Far Too Early Guess at the 2024-25 NHL Standings

welcome back all right uh first off before we get into this uh you'll notice that shadow right there that that black blob sitting there in that cat bed um I have seen people say oh I miss the pets you know in the background and and and frolicking and and playing and stuff if they that's that's that's the cat right there that's that's as close to a Frolic as he's going to get today he's uh he's all tired from all the Sleeping he's had all right so I on the board we have last this past season standings and where things get interesting is uh when we look at The Following season and we look at how you know things are trending and all this I've got the point totals for most of the teams on the board in the light blue are the ones that were nowhere near the playoffs uh and in red are ones that were within 10 points of the playoffs or in the playoffs so in the west what's interesting is there's only one team that missed the playoffs that actually ended up being within 10 points of said playoffs Minnesota once they fell off they were done uh Calgary a lot of discussion about how Calgary just it just all fell apart about midseason um and so that discussion Point has also been about whether the West is stronger which which conference is stronger H I think they're equally strong it did take 98 points to make the playoffs in the west 91 in the East yes there are more weaker teams in the west than in the East but honestly I think the conferences are pretty equally strong for instance Vegas was the number eight seed with they've beaten the capitals in the playoff series yes uh the LA Kings against the Islanders some somebody would have had to win I think the LA Kings would had a good chance Nashville against Tampa that one's a tough one uh the Oilers against Toronto I think the Oilers win that uh Colorado against Boston I I kind of like Colorado in that one Vancouver in Florida I can't make an argument for Vancouver I could try uh Winnipeg and Carolina I I like Carolina against Winnipeg and Dallas against the Rangers I actually kind of like Dallas in that series a bit but the Rangers did make the Conference Finals so again uh just direct comparison I I think you can make the argument that conferences are pretty darn close um so the New York Rangers were first in the in the the East and the Dallas Stars first in the west only one point separated them and there was only three points from the Rangers down to Carolina only four points down you get both Winnipeg and Florida so tied for fourth place and of course Florida took that tide for fourth place and won the Stanley Cup with it so they were only four points back at the president's trophy I still don't think it's a curse it's just we live in a league where there's a lot of parity and half the league misses the playoffs so we're trying to Fig trying to figure out who who may very well make the playoffs this year the first thing I need to do is take this this cloth here and take off last season's points cuz we're not going to talk about last season's points from here on going forward so hopefully you memorized them and if not I understand you could probably find the NHL standings anywhere on the internet um so anyways we're going to just take those off what do you mean I could have paused I mean you don't get the moment of actually watching me do this if I paused you could learn to edit stupid Hy guy I could I could but you guys love me and you know it anyway uh so last year off the board except all right except Columbus apologies to Columbus sorry Columbus sorry guys uh so looking at the East and saying all right so is Columbus still going to be the worst team in the East right uh Montreal Habs fans believe they're going to get better uh Ottawa fans believe things are going to get better so is Philadelphia the worst team in the East could that argument be made I will say that it could so let's go ahead and say Philadelphia I if this was a game show I'd say yeah you can lock that in and then there'd be a like a who and a pause ah but arguing Columbus ahead other teams on the board gets a little difficult so then is Columbus 15th and if they're 15th this season in the East I think there's going to be some some heads rolling um although that's already taking place so this is where things already get difficult and why I love covering the National Hockey League because this is where I'll get claim claims that I'm I'm a hater I hate on a team because I'm going to say Montreal for this coming season and 15th in the East to me that looks likely because I think New Jersey moves up and then it gets tough because then you get into 14th I'm I'm having a hard time picture ing Columbus moving up a lot you've still got Elvis and net maybe tasov has a really good season but again there's that recency bias there recency bias is always going to be an issue where we say all right well because of what happened this year we think this is going to happen next year it doesn't usually happen this this past season if you go back and look at the season previews I never predicted where a team was going to finish this is the first time I've done this in a long time so 13th I honestly don't think Pittsburgh ends it back of above the playoff line I also think Pittsburgh is is a team that that really that fall could happen this season where they've been close to the playoffs but because I think New Jersey gets better buffalo and Ottawa should be pushing the way to towards a playoff spot I could see Pittsburgh still being around 500 but end up finding themselves there and then it gets more difficult so the Islanders the expectation has been they'll drop out of the playoffs for years and they haven't and the reality is they always seem to overachieve Patrick W their coach right now so can we make the argument for the Islanders or the capitals dropping out and and I think the argument would be made I don't think anybody's going to expect the top six to drop out right so this