Has China won? How should Poland behave? Mahbubani, Góralczyk, Lubina, Zalewski [Napisy PL]

but my book predicted in 2020 instead of previous low profile we have new Chinese ambition assertive China being it belt and Road initiative being at competition in space being the Taiwan issue uh being a competition for semiconductors and so on and so forth so when sigin ping came out with his idea of Chinese Renaissance CH America wake up and we have a strategic competition no matter where you live no matter what you do your lives will be affected directly or indirectly by the largest geopolitical contests that has broken out in human history what Chinese did uh in the last 30 years uh was was spectacular in one regard it was a strategic restraint China could have used its Advantage its asymmetry um against Russia uh but it didn't China knows how to play Russia China knows Russia China knows something that bobo once called a pathological need for respect on the part of Russia so China knows how to handle Russia Poland should not be uh pro-china Poland should not be Pro United States Poland should be Pro [Music] po good afternoon and good evening um has China one that is the English title of K makani's book which Nova confeder has published for the Polish audience as if you are interested in the book please look at the commentaries below tonight we will discuss the question provocatively posed by Professor maani with um this um a distinguished group of experts um firstly let me extend a warm welcome to Professor maani himself he as um many of us know he is an accomplished Diplomat in from Singapore having served among other positions as the head of a mission and the president of the security Council at the United Nations trained as a philosopher he is a professor at the National University of Singapore and an author of of immensely important books known for their provocative and challenging perspectives take for example Kem Asian thing um which for many people in the west served as an introduction to political philosophies in Asia and an departure from the concept of the Clash of civilizations a concept developed by Sam Huntington um in the 1990s Professor maani um is joining us from Singapore a very good evening to you good evening it's uh only 10 p.m yeah it's all right um now allow me to introduce profor ban galic a person who needs no introduction in Poland um he's the first academic and Diplomat to bring Asar related topics to the center of the of debate in Poland his China Trilogy has become essential reading for those seeking to understand our our increasingly non-western World um the trilogy com comprising Chinese phic the great Renaissance and the new long march um narrates the rise of the new Global power professor galik teaches at the um university of wo the best university in Poland Professor galik it's a pleasure and last but not least East profor M Lina joining us from kco a political scientist at the oldest polish University the yonan university his expertise helps um Us in Poland understand power transformations in Southeast Asia with a particular focus on buma Myanmar noteworthy um are his influential books analyzing Russian Chinese relations in the 1990s and 2000s as well as the importance of Chinese peripheries in China's both foreign and internal policies meow thank you us thank you for joining us my honored I'm really happy and honored to be here um and my finally my name is kristofh marinesi and I lead the bo Institute an independent Asia focused think tank in Wu um simultaneously I serve as a member of the board at Nova confeder our host today I'm joining you today from New Delhi let me share a little secret with our public if I may our guests are not only accomplished experts but they also possess a great sense of humor all of them as I know them and I as I listen to them and I am sure it will make our discussion not only intellectually stimulating but a little bit enter entertaining as well um let us start with questions uh first question goes of course to the professor Mar bubani the author of H China One so that's the very good question um asked um originally I think in 2020 when the all 2019 so the Trump Administration was still in power um the covid pandemics um has just started and many things happened in the world since um 19 2019 or 2020 so if you were to answer the question today would your answer this be the same as 19 20 four years ago well first of all if I may call you Kristoff okay yes uh thank you very much for inviting me to this uh discussion I'm very honored to join this discussion and I'm delighted that my book has been uh published uh in Poland it's a great honor as you know I was I visited Poland last year for the first time in my life and had a wonderful time and I really admire and respect uh your country um but your question to me was uh what do I think about the book uh for I published the book in January 2020 four years have passed and I guess after four years you discover either you're completely wrong and if I was if I was completely wrong the United States and China would today be in love with each other and kissing each other and love you know having a great time with each other then my book would have been thrown through the dust bin but my book predicted in 2020 that for the next 10 to 15 years the biggest geopolitical contest in ever in human history will break out between United States and China and unfortunately I have been proven right and I can grantee you no matter where you live no matter what you do your lives will be affected Direct or indirectly by the largest geopolitical contest that has broken out in human history and the goal of my book was to wake up the world and to say get ready this largest geopolitical contest is coming down the road and those who prepare for it will learn how to step aside and will learn how to protect that themselves and those who don't prepare themselves will be trampled especially as you know when elephants fight the grass suffers this is an old Sri Lankan proper and my goal was to actually help the rest of the world to prepare for this contest which sadly is continuing to grow as I predicted uh in my book and frankly I think the rest of us who are going to be affected by this contest shouldn't just remain passive we should do our best the best we can to try and tell both United States and China that as you go head long into this contest would you mind paying some attention to the impact what you're doing on the rest of the world why should the rest of the world suffer if both of you decide to go on a head-to-head contest and I can tell you that the shter countries certainly many countries in Asia which had been anticipating this contest have me say okay let's get ready let's see what we can do and let's make our positions very clear so you can find for example that in I live in Southeast Asia the 10 asan countries have more or less made it very clear that they're not going to get involved in this contest they want to be very good friends with United States and by the way they huge reservoirs of Goodwill towards the United States in Southeast Asia as they are in Europe and we want the United States to remain in Southeast Asia but at the same time we also want to have good relations with China and we made it very very clear to United States and China that we will not choose that