How Bitcoin Will Hit $1M By 2030

in today's video i want to seriously consider this crazy idea that bitcoin will reach one million dollars a coin by 2030. and this isn't even my idea one of the world's most respected hedge fund managers kathy wood believes that this will happen billionaire co-founder of paypal peter thiel agrees with her there are so many others billionaires like elon musk jack dorsey mike novogratz the winklevoss twins who all believe this crazy theory is possible now before you laugh this idea off and say not gonna happen let me share with you some data some facts and statistics that supports this theory because the idea of the million dollar bitcoin is based on another idea which is scarcity now there's only ever supposed to be 21 million bitcoins in all of existence but it will take us another 118 years before we mine all the bitcoins and before all 21 million actually exist that will take us to the year 2140 but as of today over 90 of bitcoins entire supply already exists it will take us over a century to get access to just the other 10 but here's what's crazier if all the world's millionaires decided to buy just one bitcoin they wouldn't be able to because there's not enough to go around according to credit suisse as of 2020 there are roughly 56 million millionaires around the world which means each millionaire would only be able to buy a little over a third of a bitcoin which is technically wrong because as of today there's more millionaires and more importantly roughly 20 of bitcoins entire supply has been lost forever something like 4 million bitcoins will never be recovered which means the real supply of bitcoin is closer to 17 million which makes it that much more scarce so in today's video i want to talk about some of these facts and data points that support this crazy theory of the million dollar bitcoin by 2030 i'm excited let's get right into it hi my name is andre chick hope you're doing well come for the finance and stay for the crypto so right now bitcoin is worth about forty two thousand dollars and it's market cap about eight hundred billion dollars here's what it's going to take for us to get to a million dollar bitcoin we would need to 25 times our investment and the market cap at that point would be worth closer to 20 trillion dollars which is an insane amount of money just for reference here's what a billion dollars looks like next to a couch and a group of people that's a lot of money but it's not a trillion here's what a trillion dollars looks like next to the white house and a football field it's also a pretty accurate representation of how much bitcoin is worth today rounding up but that's not 20 trillion we need to get to 20. and incidentally here's what 20 trillion dollars looks like next to the statue of liberty and skyscrapers full of money that is an insane amount of money credit to visual capitalists for the reference but to go from this to that in just eight short years seems pretty impossible but now let me share with you some data about how it might actually happen the first thing we have to talk about is how much money it actually takes to move the price of bitcoin because the idea of the million dollar bitcoin is flawed if we're looking at it through the lens of market caps like i used to and i know so many people do because even though a market cap is supposed to tell us how much money is in the entire system it doesn't and it's kind of confusing all a market cap does is it takes the current supply of something and multiplies it by the current price which is the last known sale price that's all it does for example right now bitcoin's market cap is roughly 800 billion dollars it does not mean though that 800 billion dollars worth is inside of the bitcoin ecosystem and if bitcoin goes to zero tomorrow it does not mean that investors will lose 800 billion dollars worth of value all it's doing is taking bitcoin's current price of 42 700 and multiplying it by the current supply outstanding which is 19 million coins to get the implied value of 800 billion dollars the implication though is that if you were to sell all 19 million at 42 700 you would get 800 billion dollars which you wouldn't because if you were to sell all of it you would affect the price on the way down that's why bitcoin's value is not its price or its market cap a perfect example of this is the stock market apple's market cap right now is 2.78 trillion dollars and the way this number is generated is it's taking all of the stocks that are available in total and multiplying them by the current price of apple to get 2.78 trillion dollars but it does not mean that apple has 2.78 trillion dollars worth of stuff there's also the price to earnings ratio right which apples right now is over 28 which means investors are paying over 28 times the price of what it's earning per year for the opportunity of investing in apple because they expect apple to grow and make more money in the future it's crazy misleading how this works but i guess it's kind of like a good magic trick where you see how i'm showing you all these cards right here watch sometimes less is actually more that's not a good magic trick but you get the idea right now you can technically start a billion dollar company with just a dollar all it takes is for you to create a company with a billion shares outstanding and sell one share to someone else for a dollar and that would give you the implied value of a billion dollar company now bitcoin does not have a p e ratio because it's not a stock and it's not a company but the logic is very close and you don't need as much money as you think to move its price and the best evidence of this was on december 20 2020. it all started when tesla bought 1.5 billion dollars worth of bitcoin it was then on december 20 2020 when elon musk asked michael saylor if it was even possible to buy a billion dollars worth of bitcoin and that's when people started to buy the rumor that maybe elon was getting into bitcoin that's when i knew the price would skyrocket which is exactly what ended up happening in q4 of 2020 that's when tesla and elon bought bitcoin but the world didn't officially know about it until the sec filing which was february 8th 2021 and check out what happened to the price bitcoin opened the day of the tweet at 23 000 but by the time it was officially announced on february 8th bitcoin was up to 48 000 it more than doubled so in the span of a little over a month did people really spend over 430 billion dollars on bitcoin to double its price there is no way that happened the real dollar amount was a lot lower and to figure it out would be impossible without knowing each and every single transaction but theoretically it would be as little as 10 to 20 percent of its market cap which means instead of needing 20 trillion dollars we might only need two to four trillion dollars in inflows to make a million dollar bitcoin possible now as of right now that averages out to 96 months in the next eight years which would break that down to 21 billion dollars a month which is still a lot of money but it's a lot more doable than what we had before and just for comparison right now we are inflowing about two billion dollars a month and that's being very favorable to bitcoin which means we are off