is where it gets really difficult uh the Detroit Red Wings there's some pressure on them to move up Ottawa seems to find a reason not to succeed from one season to the next whether it's the the slow starts sometimes it's goal tending getting all Mark heal helps and I know J fresh posted projected standings from the model that they use and it has Ottawa above the playoff line for me just looking at the board just thinking about this I think to myself no I I don't know that Ottawa gets into the playoffs and then for Buffalo again and I can't call this one recency bias because it's Buffalo uh they they just have found a way to falter every single season since they made the playoffs in 2011 uh from then it's just been an absolute disaster so now we're into the top 10 in the East and so the argument could be made for a number of teams I'm going to put the Islanders below the line I'm going to regret this I'm going to regret this very soon now these are not official rankings because uh it's July I'm just messing around here and having fun with it and I am legitimately trying to figure out where I think teams are going to finish and then it becomes okay so New Jersey and Detroit will both of them end up jumping back into a playoff spot New Jersey's fixed their defense their goal tending looks good Detroit has been gradually working their way up I will say that the capitals finish there I will put Detroit here but then it becomes okay so the top six stay in that same order are we going to see erosion of teams that are in that top six I don't know if Toronto can stay in that top five and so I'll drop Toronto down to number seven and then it becomes a question of okay um outside of that what else is going to go on here I I I think Boston at times has overachieved over the last couple years I I think that in the playoffs you saw that I mean they got out of the first round but that that problem at Center definitely showed up and and it was kind of glaring against Florida they've lostark as their as their 1 a1b I have a hard time making the argument for Boston but then there's Tampa what's gensel going to do in Tampa so I'm going to put Tampa here no I'm not I'm going to Carolina's had some losses so before I put Tampa there the question becomes have the losses that Carolina suffered have they meant that in the regular season they would drop that far down you still got vasileski and Tampa you lose stos you gained gensel you still got COV you still got headman they did have to trade sergachev yeah yeah trade out sergachev I'll put I'll put Tampa Bay there um Carolina will Carolina still be ahead of New Jersey I I really like what New Jersey did with that blue line and with the goal tending I think they're going to jump back in I'm not taking them to win the Stanley Cup so if you're a devil's fan and you're concerned don't be I am not I promise I'll put it in writing and I'll sign it I am not taking New Jersey to win the Stanley Cup this year that one aged just really really poorly well I took them to win it in 2024 I'm not taking them to win it in 2025 I'll leave them at 4th and the Rangers I'll drop down to Second and I will put Florida as number one in the East and this is despite you know some losses they've had in the offseason some players that have gone and whatnot I will be doing a video on Florida soon I still think they're the best team in the East and they're going to be tough to beat this coming season so whether you believe that uh Florida is where they are because of tax reasons or Batman loves them whatever you think I first off I disagree but that's that's my my projection right now for for the East one through eight so there you go and again this is by pure points so it doesn't matter if you're a division winner which is why Vancouver is in third in in the west but we'll get to Vancouver and then in the west you've got three teams in San Jose Anaheim and Chicago who are all looking to get a little better and the question becomes has San Jose improved to the point where they shouldn't last in the west my knee-jerk response to that is probably not no so I will leave San Jose where they are Chicago have they done enough to move up from where they were this past season um I do think they'll be improved I don't think we'll see three really bad teams in the west this season but will they improve enough to move up past 15th in the west I don't think so I mean I'm being so committal here right and then because comes a matter of okay so so what happens who's who's next on the board I honestly think it could be Calgary and and I think it could be Calgary because you've got a lot of players that are gone and it may be really difficult for players this season to get it going uh and a slow start could do it plus I think Anaheim is going to be better so I genuinely think that Anaheim is going to be better uh this coming season than they were but this is still three of the bottom four being in the Pacific Division um I I don't know that the wild necessarily move up so I I don't see the wild as being a playoff team at this point move this and this and because that's where it gets interesting as the idea of so could we see teams that finished above the playoff line in the west drop out and there's almost none that I could drop out that wouldn't cause a bit of an uproar right so this is where things get interesting um Seattle should get better I I don't know if St Louis has has what they need in order to get back above the playoff line uh but they've overachieved before so I'm not going to say they won't at this point Utah I'm going to put here with the caveat that that that Utah still has a ton of cap space so between now in the start of the season this prediction could change tremendously but I do think that for a first year team I think Utah is going to stay in the hunt they'll play some important games probably until late February should be a lot of fun to watch and again that that's without other additions that I think are going to be coming