that we will be friends with BS and I think if the whole world can come together and tell the United States and China I mean as I do in the conclusion of my book The the world as we have today faces much larger issues much larger challenges like for example climate change and climate change cannot be solved by United States alone cannot be solved by uh China alone but the whole world's got to come together together so perhaps if you want to save our planet what we should do therefore is persuade the United States and China maybe temporarily at least press the pause button on your contest and focus on the common Global challenges that we have because at the end of the day it's important to remember that while we talk about all this geopolitical Doom and Gloom that we still live in one of the most promising eras in human history you have seen far greater human advancement in our time than we have in any time in human history and we can carry on this human advancement if we press the pause button on the geopolitical contest and that was why I wrote the book and sadly my book remains even more relevant today so let me um ask a question which is particularly um important in Poland in the context of the Ukraine war um because um you've um pictured um this situation brilliantly that the whole humankind should come to the United States and Russia and uh and China and say oh stop your contest but I think I read the Ukrainian War as a kind of um situation when um an attacked country comes to the United St States for help and the aggressor is coming to Beijing for um um um for um heal from their part so is the world behaving um in a rational way well you know um if when you talk about relations with China and Russia which you are uh suggesting uh if you read my book uh and you can confirm this with the Polish Edition I'm sure I say in my book very candidly there is no love within Russia and China I as you know there is deep distrust in Russia towards China you know in when I studied geopolitics in the Cold War the Soviet Union was up here and China was down here right and as you know the Soviet Union bullied China right guess what 30 years later Russia is Here China is here now if you Russia have bullied China 30 years ago and China rally become so powerful you say oh I'm so happy to see you become so powerful or do you remember that Russia has the longest border with China the country that is most vulnerable to the rise of China is Russia so when people talk of an alliance between Russia and China I don't know what they're talking about and of course you know lots of there have been lots of the Anglo-Saxon media has been saying consistently that China is supporting Russia but since you Kristoff are in in in India if you had to analyze it analytically what is the difference between the position of the world's largest democracy which is India and China on the Ukraine war now tell me who has increased Imports of oil more from Russia is it India or is it China India used to buy 0.2% of its oil from Russia before the Ukraine war now India is buying 40% of his oil from Russia so when you talk of a natural Alliance within China and Russia are you saying there's also a natural Alliance within China and and India and Russia so you know at the end of the day it's important to remember that China was a loser from the Ukraine war China has got far bigger challenges to deal with China has to deal with the the enormous pressure from United States and as part of the Strategic goals of the China was to develop good relations with a strategically autonomous actor called Europe and China wanted to see some distance between Europe and United States but as you know the Ukraine war has brought Europe and United States closer together and that's a geopolitical loss for China so and you and so clearly the Ukraine war is not something that China would have wished for so I think it's important to understand that in the field of geopolitics there are no black and white answers you have we have to learn to deal with enormous complexity enormous complexity and stop falling into black and white categories to try and understand the world of today thank you much for much for for for this um a very clear um analysis of the um Chinese position on um on Russian Ukrainian um war and then I would like to turn the um um to the to professor galic and ask about China itself um because I think it's crucial to understand um the stability of the regime or the government in China because there are two schools of thinking about China broadly firstly there's a school which um uh is saying oh China is a very long um has a very long tradition of civilization and basically is stable in its um let's say strategic posture in its um culture of um of doing politics and so on despite of regime changes and there is um the other school saying oh no um China is evolving very fast uh and departing from the M um from um um dening um liberalism um towards a more unpredictable um regime and shiin ping which school do you think um describes China best school of course not uh not the other one if I may I will answer the question but few words of explanation and maybe some reaction from Professor mauban because you are talking M mainly to the Polish audience if you if I read you well Professor maani you will share this following statements that what we are observing right now on the global scene is reemergence resurrection or Renaissance of civilizational States namely China and followed by India this is changing the global map and the the whole situation on global scale this is point number one point number two we are observing something which is not well absorbed not well received here in Poland and here in Europe a power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific uh and this is is undergoing until now due to the first factor that China India and so-call Emerging Markets emerged and finally the third statement that the eurocentric Europe as a center of the world which was a part of our education my education in our schools seems to be over Europe is declining and these all those things are under debate great debate here in Poland and what is something new and why we have kishor maani Among Us after for instance John M mimer and the other realists because realism was not popular in Poland due to one major reason geopolitic of ratel and German Third Reich if you are talking about lean's round you will be not popular in the country which was the victim and also witness of the Holocaust so we were not talking about geopolitics uh and these kind of things due to the uh second world war and the others secondly under the Communist system it was not allowed for us to discuss any Global issues we were under one dominion and finally when the so-called regime change or system change took place in early early 1990s also in our country the Soviet Union collapsed and the Eastern block we shifted directly toward the west because we were in the East we shifted totally toward the west and absorbed what the only hegemonic the only superpowers has produced liberal democracy and uh cons Washington consensus uh uh liberal Orthodoxy uh Invisible Hand of the market and only and this is why I am asking for Professor maub Ban's reaction before asking answering question raised by Kristof only after not even Professor mauban 2008 it was even at that