Has Boris won a majority? - Election 2019 | BBC

it is five minutes to 10 on Thursday the 12th of December polling day across the United Kingdom and welcome to the BBC election centre at new Broadcasting House in London [Music] a very good evening for the fourth time in the space of five years the future of the United Kingdom is uncertain and this time with politics in deadlock and brexit unresolved the stakes are higher than ever now in a few moments polling stations across the United Kingdom will close the voting would be over and we'll be able to reveal the result of our exit poll that's our first hint of the possible result will Boris Johnson be back in number 10 will Jeremy Corbyn beaten to it or will the outcome be less than clear when it comes to Jeremy vines winning line well here we are again two years ago in our virtual Downing Street I showed you the Conservatives falling short and Labour improving but not by nearly enough and the result was two years of chaos in Parliament the question tonight is whether any party can get 326 seats or more and send their leader through that door with the majority the party leaders voted earlier today wrapped up against the elements in the first December election since 1923 less than a fortnight before Christmas they know that these ballot boxes hold the key to their futures and my colleague naga munchetty is watching the hard-fought race to declare the night's first result well all eyes are on the northeast today to see who will declare first last time it was newcastle but we have found out that their neighbors in Bligh Valley have been practicing in secret are you ready the only thing they can get the counting done in under 44 minutes we'll see if they put it off high above the newsroom our specialist team will be gathering results as they come in and our election supremo Professor Sir John Curtis ready to analyze those results and to update the early predictions there are 650 MPs to be elected every one of those outcomes vital to the final results and my colleague Rita Chakravarthi is at the big screen with more details this has been such a hard election to predict with the shadow of brexit hovering over the usual tribal loyalties well we're about to find out what the real numbers are and I'm here at the giant touchscreen which has been loaded with data from thousands of people as they leave polling stations across the country and a few moments time I should be able to predict which seats are changing hands and just outside the studio in the cold light air my colleague Sophie Raworth with a vast map of the United Kingdom and the changing political landscape yes this is the UK but not as you know we have made each constituency exactly the same size so one hexagon for one MP and it gives you a much better idea of where the real balance of power lies now this map is laid out in the colours of the 2017 general election shortly we're gonna start pulling them all up and then relaying them as the results come in to find out just what has changed and back here in our studio our Inquisitor in chief Andrew Neil will be talking to many of the winners and losers finding out why the election turned out as it did and where we go from here throughout the night as the results come in I'll be speaking to an array of politicians and pundits in the studio and across the country asking them what went right what went wrong and what happens next with me all night is the BBC's political editor Laura Coons Berg she's waiting to give her immediate verdict on the exit poll so here we are we are just seconds away from the result of the exit poll our first prediction of the potential outcome of this election more than 20,000 people were asked how they voted today at a hundred and forty-four polling stations right across the UK on behalf of the BBC ITV and Sky so as Big Ben reaches 10 o'clock we are standing by with those crucial exit poll figures here they are our exit poll is suggesting that there will be a conservative majority when all the votes are counted after this election of December 2019 the Conservatives on three hundred and sixty eight seats and labour way down on a hundred and ninety-one now on those figures we are looking at a conservative majority of 86 if the votes actually tally up with this prediction and that will be the biggest conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher's third victory back in 1987 let's look at that Labour figure 191 for Jeremy Corbyn that would be the worst labour result in modern times and certainly worse than the figure obtained by Michael foot back in 1983 a low point for labour let's look at the wider picture and here we have the figures for all the parties the Conservatives we are suggesting on 368 that is a rise of 50 seats in this election as suggested by the exit poll labor on 191 suffering as many as 71 losses that's the suggestion of the pole and the SNP on 55 making some 20 gains the Lib Dems on 13 up just one seat Pleiku Murray on three losing a seat the greens on one no change the brexit party not winning any seats according to this exit poll and the others most of those in Northern Ireland now making up 19 it is an exit poll we will see how accurate it is of course when the results start coming in and we may even get some results within some 45 minutes or so but it is a dramatic poll and it certainly suggests that Boris Johnson is on course for a very solid majority of at least 80 seats possibly 86 let's get Laura Coons Berg's reaction to this well we have all just lived through some of the most turbulent times any of us can remember in terms of our politics and if these numbers are broadly correct Boris Johnson who just a year ago was the back benches may just have redrawn the map on these figures he would have clear backing on the green benches behind him to take us out of the European