This video was made possible by Hover. Get your custom, professional-looking email
address for 10% off at Hover.com/Wendover. About one year ago, in mid-March, 2019, Boeing’s
737 MAX was quickly and unceremoniously grounded. This was hugely significant in quite a few
different ways. For Boeing, the MAX was the newest generation
of their most popular aircraft series and its difficulties place a huge stain on the
company’s stellar safety and reliability record. Meanwhile, for the US, it halts growth at
one of the countries largest companies and employers, and then beyond that, for the worldwide
aviation industry, it puts 387 aircraft on the ground at a time of continued growth for
most every airline worldwide. Everyone knows why the 737 MAX was grounded
by now—faulty sensors would, in particular circumstances, indicate incorrect information
to software which would respond by sending the aircraft into a nosedive. What’s less known is how Boeing will get
the 737 MAX flying again. In addition to the 387 aircraft that were
flying prior to the grounding, Boeing kept production going for nine months after this
so there are about another 400 completely assembled aircraft sitting on every empty
piece of tarmac outside Boeing’s factory. Aircraft are not built to sit around. Except for the occasional longer period of
maintenance, most commercial aircraft won’t go a day in their lives without taking the
skies, but in this case, aircraft will have sat, abandoned, for more than a year by the
time the MAX is cleared to fly again. The process of getting those 800 aircraft
to the skies will not be quick or easy. Getting the MAX flying again is also more
complicated than just gaining the FAA’s approval for their fixes. One commissioned survey found that 70% of
American travelers say they will avoid flying on the MAX, even when it is recertified. Boeing has to persuade regulators it can fly,
and then it has to persuade the public it can fly. It will be a massive, monumental effort by
the company and the airlines. The first thing that we don’t know about
the 737 MAX’s return is when it will happen. When it was first grounded back in March 2019,
Boeing expected the aircraft to be flying again in a matter of weeks. Since then, the date of return has been pushed
back and pushed back and pushed back again. At the time of writing, Boeing says the aircraft
will fly again in mid-2020 but, just like every time before, it’s quite possible that
will slip further. Another unknown is exactly how, from a technical
standpoint, Boeing will fix the issues that caused the two crashes, in addition to a number
of other issues that have been identified since then. What we know is that, once Boeing is satisfied
that it has indeed reached a solution, it will notify the FAA and schedule a certification
flight. For this, Boeing will provide one 737 MAX
aircraft with any and all physical and software tweaks installed, and FAA pilots will take
to the skies to determine if these fixes are satisfactory. What will follow is a short, few day analysis
period and, assuming the fixes seem to be working, the process will be passed on to
the Joint Operations Evaluation Board. This is a FAA-run group made up primarily
of 737 MAX pilots from around the world who’s job it is to determine what sort of training
pilots will need before flying the 737 MAX again. These pilots will each try the fixes in a
simulator, in order to have first-hand experience, and then, after about two weeks, the board
will pass their recommendation onto the FAA’s Flight Standardization Board who will incorporate
the recommendations into a report. It is this step that is expected to establish
a tremendous hurtle to the MAX’s reentry to service. It is expected, on Boeing’s recommendation,
that the FAA will require simulator training before MAX pilots can fly the aircraft again. It’d be easy to underestimate how significant
this is. The entire MAX aircraft was designed around
assuring that pilots would not need simulator training. Boeing wanted the MAX to seamlessly fit into
the airlines fleets of older 737 aircraft so that the same pilot who flies a 30 year-old
737 can fly a brand new 737 MAX. That’s because pilot training is hugely
expensive and so a lack of need for it would, by extension, lower the cost of operating
the 737 MAX to airlines. Boeing boasted in marketing materials that
it would take only two days of computer based training to certify an existing 737 pilot
to fly the MAX. The push for limited training was even a major
factor behind the implementation of the MCAS system that caused the two MAX aircraft to
crash. They wanted the plane to fly like it was any
other 737 even though, without electronic intervention, it did not. Because of all of this, very few 737 MAX simulators
were made. Only two companies manufacture them: CAE and
TRU Simulation. These simulators are not a whole lot cheaper
than the aircraft themselves. A full-movement 737 MAX simulator is estimated
to cost up to $15 million and therefore the hourly cost to run one of these is in the
thousands. They’re just hugely complicated machines
to develop to the level that they accurately mimic the flight characteristics of a real
aircraft. Accuracy is what is needed in order to use
them for training in place of a real plane which, given fuel, cost airlines quite a bit
more to run, but, given the little prior demand for 737 MAX simulators, only 34 exist worldwide. Just, as an exercise, say 5,000 pilots are
needed to fly the 387 grounded MAX aircraft. If ten hours of simulator training are needed
and every simulator in existence is used 24/7, it would take two whole months to get those
pilots trained. In reality, pilot numbers are likely larger,
necessary training hours could be higher, and efficiency will be lower. Simulator training will be a huge bottleneck
to the reentry process. Many MAX operating airlines own their own
simulators, but many others do not. For example, Eastar Jet, a South-Korean operator,
does not and therefore needs to find simulator availability in order to get their planes
flying again. For the simulators owned by airlines, their
owners are undoubtably going to prioritize their own pilots for training first, so those
