GIVE US TIME TO APPRECIATE THE CONSEQUENCES THERE ARE REAL CONSEQUENCES AS YOU AND I BOTH KNOW, MR. CHAIRMAN WITH THAT, MR. CHAIRMAN I YIELD BACK THE BALANCE OF MY TIME. >> THE GENTLEMAN FROM TEXAS MR. GREEN IS RECOGNIZED FOR FIVE MINUTES. >> THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN WELCOME AGAIN, MR. POWELL. IT'S AN HONOR TO HAVE YOU BEFORE US TODAY I ALWAYS ENJOY HEARING YOUR COMMENTARY AS YOU KNOW, RECESSION AND INFLATION, THESE ARE BUZZWORDS AND THEY'RE USED IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES TO CAST A DIM LIGHT ON PERHAPS THE FED AND OTHERS WHO ARE WORKING TO END SOME OF THESE TROUBLING CIRCUMSTANCES WE'RE DEALING WITH ARE YOU NOW AT A POINT WHERE YOU BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A RECESSION? THERE WAS MUCH TALK ABOUT RECESSION AND MANY PEOPLE WORRIED THAT WE WOULD FIND OURSELVES HAVING TO NEGOTIATE OUR WAY OUT OF A RECESSION WHAT IS YOUR POSITION CURRENTLY ON A RECESSION >> SO U.S. GROWTH LAST YEAR WAS IN EXCESS OF 3%. WHAT WE'RE SEEING SO FAR THIS YEAR IS CONTINUED SOLID GROWTH MY EXPECTATION AND THAT OF OTHER FORECASTERS AND OF MY COLLEAGUES IS THAT WE'LL SEE CONTINUED GROWTH AT A SOLID PACE I WILL SAY, SO THERE'S NO EVIDENCE -- NO REASON TO THINK THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY IS IN OR IN SOME KIND OF SHORT TERM RISK OF FALLING INTO RECESSION. HAVING SAID THAT, THOUGH, THERE'S ALWAYS, YOU KNOW, A POSSIBILITY -- A MEANINGFUL POSSIBILITY THAT AN ECONOMY WILL FALL INTO RECESSION. I DON'T THINK THAT POSSIBILITY, THOUGH, IS ELEVATED AT THE CURRENT TIME. >> THANK YOU I APPRECIATE YOUR SAYING THIS BECAUSE WE WANT TO, AT SOME POINT, ELIMINATE A GREAT DEAL OF FEAR ASSOCIATED WITH JUST THE TERM RECESSION NEXT POINT, THE DECEMBER FOMC PROJECTIONS SHOW CASE A SLIGHTLY LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE THAN LAST JUNE'S PROJECTIONS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GDP SUGGESTING A SOFT LANDING REMAINS LIKELY. ARE YOU OF THE OPINION THAT WE'RE HEADED TO A SOFT LANDING MR. POWELL >> I'LL JUST SAY THAT WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR IS AN ECONOMY THAT'S GROWING AT A SOLID ARE MOVING U LABOR MARKET'S COMING INTO BETTER BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AND INFLATION HAS COME DOWN SHARPLY, REALLY, SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST YEAR, SO THOSE ARE THE CONDITIONS WE SEE. THEY'RE VERY ATTRACTIVE CONDITIONS AND WE'RE TRYING TO USE OUR POLICIES TO KEEP THAT GROWTH GOING AND TO KEEP THAT LABOR MARKET STRONG, WHILE ALSO ACHIEVING FURTHER PROGRESS ON INFLATION. THAT'S OUR GOAL. AND DO I THINK THERE'S A POSSIBILITY THAT WE CAN ACHIEVE ALL OF THAT WHILE KEEP THE LABOR MARKET STRONG AND THE ECONOMY GROWING? YES, I THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY, INDEED, THAT IS WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO ACHIEVE >> A SOFT LANDING CAN BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY. WE COULD POSSIBLY HAVE A SOFT LANDING AND MISS THE POINT AT WHICH THE LANDING TOOK PLACE HOW DO YOU DIVINE THE SOFT LANDING, SUCH THAT A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC, A LAYPERSON, WOULD UNDERSTAND THAT WE HAVE, INDEED, HAD A SOFT LANDING >> SO WE REALLY THINK ABOUT IT IN THE TERMS I JUST DISCUSSED, WHICH IS, WE WANT TO KEEP THE ECONOMY GROWING, WE WANT THE LABOR MARKET TO REMAIN STRONG, 3.7% UNEMPLOYMENT IS PRETTY NEAR 50-YEAR HISTORICAL LOWS. WE WANT INFLATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN, CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THAT 2% OBJECTIVE. AND WE'VE MADE QUITE GOOD PROGRESS ON THAT OVER JUST THE PAST YEAR. SO, WE WANT TO CONTINUE THOSE CONDITIONS AND I DON'T WANT TO PUT THE LABEL ON IT, OTHER PEOPLE CAN DO THAT, BUT I WOULD JUST SAY, WE'RE USING OUR TOOLS TO, YOU KNOW, KEEP A STRONG LABOR MARKET AND STRONG GROWTH, WHILE, YOU KNOW, MAKING FURTHER PROGRESS ON GETTING INFLATION DOWN TO 2% FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE PUBLIC. THAT'S THE ECONOMY THAT WE'RE TRYING TO ACHIEVE, AND I THINK THERE'S A, YOU KNOW, WE'RE ON A GOOD PATH SO FAR TO BE ABLE TO GET THERE. >> WELL, I CONCUR. BUT I WOULD ASK THIS, AS MY LAST QUESTION WILL THERE BE SOME ANNOUNCEMENT AT SOME POINT THAT WE'VE HAD A SOFT LANDING BECAUSE, WE HAVE PEOPLE WHO ARE CONTINUALLY INDICATING THAT WE'RE NOT HAVING A SOFT LANDING, THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF A RECESSION, SO WILL THERE EVER BE SOME OFFICIAL STATEMENT THAT WOULD GIVE PEOPLE SOME COMFORT >> I DON'T THINK BY US, NO I THINK WE'RE JUST GOING TO KEEP OUR HEADS DOWN AND DO OUR JOBS, AND TRY TO DELIVER WHAT WE'RE -- WHAT THE PUBLICIS EXPECTING FROM US.
