How Did the Stock Picks Perform?

[Music] welcome everybody to navigating the mine field where we look at everything to do with uh mining stocks macro Gold Silver and crypto as well and as ever it's my absolute pleasure to say hello to Eric hey Roger how you doing today doing very well very well indeed now today we are going to be talking about some names so as usual I'd like to take this opportunity to say that nothing you're going to hear today is investment advice it's all for engagement and entertainment purposes only if you are going to invest do your own research work out what your risk tolerance limits are the reasons for investing and then invest accordingly now with all that said um what i' love to do this this week is that we've been going for just over seven months and it's about six months since we did a recording around about the 5ifth of December where we highlighted a few names so I thought what would be really interesting to do today is whilst looking at this this sort of wide mining space just to revisit some of those names to see how they've done particularly in this moment today where you know Gold's been in that 2300 to 2400 range silver di back below 30 so everything is sort of consolidating so I think it's a nice time to have a look and see how we've done how you've done how the picks are going some have been good some have been bad uh I think we I think you've done some uh some pretty uh pretty good work on these so and just before we do that um you know how do you feel about the overall um market for the mining stocks gold silver because for now it's just taking a breather isn't it I think so um it's a great time for us to check in on the names because um you'll see on some of the individual picks that we've had uh there have been more winners than losers there's really one uh glaring underperformer and one glaring outperformer but I think it's a great time to revisit the names because again you know when we started the show the idea was like Hey we're taking a stab at starting to talk about a space that everybody hates uh nobody has respect for it's been down for over three years and you know we if we're turning into a bull this is all just this isn't even started yet my thoughts like on gold which is the underpin of this where we talked about once we get that 2100 close or above that on the the monthly which we got and that was just you know officially what a couple months ago uh two and a half months ago so that is a huge breakout in gold gold made a big move up to 2400 it's been in a breather but like I said my minimum Target over the course of whatever I had said you know 12 to 18 months maybe 9 to 15 months was 2700 to 3200 and it's trading perfectly to go in that trajectory so I think we're in the spot where like if you didn't take it seriously before we've had some evidence that you should take it seriously now when you look at if you look at gold versus gdxj those Junior Gold Miners what's interesting is that um they pretty much performed the same from the 5ifth of December in percentage terms but what's tended to happen I think this has been true of the mining stocks in general is that when gold goes sideways the mining stocks tend to have a little bit of deflation they tend to go down a bit so you've seen this period where overall gdxj and gold are roughly the same but there was a period sort of in that you know in the first phase where we actually see saw the mining stocks kind of significantly underperform the gold price whilst the gold price was going sideways and I think that's been the problem and you know we talked about it just before we got on in that it's still a difficult space you know we we've seen recently it was Nevada copper um has filed for bankruptcy in the last couple of weeks even though we've seen Copper at the alltime highs this is a sector which for many many many years has been starved of capital has had to leverage itself up and it's got to work through a lot of those costs that and you know cost that they're still holding and at the moment they haven't actually had the investment to pull the stuff out of the ground to take advantage of these these really nice prices yet so that's still very much for those who can weather the storm that's still very much in in in the future therefore this is still a good opportunity well everything is still very cheap if you go that's why you know going down the rung on the market capitalization not all of your viewers it's not appropriate to be buying you know $10 million uh market cap companies or 20 or three uh which you know we have we have have deals that like at the Gold investment letter um we we've been funding and getting warrants in like these penny stocks and it's funny it's ironic because I'm coming out to my people saying you know there's so much value here it's like a value play that is a penny stock on the Venture exchange because some of them have been building up and maybe there were predecessor companies or whatever they've been building up resources for decades spending money in people to get them to a point where like you know that they've got x amount of gold or silver or platinum or whatever there's still work to do to make it a mine but they've done a lot you know most of these are trading at massive discounts to paid in capital right massive so the lower you go on the rung but then again like we talk about the sideways move with gold now the junior miners are cooling off uh the gold miners are are cooling off but again a month ago they were 15% higher and moving ahead of the gold price so there's no question that uh we will see the equities in the miners at certainly at certain times but overall in the market you're going