time it was too late to wake up in Polish Elites I mean political Elites media Elites even academic Elites 2014 uh forceful annexation of Crimea and what we observe is the emergence of think tanks of Publishers of YouTubers ER talking about geopolitics uh nation states states are coming back only now that's why you one of these think tanks is is producing your volume uh this one on China so only now we are starting to discuss those issues but be careful you will be not so popular in Poland as for instance Peter Zan who is producing a idea that PX Americana was the best solution and probably it will be the best solution maani will be as a realist well on the out of our mainstream of discussion however what is important that you are kindly welcome you are part of our debate and this is something new which could be unimaginable 10 years ago when I produced my first out of this Tri Chinese Trilogy Chinese phoenic in 2010 first published nobody cared in Poland Chinese Communists will be superpower like your has China won no no one cared only now we are starting to discuss but the the the assessment is changing to the current political and geopolitical situation I think it is necessary to tell profor the Polish picture polish background where we are and what we are doing I don't know if Professor maani would like to answer this or give him some comments and later Kristof I will come back to the issues which you raised what has changed in can I can I I'm happy I'm happy uh Kristof if you allow me of course respond if I may call you ban you know yeah um um the I mean you're absolutely right I think it's important to understand the larger historical context because clearly the US China geopolitical contest is the one that we are focused on now is the largest geopolitical contest ever in human history because never never have we seen two powers of the size and scale of United States and China colliding with each other but equally importantly what you suggested in your remarks we are seeing also the broader return of Asia and it's important to understand the Asians make up 60% of the world's population and the West makes up 12% so the rest of the world is 88% so the West is 12% the rest is 88% and what's happening now is another fundamental transition in human history which is that we're going back to the return of Asia and I say the return of Asia because from the year one to the year 1820 for 1800 after the last 2,000 years the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India there was a natural state of the world now what happened is that the last 200 years of West W domination including P Americana was an artificial aberration so what we are seeing there is a natural return of History to its natural grooves and you see The Return of Asia and frankly I actually believe it is not a bad thing for the world because the W all the Asian countries are succeeding today not by rejecting the west but by embracing the West and and why why is China developed so well uh economically it's accepted Adam Smith's ideas on free market economics and he believes in markets now right when I first went to China in 1980 my God you were to Beijing you didn't see a single car all you saw was bicycles everywhere and you saw people living in little you know Huts in in Beijing very close to tanan and brushing their teeth you know with pales of water uh on the street I mean I saw the old poor China how did China transform itself it's Western ideas so if if there was a wiser Western attitude towards the return of Asia we can build Bridges between the west and Asia and we can work together I continue to believe because the Asians when as they succeed don't want to take revenge against their Western Colonial Masters revenge is far from their minds they what they want to do is work with the west and China is happy to work with uh United States China is happy to work with Europe India is happy to work with United States India is happy to work with Europe but at the same time China and India also want to work with the rest of the world they want to work with Russia they want to work with Africa they want to work with Latin America so and you know even though we are seeing this enormous uh return of Asia the end of Western domination of History this is not a sad or bad story this can be a happy story if we can all work together yeah and then I think we it's crucial to understand also the possible disruptions because I think from miow is somebody who analyzed from them very well about disruptions of this um connection between China and India um with the West um um Russian um Imperial politics is a kind of disruption um because theyve it just make um the complicated relationship between the US Europe China and India um and of course um the second let's say disruption in this picture would be also the Chinese politics of Renaissance SS not only of economic growth but also the politics of domination in the in the neighborhood um so miow how do you see this um disruptions in the um let's say a more harmonious um relationship between China and and the West well first of all once again thank you for inviting me I'm honored to be here and since I've been researching Russia China relations since 2006 I would like to focus on that aspect and I would like to start from quote from Professor makani's book it's a quote about quote because Professor quoted George Kenan who said that us Japan relation is an unnatural intimacy and I think we can paraphrase it to look at Russia China relations it wouldn't be intimacy but it's but it's certainly unnatural but it's it's a strong bond now uh and it's quite remember it's quite important to remember that Russia China relations have developed fundamentally in the last 30 years they they've worked out their differences and they are now they have never been closer to one another it doesn't mean that they love one another not at all but there is certain a lot of understanding and uh and uh and um yeah mutual understanding and empathy and what is also quite important is that um one of the reasons why this relationship succeeded was China's restraint and with that point I would like to paraphrase another part of professor makani's book uh which was um which focuses on on um on aspects which are um which are difficult to operationalize but intuitively I would agree with them U especially with the with especially with the concept of yellow perial which is quite well problematic for the West uh and it's a very I think it's a key Concept in understanding West approach towards China and I couldn't agree more with with Professor mahanu so if we follow this line of psychology then look if we if we then when we look at China Russia relations then what Chinese did uh in the last 30 years uh was was spectacular in one regard it was a strategic restraint China could have used its Advantage its asymmetry um against Russia uh but it didn't China knows how to play Russia China knows Russia China knows something that bobo once called a pathological need for respect on the part of Russia so China knows how to handle Russia and and this is I think one of the key keys to success in in in this uh in this relationship uh and in this regard when we look at Russia China relations maybe not that a Alliance I agree that this is oversimplification but there is a shared goal of um of undermining the US uh