uh for Utah hockey fans so it it could be an exciting first year um I'm not enthralled with the Kings at this point but I don't see them finishing below St Louis so I will put St Louis there I think the Kings end up a little bit below the line CU I think Seattle bounces back again this could end up being a wildly unpredict or unlikely prediction but I I do like what Seattle's done so I'll put them at eth now the question becomes all right so we had a conu team that yes did they overachieve this year yes um however uh I don't know that there's that that negativity around Vancouver that we've seen with Winnipeg a bit and I do think Winnipeg will probably fall back from from where they've been in the conference which this past season was second I don't think they they get that again although again between now in the start of the Season there's a lot of talk about the moving eers wanie NIS this roster could end up looking different but right now and with just the mood around the team and everything um I would put them seventh and I'm looking at the Jets and the Kings and thinking you know I I might have been able to justify dropping the Jets out of the playoffs but again that's not without a bunch of stupid hockey guy comments um I'm going to put Vegas 6th and and I like looking at Vegas's roster and I did the video on Vegas their top six forwards I think they need another top six forward forward I'm not sure how you do that with no cap space um the Blue Line's good though and I think the goal tending is good and for that reason I think if they play some shutdown hockey and if they play a similar style to what the Kings did this past season I still think Vegas probably is top six in the conference I will agree that Vancouver overachieved in that first half of the season but I will disagree that Vancouver is is a fraud and all this I still think Vancouver ends up I fifth in the conference I think is is good I could see that ending up being the way that things go um so yeah Vancouver I would put fifth and then fourth this is where it gets tough I think Nashville's additions definitely going to make them better I don't think it puts them right in that top four as of yet uh the one thing to keep in mind is we always start with zero and I say that because I've seen people say well you know this team finished 30 points behind that one last year and therefore they haven't made a 30o difference but every season's different so you all start at zero so you're not really trying to make up a 30-point difference you're just trying to prove that you're not as bad as you were last year and maybe that team wasn't as good as they were last year and everybody starts at zero but Nashville I'm putting it fourth uh third I'll put Colorado maybe it's maybe it's my hopefulness as a Dallas fan maybe that's what it is that uh that Dallas Can can still be one of the top two teams in the west uh I'm just thinking about it here CU they were I mean obviously really really close do I like Colorado more for first yeah probably I'll put Colorado First in the conference I'll put Edmonton as likely the second best and I'll just say I'll I'll put Dallas in third that pavelski's gone sure put Dallas in third so what you end up with here is uh one and so your top two is your your division winners so it works out pretty well uh you end up with a situation where basically you've got uh uh some pretty interesting and entertaining playoffs so you have Colorado against Seattle in the first round well we know how that turned out in 2023 uh Edmonton against Winnipeg in the first round you're welcome Rogers Sportsnet uh Dallas would play Nashville and Vancouver would play Vegas um these two series here would be absolutely Dynamite I'd be quite happy although people would get upset if this is actually the point standings because then it would be wait a minute Vancouver was worse than Nashville and yet Nashville is going on the road to Dallas um you know if I switch them then then I get Vancouver no I don't man that might have been the dumbest thing I ever thought about doing right there yeah no there's no way I can have Vancouver Dallas in the first round all right I quit uh so we got Florida Detroit in the East the Rangers and and Toronto you're welcome Sports Net uh the Rangers in Toronto would be uh would be insane and and I have to say that if Toronto was a wild card team this year and played against a team from the Metro I'd be happy just for the fact that we get we would get that brand new matchup I think that would be great and who knows maybe it'd be great for Toronto to play against a fresh opponent um and playing in New York you're playing against a team that doesn't have as much pressure as Toronto but it's close uh Carolina would play New Jersey Tampa Bay would play Boston oh look I did it in both conferences yeah the Metro's got three of the top four here the central has three of the top four here but I'm fine with that that doesn't bother me because it is it is July the 13th as I'm recording this and it's just kind of a fun way of looking at it and and you know who we think is going to end up moving up moving out so by my prediction there are two teams in the East that drop out there's one team in the west that drops out that being La so la the capitals and the Islanders have dropping out Seattle Detroit and New Jersey going in nothing too crazy although New Jersey going right back almost to where they were um not this past season I was but the season before uh might be a little overly Rosy and optimistic on my part but it's July why not be Rosy and optimistic it's hot as hell outside so there you go uh let me know your thoughts in the comments section below as always don't forget to hit like And subscribe in the event that you've not done so already thank you guys so much for all your support I will talk to you again soon

Channel: The Hockey Guy

Views: 54,735

Keywords: hockey

Id: hwU0V51uXeQ

Length: 17min 50sec (1070 seconds)

Published: Sat Jul 13 2024