to get leverage to the metal but uh you know coming off of such a rough run for three and a half years in a bare Market we have not seen any sort of like uh froth yet not even close uh um you know so there's going to be stints of performance and I think uh from today let's just say we're in June um when you get into the stronger part of the season for gold which is like September January is the best year of the month between that time frame you may have a little bit of a paradox where some of the underperformers like you know Nevada copper kind of dug their own grave years ago because they took on so much debt but those were operational problems um you know but they have a lot of copper somebody else will they'll repackage that in bankruptcy and bring it back and and and try to get that stuff out of there but on the commodity rung the base Metals some that I think are underinvested in and undervalued still nickel copper let's just look at those two there are so many signs and you could even get in uranium too where there's going to be a lot more left before that has a blowoff top even though the the early Money's been made where you're looking at Microsoft you Google Amazon meta these companies are now building and investing in their own nuclear fision and fusion facilities for power uh to supply a grid that doesn't have enough capacity for a race in the AI run um that's all that's all going to cause pressure for demand for Commodities we had from November until last month we had a about a 50% lift in gdxj not bad right so you know these Miners and stuff have actually been outperforming depending on which month you look at it uh a lot of General markets yeah look yeah let's let let's go through some of these names because you know we was more than names that we actually have talked about but we've just got six that we're going to show in the charts um and all those six there's one that's flat one that's down a lot and the rest are all all up pretty well so let's kick off with the ones that's down a lot which is i8 that one's down down 35% so it went from 161 to 1.05 pretty much a straight line kind of drift uh from top left to bottom right but that's the only one that's that's not performed any thoughts on that because this is still one obviously that you you like and um you know you're still presumably you're still GNA hold on to this one because that one's a turnaround story well listen I'm uh I am not opposed to saying cut losses and move on because I'm seeing something I don't like in this case this is like table pounding buy some I80 it is so fing cheap um I'm very amazed that it's backed down to these prices and there are a couple of reasons for why it's been an underperformer but this company has four Assets in Nevada for gold that are enormous that I mean each one of these could be individual companies they actually have too many assets to focus on but the issue has been twofold one is that the company's been working on a joint venture with a Japanese firm to develop one of their projects to get it closer to being a producing mine and that's been going slower than the market uh has been thinking is going to go into play which would cash up the company so in the meantime I think to fend off the conversations of the balance sheet starting to run low even down who I put him in there with I think he's going to come out of this with with I80 he's going to come out of this and with previous successes he'll be known as one of the better maybe best operators in in the business because uh I trust his ability and his his prowess in the space and that's very important when you're starting to get to these levels but they did a big flow through I'm sorry it was a bought deal financing not a flow through so a bought deal comes through with the Consortium of Bankers who knock the heck out of it down to price it and they do their games with the stock that that gets closed and we thought okay now the thing's going to go higher I mean right now it's like a buck and change us um but it was probably around a1205 when the bot deal was done and I thought you know I'm going to buy more because now it should clear up well it ended up that um Equinox gold which this was actually spun out of which is Ross Batty's company they had bought uh full ownership of their largest mine and had to come up with it was a lot of money I mean it was like 6 to 800 million bucks to get that all done and they decided unwittingly to a lot of us in the market or even I think I80 uh we saw an aftermarket print just 10 days ago of a 50 million share block so Equinox has been leaning on this thing and now they're cleaned up so you had a corporate seller from that spin out that decided to move on dump because they've got their own priorities that could be a sign of also you know a low um but it's so cheap Roger I mean with the asset quality that they have in Nevada and they're not a producer yet so you also want to look at that fact I mean this is a development Stage Company that can end up creating value by spinning things out by selling assets I think that this Japanese entity that they've been talking with on a JV uh is going to happen and it's also going to be really more favorable terms to I80 than the market is expecting so things can turn around fast I'm buying more stock today and you named the M the stock there because that's the second one is Equinox that's that Stock's only up 7% so that's the flat one it's gone from 528 to 532 you you think that now that that side of the operation that you were just talking about is complete that that's going to be advantageous to Equinox going forward from uh the lows that it shuffled down to in late February so we had it sort