dominance uh and in this regard uh of course they differ in tactics but certainly they are aligned in this in this goal I believe that this is one of three most fundamental pillars of China Russia relations and now when we um when we look coming continuing on this psychological part uh what we learned from Prof professor makani's book is that we learned many things but one of these is that one of the biggest weakness of America is a it's it's it's um belief in exceptionalism uh and it's a very cultural aspect so I think that in the same regard we can say that one of China's biggest weaknesses is its sinocentric ISM uh its Middle Kingdom complex and now when we look at Russia China relations we can see that China was able to restrain itself but when we look at Russia China's relations with others it's not so um since Professor mahani is in Singapore um 24 years 14 years ago there was a famous quote by Yang J who said in Singapore no it was in Hanoi but it was a reply to Singaporean foreign minister that uh China is a big country and asan countries are small countries and this is a fact so uh by this kind of actions uh this is this reveals Centric ISM and this is one of China's biggest uh weakness um they so far they were able to manage that to handle that in relations with Russia but not necessar with other countries um and um and as for disruption as for christof's question I believe that um the way Russia disrupts is in a way um uh it's in a way beneficial to China's interest long-term interest because Russia disrupts the Western world it disrupts in Europe it tested the Europe sometimes the the outcomes are not necessarily the the one CH Beijing might wish to see but nevertheless um it CH Russia is challenging a common foe of of China and in this regard this disruptions are not necessarily that detrimental to to China's interests so um so it in a way it pays for China to have this spoiler to have Russia as the spoiler um because then Russia can do many things which China doesn't want to do or which is unwilling to do in public so in this regard there is a sort of Anton between China and Russia and it's certainly not based on love but uh but but it's it's based on on on Mutual understanding and very strategic object objective objectives so in this regard I believe that uh that um while these these disruptions are not that negative for for China if I can just address this question directly to um to pres bani because I think it's very interesting um because to be honest in the discour in Poland and in the west um Iran and Russia are portrayed very frequently now as a kind of Chinese proxies are they are they Chinese proxies well I think China will be very happy if Russia and Iran were Chinese foxies but I think the Chinese uh the ultimate you were talking of M shimer and geopolitical realism the the ultimate realist uh of any country in the world are the Chinese and by this is an Insight I got actually from Henry Kissinger you know I had two uh one-on-one conversations with him uh one in in October 20 18 when I was writing my book on has China One then I saw him again and uh October 2022 about one year before he died and again he reiterated his views on China which you can get by the way his book which is called on China is wonderful I would recommend every polish citizen to read it because if they want to understand China they should read kiss's book on China and and and you should yeah you know the Chinese always take the Long View you know they're not interested in what happens next month or next year at the earliest they're thinking what will the world be like 10 years from now or what will the world be like 100 years from now and so you know that's why when lot I give you you give a contemporary example everyone says you know China has Peak the China growth story is over China is having lots of problems yes yes yes it's having having lot of problems but I'll take a back with any of you that 10 years from now China's economy will be much bigger it hasn't stopped growing right even though the Anglo Saxon media thinks uh uh it has uh continued to grow so I can I can I can tell you that uh from the Chinese point of view if you don't understand the Chinese mind the most important thing to remember is that the Chinese mind is conditioned by 4,000 years of Chinese history now in 4,000 years of Chinese history what they what is genetically embedded in their civilization uh is the realization that Chinese people do best when there's Law and Order and stability Chinese people suffer when there's chaos what they call Lan and so the Chinese Chinese hate chaos so you know if if this is why the conclusion of my book has China W if the United States can come with a with a sort of a a geopolitical global framework that says hey okay let's agree on a common set of rules uh you can do well we can do well but let's agree on these rules and if you offer any package deal to the Chinese that that is that emphasizes stability predictability and Order they'll take it they they they're not interested in having proxies like Russia or Iran or so on so forth and it's important to remember that at the end of the day the Chinese will work with everybody and that's why as you know China engineered the deal within Saudi Arabia and Iran I mean if Iran is their proxy why are they linking Iran with Saudi Arabia no no what they want is calm stability because China is also as know now the world's largest trading power and you know when when you when the houis close the you know the Red Sea channels who suffers Chinese suffer there more exports going through the Red Sea Channel then then United States does right so clearly the Chinese if you give them a package deal that emphasizes predictability and stability they will work with it they will accept it but you see the reason the reason why this is not possible yet and this is why I say this very sadly the United States is so focused on keeping China down that it doesn't focus on how to cooperate with China and I think that that and by the way I can tell you privately that Henri Kissinger agrees with me that what the United States needs is is a long-term comprehensive strategy on what you want to achieve achieve with China because today what is unclear is that the United States is obviously taking all kinds of actions against China tariffs on Chinese trade uh suspension of Chip export suspension of chip technology but what's your end goal what do you want to achieve are you going to try and get the Chinese Communist party to collapse like the Soviet Communist party maybe it can be done but it cannot be done I can assure you cannot be done so in fact paradoxically the more the more pressure the United States puts on China and the Chinese Communist Party the stronger China becomes that's the Paradox so before I give the um um voice to Prof one clarification because I think it's crucial to understand Chinese politics um I me personally I cannot understand if Chinese is so um um focused on trade why they are so passive in the crisis in um um in the Middle East why they are not trying to um um make the trade Road via Red Sea and suaz uh operational again why there is a Chinese faith in jouti I I can I can tell you very simply the Chinese are the ultimate geopolitical realists which means they know what they can do and they know what they cannot do and they