Finland, Sweden 'rattled' by war in Ukraine: retired officer

russia making more warnings over finland's membership in nato the finnish parliament is expected to approve its application as early as next week ending the country's post-second world war neutrality nato secretary general jen stoltenberg says the finns will be warmly welcomed into the alliance the process would take as long as a year finland has one of the largest armies in europe and the country also shares a border with russia 1300 kilometers long so the kremlin says finland's joining nato would be views at a definite threat to russia finland further advanced along this road but we know that in sweden as well the discussion ongoing and we do expect to hear from sweden too similar moves within the next couple of days the swedish foreign minister talking about this today how military non-alignment has served the country well but sweden two in a new situation so finland sweden joining nato that is the topic for our next conversation with someone you've met before as we followed the ongoing russia war on ukraine with us is retired major michael boier who is a professor of history at the royal military college of canada but also a former nato war planner so has a particular insight for us this morning sir welcome back it's good to see you again this morning it's great to be here six months ago sir if i had said finland and sweden looked poised to join nato how would you have responded no way exactly both both uh well were very comfortable uh in in their positions of neutrality those positions come from long history uh and uh having served with uh with officers from finland and sweden i know how strongly that they adhered to that neutrality and to the strength that neutrality gave them however as we can all appreciate now since february the uh the situation in their part of the world has changed uh they they must they they must have been rattled i mean severely rattled by what happened in the ukraine and to seek the protection of nato as part of nato it must have taken an awful lot of soul searching but there it is it's done now so the threat in their eyes must have been very real now the threat in russian eyes is even more real if i can use those words now that border between nato's countries and this and then russia is much much longer um that threat that threat of being surrounded if only metaphorically is very strong in the russian psyche and now putin has a real problem because he has to take an army already blooded by operations as he calls them in in in the ukraine and he has to make that armed force stretch across a much larger area because he's got to protect that part of the border if only to uh to be ready to be ready in case in his mind nato pulls something like an incursion like a preemption well of course that's probably not going to happen but that makes no difference in putin's head he's got real serious problems now so added to the problems by this it seems impending membership in nato wouldn't be immediate it's about a year-long process even if accelerated before they'd be full-fledged members but but based on again so negative for putin based on what we know about the finnish and swedish military how much of a plus is it then for the nato alliance well it's a huge plus both both sweden and and finland have always taken the defense of their countries seriously um they they were not lulled they've never been lulled by uh by a sense of false sense of security coming from their neutral position they have strong militaries they're well trained officers uh the watchers in both organizations and uh they're serious they're very serious soldiers uh they have a conscription they have a conscription and then and professional elements in their army plus even for small countries because uh because of the way they organize their defense they have huge reserves of civilians who have who have had military training and are ready to in fact be called up to the colors and not as important as the people but significantly there are very sophisticated defense industries which are going to bring a level of sophistication to an already very well developed alliance now it's going to take him a year to get into the alliance and i say that having having done that with the polish in the in in the 90s early 2000s because uh the staffs and the commanders in both armed forces air land and sea have to become acquainted with how nato does business the politics of the situation in an alliance is very tricky and their politicians have to become trained and to in fact operate that way in consensus and building consensus among 30 nations is difficult so not has the law has to be done but i underline the fact that russia's position now militarily has has changed significantly in the same way our military posture changed when uh when russia crossed the ukrainian border right now that same kind of stark reality that changed that sea change is now facing the russians and russia has indicated already uh even before membership has been recorded that it is upset let me use some of the language that we're hearing from the kremlin that views these moves from finland and sweden as a threat and it in response is threatening retaliatory steps including a military technical response what is russia's likely move and reaction to this well um the things they have to do are redeployments redeployments they have to uh spread the army across that frontier they have to rearrange excuse me they have to rearrange their their air force to meet a threat coming across the northern borders um there's going to have to be some um some redeployment of of the naval of naval operations in the murmansk area which is just north of finland so they have lots to do so that military that immediate action is um is important uh secondarily and perhaps contemporarily uh also is the requirement requirement in their minds through a lot more on the cybersphere to um hopefully weaken that eventual uh northern scandinavian position does it make any sort of conflict directly russia versus the west more or less likely do you think oh more likely more um deep in the russian psyche and there's no way to overestimate this there's a fear of borders fear of borders from the east and the fear of borders in the west remember this nation has been invaded the last thousand years from both from both both points so uh the the the notion and of course especially since the second world war and and uh hitler's devastating advance into russia the russians are in fact very very sensitive and very prone to see the worst possible happenings along their borders so um i mean i don't want to ascribe sincerity to what to what russian politicians say but lavrov himself and and his people at the u.n have been saying that this is a threat a threat and that there will be a reaction now what he does will what he does we'll see uh most of what mr putin says and versus secretaries say in public is mere posturing but one never knows when posturing ends and the reality begins he doesn't have the combat power his armed forces don't have the combat power to take the fight to the finns and the swedes that would be foolhardy but um he's got to make serious changes because now he's operating on two fronts in the north and in the south against ukraine thank you so much as always i really appreciate your very particular insight into all of this and thanks for sharing it with us today sir why thank you retired major michael barr in kingston this morning

Channel: CBC News

Views: 2,699

Keywords: Finland, Sweden, Russia, Ukraine, NATO, military, cbcnews

Id: _UT1RnNaOaU

Length: 8min 12sec (492 seconds)

Published: Fri May 13 2022