by a factor of 10. so that means it's gonna be pretty impossible to get to that point in the next eight years or will it there are some catalysts that might make it happen please keep in mind that some of these are completely subjective but they're relatively conservative in relation to what they are but within the next eight years bitcoin will either completely disrupt or play at least a conservative role inside of these eight major markets credits to yasin on twitter for this one and the first is the remittance market this is where we send money from one country to another like we did to help ukraine this is slow it's expensive it's closed on weekends and bitcoin is undeniably the better system than we have today if bitcoin can capture 50 of the remittance market that would add roughly 300 billion dollars to its market cap or 14 000 a coin number two is a big one this is the emerging market currencies this is referring to what's called the m2 supply of money this is all things like cash physical coins checking savings accounts in other words money that is easy to convert and the emerging part is referring to countries that are transitioning from development to modernization a good example is the chinese remnb the russian ruble the brazilian real the indian rupee things like that this is where bitcoin could be a good proposition for store of value now if bitcoin can capture 10 of the global market here this would add 2.8 trillion dollars or roughly 133 000 a coin to the value of bitcoin and that's excluding the top four countries of emerging currencies the third is the economic settlement network this is where banks send money to each other and all of this happens digitally but at some point they'll want to settle in a final currency which is usually the dollar but it doesn't have to be it could be a digital currency like bitcoin and if bitcoin could capture just 25 of the market share here that would add 3.8 trillion dollars or a hundred eighty one thousand dollars a coin a fourth market is nation state treasury and you can think of this as the cash reserves of a country or like its little emergency fund and if bitcoin can capture just one percent of the global market here that would add another 3.8 trillion dollars or a hundred eighty one thousand dollars a coin a fifth catalyst is hnwise high net worth individuals if those people held five percent of their assets in bitcoin that would add another four trillion dollars to the market cap or roughly 190 000 a coin a sixth catalyst is institutional investment these are people like blackrock and if only two and a half percent of their assets were held in bitcoin that would add another 4.1 trillion dollars to the market cap or roughly 196 thousand dollars a coin a seventh market is corporate treasury bonds this is where companies raise capital by creating some debt and if only five percent of their money was held in bitcoin here that would add 4.2 trillion dollars to the market cap or roughly 200 000 to the value of bitcoin and finally eight that would be gold if bitcoin can reach half of gold's market cap at 5.5 trillion dollars that would add 260 000 to the value of bitcoin now obviously a lot of this is very subjective and we can play with the math and spin the numbers however we want but we could probably both agree that this is relatively conservative it's not assuming that bitcoin is going to take over the world but altogether the grand total market cap would be 28.5 trillion dollars which would imply a bitcoin price of 1.36 million dollars some people say 28.5 trillion dollars is just impossible because it is too big but to put that in perspective for you that is still way less than the global value of the equity market that's the stock market which is valued at 106 trillion dollars that would still be much less than the global supply of m2 money which is 123 trillion dollars that is still way less than the global value of the bond market which is 124 trillion dollars and that is still almost 10 times less than the global value of real estate at 220 trillion dollars so suddenly when you put it in that perspective 28.5 trillion dollars doesn't sound all that impossible especially over the next eight years so the next question is should you buy bitcoin before it hits a million dollars and the answer is absolutely not bitcoin is obviously a bubble according to three and four professional investors from a bank of america survey the guys from the big short movie think bitcoin is a bubble warren buffett and charlie munger think bitcoin is a bubble but all of those are just their opinions and they're not giving us any data instead here's some actual useful data to help you figure that out it's called the mayor multiple and it tells you bitcoin's historical price in relation to its 200-day moving average it doesn't tell you when to buy or when to sell it just gives you some historical context and right now it's making a pretty good case for buying bitcoin because any time the mayor multiple was below 2.4 that's when historically it's been a good time to buy anything above that is expensive now as of right now with the current price of 42 700 the mayor multiple is 0.89 so it's approaching one historically bitcoin's average has been 1.41 and it's been higher than today's mayor multiple 76 of the time so as of right now we're in that rare period of time where bitcoin is below its historical average which doesn't mean you should go to buy it but it does mean if you believe bitcoin will reach a million dollars someday now might be a good time to start dollar cost averaging which is kind of crazy to think about that people in 2017 were upset about buying bitcoin at 20 000 when now it's sitting in the 40s i feel like now we all wish we could buy bitcoin at 20 000 and i think that's going to continue to be true with each and every cycle and by 2030 i don't believe that bitcoin is going to replace banking it's not going to replace the dollar and it will not replace gold and it doesn't have to all it needs is a little market share from a couple different industries which is exactly what's happening right now to get us to a million everything is going exactly as it was planned i don't know whose plan it was but i like the plan let's stick with it as always have a wonderful rest of your day smash the like button subscribe if you haven't already go grab up to 250 worth of free bitcoin right here go grab your free stocks links are down below and then go track them automatically the spreadsheet link down below in my patreon love you thank you so much for watching i'll see you back here on monday and friday sometimes wednesday bye

Channel: Andrei Jikh

Views: 425,035

Keywords: bitcoin, million, ethereum, market crash, crypto, stock market, passive income, dividend investing, dividends, dividend stocks, crypto crash, stock market crash, bitcoin crash, NFT, how to buy bitcoin, cryptocurrency, robinhood app, best trading app, stocks, investing, investing for beginners, how to invest in real estate, how to invest in stocks, best stock trading app, credit score, andrei jikh, best investment, dogecoin, bitcoin etf, robinhood, portfolio, everything bubble, recession

Id: dvQeWyZBiqE

Length: 14min 46sec (886 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 11 2022