CNN senior national security correspondent Alex Marquardt is back with us. Alex, we're hearing words like nullified, humiliated. These are words that Vladimir Putin does not like. What are some of the diplomatic challenges of dealing with a politically wounded Vladimir Putin? Huge diplomatic challenges, Jim. Huge security challenges. Remember, this is a man who's in charge of the world's biggest nuclear arsenal. Any Putin watcher will tell you that if Putin is backed into a corner, that makes for a very dangerous Putin. We have never seen a challenge to his authority like this. As you mentioned, these these vagrant troops getting within 125 miles, 200 kilometers of the Kremlin. His weakness has been exposed. And so he is going to have to reassert himself in a way that demonstrates to the world and demonstrates to his country that he is fully in power. The US is going to have to navigate this carefully, and we're already starting to see that outlet. Touched on the fact that the U.S. has had a very hands off approach making clear, trying to make clear to the world that they really didn't have any role in this, that they certainly are not supporting. Prigozhin on his march to Moscow But Jim, at the same time, obviously watching this very carefully and we are told that the intelligence community did see this coming, that in the past few days and weeks they have really seen planning for this. They've seen Wagner troops getting into position, equipment and weaponry on the move. There was a briefing, we're told, midweek by intelligence officials to the Gang of Eight in Congress, which includes the heads of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, essentially telling them that this was imminent. Let's take a listen to Mike Rogers, the head of the House Intelligence Committee. The Intelligence Committee was very much aware that the conflict between Prigozhin and Putin was inevitable. This is not a weekend trip he's taking, taking his convoy and his military convoy up to Moscow. There's a number of accomplices, including, as we saw, some of the Russian people on the border with Ukraine who clearly support the group in contrast to their support for the Russian government. This is something that would have had to have been planned for a significant amount of time to be executed in the manner which it was. So that was Mike Turner, the Republican head of the House Intelligence Committee, indicating that this was very much known by the intelligence community. Jim, what was not expected was the lack of resistance to these Wagner forces. I'm told the U.S. assessment thought that there would be a lot more violence, a lot more bloodshed as Wagner tried to get head north and get to the Russian capital. All right. Alex Marquardt, thank you very much for that. At this hour, we still do not know where Vladimir Putin is. Ukrainian President Zelensky said yesterday the Russian leader is, quote, very afraid and was no longer in Moscow. With me now is Yuri Soviet's. He studied with Putin at the KGB Institute and worked as a Soviet spy in Washington. Yuri, thank you very much for joining us tonight. I can't imagine there are a whole lot of folks out there who might have better insights into what has occurred this past weekend than you do. What do you think? How do you think Putin is reacting to reacting to this near insurrection and at the same time? Why isn't we? Why is it that we have not seen Putin since that angry statement that he put out just about 24 hours ago? Thank you for having me, Jim. First. I believe this is a disaster for Putin. And he understands he realizes this is a disaster. And according to his practices in similar situation, he digs into a hole and stays there as long as possible. This is what he is doing right now. And the last two days, it was the final act of defeat of Putin. Putin's image, which has been building since the year 2000, since the beginning of the aggression into Ukraine. He destroyed a reputation or a myth about the Russian army being the second best in the world. Now, this is the second army in Russia after Wagner, apparently. And over the last two days, he showed that his grip on power in Russia is almost nonexistent. He balances over the last 20 years, his act was to balance between different factions. He doesn't. He doesn't do. He is not in position to do it anymore. He controls the country as a Mafia style organization, and she loves control. This question is how humiliating is it for Putin to be challenged by someone like Prigozhin that to essentially have forgotten 125 miles or so from Moscow, somebody who was once his protege Exactly. Exactly. Because the precautions especially especially the betrayal of Prigozhin. Because for Putin, it was a lap dog. Prigozhin as a personality was created by Putin essentially before. Before they met Prigozhin was a two time hardcore drug criminal. Hardcore criminal. And this is Putin who made him very rich, famous and powerful. So Putin can see this as a real betrayal. And if he is to say it in the past, there is one crime which he cannot pardon. And this is a betrayal. But this is what he did yesterday. You know, just that he does it well. Yeah. What do you make of this deal that they made? They they made this deal where Prigozhin gets to leave for Belarus and his mercenaries and Wagner are folded into the Russian military and that that is that all is forgiven. Can you believe that? Well, this is what not just so. I cannot believe what I have. Difficult to believe, but most Russians hardly clearly believe because it's there is a clear humiliation, more and even more so, because what we know so far is this is an official part of the arrangement. But sources close to Kremlin, they say that there is one very important point of the real arrangement, which is not yet has not been announced. And this is Shoigu, the defense minister and the chief of staff will go into retirement. There will not be fires in disgrace as a precaution demanded, but they will be moving to retirement that it was a single, explicitly formulated demand of precaution. And let me ask you this. How is Putin going to survive this politically? We were talking about this with other guests during this program that I know from Russian history is the history of the Soviet Union. Generational change in Russia, where the Soviet Union, for that matter, can happen very quickly, very suddenly, and take the world by surprise. Do you do you think something like that could happen and bring about the end of Vladimir Putin It's hard to say because Putin's personnel policy over the 20 years in power was to nominate among his subordinates people who are not intelligent, not they have no guts there. Most of them have no entities, let's say So there is like, you know, like Gray my my assistants, he used to say. So it's hard to imagine that these people can commit a coup d'état. Prigozhin two times convicted criminal Putin's chef. He dared to do this by the high ranking military FSB They they they did it there. So the country is right now is basically in a freefall. I mean, in terms that the system of control and governance is almost destroyed. I don't know how they are going to repair this. But what is important to understand in similar circumstance Putin's threat tactic is to fight back with threats bluff. Most of them also stress bluffing, such as, you know, brandishing nuclear weapons. Tactical use of tactical. No use of nukes in Ukraine or elsewhere. I can tell you on the basis of one professional experience, this is the bluff which goes back to the days of the KGB. Very interesting. All right. Well, and you would know that subject well. Yuri Chavez, thank you very much for joining us. We'd love to have you back and continue having this conversation. It's very important. Thanks very much for your time. It's going get for everything. All right. We appreciate it. Amid the chaos in Russia, Ukraine's military says it is gaining ground around the city of Baquba. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh is in key for us. Nick, Ukraine clearly wants to capitalize on this power struggle in Russia. Can they do that? Yeah, that is the ultimate question. Certainly in Kiev for the days ahead. You were hearing there about the acute level of chaos that may still yet be to become in Russian top brass ranks, whether or not the defense minister and the head of the Ukraine campaign end up leaving their jobs. Now, it is unclear at this stage what level of turbulence the move by violence towards Moscow has caused on the front lines. Many argue the vulnerable not necessarily involved in front line fighting. Certainly those units that made that move were adequately prepared and have been away from the front for some time. But what has this done to morale? Certainly Ukraine is saying they've managed relatively obtuse by what they say here to move forward one or two kilometers on the outskirts of Baquba. And today, they, without any real specifics, suggests that it had some progress in the rear direction. That's essentially an Zakariya where many believe and that southern area, Ukraine wants to make a breakthrough to the Crimean peninsula occupied by Russia, off from Donbas and the Russian mainland proper. So suggestions that we might be seeing some kind of progress, but it's very hard to get specifics. And I think to a probably a sense of cautious timing here among Ukrainian military, they don't want to move necessarily too fast without being fully apprized of exactly how things have changed along the front line. But they certainly don't want to wait so long for the chaos subside in Moscow that that moment is indeed past so utterly vital that Kiev seizes this moment for its benefit Jim.