know they cannot they they understand the complexity of the Middle East very well and so the best they can do as you know is to try and pers the houis don't shoot Chinese ships and I that that that that they can accomplish but trying to persuade the htis to stop shooting they can't do it and the Chinese by the way don't like to engage in military interventions you know the as you know the United States often believes that the the best solution is to either impose sanctions or bomb a country and the Chinese don't believe in that and and the Chinese believe that you got to try and find a pragmatic solution uh for all the challenges uh that you have so for example as you know China has a lot of challenges with Japan huge challenges Japan but at the end of the day they always find ways and means of working with each other quietly Ben behind the scenes something is worked out and they continue so that that's what that's what China will try to do and since you know since the Chinese government doesn't have to worry about elections it doesn't have to worry about the headlines in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal it does what it thinks is the right thing for it over the long term and not worry about what the next headline will say professor your intervention yes until now we are in H Harmony time to arrange something of kind of disharmony between us to be more entertaining uh Professor movani uh please uh make a statement after my intervention what you think about what would be said to my mind we observe right now three and other major shifts on the global scale one was already raised by M duina it is concerning China Russian relations I you usually describe this relation in one Chinese proverb and sentence they are sleeping in one bed but have different dreams so this is the explanation no trust however there is a power shift there because until the collapse of the Soviet Union it was Russia later Soviet Union as a big brother to shauni to smaller brother in China now is vice versa for how long this is a major geopolitical question and I suppose after Ukrainian war after Mr Putin it will be top political issue on the global scale and this is shift number one shift number two which complicates our debate and also has another dimension to towards the issue has China won is this geopolitical strategic change in American attitude towards China since Kissinger and Nixon opening for some five almost decades we had the engagement instead of engagement we have harsh uh not even but very harsh uh strategic competition and be partisan in the US case it was inaugurated during the Trump Administration is continued during the Biden administration of course we had San Francisco's Summit U ceasefire if I may so for American election but this is a structural Clash uh to did a stap if you wish this is why situation and the image of China in the Western World in the global to some extent also in the global scene has changed uh and it is proved in public opinion polls and POS this shift number three concerning in China itself ER I happen to be in China as a first polish student out of two in the Academic Year 1979 1980 the first one after cultural revolution so I do remember as you do from 1980 that everyone was bicycling not no one was even dreaming about the car and right now when I was in last November just few months ago completely different planet not different country however in this different planet I would raise one issue which is tensing Heritage tening in August 1980 had a public had a speech during the political Bureau meeting which was crucial he was strongly attacking bureaucracy the party he was he he was against onean rule he was against engagement of the party into the production and uh Market forces and so on and so forth very very harsh words which were valid for 1980s and secondly and you mentioned that in your previous book uh when the Soviet Union coll he used this constitution of 28 Chinese characters Tang bu your by your time conceal your capabilities and avoid the Limelight and it was a Chinese strategy for 20 years but not anymore what has changed during T sin then shall being during the siging Bing era New Era they say first Americans Joe Biden says America is back in China party is back this is point number one point number two one man rule is back against the will of tenin Point number three uh T it was SU seek TR truth from Facts pragmatism realism as you say uh ultimate sophisticated realists but right now we have more and more ideology including Marxism and Marxism by definition is against market so we have those issues on the top of the agenda when you go right now to to the bookstore in Beijing or Shanghai you will see more mouth and this is something which is troubling and finally the most important thing instead of previous low profile we have new Chinese ambition assertive China being at belt and Road initiative being at competition in space being the Taiwan issue being a competition for semiconductors and so on and so forth so when siging ping came out with his idea of Chinese Renaissance CH America wake up and we have a strategic competition so this is something which is complicating this current situation surrounding China absolutely I agree however with your statement that they are ultimate realists uh one important issue to be raised during our debate even during the cultural revolution red guards didn't go to Atomic Bomb thermonuclear nukes which were exploded during the cultural revolution so the interests of Empire fundamental interest America says well let's make America again since through through they will say let's make China big again and that's why we have a problem we have a headache because hegemonic power is clashing with the aspirant to be hegemonic power different way so um pres M if you can just respond is this vision of make America great again and make China Great again um to be um negotiated well I can tell you that bdan made lots of points other points than that on the first point um you know when you talk about Russia and China you know uh in your very first point uh I think I want to go back to a point that mishal made when he spoke about the yellow pil yeah you know and and I hope that uh uh my polish friends will pay attention to this phrase yellow per because that's that's an emotional Dimension uh in international Affairs too and and one of the things that's driving in some ways the United States uh geop political contests against China is the fear of the yellow Peril which are documented in my book and also frankly in in I think in Russia there's an even greater fear of the yellow Peril because Russians were actually invaded by the yellow petal so uh they have hidden it they have concealed it they have concealed it because they have buried their their anxieties that's quite important you're right you're right I did completely but it's real and I think it's important for us if you want to understand the complexity of our world today we have to understand that the Deep Wells of history in different parts of the world we must understand the wells of History if you want to understand what's happening today because whatever is happening today is not just because what you and I are saying today it's about what happened 100 years ago 200 years ago so for example in the case of china the