeholder capitalism so I know a lot of you like immediately cringed when I said that and for those that didn't let me explain why and it's kind of sus I'm not going to lie like let me tell you why this why I'm kind of surprised at myself for coming around to this so stakeholder capitalism its biggest exponent is Larry Fink who is the I think the CEO or founder or both of Black Rock So Black Rock is the is the biggest asset management company in the world I think they have like 7 trillion AUM assets under management maybe more than that I don't know but it's like measured in the trillions um and so he's been pushing uh stakeholder capitalism for while it's Ultra unpopular with the business traditionalists um it's responsible for stuff like ESG which is often blamed for all the wokeness in places like Disney and when you look at the at the performance of the MCU um after Disney took full ownership and you know went full capitalist on it like yeah they're not doing great um so but the idea is simple so current the current economic Paradigm is shareholder uh value or share shareholder capitalism so shareholder capitalism just says your your responsibility your mission is to maximize the value for shareholders and so if you're maximizing the value for shareholders it's who owns the stock you want to you want to you know get the stock price up and to the right you want to generate those dividends um and that's it stakeholder capitalism by contrast is you're trying to maximize the value for all stakeholders that includes customers employees vendors the environment and even bystanders even people who are not participating in your business in the production and distribution of those goods and services so like some of you might say well that's just that's just communism under another name and it's like yeah kind of um it's not communism with a Capital C it's not like Soviet Red communism it's like communism light for the capitalists for the neoliberals but what I want to challenge you with is what if stakeholder capitalism is part of the new social contract cuz that's kind of what we all want right like in principle and now I will be the first one to say that in that principle versus practice can be very different um don't get me started about Dei and autism but in principle stakeholder capitalism on paper looks like kind of what we want where uh where everyone including the environment is considered a stakeholder in the economic engines of productivity of goods and services so what if we can implement this correctly with decentralized ownership and new technologies to support those such as blockchain such as Dow maybe crypto I don't know but it's those are all kind of in the same category so just what if I like I said principle versus practice very different things but I think that these are some experiments that are worth doing so as we uh wind down uh the last part of this video I wanted to actually come up with some some very specific policy recommend recommendations at the city state and federal level so this is just to get the get the gears turning to prime the pump because as I was researching this video as I Was preparing to make it I actually started realizing like there's actually some good ideas about how we can pivot to post- labor economics what that path looks like so first and foremost let's start at the city level the local municipality so towns Villages cities uh basically every municipality everywhere can begin preparing for an urban Exodus as I mentioned earlier in the video um I myself left an an urban center because I just didn't want to be there anymore and I had no physical need to be there so I expatriated to um a much small much much smaller town with a different pace of life and different vibe um and I am like in it was instant I was instantly happier um and like I just I can't I I I want that experience for everyone for anyone who is stuck in the suburbs and stuck commuting I I wish that everyone who is stuck in that situation to have that experience that I just had of leaving the city and going to like live in the town of your dreams and just getting that instant change of like quality of life like man I cannot tell you and so like oh boy like do it if you can um so but but basically not only is this good for your mental health and your it's good for your financial health because you moved to a place with a lower cost of living this allows for everyone to make economic decisions based on efficiency and preferred Lifestyle Changes which that's going to pay dividends in the long run um and that is going to be part of the solution because part of degrowth part of circular economies is becoming more economically efficient which has uh compounding uh net effects UBS so Universal basic services such as Power Water internet those sort sorts of things those are best to be organized and operated locally which cities can play a huge part in so that might mean that the trash pickup becomes free that might mean that electricity becomes free at least within reason uh water becomes free those sorts of things because if cities can figure out how to provide those services for free or you know for free at at consumption obviously everything has an energetic and material cost but if they can provide it as a given service just kind of like how schools are provided as a service um the that could make cities very attractive to this Urban Exodus um and so then they attract more people they could attract more businesses and so on and so forth uh circular economies can also be best implemented at the local level so if you're not familiar with the concept of circular economies the idea is and I'm I've actually got a video um that I'm working on to explore this in Greater detail but the idea is that you reduce waste um you you create more local feedback loops of of energetic material um energy and material uses you make sure that all all outputs all waste output um waste output products have a destination to go so you reduce reuse recycle um you know the three Rs that we've had forever but you basically design the local economy around these cyclical uses of materials um and also to make uh make the most efficient use of waste energy as well these are best implemented locally Farm to Table is an example of of one component of a c ular economy um the full Lifey life cycle of garbage soil cardboard Plastics these are all things that are best managed locally so cities actually have probably the biggest role to play in preparing for post- labor economics if there's any Mayors or city officials in my audience please reach out to me I want to talk to you um I want to get your perspective and also like help out if I can I'm up to my eyeballs and projects so I probably can't help out but I want to hear from you so next up is State policies so state policies are a little bit more abstract but um one helpful uh audience member reached out and and pointed out to me that Vermont actually is I think the maybe the first or at least the it's the first or the only state that allows for legal uh acknowledgement of dows decentralized autonomous organizations