of in this uh yeah the low FES um but that stock went to 650 in a powerful run into early April until they decided to take over the rest of that mine and kind of put the brakes on because they needed to dilute and raise some debt and get it's going to be a long-term win there's no question um because it's a very big mine a profitable mine and Equinox is moving towards a million ounce producer per year and that was one of their big bigger picture long-term strategic move so they sort of bit the bullet which is why that is underperformed since early April but it was off and running and so um they need to let that clear out a little bit but I think that during the correction in the gold miners what'll happen is Equinox could be uh it could either start to lead a run because it is ready and it's digested a lot of the dilution already or it could be a a light lager but then it will be a leader in this space like in that you know mid-tier producer area because they've gotten everything it'll be all tightened up let's call it by the Fall um that I think Equinox will be an outperformer so now is a a really good time to be just you know accumulating great and that then we'll move on to um some of the silver names because in third place up 6.7% which actually would be normally considered quite a good move over six months but we're looking for you know doubles triples quadruples Etc but um silver silver storm has gone from 01032 to 01101 that's roughly a 7% rally so n the silver names you know Silver's up over 20% in that same period so again underperform in the same way gdxj has underperformed the gold price but um what do you think silver I mean this is one of those OTC plays isn't it yeah this was the smallest market cap play uh that we had brought up so you're sitting at a US less than it's right at about a 50 million doll market cap and um the stock actually again you know this is another one where it was 30% higher like 3 weeks ago so it was hitting new high this is the pullback on higher highs and higher lows the way that I look at silver storm is this they've got two very attractive assets um very Advanced silver primary assets it's very difficult to find silver primary companies um at any stage much like you know just producers of silver always have some sort of byproduct but silver is usually a byproduct of other metals so it's hard to find the Pure Play silver storm is a pure play they had bought the uh the first mine that first Majestic ever built in Mexico that can go into production for something like six or S million us not a lot of money they're they've been Drilling and exploring around that to tighten up their resource to get it ready to go back into production and then San Diego has got you know something in the neighborhood of $2.5 billion in sidu silver in the ground which is not insubstantial and I believe that they've got interest in that asset uh from some foreign entities the only negative on Silver there's two negatives on silver storm one is these operate in Mexico we just had a presidential shift and I don't know what that's going to do if anything you know in terms of making it a little rougher in Mexico the rough part of Mexico I've been looking for silver assets there for various companies that have interest in and uh you know a lot of part of the of the nation is dangerous so you have to you know balance that stuff out but silver storm has got a CEO who's very dialed in and they've been strategically very very good about they've got money in the bank I they did a a raise recently um and just stored up the balance sheet I think they probably have about 10 million in the bank pretty close to that so for that size of a company it's a good cash cushion you know you have large investors like uh first Majestic and Eric Sprout that own over half of the company my guess is that in a better silver market first Majestic will buy that back and buy the whole entity something like that the other negative is that they've got a lot of shares outstanding that's why I trade so cheap so they're going to need to do a roll back at some point I've actually encouraged them already to do it um but with what they have as a developmental stage pure silver play I look at this one like it is a very likely double or triple from here I'm not looking at it as something that could be like a 10 or 20x type of situation but I'm also not looking at it as like it's maximum going to double like a blue chip silver producer right so I think that silver storm is a buy still I would put it in the middle of the range of the companies that we have here because it is a bit smaller uh and you know they're but it's a great developmental stage story and so what you need is you need the money you see it go into the agnico Eagles it goes into the uh you know the larger s uh silver producers Pan-American silver the uh you know even in the gold side like the new monster Barracks we saw those companies hitting new highs just a month ago um those are the Blue Chips leading the market and then we get the trickle down so the lowest of the low Junior market caps have not seen much at all some individual ones as we saw it we'll see with like Phenom resources have done well but the next trickle down after you get the interest from people that have taken care of their Blue Chip positions will go to something like a silver storm and um and they've got a great handle on the operations they've got two big assets they're going to be a silver producer I don't think by the end of the year but in the first half of next year they're going to be a silver producer on a pretty decent scale for themselves couple few million ounces a year and if Silver's going higher it's going to be