century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949 none of us have mentioned it so far that is the number one psychological driving force in Chinese minds and you must understand the century of humiliation if you want to understand why China acts uh the way it does and and why did ding have the 28 characters that bdan referred to you know uh take a l profile you know don't uh ex exhibit yourself and so on so forth because you want to China to focus on growth and become strong and and and bdan asked the question why has China switched from you know taking a low profile and becoming more exertive well you know as I I want to give you one stat think in 1990 China's GNP and by the way just for as an aside let me mention the economist said in 199 China's growth is over 1990 the magazine at that time China's GNP was $360 billion dollar China's growth economy said growth story is over and ding said take a low profile now last year China's G&P is now almost 18 trillion it's gone up 50 times now it's easy for a mouse to take a low profile the mouse can hide under the table and no people don't notice it now China is an elephant elephants cannot hide under table there's no table big enough to elephant so so China obviously when it becomes 50 times bigger it's not going to behave like a mouse and by the way all the Asian neighbors of China understand that you know if you live with a mouse you behave in a certain way if you live with an elephant you behave a different way because when the elephant is sleeping and it rolls over uh it can kill you so you have to deal differently and and so it is unrealistic to expect that China uh will not become more assertive will not throw its weight around as an elephant but I want to emphasize that in in in English there's a huge difference between two English words and actually I wrote a column in the financial times about this one is assertive the other is aggressive China has become much more assertive I completely agree done I me you're big you know you don't expect if people don't treat you right I can tell you by the way honestly it's a to Simple Story when I was Singapore as a member of the UN Security Council we went to visit 15 African countries in the charted United Nations plane right and we arrive in the capitals and of course we discovered as members of Security Council that the five permanent members were given special treatment 10 elected members were not given special treatment five Perman members are always seated with the VIPs the post government one place we went to I forget which country African country they made a mistake they only put four uh at the head table United States Russia UK France and they put china at the S table I tell you the Chinese Ambassador went ballistic what is this I should be at that table I'm China I'm now number one of course I mean it's fair it's no longer a mouse come on so I mean you know all these people who talk about why China is not listening to duning I can tell you one thing duning was one of the wisest shrewdest men that China has ever produced I guarantee you in 2024 Denia ping would say we are now an elephant we are not a mouse so we must therefore get ready for the new reality uh of this uh China and at the end of the day remember you and I can wish for a different world but I can tell you that when you come from smaller countries we cannot what we cannot live according to our wishes we have to live according to the realities and that's what we have to deal with talking about the elephants because China is the elephant I absolutely agree however if the elephant China has the Taiwan issue open when you are rising quite rightly so the 100 Years of humiliation like it or not Taiwan issue is part of it it is in Chinese sa even in elementary schools they are teached by one sentence China is in part Taiwan is a part of China yes so do you have your perspective because here in Poland here in Europe due to the Ukrainian War we are starting to talk that China will invade Taiwan China will do a war prepare and we will have another uh issue on the not only Hamas not only donbas but also type A this is the issue which is discussed here sharply and I would like to hear your perspective from Southeast Asia which is more sensitive closer and You observe it uh talking about the elephants we cannot escape the Taiwan issue definitely yeah I agree I agree in fact as you know Taiwan today is the last living symbol uh of the century of humiliation that China suffered from 1842 to 1949 because you know Taiwan was first separated from China when China lost the Sino Japanese war in 1895 so uh so for them the separation of Taiwan is a memory of the Sino Japanese war and which is why as you know at the end of World War II the Allies I want to emphasize the Allies United States Soviet Union UK France all agreed that Taiwan belonged to China in 1945 people forget this point of history and of course as a result of Civil War chash shik went to Taiwan and so Taiwan was physically separated now clearly uh if I can ass show you one thing if the taiwan's government declares independence China will declare war War that's 100% certainty but if the taiwan's government is smart and doesn't declare independence and I think they're not likely to declare independence then China will not declare war because you know in the case of the Chinese and this is where you have to go back to uh kissing's book on China the Chinese are thinking long term where will I be 10 years 20 years 30 years from now and where will Taiwan be 10 years 20 years 30 years from now China's position the world will keep going up and up and up more and more countries around the world are going to trade with China and be dependent on China now all these countries you ask them you got to choose between China and Taiwan they say of course I choose CH why would I choose Taiwan and so Taiwan will fall like a ripe fruit onto the lap of the Chinese in due CA but of course if there if if you have very dangerous people and as you know one dangerous person is somewhat like the former uh secretary of state of United States Mike Pompeo gave a speech publicly I'm not I'm not inventing this he said he said United States should recognize Taiwan as an independent country now that's a declaration of war so we need a lot of wisdom in this world to prevent Wars and you know I must give you all a very important statistic that the the amazing thing about EA Asia and in fact South Asia too is that in our region there has been no major war in 44 years since the signo Vietnamese War in 1979 right as you know but Europe has had the Balkans Wars Ukraine war and so on so forth so I think it's time for Europeans to reflect why is it that there no Wars in East Asia but there are so many wars around Europe yeah I would just um just POS the question which is um is after Taiwan if the Chinese reunification will be full I think the South um China Sea and um Norther India um give some different perspective on this because Taiwan is not the only part of the world with China's claim but I would like to give the um the the floor to miow who has his intervention yes I would like to first of all because since we are we should discuss about the book but um before I move back to the book I would like to focus on on Professor M bubani where about no major Wars in Southeast Asia which I generally agree but there