I'm not a corporate attorney so I don't know whether or not that's true I haven't looked into it but it wouldn't surprise me because Vermont is really Progressive that's where Bernie Sanders came from I think so um but states have a role to play by Paving the way for acknowledgement and allowing um decentralized ownership models so maybe Vermont is the place to go to try swarm Dow to try some of these these um new co-ops where if you have locally owned um and managed goods and services and and whether they're Universal basic services or even for-profit companies or you know public trust land cops whatever um that's the biggest role that I think states have to play in Paving the way for post labor economics because if states allow for decentralized ownership and they create legal and Regulatory and economic Frameworks um you know like in their State Chamber of Commerce or you know the County Chambers of Commerce if they are paying attention to this and they start setting up those experiments then it can be a hopefully a very smooth transition from shareholder capitalism to True stakeholder capitalism with decentralized ownership um some Ubi and redistribution and UBS should happen at the state level as well again schools are a prime example um maybe some relocation and redistri uh sorry resettlement assistance so basically um incentivizing people to leave expensive uh carbon intensive uh you know Urban centers and move out to the suburbs move out to more Rural Life um you know but basically helping helping cities to U make that transition as well would be within the interest and purview of States um state congresses state legislature that of sort of thing and then finally at the federal level so the federal level this new social contract has to include all citizens so by virtue of that this new social contract has to be negotiated in part with the help of the president of the United States and the Congress and then this of course this this applies to the federal level of um All Nations France Germany blah blah blah EU as well um now one thing so I just want to address this real quick many people say like Dave you don't talk about other countries as much that's because I don't live in other countries and I'm not as familiar with them um I would love to uh stay in another country like honestly if I could get an EU passport or at least you know a long-term Visa or something I would love to live in Greece in France in Spain in Italy even in the Ry and Germany um but I'm just not as familiar with other countries um and also like I am very aware that I have a very Western Centric view why because I grew up in the west um anyways so we do have twoe two precedents for presidents um leading the charge in negotiating new social contracts both of whom were Roosevelts um at least the two examples I'm going to use so there was Teddy Roosevelt with the square deal so Teddy Roosevelt is famous for the trust bustering that he did and so the square deal was trying to renegotiate the relationship between um the you know the Barons the the monopolies and everyone else and then Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal was in some respects bigger um and kind of more of a transition to like hey let's let's make things a little bit better um so did I say fair deal or New Deal Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and so now we need what I call the Fair Deal which is like the Fair Deal is the new social contract that it has decentralized ownership and stakeholder capitalism at its heart anyways these these negotiations will need to happen at a national level and and when I say Federal level I don't mean just like the federal government I mean like all all citizens all voters um all stakeholders will need to be participating in this negotiation and finally you might be wondering okay timelines when is all this going to happen uh I'm I'm not going to say that it's anyone's guess because we're not really guessing anymore there have been multiple sources and and some of these with with a lot of vested interest um in getting this right and so the two primary sources that I pay attention to right now and of course there are plenty out there there are more more sources out there but these are kind of the two more credible sources um one is the IMF so you probably saw my other recent video about the IMF report predicting 5 to 20 years um to have AGI kind of dislocate all jobs um and then the other one is Goldman Sachs which if I remember correctly Goldman Sachs predicted 2027 to 2028 is when we start to see Unemployment uh permanent unemployment Rising sharply so that's that dovetails nicely with the 5year timeline so basically kind of what I think is we're going to see is within the next 5 years we're going to see a major transition to this new paradigm I'm not I'm not saying that you know uh we're going to be at 0% employment in 5 years but what I what I am saying is that much of what I've discussed in this video will be um if not fully implemented then I think that the that the reality will have set in and so basically kind of the way that I the way that I word it is um we should expect a gradual transition of the frontier of automation basically starting yesterday starting 2023 um I think history will will record 2023 it's kind of the last normal year 2024 we'll see uh kind of the the the beginning of a transition from an early adopter phase to an early majority phase so basically adoption of any new technology follows a bell curve and so we are you know before now it was in the The Cutting Edge you know the the the people people that are just at the at the front at the Leading Edge of everything we're in the very very early adopter phase and I think 2024 we will see this is going to be the pivot to the early majority um and so there's going to be laggards there's going to be industries that um are going to benefit a little bit less from AI there's going to be regulatory resistance there's going to be status quo resistance so as I've mentioned in other videos um you better believe that doctors lawyers and politicians are going to resist being replaced as any human would you know we have a preference for the status quo but eventually the economic pressure is going to undercut and kind of force a change now hopefully they don't sabotage the change as we saw with the Hollywood uh the writer Guild they're just basically sabotaging the the change um in in the most conventional classical sense of the word sabotage um basically like kind of throwing their shoes into the into the wheel workor to try and gum it up and slow it down even though the change is inevitable so thanks for watching hope you got a lot out of this let me know if you like the new format like subscribe etc etc you know the drill cheers

Channel: David Shapiro

Views: 132,441

Keywords: ai, artificial intelligence, python, agi, gpt3, gpt 3, gpt-3, artificial cognition, psychology, philosophy, neuroscience, cognitive neuroscience, futurism, humanity, ethics, alignment, control problem

Id: T3O_BNexdEg

Length: 39min 2sec (2342 seconds)

Published: Mon Dec 25 2023