How a US-Saudi Defence Pact Could End the War in Gaza

this video was brought to you by nebula for the past few months there's been constant speculation about the possibility of some sort of Defense PCT between the US and its longtime Arab Ally Saudi Arabia now no one knows exactly what's in it but a report suggests that it would at least allow the Saudis access to the very latest American Military Tech and there's even been some suggestion that it could include a NATO style commitment for the US to protect the kingdom in the event of an attack while it originally looked like the deal would be scuppered by October 7th and Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza in the past few weeks Biden's team have apparently reshaped the deal and tried to leverage the prospect of a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel to convince Netanyahu not to invade Rafa and eventually withdraw from Gaza so in this video we're going to look at this prospective us Saudi PCT how it could change the Middle East and whether it's actually likely to [Music] happen before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos so let's start by explaining the deal itself when it was originally conceived in September of last year the deal was supposed to involve the US providing deep security guarantees to Saudi Arabia in exchange for Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with is Israel as part of the Abraham Accords for context the Abraham Accords are a series of bilateral agreements normalizing relations between Israel and a handful of Arab states they originally proposed by the Trump Administration but Biden has since continued the policy both because normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors would be bad news for Iran but also because it would free up America to devote more of its geopolitical attention and Military might to China and the Indo Pacific normalization with Israel would also give the US Saudi paack a better chance of getting through Congress given that Saudi skeptic Senators might otherwise be hesitant to agree to it however this original deal collapsed after October 7th and Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza even if Muhammad bin Salman might still be keen on normalizing relations with Israel the Saudi public has become increasingly anti-israel as netanyahu's assault on Gaza has escalated and they be unlikely to tolerate any outright normalization agreement in the current context instead the Saudi suggested a simpler Plan B agreement which would basically be a bilateral defense PCT between the Saudis and the US with the US also agreeing to help develop a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry now under this more modest Plan B the Saudis would still offer normalization to Israel but this time in return for Israeli acceptance of a two-state solution but the defensive paack wouldn't be contingent on Israeli agreement while this agreement might sound a bit one-sided after all the US doesn't really get anything in return here if Israel doesn't agree to normalization the Saudis were still hoping that Biden might be tempted on the grounds that even a bilateral deal would represent a political win for America over China which has been making diplomatic foray into the Middle East recently somewhat unsurprisingly though the Americans didn't agree not least because they know that a full-on security agreement is the best leverage that they've got over Saudi Arabia at the moment and therefore their best bet at bringing the Saudis into the Abraham Accords so they didn't want to give it up too cheaply instead the Biden team have apparently suggested keeping Israel in the mix but instead of just using the promise of a security deal to Leverage The Saudis into normalization they also want to leverage the promise of normalization which would be a massive win for an increasingly isol at ated Israel to convince Netanyahu to wind down his assault in Gaza as well as committing to a two-state solution now this might sound implausible given Israel's current positioning but as the Israel Iran Cold War heats up Israel's political class might decide that better relations with both the US and its Arab neighbors are necessary to deter further Iranian escalation and conditioning this deal on a withdrawal from Gaza might make it more palatable to the Saudi public and allow MBS to present himself as a protector of not just the Palestinians but the Arabs more generally now none of this is going to be an easy sell Netanyahu has proven to be remarkably resistant to American pressure so far and polling suggests that about 60% of Israeli Jews oppose the idea with just 29% in favor similarly the Saudis might not want to risk any sort of reproach me with Israel especially given that they've started referring to Israel's assault on Gaza as genocide recently nonetheless if this were to happen it would be a remarkably clever bit of politics from Biden not least because only a year ago it looked like his anti-saudi rhetoric had torpedoed the entire us Saudi relationship now if successful this deal would also be the latest in a series of Fays made by the us into the Middle East recently including a new tech deal with the UAE and a prospective partnership agreement with the Iraqi government potentially bringing the region closer to what some comment ators have speculatively described as a middle eastern or Arab NATO now this isn't a new idea it's sort of been floating around ever since the 1955 Baghdad pact which created a middle eastern equivalent to Nato called the Middle Eastern Treaty Organization or Meo comprising of Iran Iraq Pakistan turkey and the United Kingdom now this organization ultimately collapsed because according to then Secretary of State John Foster dullas the Israel Lobby blocked the US from joining the idea has been bobbing around ever since and enjoyed a bit of resurgence in 2018 when Trump announced a new Middle East strategic Alliance or Misa which would involve the six Gulf States Egypt and Jordan and would be primarily intended as an anti-iran alliance in much the same way that NATO is often framed as an anti-russia alliance now farfetched as it might sound some Arab leaders are apparently still keen on this idea in 2022 Jordan's King Abdullah told CNBC that he would be one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO at about the same time there were also reports that military officials from the US Israel Saudi Arabia Qatar Jordan Egypt the UAE and Bahrain were secretly discussing defense cooperation to push back against Iran now it's important not to overstate all of this and it's also worth saying that reports suggest that the new US Saudi defense agreement is more about granting Saudi access to the latest US military Tech rather than any defense commitment like NATO's Article 5 and various versions of this idea have appeared over the years just to be brought down by either intra-arab bickering or the difficult question of Israel but the final thing worth noting is quite how far us Saudi relations have come in the past few years during his campaign and the first year of his presidency Biden was remarkably critical of the Saudis he accused MBS of quote murdering children in Yemen and promised to turn Saudi Arabia into a prior State for the killing of the journalist and dissident Jamal kogi in 2018 in late 2022 though as oil prices were rising to politically unpalatable levels ahead of the midterms he was forced into an embarrassing U-turn and basically beg the Saudis to increase production and bring down Global oil prices instead the Saudi C production forcing prices even higher and sparking Fury in the White House in the past few months however as escalating Regional chaos has made the prospect of American Security guarantees increasingly attractive NBS has changed his tune and deal or not the US Saudi relationship now looks stronger than ever there's definitely going to be new developments with this 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Channel: TLDR News Global

Views: 188,690

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Id: g8x7II2B7OQ

Length: 10min 19sec (619 seconds)

Published: Sat May 11 2024