is one exception uh and this is or Burma because there has been a Civil War in Myanmar since the very beginning of this country and it's quite hidden from the from uh it's not that well known outside of the country now we know after 2021 because it intensified but but the war has has never stopped so there was there there was a war and there has been a war continuing there and as you remember quite well um Burma used to be called the the Yugoslavia of Southeast Asia so the comparison with Yugoslavia here is quite quite telling and we'll see whether will end up that way but with that exception I I agree with with the fact that southeast Asia after the the after amican Americans quitted region in 1975 which you write in the book uh that's that's a one of those selling points in this book at least for Polish audience because this is counterintuitive uh that if America is no longer intervening in a region then this region gets then this region prospers so this is this is one of the biggest assets for for Polish readers that uh that this counterintuitive ideas would be would be there however I have one um question or or maybe hesitancy uh and it's about about Taiwan because the question is on whose side on whose side time is there because on one hand like seeing from outside I couldn't agree more with the fact that China will be more important more influential and so on so on that's clear but on the other hand I have a feeling that China is losing the battle for minds of of the Taiwanese that the Taiwanese are getting much more distan towards China there is developing self identity some even say that a new nation is being born and and you know well the status quo for now is is beneficial for Taiwan because it exists so the question is that it will be China who will have to change the status quo this way or another so um so uh since their policy of bringing or or influencing Taiwan softly has failed to many extent uh because DPP has won third election in a row now uh in terms of presidential elections so um so how do you um Professor how do you look at that with with this variable of Taiwan and Taiwanese identity Taiwanese people because this is in a way also a small nation well I mean firstly on on Burma you're absolutely right uh there is a civil war going on in Burma uh but I was referring to what I call Interstate Wars rather than Civil Wars uh because you know there always uh civil disturbances C in every country you know and they've been there and and that's that's a normal thing but may there be no Interstate war between two major Interstate Wars since 1979 and that that's quite remarkable in a region full of lots of Divisions now on the question whose side time time is on now you're absolutely right the taiwan's people do not want to become uh part of uh China today that's very very clear you're absolutely right but at the same time don't forget that the if the Chinese were going to have a maximalist demand and say that Taiwan should incorporate itself and become completely like China and the China Tanis people must change all their Lifestyles and uh accept the Chinese Communist party and so on so forth then I think that a problem but the there have been lots of incredible number of signals from China that indicate that if Taiwan is prepared to indicate that he believes in one China China is prepared to give the Taiwan people all the autonomy they want to lead exactly the lifestyles that they have travel around the world choose their local government do what they want to do but what say we are part of China that's all so all you need frankly what's amazing about the Taiwan problem is that it is not difficult to solve not difficult to solve at all because the Chinese the Chinese government doesn't need to have Chinese troops in Taiwan Chinese police in Taiwan doesn't need all that it just wants to say okay you accept your part of China you can't join us now never mind but you say you're part of China and we will discuss when you can join we can wait 100 years so if if that's the case then there can be a solution but there's a third partner we have not only two to tango type and Beijing we have America United States an Unsinkable aircraft carrier which is a description of Taiwan by the Americans so it is a much more complicated issue I agree but I want you to know that the most separatist leader of Taiwan was somebody called Chan ban and you know in uh the year 2003 Chan ban wanted to organize a referendum of the Taiwanese people to ask them hey would you like to be independent or would you like to be part of China so he wanted to prove that the Taiwan people wanted to be independent and you know who stopped the referendum it wasn't Beijing George W Bush George W bush of course of course I want to tell you this the Americans can be very pragmatic in theory the de in theory the Americans love democracy and they should have told Chan we love you please let the people people people the people of Taiwan choose democratically and Josh W Bush I can tell you put incredible amount of pressure on Chan incredible because at that time the United States needed China exactly very badly after the American invasion of Iraq and this is what all great powers do they never put their values first they put their interest first and so today it may be in the interest of United States to push for uh taiwan's Independence I don't know but they me to be fair Joe by one reason why this year I can tell your audience that in the year 2024 relations between us and China be relatively speaking calm okay because at the last meeting between President Chi chin ping and Joe Biden in San Francisco there was a very good meeting and I understand that President Joe Biden gave a very categorical uh Assurance to shiin Ping that he that he supports a one China policy and as long as United sayat is supports a one China policy there'll be no war Professor maani on the American side there is still so-called strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan while on Chinese side there is no strategic ambiguity when shining was talking in San Francisco with Joe Biden at the handshake he already said that Taiwan issue must be resolved and will be resolved so we have completely different approach this is a this is not 2003 this is 2024 and we have completely different China much more powerful elephant China when in 2003 China was still a emerging small elephant now is a big elephant in the zoo and this is a completely different story and thank you very much for this with intervention but I would like if you um for me the exceptionally interesting part of the book is the chapter number eight um which is I think it's eight is about um how will other um countries choose um because it's um in the Cold War it was more or less um um um um sure that at least in Europe that if the countries in the eastern block were to choose they would um they would sign um side with the United States as they did after the Cold War but um your answer is much more complex so if you were to um give an advice to the new polish government let's say uh about what is the Polish uh um how um how should po Poland choose and how should Poland behave in this kind of global um um Power struggle between China and and um U uh United States what your answer would be my answer was polish Poland should not be pro-china Poland should not be Pro