very profitable for them so I I still like it anything you can get on this under 16 Canadian which would be like 11 half 12 cents us buy it from there we go to another one silver core now we're getting into double digits this one's up 25% so it's gone from 2.73 to around about 3.4 not exact numbers but pretty much so close to 25% gain since the 5th um of December um it's getting some nice returns now and again all these like the last ones they've all pulled back off their highs well yes and it this one you know you're talking about uh two and a half three weeks ago was a dollar higher so that that would have shifted I think it was more than a 50% mover from our period of time but this is a great pullback I just bought yesterday um long-term call options on it again um I've got a core position in this one and this is another one even though it is a producer I look at this one like a lower risk mid-tier producer um that has had in the past I believe the I'm just going to confirm it while I'm on here but I believe this stock yeah it it just it wasn't long ago it was in the 2020 2021 it actually you know hit nine bucks us so you're talking about a triple from here it's been even higher than that going back from 2011 11 and this company's got you know it's an asian-based deal so you have that component but they've uh they've operated in a way that's very capitalistic they've got a great balance sheet they're making moves acquiring new assets they're growing they're producing assets they're cash flow positive they're earning money and I see this as uh close to it's going back to nine bucks eight n bucks and then we'll see when it breaks that high goes higher which I ultimately think it will but I mean that's a pretty big move and I think that could happen within 9 to 12 months and you're saying that you you're looking at some longer dated options so what sort of expiry are those options and are you doing the usual of buying them slightly in the money what style of options are to expire in sort of strikes do you look at I bought two one was uh the 250 options so they were already you know a buck in the money and I think uh it was like 135 so a 35 Cent premium and that go goes to January of 25 uh silver Corp doesn't have really super long-term leaps available otherwise I would buy those and then I also bought uh about a third as much or a half as much of the $5 January um uh plays yeah those are those are ones that I I I'm more comfortable as you know I like to go as long I go long term uh those those are slightly less longterm that I like so I didn't put like huge money into them but I have been sprinkling options on in the pullbacks with stuff like this uh you know along the way and I just decided to do that you know this week with silver Corp and uh you know like look you got 250 you've got 95 cents in the money I bought them for 130 135 so you're paying 30 to uh 40 cents and you're going to go dime for dime dollar for Dollar on any increase from here so I think it could be a levered play that I make some really good Returns on so on that basically what you're saying there is you because they're the money you participate in nearly all the upside because you're effectively buying into something which is got a very high Delta so for each penny that goes up your option will increase by close to a cent or whatever it is but the $5 ones they're a little bit more of a a lottery ticket for a bit of Leverage for a bit of a play and you know they have cost less but if he goes you know you kind of get get nice Returns on those in terms of percentage gains right and even the I have my core position in the equity you know the big money uh but the two and a half ones will move dollar for dooll so it's kind of way where you put up a third of the capital that you have to buy more stock and you should you know get a lever return yeah great so we're going to look at two more one um one is mcguan mining where we've obviously had um Rob MCU on in your interview one this is a stock which youve talked about pretty much since the beginning I think you mentioned it you know in one of the very first episodes but this is one which you know you've you've basically followed MCU mining for a long time you followed their their copper side of things the gold is effectively free based on what the the value was given on the CER by was it stantis or the others who bought into it it made a big move you know this one went even just at the end of February it was like under six and a half and it doubled uh going into May so now is the first real pullback from that like 1225 1250 high and you can get in under 10 again a couple of key points on that is that number one we've had a sector pullback so that's normal number two they did do uh did a financing uh it was a flow through so it's money that's tax credit at a higher price they can raise the money but it all goes into the projects in Canada which are the gold projects so they're beefing up their Tim's um operations and when I had Rob on the stock was higher and the gold assets were effectively free I mean you're talking about 130 to 170,000 ounce a year producer of Gold it's not huge but it's it's not nothing and you know they've they turned their operations around which you know last year calendar year was was nicely profitable they still run into Little hiccups every few quarters like on some of the stuff that they've got with operations and or beefing up like uh gold bar in Nevada I invested in mucu and copper uh a little over two years ago and it was somewhere around a 250 less than $300 million valuation for the muu and copper it's like the eighth or ninth largest undeveloped copper asset in the world I think at the peak