Union next month a momentous Junction for our country but it would also mean another five years of conservative rule with a solid majority behind him tipping the Conservatives into governing the country for more than a decade and also seeing labor go to a fourth defeat at a general election in a row but this time if these numbers are even roughly correct a serious and historic loss the SNP appear to have increased their dominance their tight hold in Scotland the other parties though do not appear to have made much of a breakthrough but remember it is early this is a sample these are polling numbers we are at the beginning of drawing the picture of who will have the power to make the decisions that do and will change all of our lives it's a pretty startling set of figures Laura I think it's fair to say at any point in the campaign did you sense that the Conservatives are on course for this kind of majority if the poll is correct I think from all of the parties here the overriding sense all the way through has been this has been an almost impossible election to read and they've all rather than fixating on particular numbers they've all been looking at a range so senior conservatives have been talking to today even we say all the way through they'd been expecting hoping that they would at least scrape the majority aware though that it might not be in the bag but all with this with that possibility that they might make the kinds of inroads in leave areas and they could they hoped almost create a set of dominoes where seats might fall in these kinds of numbers and I think on early suggestions what this does show is that although lots of issues have been discussed and matter to our viewers tonight this has broadly been a brexit election where the Tories have managed to create a hard leave vote and keep it together and the remain vote has split across I suppose the headline really apart from the conservative majority I suggested is that right now we're looking at the political landscape changing radically absolutely I mean this would be a redrawing of the map labour way down I mean as you said that is labour behind where the in the early 80s and everybody in the Labour Party many of our audience tonight know how long it took the Labour Party to build back from that kind of level of support but also look at the SNP tightening their grip on Scotland so this may well be and of course we'll say it lots of times in the next few hours don't we this is an early taste but it may well be that Boris Johnson who had been written off so many times such a controversial and divisive figure we heard that around the country in the last few weeks may have been able to change the boundaries in British politics if these results bear out we have several hours to talk about this Laura and something initial thoughts there thank you very much Laura's with us throughout the night of course let's take a look outside in central London here because this is a old Broadcasting House we're looking at next to it is new Broadcasting House and all night we are projecting the figures on Broadcasting House so that those passing can see it and of course we can show it across our screens across the UK and worldwide and there you have it the exit polls suggesting labored possibly down to 191 seats yes and pion 55 and we're looking at the Lib Dems on 13 that would be a very disappointing result if that is true for Joe Swanson party leader applied comer e on 3 the suggestion of the poll is that they will lose one of their seats and there you have right at the top the headline figure the Conservatives according to the poll forecast to get 368 seats that is a gain of 50 seats on the 2017 performance under Theresa May that would be a dramatic success for Boris Johnson and this is indeed if it is true a heavy heavy blow for Jeremy Corbyn a strong performance if it's right for the SNP in Scotland as Laura was saying and there'll be some licking of wounds at Lib Dem headquarters pleiku Murray as I say in Wales down to three we think but we'll wait to see what's going on so it seems like a good moment now that we have these figures and as I say let's wait for some results to come in so that we can measure the results against the suggested prediction of the exit poll we'll talk to Sir John Curtis who was the Guru that we have was in charge of these figures we'll ask John about them a little later but it seems like a good moment to talk to Jeremy vine and ask Jeremy about these figures and what they might produce well Hugh it will change the House of Commons if the exit poll is correct let's just remind you that to win an overall majority in the House of Commons you need 326 MPs Theresa May fell short didn't she in 2017 but the exit poll has Boris Johnson going straight through the 3 to 6 quite a long way past it with 368 MPs a gain of 50 on the Theresa may result two years ago and then the other story of the night which you've mentioned and Laura's been talking about is just how badly Labour's showing is in the exit poll of course the actual mate results may change this but let's look at these numbers that 191 seats for labour would be below what Michael foot did in 1983 he got above 200 at least and then this amazing performance by the SNP if that's what it is again we wait for the actual results exit poll showing Lib Dems not really moving plight Camry in Wales down a little one green MP still and then the others on 19 and the key figure and what will give Boris Johnson so much comfort tonight as he looks at this is that the exit poll forecasts the majority of 86 so you end that period in Parliament where no one could get anything done if that is if that is the majority that is a stunning victory [Music] Oh

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Length: 13min 19sec (799 seconds)

Published: Thu Dec 12 2019