United States Poland should be Pro Poland perfect so that's a most basic rule so if your interest you know as as Lord piston said uh countries have no Eternal friends have no Eternal enemies they only have eternal interests so Poland should look after its own interests and wherever it interest align it for that money you go you go with that alignment of interest but I would say that you whatever Poland does you must Edge your bets never put never take when you when you when you play a game of poker never take all your cash and put it on one card because if that card collapses you lose everything you must head your bets and say okay maybe I'll give uh 40% to Four Aces you know whatever it is 30% here 30% there H your bets because you know if you put 100% of your cards uh assets and you say oh I'm going to bet it all on the United States and then United States elects Donald Trump again and Donald Trump says to Russia go ahead invade all the East European countries they're not spending enough on defense no I I'm not making this up right did I make this up no no no am I telling you am I telling you fiction no but we are spending 2% and then you you you put 100% of your bets and he says go defend yourself so where where are you hedging your position so I think it's important to be politically very very realistic now I want to emphasize that we in Southeast Asia appreciate very much the American presence the American presence in soueast Asia has been incredibly stabilizing and Incredibly helpful and you know uh Henry Kissinger as you know just uh passed away and a book of essays uh uh came out in dedication to Henry Kissinger and I wrote an essay you can you can you can look for the book it's called Dear Henry and in that book uh I wrote an essay explaining how in many ways American intervention Sav Saudi Asia okay so I mean we we we we are not anti-American we are pro American but we also believe that you got to understand that countries change great Powers change the interest change and you can't do anything about it so if if Donald Trump comes into power is very wise for every country to have a plan A A Plan B and please also have a plan C never never rely only on plan a fortunately we are diverse ifying we are uh improving our relations with the European Union with Brussels prime minister went to Berlin and Paris recently however we are not diversifying towards Asia unfortunately we are still on the east west axis and this is the reason we want professor mauban and other realist in our country that's why we are pressing you to tell even to be a advis to the Polish government and we are looking forward what you have to say right now because the word is trembling the word is shaky the word is a unfortunately unstable something which we can observe in Ukraine in the Middle East hopefully not uh in South China Sea region but we cannot exclude it as well thank you very much for this closing remark of um gr may I because have a reaction of you Miho on the hedging issue because um you are um smiling and um um it was a smile of appreciation or it was a smile of Doubt well first of all I think that professor mahbubani book will be a bestseller in Poland at least within certain communities because it offers very many counterintuitive to PO Psy ideas and for this very reason this will be a m threat so uh in this regard I'm very happy that this book will be published and um and the and I think there are many great parts and since in the book Professor mahbubani made a recommendation to Shin pink so we followed up now with this recommendation to polish government as um well I was smiling in an ambivalent way because uh you know well it's it's it's always bad to um to diversify to hch to um well in a way to to Balance power but then you need to have power to Balance power and the problem with us is that uh in a way we can balance within the west and I think the current government is doing that uh and uh and this is in a way a return to our traditional policy of on focusing on two pillars that is United States and the European Union but then with other powers which are far away and which are either uninterested or or for or or worse for these Powers quite often Russia is much more important then uh the the you know the the scale of the scale the the options for balancing are are quite limited and um since with the current Russia um we have no option but we can only this is only damage control we cannot do much because if you if you looked at if you if you watched um Putin's interview with with Tucker then you'll see that he mentioned Poland more often than Ukraine but he mentioned also Poland more often than the US uh and that that is telling because it shows that we have a mortal existential threat next to our borders and that limits our options for balancing unfortunately uh because in a perfect word we could balance with um we could we could hatch towards many other options but it's imperfect word and and our options are unfortunately limited and the the fact that the world is changing and it's changing towards emerging powers in in this regard is is not beneficial for us unfortunately nobody's perfect and the word is not perfect as well so thank you very much for your interventions I think we can have this um discussion going on for and at least another hour but we I um fear our um time has elapsed so I would like to thank you cordially for the discussion um I think the issue of hedging and polish foreign policy um will be um would be um um quite um wisly informed by the questions Professor maani is asking in the books um if um I were to be asked about my favorite part of the book it's about its introduction it's the introduction when you've um POS the questions as a strategic thinker and I think this questions are absolutely relevant and I would like to um all our um people who listen to them to us to read them um by the book you can do it here on um under in the commentary below and um um these questions are provocative but I think I completely agree with um with um miow that um this um book um offers a counterintuitive perspective for Polish audience and I think what is more challenging uh if not a book you first don't agree with and second L after a while you think oh this is a very good question thank you very much for this um um all the panelists profor mark bubani thank you for your time so late in the evening um um thank you Professor galuk um for for your time and very wise comments hopefully so and um miina um is um joining us from from from Kow thank you very much for for your questions and for for your indepth um reading of the book I think we should all follow um um your advice to look at the book and read it very closely thank you very much thank you good night

Channel: Nowa Konfederacja

Views: 41,124

Keywords: Nowa Konfederacja, Bartłomiej Radziejewski, Radziejewski Bartłomiej, Góralczyk, Bogdan Góralczyk, Michał Lubina, prof. Góralczyk, Góralczyk Bogdan, Lubina Michał, Zalewski, Krzysztof Zalewski, prof. Lubina, Kishore Mahbubani, Mahbubani, Czy Chiny już wygrały?, konflikt USA-Chiny, rywalizacja chińsko-amerykańska, polityka europejska, dominacja Chin nad Rosją, globalny spór USA-Chiny, Polska wobec konfliktu USA-Chiny, stan rywalizacji między Chinami a Stanami Zjednoczonymi, chiny

Id: V2Xvn9Zdp0I

Length: 81min 52sec (4912 seconds)

Published: Wed Feb 21 2024