As 2023 draws to a close, there are growing fears that Venezuela is
preparing to invade neighbouring Guyana. Following decades of tensions over a
disputed border, and despite an ongoing case before the International Court
of Justice, the world's highest court, Caracas appears increasingly intent on
seizing the disputed territory by force. So, what exactly lies behind the conflict? And could Venezuela really
invade and annex the territory? Hello and welcome. If you're new to the
channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at international
relations, conflict, security, and statehood. The world map is covered in borders
created by European colonialism. Over many centuries and spanning Africa,
Asia and the Americas, Europe's imperial powers carved out vast territories, often
ruthlessly exploiting their natural resources. But as decolonisation gathered pace
in the middle of the 20th century, the question of these boundaries came to the fore. However, instead of opening endless
territorial conflicts, in most cases, it was agreed that the colonial boundaries would
become the borders of newly independent states. By and large, this principle
has been broadly respected. There are, in fact, remarkably few
postcolonial border disputes around the world. For the most part, the new States
respected their colonial boundaries with their neighbours - even if
they didn't always like them. But sometimes, severe disputes have arisen. And occasionally, these have
descended into armed conflict. One of the most significant
current examples focuses on the border between Venezuela and Guyana. While the matter appeared to have
been resolved well over a century ago, it was resurrected at the time of
Guyana's independence in the 1960s. However, in recent months the
situation has deteriorated rapidly, to the point that many fear that the two
countries may now be on the verge of war. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the Cooperative Republic of
Guyana lie in South America. At 96,000 square km or around 350,000
square miles, Venezuela is the world's 32nd largest country, and its population
currently stands at around 28 million. In contrast, Guyana, at 25,000 square
km or around 83,000 square miles, is the world's 83rd largest country
and has a population of just 800,000. While the region has a long and
fascinating history of human settlement, our story really starts with the Spanish
imperial conquest of the Americas. Having established a foothold in the
Caribbean at the end of the 15th century, Spain steadily extended its colonial presence
across much of Central and South America. Originally a part of the top-level
Vice-Royalty of New Granada, in 1777, Venezuela became a separate captaincy-general. This lasted until 1819. As the Spanish Empire collapsed, it
joined the new Republic of Colombia. However, a decade later, it broke away,
becoming an independent sovereign state in 1830. Meanwhile, several other European powers
also established a colonial presence in South America over the preceding centuries. As well as Portugal, which established
Brazil to the south of Venezuela, this included the Netherlands. Having controlled large areas at one
stage, by the end of the 18th century, the Dutch holdings had been reduced
to a few colonies off the north coast. However, this ended during the Napoleonic
Wars when three of them - Berbice, Demerara, and Essequibo - were seized
by France and then Britain. In 1814, the Dutch recognised British
sovereignty over the territories, and in 1831 they were merged
to create British Guiana. From the start, tensions
emerge between the neighbours. While Venezuela argued that the area had at one stage been Spanish and that
the borders were undecided, Britain commissioned a survey that claimed
most of the territory to the Orinoco River. In 1841, Venezuela protested, counter-claiming
it should have sovereignty over all the land west of the Essequibo River - an area
covering two-thirds of British Guyana. Over the following decades, the dispute escalated, and in 1887, Venezuela broke off
diplomatic relations with Britain. Having been asked to intercede, the United States called on London to
accept some form of judicial resolution. However, while Britain initially refused, it changed its mind after the US Congress
threatened to set up a boundary commission. In 1897, the issue was therefore
referred to arbitration. Two years later, on 3 October 1899,
the court issued its decision. While it awarded a part of
the territory to Venezuela, most of the area between the
rivers was given to Britain. Despite its obvious disappointment,
Venezuela nevertheless accepted the outcome and following direct talks, a
formal border was marked out in 1905. Over the next six decades, it seemed
as if the issue had been resolved. However, all this changed in 1962. As the process of decolonisation gathered
pace, and the United Kingdom prepared to grant independence to British Guiana,
Venezuela suddenly resurrected the matter. Arguing that the 1899 decision
had been reached behind its back, it refused to accept the ruling,
calling it "null and void". Although Britain and Venezuela agreed to
examine the circumstances of the ruling, they couldn't settle the matter. Instead, they decided that a new commission would be created after Guyana's independence
to search for a practical settlement. Crucially, they also agreed that if this
process failed, the UN Secretary-General would have the authority to determine
a settlement mechanism under Article 33 of the UN Charter, which governs
the peaceful settlement of disputes. As a result, on 26 May 1966, Guyana became
independent, joining the UN shortly afterwards. But while the commission was set up, its
mandate ended in 1970 without an agreement, and further high-level talks
in the 1980s also failed. Then, in 1990, the UN tried to break the deadlock by offering its Good Offices
- a form of light mediation. However, despite many attempts to broker
an agreement over the following decades, the sides remained far apart. After 25 years of talks, the
situation radically changed in 2015, following the discovery of oil in Essequibo. In 2016, the outgoing UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, announced the start of a
final one-year intensive mediation effort. But this, too, failed to bridge the differences. As a result, in 2018, the new UN
Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, decided that the efforts to find a peaceful
negotiated solution had been exhausted. After five decades of discussions,
he announced that the International Court of Justice, the UN's judicial
organ, should determine the matter. On 29 March 2018, Guyana
referred the matter to the Court. At first, Venezuela refused to participate,
arguing that the Court had no jurisdiction. However, in 2020, the judges decided that
they did have the authority to hear the case. Following public hearings in November 2022, six
months later, the Court issued its first ruling. This tackled several issues raised by Venezuela, including a claim that Britain should be involved
in the proceedings - a view the judges rejected. As for a final ruling, this isn't
expected until the middle of 2024. But as the sides wait for the result, the
situation on the ground has steadily changed. Guyana, which now enjoys the world's
highest per capita oil deposits, has undergone rapid economic development, becoming
one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America. This stands in marked contrast to Venezuela,
where the populist policies of the country's president, Nicholas Maduro, has seen
the economy collapse in recent years. As a result, Caracas has become steadily
more outspoken about the border issue - a process that's accelerated
over the second half of 2023. Having increased its military
presence along the frontier, including constructing a new
military airstrip, on 23 October, Venezuela announced its plans to hold
a consultative referendum on the issue. This would address five questions,
including whether to abandon the ICJ case and whether to authorise unilateral
measures to resolve the situation - a suggestion many immediately read as a direct
threat to invade and annex the territory. Faced with this threat, Guyana
immediately appealed to the ICJ for provisional measures to
deter Venezuela from acting. On 1 December, the Court unanimously
called on Venezuela to refrain from taking any action to modify the situation
in the area under Guyana's control pending the outcome of the case and called
on both sides to refrain from any actions that could aggravate the issue
or make it more challenging to solve. Despite the ruling, Venezuela
pressed ahead with the vote. Although turnout was reported to be low, the measures were passed by a vast
majority of those casting a vote. Welcoming the result, Maduro called it a "total
success" for Venezuela and its democracy. Since then, things have moved swiftly. Within days, Venezuela announced that it had
annexed the territory and even produced and distributed new maps showing the new state
of 'Guayana Esequiba' as part of the country. In addition, it's ordered foreign offshore
energy companies to stop operating within 90 days and its own oil producers to
prepare to start work in the area. Ominously, it's also moved
troops closer to the frontier. Although Guyana initially said
that it didn't believe that an invasion was imminent, the
tone has rapidly changed. Calling the Venezuelan actions
an "existential threat", the country's president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali,
has said that Guyana has begun intensive diplomatic contacts with regional partners
and other significant International actors. This includes the United States, which has
already expressed its full support for Guyana. More to the point, Guyana has also referred
the issue to the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, as concern grows, the UN
Secretary-General has called for calm, reiterating his support for peacefully
settling international disputes. But while Venezuela is certainly
cementing its claim to the land, the question remains as to
whether it'll actually invade. While there was a time when such
a move would have been unlikely, there are good reasons to be concerned. For a start, observers note that what
appeared to have started as a populist publicity stunt in Venezuela has
now become much more serious. And it's telling that neighbouring
Brazil has also moved its forces closer to the border - a sign of its
nervousness about what's happening. But it goes much deeper than this. Of course, any military attack would
fundamentally violate international law. Aside from the ongoing ICJ
case to decide the matter, the territory is internationally
accepted as belonging to Guyana. An invasion would therefore
lead to an international outcry. But while many countries and other actors,
including the United States and the European Union, would almost certainly impose
economic and political sanctions, it's unclear whether any steps would be
taken to try to reverse the act by force. Meanwhile, Venezuela would probably avoid
the most severe International condemnation. Having emerged as one of Russia's
staunchest international supporters, and given Moscow's attempted
annexation of parts of Ukraine, the Russian government could well
block any Security Council resolution condemning an invasion - although a General
Assembly vote could still be possible. More importantly, facing difficulties at home,
and without the threat of a military response, Maduro may decide that he can weather any
immediate international condemnation and take a longer term view - just as Russia may believe
that the international community will eventually accept its annexation of Crimea and Eastern
Ukraine, if not officially then it least tacitly. The Venezuelan leadership may well
be thinking along the same lines, a point that's already been made
by the vice president of Guyana. But, for now, what can be said for sure is
that if Venezuela does launch an attack, and does so with relative impunity, it will be yet
another major blow to the accepted global order. If successful, a Venezuelan
Invasion could encourage other states to start questioning
seemingly settled borders. For all these reasons, this previously
obscure border dispute in South America that's been rumbling on for over
half a century, could yet emerge as another step towards fundamentally reshaping
international relations in the 21st century. I hope you found that interesting. If so, here
are some more videos that you might find helpful. Thanks so much for watching,
and see you in the next video.