just like a couple months ago they had over 20 some rigs running there full speed full stop he's met with the president of Argentina they're very bullish on you know the environment going forward um but they have massive partner so Rio Tinto had put in a ton of money in two different rounds stellantis number four car maker in the world the last round that they did was like 800 or 850 million as a valuation so if you're looking at mck uh which owns like 48% of muu and copper so this is what the number is uh mucu and Mining is trading at a $494 million market cap now they're also sitting on a bunch of cash right now too so Enterprise Value let's call it 450 but you know they've got 400 425 million or so is is the valuation from months ago that these companies put on the private company MCU and copper now here's one little tidbit that I don't know that this is the case so take it with a grain of salt I haven't talked to Rob about it but the last time that I interacted with him about 3 4 weeks ago he was headed on a two week Road Show and it was to the Middle East and New York regarding MCU and copper my guess is they're getting ready to spin that out in an IPO and it's a unicorn worth a billion dollars so not to mention the last thing I'll say Rob mcan's cost average this guy's put in over $230 million of his own money in this company and even with MCU and coera when he Stak that it was an $80 million raise he raised 40 and change from people like me at a not really like me I was a tiny investor in that deal but institutions and uh but he put up 40 of the 80 with his own cash he's put up 230 some in to get his ownership of almost 20% of mucan Mining and I think he needs my did the math a while ago but he needs like over $21 a share in mucks to break even and he's been working on this night and day killing himself for us uh and there's a lot of good positive momentum coming for them and I'm excited about the fact that as I've gotten to know him more they have a ton of exploration assets that that company has interest in and owns that they never talk about because they're not the highest priorities that in a bull market is going to be worth a few hundred million bucks like they're going to start popping up and you're going to be like I didn't know that they had that so MX is a blue chip in the sense of um it's my third biggest position right and that that's up I'm just I didn't think didn't mention the numbers up 33% from 728 to 9.71 but 9.71 is still way below that 21 which is where it sounds like Rob wants to get it but still 33% is good but the best one um and I know you're going to caveat this one because of your interest in it but Phenom Phenom resources that one's up 91% from uh 0.235 I don't know whether you look at that as 23 and a half cents to 0.45 so just under doubled it has been higher than that obviously like all these others but that one's up 91% for Phenom resources yeah that's the uh Canadian uh dollars uh by the way so if you're us you know the the symbols pnmf uh which is like at a it's about7 cents of the dollar us to versus Canadian the Canadian price which is phnm caveat is um this is the largest investment I've ever made in my life so any benefit from people coming in I will benefit because I actually own um 9.7 million shares and warrants of theany company uh 2third of those are already bought and paid for shares the interesting thing is is that I started buying this company six and a half years ago okay uh took a break in a bare Market in vadium started to come in heavy again started a heavy position I never thought I would get this deep in it but uh June of 2020 so this is not something that just popped up like as a hot pick I've been building a massive position in this company for years and um my cost average is just below 40 cents Canadian so it's not up much from all the buying and pain and suffering I've gone through because it's gone up it's gone down whatever it hasn't hit yet but there um and and the fact is okay so it's up you know 91% um in that fairly short period of time but listen I so the caveat is I'm talking my book but also I'm talking my book with everything we talk about I don't understand why people would listen to anyone that seriously about their ideas when they don't have any skin in the game it tends to be something that I think is a good thing but you know take this with a grain assault but my my view on Phenom resources which is a v it's a going to split into two companies it's a gold world class now with five projects in Nevada Gold exploration company around the Carlin Trend looking for nothing but potentially massive new gold discoveries vetted by Dave matthewson who I believe is one of the greatest geologists in Nevada Gold exploration history and he's in his 70s he's all in with us on Phenom we've sourced uh these deals through him and his contacts we just they grabbed another uh uh asset recently called King Solomon and then uh claimed around that so it's uh 6.27 square miles uh this dobin project has got all the geologists very excited this is something that he found like 35 years ago when he was with numont they were finding ins soil gold anomalies uncharacteristic of anything you see in Nevada ever nobody's ever heard of the gold anomalies that were like over 3 PPM uh literally just digging up the soil which is crazy so they were ready to move forward on developing that as a big company numont until the USGS came out and said we're going to build a Wildlife Reserve right next door and Numan said we don't want any of that PR smoke they let it go Dave forgot about it thought that it was a Wildlife Reserve never went back in that area found out last year that it was back on the market