won’t have availability for quite a while, while among simulators owned by training centers,
these centers are much more likely to want to please a huge airline like American Airlines
than tiny Eastar Jet. Many of these smaller airlines are going to
be at the end of a long list to get their pilots trained. Even the big airlines will be sending their
pilots to all corners of the globe to get simulator time. Fiji Airways, for example, owns a simulator
in Fiji and will quickly be able to train all their pilots, and therefore other airlines
are lining up to pay big money to use it. Other simulators with availability also exist
in Iceland, Panama, and more, so airlines are scouring around the world for anyone who
will give them hours. This is all, of course, though, dependent
on what exactly the FAA Flight Standardization board decides is required to train pilots. Sometime soon after the conclusion of that
phase in the process, the FAA will issue an airworthiness directive. This is the official order that says, for
one, that the MAX can fly again, but it is also the final and definitive document outlining
what steps airlines need to take in terms of aircraft modification and training so their
specific aircraft and pilots can fly again. This directive, though, does not mean work
is over and the hundreds of grounded aircraft can fly again. Quite the opposite, in fact. This is where the real work begins. All of the 387 grounded aircraft have been
just sitting there, largely abandoned. Keeping them each in the same state of maintenance
as an aircraft actively flying in a given airline’s fleet would be hugely expensive,
so most operators have largely left their aircraft be. Therefore, each aircraft needs to go through
a process of testing all systems and components, in addition to a deep clean, to be sure they’re
truly ready to fly. They also, of course, need to have Boeing’s
revised software installed. This whole process is expected to take, for
each aircraft, up to two weeks. As soon as airlines know with relative certainty
the timing of the MAX’s reentry, they’re likely to shuffle resources around to dedicate
as many mechanics as possible to aircraft reentry. That could mean delaying heavy maintenance
on other aircraft. Boeing will also have to go through an even
more exhaustive process for the 400 or so MAX jets that they built since the beginning
of the grounding that now sit at their factories undelivered. Each of these aircraft are at a stage just
short of completion. They’re built, for the most part, but still
significant amounts of work need to be done before they’re ready to be delivered to
customers. Clearing that backlog is expected to take
about a year. Following this, airlines will need to rework
the MAX into their schedules. If the reentry happens during the most profitable
summer season, one could expect this to happen quite quickly, possibly even with airlines
scheduling extra flights given the extra capacity. If its in the less busy times of the year,
though, it could be a while before the MAX is fully reincorporated into airline schedules,
which are planned sometimes years in advance. The biggest unknown, though, happens when
the MAX is back in service: will passengers fly on the beleaguered aircraft? History says yes. After other popular aircraft have been grounded
in the past for safety reasons, there has never been a serious issue with a consumer
boycott of the plane type, but passengers do have something that they didn’t back
decades ago in similar cases: information. For one, never has an aircraft grounding been
such a media event. In addition, before the last few decades,
flight bookings typically happened through a travel agent and the consumer wouldn’t
really know which aircraft type they were booked on. Nowadays, booking online, aircraft type is
clearly displayed and, given the choice, a consumer might choose to fly on other aircraft
over the MAX. Finally, social media has the power to escalate
groupthink in such a situation. One video of a passenger having an anxiety
attack upon leaning they’re flying on a 737 MAX could go viral and cause mass anxiety. Boeing is preparing for all of this. They’ve been developing a plan for how to
respond to passenger anxiety anywhere from during the booking process to inflight. Part of the plan includes monitoring social
media and, if a passenger is publishing concerns inflight or in the airport, responding to
this digitally and notifying flight crew about the individual. They also plan on having employees distribute
small cards with information on the aircraft’s safety and the changes to anyone anxious,
in addition to creating explainer videos for those who want to learn more. Boeing will also no doubt spend huge amounts
of resources conducting a public information campaign to quell concerns about the aircraft
because, if passengers won’t fly the aircraft, airlines won’t buy it. Truly everything is on the line for Boeing
with this reentry. The aircraft is Boeing’s cash cow and the
entire company is centered around it. What’s just been described is only the plan,
and if any step in it fails, then the entire process fails. Few things have gone to plan with the 737
MAX so far, so the stakes for Boeing have never been higher. There are certain things that delineate the
level of professionalism one is perceived to have online, one of which is certainly
their email address. Having an address ending in gmail or outlook
or icloud just looks amateur, especially given how easy it is to get an email address ending
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I'm suprised u/WendoverProductions didn't mention the European and Chinese counterparts of the FAA in the process. I believe they must approve the aircraft as well before it can fly again and have already made clear that they wouldn't take the FAA's word for it anymore.
A Wendover video about the 737 MAX. The madman finally did it!
If you consider the huge amounts of money and resources this will cost, one gas to wonder, if it is still worth it.
Oh and btw, if there is a a single crash in the first year of so of tge MAX flying again, this will be it's end for sure.
Have there been any new orders since then?
I'm not going if it's a Boeing.