and they decided to bail on the Wildlife Reserve and we ended up being able to acquire the best part of that asset uh that he already did work on with numont very interesting situation and the company Phenom is closing a financing a small one like tomorrow uh or Thursday at 45 cents where it is right now uh Canadian and it's just to drill that that asset Crescent Valley and do some work on King Solomon because up until this point we've been going for the big elephant which is under the vadia mass at Carland we've drilled 17 holes there it's very expensive because you're talking like 2,000t deep uh holes like it's they it's it's expensive it's deep these are more shallow but most of them are deeper in nature because we're looking for and the criteria has been if and when we hit I have no doubt in my mind out of four projects vetted by Dave mats he's found so many new gold assets as either a part of a team or by himself and he was one he was the biggest claim owner in the state of Nevada for like over 12 years uh this is going back about 20 years ago he still has a ton of this stuff um but he's known and renowned like nobody else I I've ever heard of with respect from his is Pierce out of the four that we have with him vetted there is no question we're going to find uh an exciting new gold Discovery so that is going to get spun out into its own entity because the vadium story here a lot of people don't know about vadium they don't give a about vadium because vadium has been down but vadium Redux flow batteries and vadium solid state batteries are going to be a critical component industrially of backing up the power grid and any and everything that people are doing in from nuclear to any other power source vadium industrial scale batteries clearly are the best longest lasting the lithium doesn't have a shot when it comes to the industrial side we're just seeing adoption of this coming up and I can't get into too many details right now but if people look at about three weeks ago the most recent press release around a patent application a third patent application around processing petroleum Coke Phenom has what I would call an area that I missed when I invested all my money it's the metallurgists the Metallurgy we have a couple of phenoms on our board that have cracked certain codes with processing to make things like petroleum Coke which is laying around at all these different refining facilities around the world that they they know it someday somebody's going to be able to separate vadium and nickel and the things that are in the petroleum Coke well that day has come and it's Phenom that is going to do it and I believe that we're going to be attracting uh massive partners and financing in that space we have the largest highest grade vadium asset in North America at Carlin and that's already you know that's done at pea stage more work to do but it's the best asset in the country in the in the continent and maybe in the world and then we have this stake in MK plus a Tokyo company 5% that has this solid state breakthrough vadium battery so you're turning this into not only a vadium asset play that's one of the best that could be one of the it will be likely the next vadium mine in North America and we need it because the Chinese and the Russians control 80% of this Market the price has been down we have excitement building like you wouldn't believe around this processing that can be very profitable at these vadium prices imagine if the vadian price ever goes up it's going to at some point so I believe that the vadium side uh will be very shortly looked at as the preeminent most compelling vadium public vehicle if you want exposure to vadium in the world it'll be better than just a straight producer like Largo or bushveld because of all these components on the gold side with all this exploration potential now you can buy them in two vehicles before they spin out and then get credit and get positions in both maybe I'm nuts Roger but I also I would never say this and I haven't said this before when I brought this company up what I believe is morphing here is the greatest single story in the junior mining sector that exists period any metal any material if I'm wrong and I miss some other ones because I watch a lot of these it's in the top three to five and uh I think the party look at the chart thing's about to do well I think the next time we update it'll be it'll be higher well I think that's so that's a good way to end it it's a it's a very positive we should hold on to that we've worked our way through from worst performing to best performing and this has been the best performing so yes we'll we'll I mean the whole point of this is we'll keep updating Etc and I know that hopefully in some of the future episodes you're also going to talk to some of the um the key players within this mining space as you have done already uh with with Rick Rule and and Rob MCU so hopefully we'll have a few more of the the Specialists um in lined up for you to have a chat with at a later date so yeah hopefully we'll keep keep seeing these stocks marching ideally bottom left top right we'll work on that thank you so much Roger great great speake you thanks a lot cheers [Music]

Channel: Real Vision

Views: 14,213

Keywords: Finance, Markets, Economy, Stock Market, Investing, Financial Literacy, Recession, Real Vision, Equities, Raoul Pal, Inflation, Stagflation, Monetary Policy, Money, Federal Reserve, Fed, financial markets, realvision, real vision podcast, macro podcast, monetary policy podcast, finance insights, inflation expectations, rate cuts, macro insights, crypto insights

Id: _UXDJVWN95c

Length: 37min 16sec (2236 seconds)

Published: Tue Jun 25 2024